How to Filter for Trading CandidatesIntroduction
This post explores how to filter tradable assets using structural and behavioral criteria. While the examples focus on swing trading stocks, the same principles apply across other markets.
A structured selection process helps refine the list of candidates and supports a more consistent approach. The use of filters can reduce the universe of stocks to those that fit the chosen method. For example, in momentum trading, the purpose is to find stocks that have already shown strong movement and may offer continuation opportunities.
There are multiple approaches to selection. This chapter focuses on two practical methods: scan-based filtering and a top-down approach.
Foundational Filters
These basic criteria can be applied across all scans and serve to exclude assets that are illiquid or incompatible with standard execution. The specific thresholds used may depend on personal account size, capital allocation and trading style. This guide focuses on swing trading, where moderate liquidity and price stability are important to ensure consistent fills and manageable risk.
The Sector Relative Strength tool can help show leading sectors versus the S&P 500 Index over the longer term. This optional top-down approach highlights which areas of the market are outperforming and can support manual refinement.
Setup-Based Filters
These examples demonstrate criteria for identifying potential continuation setups following recent momentum. The filters shown are for bullish conditions; for bearish setups, the logic is reversed. For other approaches, such as fading, filters based on excursion/overextension would be applied instead.
Use the Momentum Tracker to visualize when stocks historically met each of these criteria. This helps evaluate the behavior that preceded meaningful setups and refine your filters over time.
Optional Refinement Filters
These filters can help focus the scans further and improve candidate quality.
Candidates can also be sorted based on preference. A common method is to sort by recent volatility, such as ATR%, or distance from the mean price to prioritize price retracement or contraction.
Momentum Scan Example
This sample scan uses normalized momentum to identify new highs in price. The method is standardized and adapts well across different markets. In case the number of candidates is extensive, filters can be more restrictive or additional criteria applied to narrow the selection.
Market Context
Market breadth is the equilibrium between the number of stocks in advance to those in a decline, in other words a method to determine the current market environment. In a positive phase, bullish setups will have improved probabilities and presence, whereas in a bearish phase the opposite would be true. There tends to be a correlation in the market, where stocks often move in line with their sector or the broader index. Being aware of where capital is flowing helps align trades with the broader environment. In case one has an effective scan and review process, much of this assessment is implicitly accounted for.
This guide will not cover these in depth, but there are numerous ways to evaluate market context; such as reviewing index or sector performance, market breadth, and monitoring economic or macro events. The most important part is to be consistent and apply discretion within the chosen process.
Pullback
XAUUSDGold is still trading inside a descending channel, respecting lower highs and lower lows. Currently, price is testing the short-term descending wedge, with a possible pullback into the 3340–3350 resistance zone (highlighted in grey).
As long as price remains below this resistance and the channel trendline, the bias remains bearish, and we could see another leg down toward 3240–3220 in the coming sessions.
Key Points:
Price respecting bearish structure.
Short-term pullback expected into resistance.
Sellers likely to step in below 3350.
Downside targets: 3260 → 3240 → 3220.
Bias: Bearish below 3350
Identifying High-Probability Support: The Power of ConvergenceHello Friends,
Welcome to RK_Chaarts
Today we're going to learn Comprehensive Guide to Identifying Convergent Support Zones
Which are High Probability Support areas. This post is for Educational purpose only.
This detailed analysis will walk you through a step-by-step process of combining multiple technical analysis methods to identify a robust support zone. We'll explore how Elliott Wave theory, Anchored VWAP, EMA200, Fibonacci Retracements, and equality to extensions can coincidentally converge on the same support zone.
Step 1: Elliott Wave Analysis
Begin by identifying the Elliott Wave structure. Look for impulse waves, corrective waves, and the relationships between them. In this example:
- Wave Y is potentially completing near the equality zone (100% to 161.8% extension).
- This level marks a potential reversal point.
Support zone as per Elliott Wave theory Analysis
Step 2: Anchored VWAP Analysis
Apply Anchored VWAP to identify key support levels:
- Plot the VWAP from the last swing low and the second-last swing low.
- Note the convergence of these VWAP levels, which can indicate strong support.
Support zone as per Anchored VWAP Analysis
Step 3: EMA200 Analysis
Add the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to your chart:
- The EMA200 has consistently provided support during previous corrections.
