quantguy

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About me Quantitative trader with a background in Math and Physics. Find me on Instagram @quantguy and Twitter @quant_guy
Joined Florida quant_guy
Markets Allocation
51 % stocks 27 % forex 12 % commodities 10 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPY 10% | 9 EURUSD 6% | 6 BTCUSD 4% | 4 CL1! 4% | 4
quantguy quantguy LTCUSD, D, Short ,
LTCUSD: LTC Pulling Back, Still Bearish
350 0 5
LTCUSD, D Short
LTC Pulling Back, Still Bearish

Litecoin is moving in tandem with the rest of the cryptos, pulling back for some air at a Fibonacci level. Notice how both momentum indicators have clearly turned bearish. Short term this is a sell opportunity, as we look to consolidate and form a 'dragon head' pattern. This will present a buying opportunity in the long term. If not, and there is a solid ...

quantguy quantguy BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Pulling Back, Still Selling Pressure
329 0 6
BTCUSD, D Short
Bitcoin Pulling Back, Still Selling Pressure

Bitcoin is seeing a bit of a pullback to shelter at a Fibonacci level, after the bloodbath over the last two days. But momentum still remains overly negative, and I don't think we are out of the woods yet. Short term this is a shorting opportunity, long term it's a heads up to load up when it consolidates.

quantguy quantguy SNAP, 15, Long ,
SNAP: Snapchat IPO: Day 2
187 0 7
SNAP, 15 Long
Snapchat IPO: Day 2

Since this was a high volatility event, I actually drew the following analysis on a one minute chart, but Tradingview won't let me post the idea unless it is on a 15 minute chart or greater, so please excuse the coarseness. First, regarding the Fibonacci levels, the most important thing you can do is anchor them properly, which is as much an art as a science. ...

quantguy quantguy SPY, 240, Short ,
SPY: Bearish Head and Shoulders forming on SPY
75 0 0
SPY, 240 Short
Bearish Head and Shoulders forming on SPY

A combination of lukewarm earnings for Q1 and talks of an impending Federal Reserve interest rate hike seem to be slowing down the bullish recovery we've seen in the S&P the past several weeks. On the technical side, notice the failure to attain a new high. In fact SPY has consistently been unable to break new highs going back to May 2015, when the bear market ...

quantguy quantguy GILD, 60, Long ,
GILD: GILD: The Little Engine that Could
82 1 1
GILD, 60 Long
GILD: The Little Engine that Could

Despite my overall bearish outlook on stocks, Gilead Sciences stands out as the 'Little Engine that Could' in the sense that it keeps chugging along despite being battered by the broader index just after earnings came out late January. On the fundamental side, most analysts think it's way underweight citing that it should be worth as much as 66% more as per the ...

quantguy quantguy SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: All Eyes on FOMC for Equities Positions
52 0 0
SPY, D Short
All Eyes on FOMC for Equities Positions

Data from the U.S. has improved by the barest of margins. The New York Fed Consumer Survey finds inflation expectations rising (by less than 1%) above expectations, and the ECB rate cut means lots of free cash to play with. Keep in mind we have the FOMC meeting coming up and their decisions will determine the direction of the markets for the near term. ...

quantguy quantguy EURUSD, 30, Short ,
EURUSD: ECB Cuts Rates, Expands QE: What this Means for the Euro
88 0 1
EURUSD, 30 Short
ECB Cuts Rates, Expands QE: What this Means for the Euro

I've felt that the Euro dollar has been overvalued ever since the ECB disappointment in December which sent its value soaring. Even Draghi himself noted that was not his intent. With interest rates lower yet again and QE expanded, where is the end? About 25% of the world's GDP producing countries have introduced negative interest rates and this has been the ...

quantguy quantguy GILD, D, Long ,
GILD: Can Gilead Beat the Markets?
30 0 0
GILD, D Long
Can Gilead Beat the Markets?

