The ECB as a weakness
Two possibilities exist for the terrain ahead, one for the continuation or one for the breakdown. This very much amusing position from a markets perspective stems from the initial Eurobonds positional play.
The position is reached as a touchstone for the fact in the thesis. We have already covered the macro and explained the...
If you have active positions, close them!
If you don't have one, don't open it!
This applies to anyone who does not want to take the risk of being active during the news. The Fed's decision on the interest rate will be announced today, and it is expected to give direction to the USD before the November elections.
We expect this to cause serious movements, so if...
Major support at 1900. There has been October/November options flow purchased last week for gold stocks; WPM, GOLD and GLD. FOMC decision is on wednesday and expect more dovishness from JPowell. Longer lower rates, until a vaccine is approved. Trump wants a lower dollar as well, so its all working out for his election needs.
📍 S&P
This illustrates the total downside unlocked in S&P in the 5-3-5 sequence, but also note how unlike the Down the lows are set to hold. An innovation play. Tech avoids the development of destruction because 2,368 looks pinned and unavoidable for a test. As you can see the small caps => mid caps => large caps as usual in the end game flows.
Dow:
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Buyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx.
It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the...
📌 The best move, since the idea of Eurobonds and an early development of the rally is to continue working against structural dollar weakness. The +/- 200 tick pullback from 1.20xx highs in EURUSD to current levels is an attractive level for us to start adding bullish exposure.
As will become clear, buyers are in full control on the macro direction and sharp...
Heading into the office this morning to find Cryptos stronger after a holiday weekend. BTCUSD is now less focused on risk and finding more USD devaluation players getting involved. With all of the weaker summer seasonalities behind us, it is pragmatic for players to look for value in scarcity.
The long-term macro chart constitutes a formidable comfort; the...
📌 What we are trading here is an event risk play.
This swing illustrated combining both ADP and NFP prints. It is also characteristic for the fearlessness with which USD sellers can to a certain point neglect their own weakness.
The loonie with some broad based USD profit taking as widely expected after clearing initial targets. I am looking to recycle USDCAD...
📌 In spite of the summer lull, EURUSD continue to hold and buyers are threatening to win the 1.20xx handles. Sharp speculators understood the powerful attacking force of debt mutualisation, but the icing on the cake comes from Fed artificially flushing USD.
The king continues its march lower.
To maintain the buy side in EURUSD is pragmatic. Any direct...
EUR/CAD Cup & Handle Formation...!
As I am sure you are aware, from the previous posts I've written and I will say it again: longer time frame indicators short time frame movement.
I am long term bullish on EUR, since around 1.13 half to 1.14 areas.. By seeing this formation, makes me even bullish, but I want to get in at a cheap price, because that's what...
Hello, today is an extremely important day. We are waiting for the press conference of Jerome H. Powell and the movements he will provoke.
One option that looks good is USDCHF. Here we have a break of the downward trend and then the development of a triangle. This triangle will most likely be broken today! We expect to see a rise, as trades are recommended...
A quick update here for those tracking the entire swing in Dollar:
It would be more natural to develop in this structure with a test of 99, since the impulsive sequence (if it is such) must eventually test 92.92 to complete the move. To keep up the pressure on USD the social focus will instead switch towards Atlanta and health focus on virus cases which sadly...
📌 A short update here for those tracking USDKRW ... It has been a very slippery pig since the last update:
Here buyers stormed into control and chose to occupy the bid protecting 1140 via Covid flows. The relieving of this profit taking has become a bit more enterprising possibly via the idiosyncratic spike in cases for the U.S.
The next moves are cooked...
For this one we are talking about an extremely disruptive swing that will continue to cause high beta FX outflows in the immediate term. The nice problem we have on our hands with this, is that we are now entering into a new long-term bullish trend for AUDUSD. So we 'know' this pullback will have a minimum flow towards the 0.650x handle before bulls have to deal...
📌 The buyers constitute a formidable opponent holding the breakup and putting sellers out of action. The moves are ready, to fend off another wave of risk looks impossible now and Turkey will suffer a major hammer that may be unendurable for local banks. A break above 7.20xx will unlock the widely track 7.80xx since last year.
If buyers hold (and it looks...