- Note the price approaching this level, increasing the likelihood of a bounce.
Support zone as per 200 Exponantial Moving Average
Step 4: Fibonacci Retracement Analysis
Apply Fibonacci retracements to the previous rally:
- Identify the 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6% retracement levels.
- Note the current fall has already exceeded the 38% retracement.
Support zone as per Fibonacci Retracement Analysis
Step 5: Convergence of Support Zones
Combine the analysis from each step:
- Note the striking convergence of support zones:
- Elliott Wave equality zone (100% to 161.8% extension)
- Anchored VWAP support zone
- EMA200 support level
- Fibonacci retracement zone (50%-61.8%)
Coincidentally all these are providing nearly same Support area (Price zone)
Trading Implications
With the convergence of these multiple analysis methods, you can:
- Identify a high-probability support zone.
- Look for buying opportunities near this zone.
- Monitor price action and market sentiment for confirmation of a reversal.
- Consider scaling into positions or setting limit orders within the support zone.
Important Note: Failure to Hold Support
If the price fails to hold support at this converged zone, it may indicate a stronger bearish trend. In this scenario:
- Be prepared for a potential significant downfall.
- Consider adjusting your trading plan to account for the increased bearish momentum.
- Keep a close eye on price action and market sentiment for further guidance.
By understanding the convergence of these multiple analysis methods and being aware of the potential risks, you'll be better equipped to make informed trading decisions and navigate the markets with confidence.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
False breakoutPrice just hit a major resistance trendline and it couldn't break it out. Also is overbought with RSI 76. It can try again to go higher but I don't think is going to break the trendline any time soon. TP in the 485 zone SL is it breaks up with a weekly candle and closes above the trendline.
Crypto Market Slows Down For A Pullback Within A Bullish TrendGood morning Crypto traders! Cryptocurrencies are coming slightly lower on the intraday basis due to stock market decline yesterday, but we still see them approaching support, so still be aware of a bounce and recovery at the end of the week or maybe next week because of an upcoming weekend. Crypto TOTAL market cap chart can be trading in wave »y« of a complex w-x-y correction in wave 4, unless it's a flat correction, but support is the same at 3.6T – 3.5T area, from where we may see a bullish continuation within wave 5.
US30 at the Turn: Buy Setup from the Pullback ZoneHey friends 👋
Here’s my latest analysis on US30 (Dow Jones). I’m watching a potential pullback into the zone I marked: 44,292 – 44,190. I plan to open a buy position from that range, targeting 44,692 as my take-profit level.
Every single like you send is a huge source of motivation for me to keep sharing these insights. Big thanks to everyone supporting with a tap of appreciation 🙏
THETA – Resistance Rejection, Targeting Accumulation Rang LowTHETA is currently showing signs of rejection at resistance from a lower high, indicating a potential move to the downside. This pullback could drive the price toward the bottom of its current accumulation range, where stronger support may be found.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $0.70 – $0.75
• Take Profit Targets:
o 🥇 $0.95 – $1.00
o 🥈 $1.60 – $1.72
o 🥉 $2.13 – $2.25
• Stop Loss: Below ~$0.50
Pennant Breakout, EUR vs USD, Late July Highs Next?Price on FX:EURUSD has made a Pennant Breakout to the upside!
Next we will want to see a Retest to the Breakout of the Pattern and if successful, should be the Support Bulls need to take Price Higher!
The Late July Highs, last visited on July 27th @ 1.1770, will be the Price Target if the Breakout is Validated and Retest is Successful.
This week there is some heavy hitting news for the USD with CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Thursday and Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing (being forecast more bearish of all news) on Friday.
GBPUSD Approaching Key Psychological Zones!Hey friends 👋
Here’s a fresh GBPUSD analysis I’ve prepared for you. I’m planning to open a **buy** position between **1.32506 – 1.32246**, aiming for a target level of **1.33298**.
Every single like you send my way is a huge source of motivation for me to keep sharing these insights. Big thanks to everyone supporting with a like 🙏
Gold – Eyeing the H4 FVG Before the Next Bull RunPrice has been consolidating within the current Asian range after running last week’s high and today’s daily high. The move into D-H lacked strong momentum, and with a large unfilled H4 Fair Value Gap (3,350–3,372) below, I’m anticipating a retracement to rebalance liquidity before resuming the bullish trend.
