Australian Dollar Rises as RBA Keeps Hike Risk AliveAUD/USD moved higher on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35% and kept a hawkish bias in place. The pause was expected, but the message was not dovish. Governor Michele Bullock made clear that another hike remains possible if inflation does not keep moving in the right direction. That gave the Australian Dollar support, with traders treating the decision as a hold with teeth rather than a step toward easing.
The U.S. side is now the next test. The U.S. Dollar was steady as markets waited for July CPI, with Fed hike odds cooling after the weaker jobs report but not disappearing. Oil remains a complication after renewed Strait of Hormuz tension, because higher energy prices can keep inflation risk alive for both the Fed and the RBA. For AUD/USD, the setup is straightforward: the Australian Dollar has support from an RBA that is still worried about inflation, but follow-through depends on whether U.S. CPI gives the U.S. Dollar a fresh reason to push back.
AUD/USD is in better shape than it was in late-June and early-July. The pair has rebuilt from the 0.6880 area, reclaimed the 0.7000 handle, and is now holding above the moving-average cluster. That is constructive. The rising trendline from the late-2025 low is still intact, and the July pullback held well above that longer-term support. The chart has repaired enough to shift the short-term bias from “sell the bounce” to “respect the recovery.”
The issue is overhead supply. Price is trading near 0.7065, right into the lower end of the old breakdown zone from June. The next real test is 0.7100/30. That area is where prior support turned into resistance, and it is where the Australian Dollar needs follow-through to prove this is more than a relief rally. Momentum is supportive but not explosive. MACD has turned higher and is back above the zero line, while Slow Stochastics are near the upper end of the range and starting to flatten. That says buyers have control, but the easiest part of the bounce may have already happened. The Australian Dollar Lost Structure Before the RBA TestAUDUSD spent the past week building higher lows, but the recovery never developed into a healthy bullish trend.
Price advanced inside a narrowing wedge, with every new push producing less upside progress. Buyers remained active, but momentum was weakening as the market approached trend resistance.
The break beneath rising support changes the immediate balance.
The timing also matters. The Reserve Bank of Australia currently holds the cash rate at 4.35%, with its next policy decision scheduled for 11 August. Australian annual inflation eased to 3.8% in June but remains above the RBA’s target range, leaving the domestic policy backdrop restrictive rather than clearly supportive of easier conditions.
That should theoretically provide some underlying support for the Australian dollar. The fact that price has still lost its recovery structure suggests the latest decline is not being driven by monetary expectations alone. Buyers may also be struggling against broader U.S. dollar demand and weakening short-term risk appetite.
The primary scenario is a continuation toward the established demand zone. That area generated the strongest bullish response visible on the chart and may attract buyers again. However, a reaction from demand would not automatically restore the bullish structure.
The alternative scenario is a rapid reclaim of the broken trend line. If buyers return inside the wedge and establish another higher high, the breakdown may prove to be a temporary shakeout ahead of the RBA decision.
Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above the broken rising support, followed by renewed higher highs, would invalidate the immediate bearish continuation thesis.
For now, AUDUSD is shifting into a weak bearish trend. Sellers have gained short-term control, while momentum increasingly favours a deeper correction. Confirmation still requires the next recovery attempt to fail beneath former support. AUDNZD: the rate gap that built this rally just inverted📉 AUDNZD — Short swing setup (1D)
THE SETUP
Price has carved lower highs since the June peak near 1.2320 — 1.2265, then 1.2200, then 1.21216 on Jul 28 — and today it lost the 1.2025 shelf that had floored every pullback since April. This is not a chase of the breakdown. It is a limit sell into the retest of that shelf from underneath, at 1.2025–1.2060, with the stop parked above the Jul 28 high. If price never comes back to the level, there is no trade and I will say so.
