Fade 112k, buy 109.5/108k on signals__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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BTC is consolidating mid‑range within 104k–116k after a clean rejection below the weekly pivot high (~112k). Intraday momentum tilts bearish while higher timeframes remain range‑bound.
Momentum: 📉 Bearish within a range — sellers active at 111.95–112.15, defensive bids lower.
Key levels:
• Resistances (HTF/MTF) : 111.95–112.15 (weekly), 113.5–114.0 (MTF), 115.5 (gate before 118k/121k).
• Supports (HTF/MTF) : 110.2–110.5 (MTF), 109.3–109.8 (MTF), 107.9–108.1 (HTF).
Volumes: Overall normal; moderate pickup on 1H retests of range edges.
Multi-timeframe signals: 2H–6H point Down; 12H–1D more neutral; LTF (15–30m) show range rebounds — consistent with selling 112k rejections and tactical buys at 109.3–109.8 / 107.9–108.1.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: SELL (mild risk‑off) — aligns with the bearish bias as long as 112k caps price.
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Trading Playbook
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In a range with MTF selling pressure, favor sell‑the‑rip and defensive buys on absorption. 🎯
Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 112k; key invalidation on a strong close >112.5k.
Opportunities:
• Tactical sell : Fade 111.95–112.15 on signal; target 110.5 then 109.6. (Stop >112.5)
• Defensive buy : Bid 109.3–109.8 on wick/absorption; target 111.1 then 111.9. (Stop <109.3)
• Breakout buy : Only above 112.5 on confirmed retest; target 114.0 then 115.5. (Stop ≈112.0)
Risk zones / invalidations:
• A reclaim >112.5 invalidates the sell bias and opens 114k–116k.
• A clean break <109.3 exposes 108.0 then 106.8/104k.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
• Fed: Waller favors a cut vs Kashkari cautious; Beige Book “little change” — dovish tone would favor 112k/114k tests.
• US labor: ADP/claims/ISM Services today — strong surprises can trigger a break of the 110.3–111.3 micro‑range.
• Inflation mix: Oil <$60 (disinflation) but US tariff risks linger — likely keeps us ranging until 114k–116k is reclaimed.
Action plan:
• Short 112k rejection : Entry 111.95–112.15 / Stop 112.6 / TP1 110.5, TP2 109.6, TP3 108.0 → R/R ≈ 2.0–3.0.
• Defensive long 109.5 : Entry 109.3–109.8 / Stop 109.2 / TP1 111.1, TP2 111.9, TP3 112.5 → R/R ≈ 2.0–2.5.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs are range‑bound while MTFs (2H–6H) drift lower; LTFs attempt technical rebounds.
1D/12H: Range 104k–116k intact; 111.95–112.15 capping; 107.9–108.1 as base — below 112k, risk skew toward 110.5 then 109.5.
6H/4H/2H: Lower highs in place; prefer selling retests 111.3–111.6 and 111.95–112.15 toward 110.5/109.5.
1H/30m/15m: Micro‑range 110.3–111.3; long scalps from 110.3–110.6 with confirmation ; moderate volume pickup on edge retests.
Key divergences/confluences: Mild risk‑off + MTF Down = bearish confluence below 112k; absence of extreme volume tempers squeeze risk until 114k–116k triggers.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is dovish‑but‑uncertain while on‑chain points to a digestion range — a setup favoring tactics over trends.
Macro events: Fed split (Waller pro‑cut, Kashkari cautious), Beige Book steady; JOLTS down with ADP/claims/ISM due — directional volatility risk. Oil <$60 and soft Swiss CPI = disinflation, but US tariffs keep inflation risks alive.
Bitcoin analysis: Broke below daily Ichimoku and retested as resistance; hesitation under a double‑top neckline; 30‑day realized vol low = uncertainty without panic. US spot ETF net inflows +$300.5M (Sept 3) with muted price response.
On-chain data: Accumulation 108k–116k (URPD) and lost high cost‑basis → 104.1k–114.3k corridor; STH ~60% in profit = fragile; neutral funding and slowing ETF intake = capped momentum.
Expected impact: While 112k isn’t reclaimed with volume, bias stays NEUTRAL SELL ; above 114k–116k, risk‑on resumes.
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Key Takeaways
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A controlled range persists with an active 112k ceiling and selective dip‑bidding lower.
- Overall trend: 📉 tactical bearish within a HTF range.
- Top setup: Fade 111.95–112.15 with invalidation >112.5 and targets 110.5/109.6/108.0.
- Macro key: Fed‑lean dovish but labor/ISM data could swing momentum toward 112k or down to 109.5.
Stay disciplined: trade the range, protect stops, and let closes above 112.5 and 114–116k speak. 🧭