Key Notes:
D-H (~3,436) acting as short-term resistance.
Watching for a sweep of D-H to create excess on the DOM, then a potential breakdown toward the H4 FVG.
Bearish path targets: 3,397 → 3,372 → 3,350.
Bullish continuation requires a clean breakout and hold above D-H with volume.
This scenario could set up a stronger bullish leg later in the week, especially if the retracement aligns with London or NY session volatility.
Multi-Timeframe: Range, Accumulation Opportunity on Pullbacks__________________________________________________________________________________
Technical Overview – Summary Points
__________________________________________________________________________________
Overall Momentum: Dominant bullish trend above 4H. Short-term momentum shifts bearish on 2H/1H/30min, warrants caution.
Key Supports: 114,000 USDT (short term), 111,900 USDT (major pivot), 98,200 USDT (structural failure if lost).
Critical Resistances: 115,900 / 118,900 / 119,900 USDT, daily pivot high 122,318 USDT.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Bullish confirmation on most higher timeframes.
ISPD DIV: Behavioural indicators neutral across all frames, no extreme signals (no panic or euphoria).
Volume: Normal overall, with isolated yellow bars signaling recent volatility spikes.
Multi-timeframe: Higher timeframes (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H) remain bullish. Lower timeframes (2H, 1H, 30min, 15min) show short-term downside momentum without systemic panic.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Strategic Summary
__________________________________________________________________________________
Main Bias: Bullish structure so long as 111,900 USDT holds. “Buy-the-dip” on pullbacks, tactical range approach below 115,900 USDT.
Opportunities: Scalping on key supports (113,000–114,000 USDT), accumulation on deep test of 111,900 USDT, adaptive exits at major resistances.
Risks Zones: Clear break of 111,900 USDT opens the way to a deeper corrective move, potentially to 105,000–110,000 USDT.
Macro Catalysts: FED on hold, ETF outflows, ongoing geo/trade war risks, US job stats uncertainties; to be monitored.
Action Plan: Adjust position size to intraday volatility, strict stop-loss below 111,800 USDT, firm monitoring of ETF flows, on-chain trends, and Risk On / Risk Off Indicator .
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
__________________________________________________________________________________
1D - Daily: Bullish trend until 111,900 USDT fails on close. Volume and behaviourals neutral.
12H / 6H / 4H: Range trading dominant. Pivots cluster in 114,700–116,000 USDT.
2H / 1H: Short-term bearish bias (MTFTI Down), increased risk of flush below 113,000 USDT; patience required for exhaustion or seller reversal.
30min / 15min: Volatility up, no behavioural extremes detected. Key watch on breaks below 113,000 USDT.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Confirms bullish bias on higher frames (>4H), momentary loss of bullish momentum on short-term (30min–2H).
Summary: 111,900 USDT is the prime protection node; above = bullish. Below = risk of corrective extension. No current panic detected.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & Bitcoin – Twitter Synthesis & Fundamental Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro: Mixed global sentiment, ongoing US-China trade tensions, persistent geopolitical volatility, equities and crypto under pressure but no systemic break yet. FED in wait-and-see, next big pivot in September.
BTC: Technical & on-chain accumulation at major supports, ETF outflows by retail but institutional accumulation, significant liquidations but no outright panic.
On-chain: 97% of BTC supply in profit, risk of distribution on overextended rallies, STH cost basis support intact ($105–117k zone).
Strategy: Base scenario = buy deep pullbacks, exit prudently at resistance, monitor ETF flows & macro headlines for tactical adjustment.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Practical Conclusion & Recommendations
__________________________________________________________________________________
Underlying trend remains bullish, extension likely if 111,900 USDT holds.
Monitor: volume/sell capitulation, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator, ETF flows.
Maintain strict risk management, adapt tactics to range volatility.
Avoid excessive leverage, keep tactical intraday flexibility as microstructure is volatile.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Watching for Pullback Below $84 in Citigroup (C)Over the past month, Citigroup shares have appreciated 8.58%, outperforming both the Finance sector's 1.91% gain and the S&P 500's 3.92% increase. This relative outperformance may signal strength, but short-term positioning and market structure suggest a potential shift.
