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ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.06.15

FOREXCOM:AUDUSD   Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar
For this one we are talking about an extremely disruptive swing that will continue to cause high beta FX outflows in the immediate term. The nice problem we have on our hands with this, is that we are now entering into a new long-term bullish trend for AUDUSD . So we 'know' this pullback will have a minimum flow towards the 0.650x handle before bulls have to deal with a completely new decision point.


Since I considered the said bounce from the lows, a complete 5 wave sequence right on time for Fed and called live here, the strategic rule that one must now to cover and protect. In the long run, the positional struggle comes down to a struggle between USD devaluation via FED and restraining tendencies towards high beta fx. In this all embracing dance with risk, though an important strategy in itself is to remember it is only a means to an end.

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Is it still safe to buy AUD, in the long run, considering Australia just walked into a recession after 29 years?
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ridethepig zorrays
Important updates coming here later today @zorrays
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ridethepig ridethepig
Lets get started
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ridethepig ridethepig
Is it still safe to buy AUD, in the long run, considering Australia just walked into a recession after 29 years?

A very good question. Here is a mouthful... We are trading an initial ST consolidation range inside a MT and LT expansive leg. Initially we must clear a tug of war between risk-off flows and stimulus with Commodity shortages entering into play from Q3 and US elections in Q4.

So how will this all affect AUDUSD?

Unlikely that we see AUD benefit (notice the ST consolidation forecast in the macro chart) from pockets of risk-off and further lockdowns. Rather measured moves inside the range for the coming Quarters with risk-off weighing heavy and commodity shortages via Iron Ore, Copper etc and Gold via risk providing the ebb and flow. As you know dollar will still receive plenty of support should we need to take cover under a table from covid flows.
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ridethepig ridethepig
A very quick sketch..

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ridethepig ridethepig
Of course as you would expect a lot clearer picture in the Monthly

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