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Probability

Trading Psychology 5 Edge ExecutionEdge Execution Trading is a numbers game, and markets are based on the mathematics of the traders equation. However, understanding this alone will not guarantee profits. The ability to apply and conform to the math of the current market context is what leads to consistent profits. Beginners often have a misconecption that they need to know what is going to happen over the period of the next X number of bars in order to make a profit. They believe they must enter at the exact right time and price in order to win on a trade. This could not be further from the truth, and anyone consistenly making money from the markets knows the reality. The reality is a trader does not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit. In fact, a professional trader knows that any given trade is irrelevant to the bigger picture, and an income is generated over a series of trades; not any single trade. This menatlity is past the duality of winning and losing, which are simply accepted as part of the job. This can be called the "probability mindset." Profits are generated over a series of trades, not any single trade. Therefore, it is not necessary to make money on every trade, every day, or even every month to be a succesful trader. It takes time to build confidence, believe this is true and fully understand this concept. Perhaps this is why most traders fail, by giving up before coming to this realization. It has been said that professional traders have "Won the game before they started playing." (Jack Swagger). This confidence can only come from the probability mindset, when a trader accepts he may lose on this trade, the day, or even this year. But he accepts his risk, and trusts the math that over time he will generate a profit. Even if he takes a large loss, or several, it does not matter; he knows he will make it back up. The overall point of this is that losses are part of the trading process. If a trade is a loser, it does not matter; move on to the next trade. Dwelling on losses or a drawdown does not bring the money back, but continuing to trade does. In this sense it can be said that a successful trader "trades his way out of a drawdown." It is helpful to think of losses as the "cost of doing business" just like any other business would incur expenses while conducting its operations. There are very few (if any) businesses that do not require heavy start up costs, or capital to continue the business while generating profits. Ever heard the saying "It takes money to make money?" Trading is no different, although most traders fail to realize this, and focus solely on profits. In trading, our costs are commissions and losses, which are offset by gains, resulting in a net profit. Employing your Edge So what does this have to do with exeucting an edge? Well, it is necessary to understand not every trade is a guranteed success, and there is a random distribution between wins and losses, with any edge. Even the best setup or edge will result in a loss 30-40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to know in advance, which trade will win and which will lose. Therefore it is absolutely imperative to take every trade that meets a traders edge, regardless of how the trader feels, thinks, or any other variables unrelated to the edge. With this said, here are the basic steps to exeucting and employing an edge. 1). Identify edge. Pick a setup (second entry, wedge reversal, follow through bar, ect.) It is a good idea to start with one until familiar with reading prices. 2). Ask yourself at the close of every bar "Is my edge present?" If no, wait. If yes, enter the trade. 3). Execute the edge with a series of 10 or 20 trades, document every trade. At the end of the series analyze results and tweak. Wishing you the best of luck on your trading journey -Josh Ridenour
Education
by tradersmentality
1
BTCUSD Bullish CaseThere is a possibility for a triple bottom and potential reversal. Let's see how this plays out. This is not forecast unlike my other charts, just an idea/possibility that has a realistic chance to come to fruition. People called 4k when we hit 6k bottom and where I bought, people called for 4.8k at 6.45k where I bought, people called for 5k at 6.1k where I bought (few days ago, as seen from my post in other chart), likewise I sold at the tops when people called for moon. So, I feel pretty confident and like to keep all possibilities open and I think 13k is realistic and will be met someday and this third time has the highest chance. If it fails, then we can look at the gold chart how this will look like, which I highly doubt, since big money has not entered yet.
BLong
by CryptoSwindle
10
$5400 Buy Opportunity Tomorrow?! [BUBBLE UPDATE]Hey guys. Update on the old bubble coin. I mean bitcoin <3 Its in free fall again. At least for now. I'm expecteing to buy back in early this week around $5400. Ride it back up on even lower volume and sell off at 7300 territory mid summer. I'm still a believer that we need to retest this major trend line on the log-scale before we can make higher highs. Might be a while but thats just how it is sometimes. Hope everyone inst too hurt. We are riding a bear but we'll tame her. Best of luck and Digibybe > EOS <3 With Love, No_L
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by AdamNo_L
2
Opened Mar29 Apr20 169P 177C double calendar on 3/13/18www.tradingview.com IV rank a little high on this max risk is the debit until the front month expiration debit 2.36 Theta 3.54 Underlying price when opened 173.20 Upper and Lower expected move 167.70 176.90 break evens 167 and 180 gives a little more room above With the break even points being clearly outside of the expected move (per implied volatilty which is often overstated anyway) this trade has a high probability of profit. I will close it before expiration no matter what. www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tom1trader
Fibs and the RSIHello all and welcome once more. While BTC is doing it's thing I want to take some time out to draw your attention to something that you may or may not be aware of... RSI (Relative Strength Index). Now I'm sure most of you know how it works and what it means so i won't waste your precious time giving a run down on that. But did you know the RSI also respects Fib retracements? That's right! Why is this interesting? Because when determining the likely-hood of a movement in a particular direction, a simple trend line or channel won't always give us enough information. Sometimes it can lead us down the wrong path, while we scratch our heads yelling "WHY!!!". By plotting a fib or two over the RSI we can see levels of support or resistance we may not have noticed before, determine the strength a resistance or support has, catch any divergence early as it's easier to see and make better informed decisions overall. I hope you go out and give it a try, it is definitely helpful when you know how to use it! Happy trading :)
Education
by Disaster_Chartist
Probability vs PossibilityThe battle that wages on every market, in every trade... Probability versus Possibility. Now I've seen SO MANY predictions and forecasts lately telling of breakouts, moons and lambos - It's disgusting. Why? Because while ANYTHING can happen (possibility), one must consider the chances of these events occurring (probability) . Now i don't mean to insult your intelligence by defining the words in such a basic means, I'm merely setting an argument. Let's consider Bitcoin for a moment, and where it is currently. IT IS STILL IN A DOWN-CHANNEL. It has NOT broken the resistance as of yet, and every time it's tried since it's fall in December, it has fallen further. Now the healthy channel of recovery is below us, it's baseline sitting in the 7.7K-8.2k zone. The green channel extending from this is the area in which Bitcoin feels comfortable. The most probable course of action is a fall, to either the 9-9.7k area before a reattempt at the resistance, or a straight skydive to the baseline. These two options are far more likely than bitcoin breaking out and seeing a new A-T-H. This is not just trade advice, this is life advice - Please consider the most likely course of actions before investing your hard earned money, before listening to all the hype, before letting yourself be led into disappointment. Now if I am wrong, if Bitcoin breaks the resistance and goes for a climb, you can jump aboard and sail the profitable seas at your leisure with slightly less profit than you could have. If i'm right however, you stand to lose up to 20-40% if you haven't taken the correct means of protection in a small and volatile time period. DON'T let emotion rule your decisions, this is a game of numbers and probability. Whatever you decide, i wish you the best in the coming days :)
by Disaster_Chartist
4