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Probability

How to Calculate Probability in Price So many have asked for tutorials on some quant strategies. So this is my first tutorial for some basic quant trading strategies. This is not really a strategy in and of itself, this is to help you determine realistic price points as part of your overall strategy. You will need Excel to do this. If you like this kind of tutorial/find it helpful, let me know and I can continue posting similar stuff on how to apply some more basic quant strategies into your trading. Take care and trade safe!
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by Steversteves
7
NZDJPY Seasonality Forecast, February 2022Left Chart: This chart finds the historical odds of what two pivot points we have closed between by the end of every February. The distribution of historical closes between any two pivots has a fairly uniform distribution, with 62% of closes between S1 and R1. Odds of closing above R1 is 16% and below S1 is 22%, combined the odds of closing past those pivots is 38% historically. Middle Chart: This chart finds the historical odds that tops have come in between any two pivot points in the month of February. Historically, 67% of highs for the month were above the H1 pivot. Using the Probability Weighted Pivot, the orange dotted line, we get an average high historically around R1. Which translates to 78.436 for this month's pivots. Right Chart: Instead of looking at highs, this chart looks at where we bottom out between any two pivots in the month of February. The low probabilities are also fairly uniform, but the historical probabilities are split 60/40, that is above/below, the S1 pivot. The Probability Weighted Pivot sits above S1 and priced at 74.584, meaning on average the moves to the downside are smaller in the month of February than the moves to the upside for NZDJPY. All together: February is the kind of month where price action can be characterized by initial moves like a high past R1, and a low past S1; and then a reversal back inside of S1 - R1 range to close the month. The main risk is how to trade the month's end. As the distribution of historical closes in February are very uniform. The indicators used are Wayne's Pivots Pro and Pivot Probabilities.
Long
by joebaus
ETHUSD Seasonality Forecast, 52nd WOTYThis is a forecast using two tools I developed, one a trading strategy and the other for seasonal probabilities on a weekly and monthly basis; Wayne's Pivots Pro and Pivot Probabilities . I'll be using these tools to do seasonal analysis on INDEX:ETHUSD , and specifically how it has reacted in prior years in the 52nd week of the year. While seasonality analysis is limited, as in there's only 7 years of data, it is not totally impossible to come away with some useful facts about how INDEX:ETHUSD has behaved during the 52nd week over those 7 years. Nonetheless, the more data in years you have, the more accurate these historical probabilities theoretically become. TD;DR: Historically, ETHUSD has remained range bound between the weekly R1 and S1 pivot in the 52nd week of the year. Breakdown: From Left to Right Closing probabilities (left chart) measure the number of times we have historically closed the period, 52nd week, between any two pivots. We have only closed outside of the weekly R1 to S1 in the 52nd week of the year one time in the last 7 years. This encourages a range bound trade as well, with 85.71% of historical closes between R1 ($4228.23) and S1 ($3826.74). The orange dotted line shows the weighted-sum-mean, using the probabilities as weights against the pivot points to calculate a mean. The weighted mean of closes is at a price of $4086.91, and it is biased above the central pivot as 71.43% of closes are also above the central pivot. (The green and red numbers above R3 and below S3 summarize the total number of probabilities above and below the central pivot.) High probabilities (middle chart) measures the number of times we get a historical high, or top out, between any two pivots. We see 42.86% of historical highs for the 52nd week of the year were above the M4 pivot, at $4310.46 right now; that means it's also true that 57.14% of highs were below M4 ($4310.46) historically. While not quite the odds of a coinflip, 57% above M4 to 43% below M4; because we're working with such a low sample size, we might want to interpret these odds effectively as a 50/50 coinflip. Low probabilities (right chart) measures the number of times we get a historical low, or bottom out, between any two pivots. Most lows occur above S1 this week which is positive for dip buyers. Historically, 71.43% of lows were above S1, and with the weighted mean low priced at $3857. It's reasonable to say it's unlikely based on historical probabilities we go below S1 at $3826.74 this week. Again, however, because of such a low sample size it's never worth putting everything on the line for such a trade. A lower sample size should give you less confidence and more uncertainty about the true seasonal probabilities an asset has. While we can state the current facts with 7 years of data on ETH, there is always more to take into account before pulling the trigger.
INDEX:ETHUSD
by joebaus
BTC POSSIBLE TRAJECTORY & THE ODD OF REACHING 100K BY YEAR ENDProbability of BTC price CLOSING between the assigned range of 100k and 20k by the end of December Additionally presented is a possible trajectory automatically plotted by a decent public script on daily timeframe which aligns to my opinion There is still chance BTC bull can win over 100k threshold (6.78%?), but maybe not by the year end. All the scripts used are complete experimental & opinions are definitely not financial advice Best of Luck
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by QallianceTech
How To Use Risk:Reward Like A ProWhatsup my friends In this video I will be covering my risk:reward model and how I can use it to generate an edge in the market. In this specific backtesting session, I used 0.5:2 risk:reward with TP at 4RR for every trade. I got pretty good results - but remember this is simulated and it's easier to perform better. However, don't take this type of training lightly - this is the best way to improve as a trader. The next step would be to actually start journaling your trades and analyzing everything at a deeper level. I hope you enjoyed this! Cheers Dil
Education
by justlivingmylife
UAA longUAA long Under Armour, Inc. is engaged in the development, marketing and distribution of branded performance apparel, footwear and accessories for men, women and youth. The Company's segments include North America, consisting of the United States and Canada; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA); Asia-Pacific; Latin America, and Connected Fitness. Its products are sold across the world and worn by athletes at all levels, from youth to professional, on playing fields around the globe, as well as by consumers with active lifestyles. The Company sells its branded apparel, footwear and accessories in North America through its wholesale and direct to consumer channels. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had approximately 151 factory house stores in North America primarily located in outlet centers throughout the United States. In addition, the Company distributes its products in North America through third-party logistics providers with primary locations in Canada, New Jersey and Florida
NYSE:UAALong
by fade_the_vol
ATUS pushing the extremesNYSE:ATUS pushing the extremes of the 99.9% probability cone. Bids filled at $17.55. Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move. While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31. In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution. Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return. The area of probability range is based on an inverse normal cumulative distribution function. The inverse cumulative distribution gives the range of price for given input probability. People can adjust the range by adjusting the input probability in the settings. The probability of the entered standard deviation will be shown in the middle when the "show probability" setting is on.
