Since our last post, the BTCUSD market went through a corrective phase that brought the price to the mid20k level, the lowest price since the onset of the price discovery phase when the prior ATH was left behind with a bang. It is an exceptionally well-behaved market despite the turmoil that many other DeFi projects incl. stable coins have been going through. It...
Upside vs Downside interchangeably for short or long risk exposure at current flat front CL1! price.
The IV stands at 73%, which is more conservative than the highlighted risk profile. Not a tradable setup; just for reference timeframes when looking for a bias.
The median line, from which the % change is measured, is derived by using the Inside Pitchfork tool;...
Here's a BTCUSD chart with prior ideas highlighted.
After selling to close all of the BTC holdings @ $63.5k, I have been sitting on the sidelines and looking at what is happening in the market. So far, I do not have the urge to re-enter the market and will look for further downside to time my entry.
An exceptional market that should be watched by everyone....
Thought of this as I saw the further-out Dec'22 & Jun'22 6-months spread flipping through the closer Jun'22 & Dec'21 ; the historical examples are given in the chart in green circles.
Seems like oil is looking higher from here as per the indication of the attached chart.
Let us see how this unravels.
BTC was bid up nicely but lost the momentum with a shift to a risk-off attitude in the overall markets. Following this pump and witnessing the second bearish daily candle, it seems the best approach is to fade this recent bullish action and look for targets in the previous lows.
The risk profile highlighted in the chart has a 5R return , and the covered risk...
Further to the earlier idea, we are now seemingly approaching the final extension zone, and with another 15% increase, the odds for mean reversion become much better. The market seems to be in an exciting area and is definitely worth our attention.
Staying tuned for further developments on this one.
Not long ago, BTC exchanged hands at levels above $60k, and now we are seeing it being offered half of that price. This massive decline is the perfect moment for the dip buyers to step in, but caution is advised as this range is new, and an extended chop is probable. I will try to update this once in a while. Let us see how it unfolds.
Further to the last idea on this pair, we are now mapping the next potential wave higher. This wave is very coveted and, consequently, has crippled probability; however, the fractal nature of the post-ATH correctional formation evidenced through the repetitive waves is indeed very fascinating and worth our attention.
DOGE has been nothing short of phenomenal these last few weeks. It has gained over 350% during the previous seven trading days. It is only befitting that it has lost 50% so quickly after such a tremendous extension higher. The chart shows this critical % decrease through the use of Gann box squared at the rate of 0.0035 per 2 hours of trading, the current rate of...
A logarithmic look at the evolution of BTC price since its very early days
The following key takeaways:
BTC tends to extend only about 1/5 of its prior impulse move measured in terms of % increase;
BTC tends to react ≈38.20% on a logarithmic scale to form a correctional bear market;
The sub $80k area is a pivotal area to look for supply inflows.
This pair has shown some resilience to the selling pressure that became evident after touching the sub-60k area. The chart contains all the information that serves as a long signal; nonetheless, it is contingent upon a valid price action once the highlighted key area is reached. Better to avoid sending in the limits to the exchanges, but to consider the 46.8k as a...
The above chart illustrates the performance of different asset classes in % change from Mar'20 low .
The list of included assets is as follows:
For the futures markets, the Jun'21 contracts are used; for DXY, the ICEUS index is used.
As seen in the chart, the best performing commodity is copper, the rise in copper prices is...
Corn seems to be in the final stage of a bullish run here. In terms of % gain, it is almost at the psychological 100% increase area from Mar'20 low. Short risk exposure is becoming more risky at these levels. With another push higher, some decent supply inflows are expected.
Looks like this pair is setting up another impulse move higher — it is building momentum right below the ATH — the further it goes sideways here, the better it is for bullish continuation projection. If the time factor is scaled at the highlighted rate, and if this scale happens to be correct, the target area should be hit by 22 of March 2021.
Bias – bullish
Reference timeframe – 12H
Entry timeframe – 30M
Entry order type – limit
BTCUSD has been working the 30-40k range , with quite a substantial volume traded in the midpoint of that. If bulls manage to absorb the selling in this range, another round of marking up the price is expected. Seems reasonable to be looking for limit...
This is a countertrend setup based on a double top formation coupled with a 50-61.80% retracement of the rejection leg down. The probability works against fading setups but the RR is prioritised for its clear risk profile. The details of the trade are highlighted in the chart. Drop a line in the comments section if there's anything to be added or discussed.
The correctional formation target that was mentioned in the related idea has been met; the highlighted area is now acting as support. It looks like higher timeframes failed to close below this key area; nonetheless, this pair might probe that area as a failure test. In such an event, it is expected that the lower timeframes will turn by printing spring bars. So...