Dax daily: 26 Jun 2019 We welcome all to a mid-week analysis. The support level at 12 191 we mentioned yesterday functioned perfectly as this was retested right after the open. Contrary, the resistance zone of 12 230 didn't have much significance. Dax found some bearish pressures at a higher price of 12 266 and following was a downside move to a very near intra-day low.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 282
Support: 12 120, 12 049
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 83%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
For today, our major key for establishing the price projection is the high statistical probability for the breakout of yesterday's low. Hence all sell positions have a clearly defined target. Another target to keep an eye on is the support level around 12 120 where we hope to find some buyers.
Probability
Dax daily: 25 Jun 2019 Yesterday's session met our expectations. We've had a very high probability for breaking Friday's low, which eventually happened. Dax was steadily in a slight downtrend for the whole session and the price closed near the support level of 12 219. Today, Dax opened below this zone with a descending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 230
Support: 12 191, 12 120
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Today we expect the entrance of buyers right at 12 191, which is now being retested. We target closing the gap too. If there are no buyers at 12 191, the momentum could escalate towards 12 120. Should the market participants stay within yesterday's range, the price action is likely to slow down or oscillate within that range.
Dax daily: 11 Jun 2019 Yesterday, we expected a retest of 12 139 and the drop towards the trend line. Dax did not reach all the way towards the resistance zone, but the return to 12 046 level worked well. The market met both of our indications – the support zone of 12 046 and the trend line. Bulls were not strong enough in the afternoon session and the price closed slightly negative at 12 084.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 139
Support: 12 046
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability to close the gap is only 38%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
The price opened with an ascending gap sized 50 points, right at the mentioned resistance level. The statistical probabilities incline the gap closure is unlikely for today’s session and this indicates a bullish bias. Should the uptrend be formed and confirmed, we estimate the price is to reach 12 207 level.
Dax daily: 10 Jun 2019 Welcome everybody to a new trading week. Friday’s session started according to our expectation by closing the gap and the price went slowly up. At 2:30 pm we’ve had the US Non-Farm Payrolls release which caused a couple of volatile candles. Later in the afternoon session, Dax significantly slowed down as participants closed the week with the NFP moves. Today, the price opens with an ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 139
Support: 12 046, trend line
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
Today, we could retest the resistance at 12 139 where we hope to find some sellers correcting the price back to retest the 12 046 level. If the resistance at 12 139 isn’t strong enough and buyers prove their bullish momentum, it is likely to retest the price zone of 12 207. If sellers don’t find enough reasons to be aggressive right from the 12 046 level, their appearance might be felt somewhere around the nice trend line.
KNC/BTC - major pump incoming?!KNC/BTC looks to be setting up for an explosion. Not a bad idea to long here with s/l below the bottom blue line. Moon target seems probable.
Target 1: 0.00008250
Target 2 (moon target): 0.00013100
Blue triangle indicates the current range.
Green box is buy.
Red box is sell.
Blue line indicates major resistance.
This is a log chart.
NZDJPY: Opportunities approachingIn this screencast, I show how shorting on a 2H time frame is optimal for me to take a controlled loss. I explain where I see the big trends and some smaller trends.
Note that this is not a prediction, or recommendation to short. I use a very different methodology which is not 'just on the charts', though at times in simplifying things it may appear like a 'chart thing'.
EU Last push to the downsideEU broke a huge consolidation area and that can be seen with the broken counter channel. Price is now retesting that breakout and could possibly fall further to make new LLs and LHs at 1.12000. with that being said, be careful of the potential double bottom for a new rally to the upside.
Follow risk/money management, there is plenty of time to become millionaire.
$FB Mr.Zuckerg I gotta good feeling about you. FB looking bullish here entered long position on bounce off 164.14 support. Targets 1 2 and 3 highlighted in green. Need to see how price reacts at 171 level. Break of that level for continued bullishness and 188 target. If rejected at 171 level may see retest of 152 level.
Bearish scenerio although is double rejection at 171.40 area. High probability of gap getting filled at 152 before any further bullish actions.
I personally am long. Let us see what is decided.
More of the useful statisticsOver the last 5 years, there have been 9 independent observations where the S&P 500 Stocks at 10-Day Highs Minus Lows crossed below the level of 300.
After 5 days, the S&P 500 returned an average of 0.97%, with the return being positive in 89% of the observations.
