Yemala

Yemala

Hi All, See a macro perspective on BTC - 16k to 160k Yes we are in a bear market (in Sep 2021 I called this as happening mid 2022 spot on, proposing 20k, feel free to check my historical posts linked below) At the end of the day, the macro cycle is king - no use trying to guess specific prices or time as these are really hard to guess and likely you will fail...

Yemala

To share awareness for the beauty and history of our art of Technical Analysis of financial markets, in this educational post, I look at the six fundamental principles of Dow Theory, applied to Bitcoin and its current macro/local trends. Dow Theory Principles; 1. Markets Discount Everything 2. The Market has 3 Trends 3. Major Trends have 3 Phases 4. Markets...

10:05

Yemala

In this analysis, we look at the SPX MACD Histogram on the daily, and how a clear trend is present that indicates an imminent market correction. All 4 charts are linked below in case you'd like to take a closer look! The trend is a MACD Histogram; a. Contraction b. Breakout / Warning shot c. Correction Today we are in the middle of the breakout / warning...

Yemala Updated 

To continue awareness our art of Technical Analysis, this idea is an educational post and summary of The Philosophy of Technical Analysis, from Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, by John J. Murphy, 1999, Page 2-5 The Philosophy of Technical Analysis 1. Market Discounts Everything The cornerstone of TA is that anything that can possibly affect...

Yemala

Quick Update: FAANTAM are trading around -0.5% to -1% down in pre-market trading F - Facebook: -0.9% A - Apple: -0.7% A - Amazon: -0.5% N - Netflix: -0.6% T - Tesla: -1% A - Alphabet: -0.5% M - Microsoft: -0.5% Expectations for SPX - Likely negative gap on open at 9:30am EST Things may bounce, but this level of selling pre-market suggests more aggressive...

19:59

Yemala

In this idea, I identify what I call the 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross. They are the the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA. - With 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, this is statistically significant in the macro economic trend of Bitcoin and currently has a with 100% success rate. a. "Hidden Death Cross" consistently delivers a significant...

03:04

Yemala Updated 

Guys, in this update I quickly recap where we left things Friday, having opened right in the target area. Looking to tomorrow and the coming week, some immediate volatility, likely a sell off pre-market, followed by a test of support and bounce to test recent support flipped resistance. Generally this week will be aggressive, but looking at historical trends the...

Yemala

Remove the Noise!! This is pure mathematics, statistics and probability. The 'Hidden' Death Cross & 'True' Golden Cross are the cross of the weekly 50 SMA & 50 EMA, which with 8/8 historical cross cycles completed, consistently (100% of cross cycles) result in a significant market contraction or expansion. Note: I am bullish on BTC, but these macro economic...

08:18

Yemala Updated 

Short-Term & Macro Analysis: In this quick video, I cover this week’s price action, the state of technical indicators and provisional forecast for the coming week on both low & high timeframes considering impacts of the macro economic cycle. In case you want to just quickly glance at the chart, see the key notes and snapshot below. You'll find a summary of each...

Yemala

🚨🌩 SPX 1Hr: Major Bearish Ichimoku Cloud - Avg Drop 10% from ATH / Historical Analysis ⛈🚨 In this analysis, I look at the current SPX 1Hr Ichimoku Cloud vs. recent historical performance. Summary: A Major Bearish Ichimoku Cloud is forming on SPX Hourly. In the last 2 years, only 3 clouds like this have formed like this, each resulting in a significant...

Yemala Updated 

Quick analysis of SPX short term: Clear down breakout from 4Hr 50 EMA , Boll. Bands and Rising Wedge Bulkowski in the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns lists a Bull market Down Breakout as one of the worst performing chart patterns. - 51% chance of no more tan 5% drop (this would see a test of the current Daily 50 EMA This in context with the current 4Hr, Daily,...

Yemala

In this analysis I compare the historic growth/corrections of SPX with the percentage of stocks trading above their own 200 day moving average. Currently the percentage of stocks trading above their own 200 day moving average has peaked in Q1 and has since been declining, whilst at the same time, SPX has been expanding, with multiple and consecutive ATHs. ...

Yemala

The 2 major Expansion Cycles of the 20th Century, both expanded exactly +2509%. & both over exactly 18 Years from ATH Breakout!! In this analysis, I compare the size and duration of the 2 major economic expansions cycles of the 20th Century, identifying the key components of each individual cycle to draw Observations, Parallels and Predictions with the 3rd major...

Yemala

In this analysis, I compare the structure of price action, RSI & MACD Histogram during Q1 & Q2 2021, with the compressed structure during Q3 2021. Key Observations; 1. Q3 2021 appears to be a micro fractal of Q1 & Q2 2021 - This can be observed in price action, RSI & MACD histogram 2. Wyckoff Accumulation / Distribution plays out on all timeframes 3....

Yemala Updated 

100 Years of near Perfect Fibonacci Alignments!! In this analysis, I looked at 2 Trend Based Fibonacci Time Extensions Layered over an Inverse Fibonacci Retracement starting in 1929 and ending in 2027 Observations: 1. There is a 100% chance a break of a Time FIB & Inverse Retracement FIB together result in a recession, and that the Inverse Retracement FIB...

Yemala

The following analysis looks at the 2 major historical crashes: 1929 Wall Street Crash 2000/08 Dotcom Bubble & Subpime Crash I then compare them with where we are today in 2021, and where the market is going for the next decade 2022 - 2032. I take a simple, reductionist approach to look at basic technical analysis / indicator (MACD) factors identifying...

Yemala

Technical Analysis comparing MACD histogram and structure of historical black swan events with today: 2018 - 2022. Each historical Black Swan Event share 3 simple indicators, that are in play today; 1. Incremental pullbacks of increasing % that ultimately lead to the crash 2. MACD histogram micro contractions and macro expansion that ultimately lead to the...

Yemala

As described in chart 1. Market is in blue area, similar to lead up to 1929, 2001 & 2008 crashes 2. Trend line last 6 years suggests next move down will be lower low (this time will be big) 3. MACD suggests increasing volatility since 2016 - next move will be volatile likely with a small volatile move beforehand