NYSE:ATUSLong
by fade_the_vol
🚨💡BTC: 'Hidden' Death Cross 100% Probability of Correction💡🚨Remove the Noise!! This is pure mathematics, statistics and probability. The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion. Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic cycles must complete and ignoring statistical probability because of over bullish dreams, sentiment or "conviction" is likely the no. 1 fallacy of most traders in all markets. In the following historical analysis, I identify each cross, For contractions, I use the price at the date of the Hidden Death Cross, to the lowest price to determine the price drop percentage. 5 Hidden Death Cross (HDC); 1. 26-Sep-2011: -60% 2. 07-Jul-2014: -73% 3. 28-May-2018: -62% 4. 24-Feb-2020: -61% 5. 30-Aug-2021: -.... - 100% Probability of Market Contraction - Average contraction: 64% Standard Deviation (Confidence); - SD 1 (90%): Max 68% / Min 60% Correction - SD 2 (95%) Max 69% / Min 59% Correction - SD 3 (99%): Max 71% / Min 57% Correction Market expansions are identified from the price at the date of the True Golden Cross, to the highest price to determine the price increase percentage. 4 True Golden Cross (TGC); 1. 16-Jul-2012: +16'890% 2. 20-Jul-2015: +7'192% 3. 29-Apr-2019: +179% 4. 03-Aug-2020: +531% 5. ...... - 100% Probability of Market Expansion Expansion values too variable for significant deviation estimation Conclusion: I am a TA traditionalist, I believe that the price reflects all known / unknown information and that price action reflects human behaviour in reaction to the changing nature of the information to establish the best possible price at that moment in time. Based upon the mathematical analysis of the price action, for example tracking moving averages, we can identify the trends in human behaviour and apply statistical probability to these trends. As can be observed above, the statistical probability of this trend is considerably strong, with a 99% confidence of a drop in the range of 57% to 71% after the Hidden Death Cross that happened the 30th of August 2021. What do you think? yemala
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Yemala
24
Bitcoin 3 Market PhasesIn my experience in the markets, all price action follows 3 main market phases as below: 1) Consolidation: price ranges between two levels and consolidates between that area. 2) Expansion: Price action breaks out of the consolidation with high volatility making rapid impulsive and corrective waves. 3) Trend: The price action finally follows and market has a fixed sentiment where the trend takes place and the main direction of the financial instrument price goes.
Short
by FXwabz
BTC/USD probability correction analisyshello everybody after a small break out from the bottom of the channel, I decided to make some changes to my chart. so I drew a new channel which shows us we had a small change in our momentum, and the new fibo extension indicates new support and resistance level. I expect the price goes to the further targets up to the top of channel, surely we will have some fluctuations in the way, if nothing special won't happen during the week this is my idea. DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZorgOros
BTC/USD 4H hi guys. after the first pump from 29K, the extension fibo got us proper and fine targets till now , we just reach the target and because the distance of the next target from here is a little high I believe we need a proper correction OR a huge amount of money and investing from whales or big institutions, by the way from 29k till here we have about 70 % growth so if the correction scenario happens it would take 38 to 50 percent of it back or less. so I hope you all saved some profit and watch the chart carefully. if the yellow channel (a wedge shape ) will break we have our targets in pink line which any of them could be the reversal potential area. the extension fibo also can help us to find good levels of knots. this idea will attach in the comment section of previous idea
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ZorgOros
BTC probabilityas mentioned in my previous ideas the green upward channel is still valid, I see 2 tension point that are targets for bitcoin which I mentioned them in the chart with ( T ). in my opinion, there is 3 scenario : green: due to the market news and situations in the overall financial market, I believe other markets need a retracement and lately cryptocurrency has had enough news to get attention, also the adaptivity of crypto is increasing day by day, so I believe if any dump or retrace will happen for other markets the smart money will fall into crypto and the green arrow will move into green channel even there is the possibility to break it above. orange: there is a possibility for the price to range between blue and red line this would happen if in close future any fud news will make for BTC and makes doubts in the people mind. RED: this would be the worst scenario which would happen a range market between two red lines and altcoin will suffer if this scenario happens. I don't see any bearish movement, there would be a little retracement for accumulating but no dump for the future, for now, 40 is the basement for BTC.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ZorgOros