Tuesday 22nd >> Tuesday 29th
USDCAD Potential Breakout to 1.33 Levels? ~ Probability: HighAfter moving sideways for the past couple days, finally momentum has increased and a potential breakout back to 1.33 levels are probable. Otherwise a heavy rejection from the Orange range will continue to pull us further downwards following the Red Arrow to the lower 1.32350 support.
BTC USD LongGiven the recent drop in bitcoin price many would be skeptical to buy. However that's not what traders should be doing in my opinion and here is my reasoning why: Bitcoin had reached this price level before mainstream investors heard about the explosive rise on it's price, this means people who actually knew about bitcoin fundamentals were getting on board with the rally and were thinking this price was justified. As more and more people began to hear about this currency being on a long-lasting bull market the price began to rise exponentially creating a bobble. Now with a drop of 80% bitcoin has surpassed the the mean of a bull market by a large mark. Although I don't know the standard deviation of bull markets I think it's safe to say it's at least 1 standard deviation away from the mean. Therefore Bitcoin would be in a range of which P(x) = 0.3 therefore there is a 70% probability price will begin to reverse soon, although right now the entry is quite risky and waiting for a better price is advised
The Loonie in troubleIn this screencast I show how waiting for a key position in the market is good idea. As I always say, 'Stalk 90% trade 10%'.
The CAD - often referred to as 'the Loonie' (not by me) has been in some trouble across many currency pairs. I'm not interested 'why'. All I care is where the trend is going and key areas of opportunity and probability.
As strange as it sounds, not trading is actually a winning strategy. So for newtraders especially, don't feel that if you're not in a trade that you're missing something. You are actually wise.
DASHUSD LONG POST ANALYSIS DASHUSD POST ANALYSIS
I had posted a trade idea on DASHUSD on August 27th stating that I believed there was a good potential long opportunity approaching in the market. If you look at the daily time frame on DASHUSD you can see that there was a very strong push by the buyers on August 27th and that had immediately caught my attention. Remember that the #1 sign of REVERSAL is POWER so when you see such a strong push by either a buyer or seller, especially on such a significant time frame KEEP AN EYE OUT, there may be something the market is trying to tell you.
On this trade it was a pretty simple setup. The chart that I'm posting for my post-analysis was the approach I took. Price had just POPPED through structure on the 4H with such strong momentum causing a breach of that structure. I waited to make sure price was going to hold above it so it wasn't a fake-out, and based on the momentum I had a feeling that it was going too. I waited for the pullback back into structure by the sellers, waited for buyer interest again around the 175 levels, I got it and it was good to go from there! Target was hit at 215 price level!
I always make sure to keep all of my trades simple. I approach the market with every trade being a high probable trade setup and also a business decision. I decided that this pair was at a good price along with momentum and I decided to take the opportunity. Remember that everybody is different in trading. My style might not fit your style but I hope it can add some value to your trading!
Please like and follow my page to get more trade ideas here on TradingView! Cheers! On to the next one!
BTCUSD POTENTIAL LONG (short term opportunity) 1H BTCUSD POTENTIAL LONG
1D Chart:
* price is sitting at a recent significant structure level
*buyer seems to be showing slight interest already at this level
4H Chart:
*Price shows large green(buyer) candle to the upside at this level of structure
*Price ended with a higher high higher close on 4H candle WITH momentum
1H Chart:
*Price had LARGE buyer push to the upside
*Price broke a recent level of structure to the upside
*Buyers are showing strong interest in Bitcoin at the price 6100
Entry:
* Look to enter IF we see a weak pullback from the sellers. We want a weak pullback because in trading it comes down to probability and if the sellers came in strong it wouldn't be a clear probable setup on the buy side.
*Wait for buyer to show interest again at price around the structure point 6250-6200 also the 50-61.8% fib if you trade with Fibonacci levels.
Targets: 6580, 6700, 6900
Stop: 6000 price point
REMEMBER this is a short term outlook. This does NOT mean that Bitcoin will for sure rise. This analysis is based on momentum, structure, and probability of the pullback(which hasn't happened yet). Make sure with every trade to stay disciplined with what you like trading and with proper risk management.
Never risk more than 2% of capital. Make sure to always have a good risk/reward.
Cheers!
Fast Money: "I" is probably a shortlooking very triangular. should be springing out... by guess is a spring down. Comment if you disagree.






