Expecting a Sharp Move Below $84 – Option Flow Insight
Despite the recent strength, I anticipate a significant downward move below the $84 level in the upcoming week. This expectation is based on notable option activity detected in the Times & Sales feed, specifically large put orders suggesting bearish positioning.
In response to this setup, I plan to execute a bearish vertical spread, specifically:
Buying the $84 puts
Selling the $80 puts
This strategy limits downside risk while still profiting from a potential retracement.
Fundamental Picture Ahead of Earnings
Citigroup's next earnings release is scheduled for July 15, 2025. The company is expected to report:
EPS of $1.70 (+11.84% YoY)
Revenue of $20.85B (+3.51% YoY)
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts:
EPS of $7.38 (+24.03%)
Revenue of $83.84B (+3.33%)
While these figures suggest healthy growth, it's important to note that recent analyst estimate revisions have been modestly negative, with the EPS estimate decreasing 0.27% over the last 30 days. Citigroup currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a neutral sentiment from analysts.
Valuation Metrics
From a valuation standpoint:
Forward P/E: 10.75, notably below the industry average of 15.02
PEG ratio: 0.61, versus the industry average of 1.26
This indicates that Citigroup is undervalued relative to its peers, especially when considering growth prospects, which could provide some support. However, short-term bearish flows may dominate price action heading into earnings.
Industry Outlook
The Financial - Investment Bank industry, which includes Citigroup, currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, placing it in the top 40% of over 250 industry groups. Historically, industries in the top half outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
The Gold Retrace for Ultimate Entry!looking for price to continue with its pullback to find where exactly support is. Once we see price establish support we should get some type of signal for entry and price can continue with this bullish price action to make new highs. If we get a full 71.8% pullback that should make for a nice bull run. Just need to wait for the confirmations first before reacting cause we might get a lot of chop until then.
What’s EURUSD Telling Us on the 30-Minute Chart?🌅 Good morning, my friends,
EURUSD just made a pullback within the last 30 minutes, so I entered a sell position based on that move.
🎯 Targets:
- TP1: 1.17607
- TP2: 1.17475
- TP3: 1.17174
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.17938
📊 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.00
Your likes and support are what keep me motivated to share these analyses consistently.
Huge thanks to everyone who shows love and appreciation! 🙏
Gold (XAUUSD) – Bias for July 2Yesterday, price broke above the key H4 Lower High zone (3348–3350) with strong bullish momentum.
This breakout suggests a possible shift in the higher timeframe structure — indicating that the market may now be building toward a larger uptrend.
But we don’t chase breakouts — we prepare for the pullback phase .
🔍 What to Watch:
At present, M15 remains in a clean uptrend , fully in sync with the new H4 structure.
This multi-timeframe alignment gives us a clear bullish bias — but not an entry by itself.
We now need to see how price develops the pullback.
The best trades come when structure retraces with clarity — and confirms before continuation.
📍 Key M15 Level to Track:
• 3302 – Current M15 Higher Low
→ If this level holds, we may see a continuation of the uptrend from here.
→ If it breaks, the next potential reversal zone is around 3290 , where demand may reappear.
🎯 Execution Plan:
The trend is now clearly bullish across HTF and LTF.
We will only look for long setups , and only where structure confirms — either at the current HL or at deeper demand zones.
No confirmation = No trade.
No alignment = No edge.
Let price come to you. Our job is not to anticipate, but to align.
📖 From the Mirror Philosophy:
“In trend-following, the edge lies in waiting — not in chasing.
The market will reflect your patience back at you.”
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Author of The Chart Is The Mirror — a structure-first, mindset-grounded book for traders
#Btc Faces Crucial Decision Near Resistance — Bearish DivergeBitcoin is showing repeated rejections from the $110K and $108K zones. Currently, it's moving upward from the $98K area toward resistance, but price action remains compressed between the major trendline support and resistance.
This range-bound structure suggests that a pullback may be imminent, especially as RSI is forming consistent bearish divergence and the MACD is signaling weakness. A liquidity sweep to the downside could occur before a decisive move.