As of March 3rd, Gilead earned a 'buy' rating from Citigroup as verified by the link. It is true that GILD should have performed better after earnings as has been historically demonstrated, but it took a beating with the overall index but failed to share in the rebound. Personally, I think this is a good thing, for you'll note from my previous post here previous ...

quantguy quantguy CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: Massive Short Covering Rally in Oil: Trade Accordingly
223 0 3
CL1!, D Short
Massive Short Covering Rally in Oil: Trade Accordingly

There's been a massive short covering rally of near historic proportions in oil recently. As the OPEC circus continues to 'cry wolf' regarding freezing production, the market, once overwhelmingly short on the commodity, takes the opportunity to cash out some of its short positions. There is really no fundamental reason for oil to rally so hard as the attached ...

quantguy quantguy SPY, 60, Short ,
SPY: S&P Rally Short Lived
162 0 4
SPY, 60 Short
S&P Rally Short Lived

With the tsunami of data this week, it was really hard to sieve out anything stellar. At best, we had employment data that was above expectation on Wednesday, as well as a moderately improved ISM manufacturing index. PMI and Factory Orders left much to be desired. Central Bankers all over the world are scratching their heads and trying in futility to save face ...

quantguy quantguy SP1!, D, Short ,
SP1!: No End to Bearish News for the S&P
65 0 2
SP1!, D Short
No End to Bearish News for the S&P

Yesterday, Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve spoke confirming expectations that the Fed would sit tight on interest rates. She even admitted today that the Fed is considering negative interest rates. Her ominous tone did not bode well for the markets as evinced by the abysmal market opening today here in the US. In fact, the world's markets are rearing from ...

quantguy quantguy SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: S&P Solidly Bearish
184 1 4
SPY, D Short
S&P Solidly Bearish

Any hopes for a recovery this week were quashed by today's open and marked declines henceforth. There really doesn't seem to be any indication of a turnaround, unless some good data comes out this week, and there is quite a bit to anticipate. As the attached article notes, analysts are cutting their expectations for the S&P, and it would be good advice to any ...

quantguy quantguy EURUSD, W, Short ,
EURUSD: Dark times for the Euro
113 0 3
EURUSD, W Short
Dark times for the Euro

From political instability to ineffectual QE, bullish news for the Euro is scant. We can look for more confirmation from Draghi to this effect soon to come. As far as the technicals are concerned, we have a very strong bearish head and shoulders pattern forming on the weekly chart. There is massive resistance from above via the ichimoku cloud which will make a ...

quantguy quantguy NFLX, D, Short ,
NFLX: Bearish Double Top on Netflix
48 0 0
NFLX, D Short
Bearish Double Top on Netflix

Unfortunately for NFLX on the fundamentals side, they were ousted from Indonesia, which was a prime target for their international expansion endeavors, due to a failure to fulfill their censorship standards. Unfortunately for them, this simply adds to the list of bearish technical indicators despite 'buy' ratings from numerous sources. First, note the bearish ...

quantguy quantguy AAPL, W, Short ,
AAPL: Bearish Head and Shoulders and a Gloomy Outlook for AAPL
190 0 3
AAPL, W Short
Bearish Head and Shoulders and a Gloomy Outlook for AAPL

When Apple was using the Power PC line of processors in their computers, I was extremely skeptical of them. Their operating systems prior to OS X were abysmal. They crashed all the time, and the availability of software for anything I wanted to do was scant. Then they started rolling out Intel processors, and updated OS, and a slew of performance upgrades and I ...

quantguy quantguy CL1!, D, Short ,
CL1!: The Bears are still in full force on Crude
155 0 1
CL1!, D Short
The Bears are still in full force on Crude

There seems to be no shortage of bearish news on Crude oil lately. In fact, today's 'dark cloud cover' candlestick pattern is a bearish rejection of the level formed by Friday's close proves the little rally we saw on 2015-01-22 was merely just a short covering frenzy. Almost all the technicals indicate we are in a solid downtrend. The Aroon indicator is still ...

quantguy quantguy ES1!, D, Long ,
ES1!: Catching the Bounce
124 0 2
ES1!, D Long
Catching the Bounce

We are all aware of the massively bearish outlook on the S&P (ES1!) due to everything from the china crisis to sinking oil prices. But when should one try to cash in on this trend? From experience, its never wise to 'catch a falling piano', i.e. try to predict the rebound, however, if look at levels of support, we may be able to catch a retracement. We are ...

quantguy quantguy DTYL, D, Long ,
DTYL: Green Light on US Treasuries
4 0 0
DTYL, D Long
Green Light on US Treasuries

The China crisis has the world's markets in panic mode. Stocks had the worst first week in history. Currencies are tumultuous and volatile. Its difficult to endorse the Euro for anything more than short term swing trades at best due to their own problems. Commodity currencies are sure to tank, and stocks are too volatile lately in my opinion. One good idea ...

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