A good rule of thumb is that when investors are confused they transfer to cash. Investors become confused when they get contradictory signals.

  • Signal one ; 10-year yields. They're going up, but not in a smooth orderly line; in fits and starts. Every week we get a 10 basis point jump. This is because every time the Chair of the federal Reserve gets on TV, he let's it be known that he's not just expecting to see inflation above 2%; he's actively trying to get there.
  • Signal two; EU self-sabotaging vaccine efforts. In what can only be described as one of the goofiest screw-ups in political theater, Germany abruptly decided that fringe occurrences of blood clotting - a very preventable event in most since the invention of aspirin - was more important than the lives of people who need the vaccine and their GDP, so they canned the Oxford vaccine. Other weak-kneed leaders followed suit and we get signal three.
  • Signal three; oil collapse Introduce the possibility of EU's vaccination efforts taking a little extra time and voila; oil is back to March 1 prices. Congrats. Go buy it now, because if there's one thing that inflation is really going to set in on, it's oil , and this Vaccine scare is a joke so it's on sale for a bit. Anyhow, this rapid deflationary event is one of those mixed signals. If the bond market is quickly trying to factor in inflation , yet the oil market is trying to factor in a drastic drop in anticipated demand, what gives.

Granted some of those events are foreign while the inflationary anticipation is more domestic, in the broader market - the market that the big money operates in - this is a confusing signal. One piece of the market saying economic activity is ramping up, and the other saying that it's delayed (and JPow saying that he will not settle for anything less than 2% inflation or more).

So what does this mean for you, the lowly SPY trader? Welp, who knows? It really depends on if these two elements of the market both stabilize tomorrow and Powell keeps his mount shut. In the near term, I expect a pretty rapid leg up again, and I don't think $400 is out of the question for the next few days. But I've highlighted the flow ocillator that shows an eerily similar pattern to our last bath. What is different is that the MAC-ZVWAP is much more virulent than it was a few weeks ago, suggesting that any dip would be brief.

If you're looking for advice - which this is not investment advise just entertainment - it would be to be nimble and not be scared to buy if we it the 20 day ema tomorrow morning, but avoid if we reach it in the afternoon. Also don't be afraid to short. Or don't be afraid to sit this one out.


This is a great analysis, with both fundamental and technical elements discussed.

I noted that while we are still in the megaphone chart, we see a dip after every higher high. I do expect us to reach 400 next week but also to see a dip almost right after.

Happy to have your thoughts @PreferredStonk.
+1 Reply
Are we talking Pierce Brosnan vs Daniel Craig?
@ebweint, We most certainly are now. Which do you prefer? I think Craig or Connery to be the best bond.
ebweint PreferredStonk
@PreferredStonk, I'm woke so I'm going with whatever mixed race transgender person ends as the next Bond.

In that case, they're best to go with Andy Serkis in a green screen suit so they can shoot the damn thing and figure out the appearance later.
ebweint PreferredStonk
@PreferredStonk, Focus Bond! Ignore the ring, eyes on the Oddjob!
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