However, if BTC manages to break above the converging trendlines with strong volume, we may see a move toward $110K again for a retest. Watch $106K as an intermediate support. If that fails, further downside may follow.
CAD-JPY Pullback Expected! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CAD-JPY made a retest of
The strong horizontal resistance
Level of 106.083 and as you
Can see the pair is already
Making a local pullback from
The level which sends a clear
Bearish signal to us therefore
We will be expecting a
Further bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUDJPY pull back to FVG then LongAUDJPY Long Setup (Preliminary Plan)
Target Levels:
First Target: 94.300
Second Target: 94.800
Strategy:
Looking for bullish price action (PA) confirmation around the highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Expecting a possible breach of minor resistance on open, which may lead to a push toward the first target at 94.300.
A pullback may follow after the first target is hit.
Notes:
This setup is preliminary and subject to adjustment.
Live price action will be monitored before executing the trade.
Adjustments for Better ReadingsMany traders rely on technical indicators to identify opportunities for profit—that's the whole point of this game. Whether it’s scalping, day trading, swing trading, or shorting the market, most trading decisions are based on indicator readings—be it a single indicator or a combination of several.
But here’s the truth: not all traders truly understand what an indicator is. They don’t grasp its nature—let alone the fact that this nature can be adjusted.
Those who don’t understand how or why an indicator works often find themselves in stressful and uncomfortable situations. It’s no coincidence that we often hear the common phrase: “Only 1% of all traders succeed, while 80% blow their accounts, and the remaining 19% barely break even.”
Why? Because the elite traders understand something most don’t:
Whether an indicator is leading or lagging, it can be customized to behave differently across different timeframes.
These adjustments can be found in the settings section of every indicator.
Let’s take the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which I’ve mentioned in previous ideas. Some of you may have noticed that my RSI plot looks different from yours. That’s because I don’t use the default 14-period RSI, which averages out the last 14 candles.
RSI is naturally lagging by default—but that doesn’t mean it can’t be trusted. In fact, with the right adjustments, that lagging nature can become leading. Learn how to do this. Push yourself. Educate your mind. Master this, and you might just find yourself among the top 1%.
Markets react to signals—signals that are often hidden in plain sight, created by the big players who always leave behind footprints. This is the trader’s true skill: seeing the whole picture.
A good friend once told me: Be a detective.
Now let’s go to the chart.
We clearly see a bearish strength unfolding.
Not only is the 9-period RSI plot trending below the yellow 28-period Weighted Moving Average (WMA), but we also observe a healthy continuation of the downtrend, confirmed by the WMA itself.
Using a 9-period RSI gives faster signals, while the 28 WMA offers smoother confirmations. This combo is applied on the daily timeframe—but every timeframe has its own ideal settings.
Now, when the RSI plot trends above the WMA, this can act as a potential reversal signal or even a confirmation of a trend change, depending on the broader market structure and volume context. It's not just about the crossover—it’s about what follows next. That’s where the detective work begins.
What do we see today?
Looking solely at the daily timeframe, the downtrend seems far from over. But to analyze it professionally, we must wait for the candle of Friday, June 6th, 2025 to close.
Switching to the lower timeframes, we see something interesting—a sort of bullish dominance unfolding during this incomplete trading day. But the real question is: Is it actual dominance?
Let’s break it down:
We have a clearly formed Head & Shoulders pattern.
The bearish Marubozu candle from June 5th made a new lower low (LL).
But—it did not close below the key swing low at 100.718.
Therefore, the Head & Shoulders pattern is not confirmed—it hasn’t broken and closed below that swing level.
So what’s happening in the lower timeframes?
In the 4-hour timeframe, we’re seeing a real-time crossover above the WMA (though the session isn’t closed yet).
In the 1-hour timeframe, the crossover has already occurred.
Now, such a crossover—where the RSI plot moves above the WMA—can often act as an early signal for a reversal, or at the very least, indicate a strong pullback. But don’t take it at face value—context is king. This is why we pair it with other signals like divergence, price action, and volume behavior for confirmation.
Across the 4H, 3H, and 1H timeframes, we’re observing this bullish pullback, yet it’s accompanied by an RSI Hidden Bearish Divergence (see: Macro Noise vs Micro Truth: The Art of Hidden Divergences).