CONFLUENCES
• Lower highs 1.2320 → 1.2265 → 1.2200 → 1.21216 since the June top
• The 1.2025 shelf that held April–July broke on today's close
• Entry is a limit at a marked broken level, not a chase of the move
• Daily RSI 39.3, under its signal line at 40.9 — bearish, with room before oversold
• Stop is 1.3–1.9x the daily ATR (0.00596) beyond structure, so noise alone will not hit it
• The rate differential behind the entire 1.085 → 1.232 rally has inverted (below)
FUNDAMENTALS
Australian Q2 CPI landed today: trimmed mean 0.8% q/q against 0.9% expected, 3.6% y/y against 3.7%. Westpac — the last of the Big Four still calling an August hike — dropped it within hours, leaving all four majors expecting the RBA on hold through year-end. Across the Tasman, markets price three further RBNZ hikes: two in 2026 and one in Q1 2027. AUD/NZD spent a year climbing on a rate gap that has now closed and begun to run the other way.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% tonight with three dissents in favour of a hike — a hawkish hold. That is a dollar story more than a cross story, but a risk-off tone pressures AUD and NZD together and this cross can chop rather than trend through it.
RISK: this is counter-trend against a 12-month uptrend, which is exactly why the entry is a limit above the market rather than a market sell.
TRADE PLAN
Entry zone: 1.2025 – 1.2060 (limit — price is currently below it)
Stop loss: 1.2135 (above the 1.21216 swing high of Jul 28)
TP1: 1.1850 (−1.0% | 1.6–2.8R depending on fill)
TP2: 1.1800 (−1.4% | 2.1–3.5R)
TP3: 1.1730 (−2.0% | 2.7–4.4R)
Note: 1.1900 is prior structure and will cause friction on the way down — marked on the chart, deliberately not a take-profit.
Invalidation: a daily close above 1.2135 says the lower-high sequence is broken. Idea dead.
Follow for the daily levels — updates posted on this idea as it plays out. 🔔
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan and manage risk. How to Build an FX Watchlist Before Central Bank WeekMany traders look at currency pairs only after the big move has already happened.
But in forex, some of the best preparation happens before the event.
This is why I like building a watchlist around three things:
1. Central bank expectations
2. Yield difference
3. Key technical levels
For June, one of the most interesting pairs to study is AUD/JPY.
This pair is not only a normal currency pair. It shows a battle between two very different economies.
Australia is linked to commodities, inflation pressure, and RBA policy expectations.
Japan is linked to low-yield conditions, yen weakness, BOJ policy risk, and possible intervention concerns.
That makes AUD/JPY useful for learning how macro forces can show up on a chart.
Why AUD/JPY matters
When traders expect Australia to keep rates restrictive while Japan stays cautious, AUD/JPY can stay supported because of carry demand.
But this does not mean traders should blindly buy.
The same pair can reverse sharply if the BOJ becomes more hawkish, if yen short positions unwind, if risk sentiment weakens, or if commodity prices lose strength.
This is why a watchlist is not a prediction.
A watchlist is a preparation tool.
How I would read this pair
First, I check the macro story.
Is the AUD side supported by RBA expectations and commodity sentiment?
Is the JPY side still weak because of yield divergence?
Is there intervention risk near important yen levels?
Then I check the chart.
Is price trending cleanly?
Is price near resistance?
Is there a breakout, retest, or rejection?
Are buyers still defending higher lows?
Where would the idea become invalid?
Simple checklist for AUD/JPY
1. Check the RBA and BOJ calendar.
2. Watch whether the yen is weakening or recovering.
3. Mark the main support and resistance zones.
4. Avoid entering directly before major central bank news.
5. Wait for price confirmation after the event.
6. Respect invalidation because FX can move sharply during policy surprises.
The main lesson is simple:
Do not trade only because an event is coming.
Use the event to prepare.
Use the chart to confirm.
Use risk management to survive being wrong.
AUD/JPY can be a strong learning example because it combines macro, policy divergence, risk sentiment, and technical structure in one chart.
Do you build an FX watchlist before central bank decisions, or do you only react after the move starts?
Share your view below. Aussie shows bearish pattern, while RBA can be on holdAussie is seeing a pretty strong turn from the high, so it’s possible that we already saw the top of wave five. Notice that price broke below the trend line support of that bullish channel, which makes us think that wave five may already be completed and that we could see much deeper weakness later on. In fact, we see an impulsive drop from the highs, so we may now be stepping into a higher degree A B C decline, meaning that after B wave rise, pair could see much more weakness. Plus, we have seen a weekly close around 0.7136 level, which seems like important confirmation that the trend is reversing, which after all has been expected because of the higher degree completed 5-wave structure visible on the daily chart.
Resistance on rallies is at 0.7180-0.7200.
