EURUSD 50/50 market Tight Trading Range Continues

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The bulls reversed the market up in two small legs (Jun 3, Jun 24) from the nested wedge bottom. Last week formed a second entry for a potential larger second leg up where the Jun 24 rally is the first. However this has not yet triggered and today is currently a bear bar near the low of last week. If this week closes as a bear bar, it will be a weaker buy setup and decrease the probability.

The bulls did not get strong consecutive bars. Instead prices mostly overlapped with heavy two sided trading. This is not indicative of a strong new low. The probability remains unchanged in a 50/50 market. Any breakout up or down is likely to get sucked back before succeeding. Until there is a breakout, there is no breakout and neither side is in control. The bears may end up getting a larger third leg down comparable to the 24 Sep - Nov 12 and Jan 7 - May 20 legs. This would form a larger wedge bull flag and increase the probability to 60% for a test of the start of the bear channel around the Sep 24 high.

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