Is this pullback a true reversal?
According to Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) (read: VSA vs BTC: Into a Bearish Scenario or Not?), a new narrative is emerging—but not without contradiction.
Price is climbing, yes.
But bullish volume spikes are declining, supporting our RSI hidden divergence. This volume-price disagreement is a clue.
What will reveal the truth?
Today's closing candle.
If price action (PA) creates a higher high (HH) but RSI creates a lower high (LH) → Bearish Divergence
If RSI makes a HH but PA creates a LH → Hidden Bearish Divergence
And for those of you who truly understand market structure:
The 100.718 level was a buy opportunity to secure profits.
If you caught that—congratulations. You’ve done your homework.
Now, you can sit back, relaxed, and wait for the next signal.
The market is a breathing organism. If you’re in sync with it—you’ll feel it.
And for those who believe there’s more to learn—but are struggling to find answers—there’s no shame in asking questions.
Till next time, take care—and trade wisely.
P.S. RSI plot, WMA, candlestick patterns, and Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)—when combined and used properly—can become a powerful toolset. For those willing to go deeper, they’re more than enough.
USDollar Is Making An Intraday Pullback Within DowntrendGood morning traders! Stocks keep pushing higher along with yields, so it looks like 10Y US Notes could still see lower support levels, and that’s why USdollar is in a bigger intraday correction. What we want to say is that while the 10Y US Notes are still searching for support, the DXY can stay in recovery mode or at least sideways. In the meantime, stocks can easily see even higher levels after NVIDIA surpassed earnings.
Looking at the intraday USDollar Index – DXY chart, we see a leading diagonal formation, so we are tracking now an intraday abc correction before a bearish continuation, thus keep an eye on GAP from May 18 around 101 level that can be filled and may act as a resistance before a bearish continuation.
BTCUSDT 4H – Key Support Test | Bounce or Breakdown?
Bitcoin has been in a clean uptrend for the past few weeks, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. Recently, we’ve seen a pullback that’s now testing a major confluence zone, which makes me lean bullish in the short term.
Here’s what I’m looking at:
1. 200 EMA (4H)
Price is currently testing the 200 EMA, which has acted as dynamic support throughout this uptrend. This is often a key level where bulls step back in after a healthy correction.
2. High Volume Node (102.5K–103.5K)
This area lines up with a visible HVN on the volume profile, suggesting strong previous acceptance and institutional interest. Holding this area implies a potential base for the next leg higher.
3. Retest of Ascending Trendline (Broken)
We’ve broken the minor ascending trendline, but price is now testing horizontal demand + EMA, which could act as the real support. This isn’t invalidating the uptrend structure yet — just a deeper pullback.
4. Demand Zone + Volume Spike (Recent)
The previous demand zone is still valid, and we saw a decent spike in sell volume into support — which could indicate a liquidity sweep or stop hunt, setting up for a reversal.
Trade Setup
📈 Long Setup: Bounce from Confluence Zone
Entry Zone: $102,300 – $103,300
Stop Loss: $101,400 (below HVN + 200 EMA)
Target 1: $106,000
Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5
This setup banks on BTC holding the 200 EMA and key HVN, continuing its overall bullish structure. A clean 4H bullish engulfing or a strong close above $104K would add even more confirmation.
Invalidation Criteria
If BTC closes a full 4H candle below $101,500 with no immediate buyback, I’ll consider the setup invalid and step aside — the next major HVN is around $96K, and I’ll look to long there instead.
BTC is pulling into a beautiful confluence of structure, volume, and dynamic support.
Short-term bearish pressure looks more like a corrective move within a bullish trend.
I’m looking to scale into longs if this zone holds. Tight invalidation and clean structure — great R/R.
Bullish Argument
First real test of 200 EMA since early April — trending markets often bounce here
Consolidation on top of prior demand — this could be a liquidity sweep / fakeout
High-volume support just below price = buyers likely interested here
We still haven't broken any key swing lows, so higher timeframe structure is intact
Bearish Risks to Watch
Trendline break and sustained lower highs = momentum shift
Lack of immediate bounce = could mean support is weakening
Break and close below $101.5K likely opens the door to $96K–$97K next HVN