One of the reasons for a potential deeper pullback on Aussie is also the unexpected rise in unemployment and lower than expected CPI, which means RBA can stay on hold for now, especially since they have already hiked three times this year.
Grega Is the GBP/AUD Rally Exposing Australia’s Economic Flaws?Macroeconomics and Economics
The GBP/AUD exchange rate currently trades around 1.88 in early June 2026. The pair rallied roughly 1% over the week ending May 29, 2026, despite the Australian dollar’s underlying rate differential support. The setup creates a nuanced picture rather than a one-way bearish AUD story.
Australian inflation is moderating, not collapsing. April 2026 CPI came in at 4.2% YoY, down from 4.6% in March. Trimmed mean inflation, the RBA’s preferred underlying measure, ticked up slightly to 3.4%.
Markets cooled their RBA rate hike expectations after labour market data weakened. Unemployment jumped from 4.3% to 4.5% in April. Employment fell 18,600.
Furthermore, markets revised down the probability of further 2026 hikes from near 100% to 65%. However, the RBA baseline forecast assumes the cash rate rises to 4.7% by end-2026, up from 4.2% in February. The fading hike bets weigh on AUD short-term, but the structural rate gap still favors Australia. BoE rate sits at 3.75% versus RBA at 4.10%, providing AUD a 35 basis point structural advantage.
Geopolitics and Geostrategy
Global geopolitics actively redefine the GBP/AUD trajectory. Australia relies heavily on stable geostrategic relations in the Indo-Pacific. The US-Israel conflict with Iran (began February 28, 2026) drove sharp increases in global oil and LNG prices.
China industrial production grew just 4.1% year-on-year in April 2026. The print marks the softest since July 2023. China retail sales barely grew at 0.2% YoY, while year-to-date fixed asset investment fell to -1.6%.
Economic weakness in Beijing directly damages Australian trade flows. Iron ore and coal demand remains under pressure from sluggish Chinese construction and manufacturing.
Meanwhile, the UK strengthens its post-Brexit financial ties with Asia. British policymakers leverage the Indo-Pacific pivot to bolster sterling. The UK-Poland defense and security treaty signed in late May 2026 highlights the broader UK geopolitical realignment. Geopolitical friction continues to disrupt traditional commodity supply chains while creating new sterling demand vectors.
Industry Trends and Business Models
Shifting industry trends mandate complete overhauls of traditional business models. Australian mining conglomerates face a harsh new reality from Chinese demand softness. Sluggish Chinese construction forces them to abandon volume-based models.
Leading firms now pivot toward highly specialized mineral extraction. BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue face margin compression on iron ore. Management and leadership teams must execute these strategic shifts flawlessly.
A failure to adapt destroys shareholder value immediately. Conversely, UK financial institutions capitalize on cross-border volatility.
Furthermore, London-based fintech startups deploy agile, algorithm-driven business models. They efficiently process massive forex volumes as the GBP/AUD fluctuates within the 1.8561-1.9354 three-month range. Innovative corporate cultures allow these British firms to dominate currency markets. The three-month average for GBP/AUD sits at 1.8935.
Science, High-Tech, and Patent Analysis
Science and high-tech advancements increasingly dictate long-term currency strength. Australia aggressively expands its green energy technology sectors. Researchers file numerous patents for advanced battery storage and extraction methods.
Robust patent analysis highlights Australia’s shift away from fossil fuel dependency. High-tech innovations attempt to offset the current commodity export slump from China.
Meanwhile, the UK heavily invests in proprietary financial technologies. British developers patent sophisticated quantum trading algorithms.
Moreover, the scientific breakthroughs provide institutional traders with massive execution advantages. The integration of high-tech systems fundamentally modernizes the entire forex landscape. Cambridge Currencies forecasts GBP/AUD to trade between $1.88 and $2.04 in 2026, with a base case of $1.91-$1.95.
Cybersecurity and Technology
Surging forex volatility demands absolute reliance on elite cybersecurity. Institutional investors execute billions in GBP/AUD trades daily. Malicious actors constantly target these critical financial networks.
Consequently, banking technology must deploy uncompromising cryptographic defenses. The recent CVE-2026-0300 PAN-OS firewall zero-day highlighted ongoing infrastructure vulnerabilities across major banking networks.
Exchanges now utilize advanced blockchain protocols to secure transaction data. A single cyber breach could trigger catastrophic market panic.
Furthermore, technology acts as the vital backbone of the global currency market. Financial institutions mandate strict cybersecurity protocols to protect client capital. The technological arms race ensures market integrity during extreme currency fluctuations.
Catalysts and Risks
Investors should monitor key catalysts and risks:
* Australian Q2 CPI data (expected to confirm peak)
* RBA July rate decision (market priced 65% probability for further hikes)
* BoE forward guidance through Q3 2026
* China stimulus measures and PMI trajectory
* Iron ore and coal commodity prices
* Iran war ceasefire stability and energy price impact
* UK fiscal announcements and political stability
* US-China trade framework execution
Conclusion
The GBP/AUD pair currently trades around 1.88, broadly range-bound between 1.86 and 1.94. The 35 bps RBA-BoE rate differential structurally favors the Australian dollar, even as fading hike bets create short-term GBP support. Australia’s elevated 4.2% inflation and 4.10% cash rate create a more competitive currency than the article narrative might suggest.
However, weakening Chinese demand, rising Australian unemployment, and the Iran war’s commodity disruption complicate the outlook. Cambridge Currencies projects a 2026 trading range of $1.88-$2.04 with a base case of $1.91-$1.95. Investors should treat GBP/AUD as a tactical range trade rather than a directional momentum play through 2026. AUD/USD Weekly - clear of all EMAs, 0.67 now the lineAUD/USD has broken out of the multi-year downtrend that defined it since the 2021 high. Price is trading around 0.7163, sitting above all three weekly EMAs for the first time in a sustained way: the 50 at 0.6839, the 100 at 0.6722 and the 200 at 0.6739. When price clears a tightly clustered EMA band like that and holds, the prior ceiling tends to flip into the floor.
The move came off the early-2025 low near 0.63 and has carried roughly nine big figures without a major weekly reversal. The 0.67 zone, which capped every rally for years, is the level that now matters on the downside. While weekly closes hold above it, the structure stays constructive.
Momentum supports the move but is not stretched here. Weekly RSI is at 62, having cooled from a push near 77 a few weeks ago. That reset while price held up is the healthier version of a trend, not the exhausted version.
Levels I am watching: immediate resistance at this week's 0.719 high, then the 2023 pivot supply around 0.74 to 0.75. Support steps down at 0.685 near the 50 EMA, then 0.67. A weekly close back under 0.67 would negate the breakout and put the old range back in play.
Bias: Bullish while above 0.67. Type: Analysis.
For AU traders, size to the stop under the ASIC 30:1 retail cap rather than to available leverage. A free position-size calculator with the cap baked in SatoshiMacro tools section. Soft Australian CPI Sends AUD; EURAUD Ready To RiseGETTEX:AUD CPI came at 4.2%, down from 4.6% previously and below 4.4% expectations, which should keep the RBA on hold for now, especially if we consider that the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped last week. In fact, the RBA already hiked rates three times this year, so it surely looks like an appropriate time to slow down further tightening, and this is something that can keep AUD capped below resistance.
For that reason, it’s worth watching EURAUD for more upside, especially after ECB members recently hinted that there is still plenty of room for a June rate hike, with some even suggesting that this could still happen even if a US Iran deal is reached.
But AUD is not dropping only against EUR. It’s now finally turning lower against NZD as well after the RBNZ kept rates unchanged at 2.25%, but delivered a much more hawkish tone than earlier this year. They want to see more data, but inflation concerns are now taking priority over weak growth, so rate cuts are likely off the table for now.
Looking at the EURAUD wave count, we can see a nice five wave rise followed by a three wave pullback, and now another rally that is trying to break above the channel resistance. This looks like a bullish formation for a third leg higher, meaning we could see a move beyond the previous wave A or wave one high while the mid May low remains untouched.
Trade well. Aussie Jumps as Trade Relief Boosts Risk AppetiteAUD/USD rose by 0.6% on Wednesday, May 20 as the Australian Dollar benefited from a broad improvement in global risk sentiment tied to stabilizing trade relations between the United States, China, and the European Union. Markets responded positively to signs that tariff tensions may be easing and that supply-chain pressures tied to industrials, semiconductors, and commodities could stabilize in the months ahead. For Australia, whose economy remains deeply linked to Chinese demand and global trade flows, the shift supported commodity-sensitive currencies and helped drive renewed buying interest in the Aussie.
On the U.S. side, the greenback softened modestly as Treasury yields stabilized and investors rotated back toward higher-beta currencies following several weeks of defensive positioning. Australia’s domestic backdrop also remained relatively supportive, with markets continuing to price a cautious but steady Reserve Bank of Australia policy stance as inflation risks tied to energy and housing remain elevated. The result was a strong session for AUD/USD, driven less by domestic economic surprises and more by improving global macro sentiment and easing trade-related stress.
In the above chart, AUD/USD has found support at its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), holding the broad uptrend that’s defined calendar year 2026 thus far. While base metal prices have subsided in recent days, as well as precious metals, the continued yield advantage held by the Australian Dollar thanks to the RBA’s hawkish bias are helping to reinforce the push to the upside. If the next leg higher is beginning, then the lows seen over the past few sessions around 0.7079 should hold. Failure to sustain prices above 0.7150, on the other hand, could open the pair to renewed weakness within the broader range of 0.6900 - 0.7100. Aussie Slips Ahead of RBA as Oil Tensions Boost DollarAUD/USD dropped on Monday ahead of the May Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision as renewed escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher and reignited demand for the liquidity of the U.S. Dollar. The move in oil has reinforced global inflation concerns and lifted U.S. Treasury yields, giving the greenback a bid while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. Despite Australia’s commodity linkage, the broader market tone shifted toward caution, with geopolitical risk driving flows rather than traditional terms-of-trade support.
For the RBA, the backdrop remains increasingly complex. Markets are heading into the next policy decision with expectations for further tightening as inflation remains elevated and energy prices threaten another leg higher. The oil shock is feeding directly into Australia’s inflation outlook, strengthening the case for keeping policy restrictive even as growth risks build. But this is known; overnight index swaps have been fully discounting the RBA’s third rate hike of the year for some time now. The result is a session where AUD/USD weakness reflects global macro pressure rather than a shift in the underlying RBA trajectory.
In the above chart, AUD/USD achieved a fresh closing high for the year by the end of last week. A loss of the 5-day EMA (exponential moving average), coupled with the drop in Slow Stochastics from overbought territory, indicates that a small setback in the context of a broader uptrend is developing. The move above the 2023 high at 0.7158 has previously validated the bull flag breakout, so a loss of that level plus the one-month EMA, which has served as support on a closing basis since April 7, would indicate a more meaningful top is developing. Until such levels are crossed, bulls appear to remain in control. Don’t trade AUDUSD this week until you read thisThe Fed appears to have limited scope to ease, while the RBA is still leaning toward further tightening. In the near term, this could support the Australian dollar from a rate differential perspective.
The balance remains sensitive to incoming U.S. data this week. A stronger than expected payrolls release could reinforce dollar strength and cap AUDUSD upside. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to slow to 73,000, down from 178,000 previously.
On Saturday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted that inflation pressures are not limited to energy or tariff driven sectors but are also evident in services. This possibly reduces the scope for near term rate cuts, keeping U.S. yields supported and limiting downside in the dollar.
In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia is possibly leaning further into tightening. Markets are pricing an 81% probability of a 25-basis point rate increase, which would take the cash rate to 4.35% and mark a third consecutive hike. If the RBA signals that inflation risks are becoming more structural, expectations for additional hikes could build.
For AUDUSD, this possibly creates a clear policy divergence. The Fed is cautious on cuts, while the RBA may still have more work to do. $AUDUSD Third Trendline Touch. Labour Data Today. Buy the STATS!Simple setup. Third trendline touch. RBA meeting Tuesday. Entry mapped.
AUD/USD ran from the January lows to 0.71872, its highest level since February 2023, then sold off all week as institutions took profit. Price has now pulled back cleanly into the ascending trendline for the third time.
The first touch established the line. The second confirmed it. The third is statistically the highest probability bounce point on any trendline.
The fundamental case is real. The RBA hiked 25bps to 3.85% in February, its first hike in over two years.
The March 17 meeting is live. CBA, Westpac, and ANZ are all now forecasting another 25bp hike on Tuesday, which would bring the cash rate back to 4.35%. The driver is Iran war oil inflation. Australian CPI is running at 3.8% and rising, core inflation sits at 3.4%, well above the RBA 2 to 3% target. Rate hike expectations are the strongest fundamental tailwind the AUD has had in years.
Australia is also a major commodity exporter. When oil spikes on Iran war fears, commodity currencies outperform. The AUD benefits from both sides of this conflict, higher commodity prices and a hawkish central bank forced to hike into an inflationary oil shock.
The trendline third touch lands the Friday before the RBA decision. Smart money does not sell AUD into a live rate hike meeting. The setup closes Tuesday.
🟢 Buy Zone (0.69742 area)
Third touch of the ascending trendline at the 0.236 Fibonacci level on the 4-hour chart.
Stop: 0.00114 below entry (0.163%) / $980 position
Qty: 17,543 units
Risk/Reward Ratio: 9.6
Target: +1.566% (0.71094 area / $1,191.93)
Key Levels:
🔑 Current Price: 0.70457
🔑 Buy Zone: ~0.69742
🔑 52-Week Low: 0.69441
🔑 52-Week High: 0.71872
🔑 RBA Current Cash Rate: 3.85%
🔑 RBA March 17 Decision: Live hike expected
🔑 Australia CPI: 3.8% and rising
🎯 Target: 0.71094 (+1.566% / $1,191.93)
⚠️ Hard Stop: 0.00114 below entry
Third trendline touch. RBA hike on Tuesday. Three reasons to be long right here.
If you found this analysis valuable, hit the Follow button at the top of the page. Every idea in this Iran war series is being updated in real time as the conflict develops. You don't want to miss what's coming next. RBA hike interest rateThe RBA delivered its second consecutive rate hike as recent inflation rebounds amid a robust labor market and resilient economic growth. The 5-4 split vote underscores a tightening bias among policymakers. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions exert upward pressure on Australian inflation, where surging energy prices threaten a 5% peak this year, likely prompting further RBA tightening. As the first major central bank to pivot hawkishly, the RBA has added further strength to the Aussie dollar.
Technically, AUDUSD remains rangebound with price action oscillating around flattening EMAs, indicating consolidation. Following the meeting results, AUDUSD may soften to test support at 0.7032.
If AUDUSD maintains this level, the price could rebound toward 0.7088 resistance, with potential extension to 0.7134.
Conversely, a break below 0.7032 could drive AUDUSD toward the lower trendline support near 0.6988.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness Aussie targets 0.72 trifecta cluster as geopolitical fears easeThe Australian dollar is staging a rally after defending the 0.7000 psychological support following a dip below it on an intraday basis for 5 consecutive sessions. With global risk sentiment snapping back amid US President Trump commeents that the Iran excursion is nearing completion, the commodity-linked Aussie has caught a bid.
Our technical forecast from last month is playing out perfectly:
We are now tracking a critical "Trifecta" resistance zone at 0.7200 ahead of the upcoming RBA meeting next week, 17 March.
Key topics covered
- Risk-on reversal : President Trump’s comments sparked a massive dump in oil prices and revived global risk appetite, sending proxy assets like the Aussie surging.
- RBA repricing: Following last month's surprise hike to combat sticky services inflation, markets are repricing the upcoming March 17 meeting. Driven by the recent inflationary energy shock, the odds of another rate hike have jumped from zero to 27%.
- The 0.7200 "Trifecta" level : We break down the massive technical cluster awaiting the pair at 0.7200 psychological level. This level aligns the 100% Fibonacci extension of Waves 1 and 2 with the 61.8% macro Fibonacci retracement, making it a wall of resistance.
- Double RSI divergence : The current push above the 0.7150 peak is highly likely to form a double bearish divergence on the daily RSI, signalling momentum exhaustion and a looming Wave 4 pullback.
AUD/USD scenarios & trade plan
- Bullish (short-term continuation): The path of least resistance remains to the upside. The immediate objective is clearing the prior 0.7150 peak and extending into the 0.7200 magnet zone. For buyers who entered near the 0.6900 or 0.7000 supports, the 0.7200 cluster serves as a major take-profit area.
- Bearish reversal: If prices hit 0.7200 and print a double RSI divergence, expect a sharp rejection. A deep Wave 4 correction could drag prices back down to retest the 0.6900 support. If the sell-off extends and breaks below 0.6720, it invalidates the broader bullish impulse, suggesting the entire rally was merely an ABC correction.
Are you riding the Aussie rally to 0.7200 or waiting to short the divergence? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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