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Trade the news: Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF) — Financial Report1) Executive summary Wolfspeed (WOLF) is a leading silicon carbide (SiC) and GaN semiconductor company undergoing a material capital structure reset after completing Chapter 11 restructuring in September 2025. Recent actions reduced debt ~70% and cut cash interest costs ~60%, materially improving solvency but leaving operating performance still challenged: FY‑2025 revenue ~USD 758m (down ~6% YoY) with large net losses driven by restructuring, impairments and prior operating losses. Near‑term upside: secular demand for SiC in EVs, charging, and renewables and commercial launch of 200mm SiC products support medium/long‑term growth. Near‑term risks: execution on capacity ramp, integration of restructuring, historically negative margins, and volatile equity after share restructuring. Valuation is currently distressed — market cap ~USD 3.5bn post‑restructuring, but earnings remain negative. Recommendation: BUY . Rationale: Balance of attractive secular market position and improved balance sheet versus ongoing operational turnaround risk and limited near‑term cash profitability. 2) Key data & company overview Company: Wolfspeed, Inc. Sector: Semiconductors (Power & RF; wide bandgap materials) Primary exchange: NYSE (ticker: WOLF) Brief business description: Designs and manufactures silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) materials, wafers, epitaxy and power devices (discretes, modules). Revenue model: product sales (materials + devices) and services; customers include EV OEMs, charging, industrial and renewable energy markets; operations global (US, Europe, Asia). Key market and price metrics (as of market close Sep 29–30, 2025; sources listed section 10): Market capitalization: ~USD 3.46bn Shares outstanding: ~156.5m Free float: ~large institutional + public float (major holders vary pre/post‑restructuring) P/E (TTM): Not meaningful / negative (EPS negative) EV/EBITDA (TTM): Not meaningful / negative (EBITDA negative) Last close (Sep 29, 2025): USD 22.10 (note: large intraday jump/volatility after reverse‑split/corporate actions) Price change: 1D: +~1,700% (spike driven by corporate restructuring / share actions); 1M, 3M, 1Y: highly volatile — 52‑week range USD 0.39–22.10 (see sources). 3) Financial results — summary (last 3 fiscal years + last 4 quarters) Sources: company 10‑Ks/10‑Qs, investor presentations, and aggregate finance sites (see section 10). A — Annual highlights (USD millions) Fiscal year Revenue Net income (loss) Operating margin Net margin Diluted EPS 2023 892.0 (870.0) (xx)% (yy)% (zz) 2024 807.2 (866.0) (xx)% (yy)% (zz) 2025 757.6 (1,610.0) (xx)% (−212)% (−11.27 to −11.39)* Notes/assumptions: 2023–2025 revenue and net loss figures aggregated from reported TTM and annual releases; net losses in 2025 include large restructuring/impairment items tied to Chapter 11. (Company reports may present slightly different per‑share EPS; displayed EPS range from public data.) B — Trailing four quarters (most recent four reported quarters, USD millions) Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q1 2025, Q2 2025: revenue trend shows modest decline YoY; net loss expanded in most recent quarters due to restructuring/one‑time charges. (Detailed quarter table: company Qs provide exact values in filings; if required, I used consolidated TTM revenue 757.6m and TTM net loss ~1.61bn.) C — YoY variations & trends Revenue: down ~6% YoY 2024→2025 (807.2 → 757.6), reflecting cyclical semiconductor end‑market softness partially offset by SiC product launches. Net loss: materially larger in 2025 due to restructuring charges, impairments and interest prior to debt reduction. Margins: gross and operating margins negative (gross margin reported negative TTM ~‑3% per data aggregators), indicating near‑term profitability issues. EPS: heavily negative; diluted EPS ~‑11 per share TTM. 4) Balance sheet & liquidity (latest reported) Key items (USD millions, most recent reported period before/after restructuring — values approximate from filings and market data): Cash & equivalents: ~USD X* (post‑restructuring cash balance to be confirmed in latest 10‑Q/press release). Short‑term investments: — (if any). Current assets: ~USD A* Current liabilities: ~USD B* Total debt (gross): previously high; restructuring reduced nominal debt by ~70% (post‑restructuring net debt ~much lower). Net debt (debt less cash): materially reduced; company claims significant deleveraging. Current ratio: ~ (company reported MRQ) — assume >1 post‑restructuring depending on cash. Quick ratio: similar direction. Debt/Equity: previously negative (due to net liabilities) — post‑restructuring improved (exact ratio depends on updated share count and reduced debt). Commentary: The Chapter 11 process materially de‑risked the balance sheet by cutting principal and interest costs, improving liquidity runway. However, operational cash burn persists until positive EBITDA/FCF is achieved. Primary liquidity risk is execution — meeting capex and ramp funding needs while scaling 200mm capacity and converting order backlog to profitable sales. 5) Cash flows (latest fiscal/TTM) Operating cash flow (TTM): negative/weak (company reported negative OCF in prior periods; TTM OCF approx. negative or low positives depending on working capital swings). Capital expenditures (capex): significant historically (capacity expansion for 200mm fabs). FY capex elevated in prior years (hundreds of millions). Free cash flow (FCF): negative in recent years due to high capex + operating losses. Post‑restructuring, interest expense reduction should improve FCF trajectory but positive FCF depends on margin recovery. Commentary: Capex is strategic (scale to 200mm SiC production). Sustainability hinges on converting revenue growth and margin improvement; until then, cash consumption risk remains. 6) Valuation A — Comparable multiples (most recent available; all figures approximate; peers chosen: STMicroelectronics (STM), ON Semiconductor (ON), Infineon (IFNNY). Company P/E (TTM) EV/EBITDA (TTM) P/S (TTM) Wolfspeed (WOLF) n.m. (negative) n.m. ~0.25 STM ~40.82 ~9.62 ~2.11 Infineon ~65.15 ~11.59 ~3.01 ON Semiconductor ~46.80 ~11.89 ~3.25 B — Simplified DCF estimate (high level; explicit assumptions) Assumptions (base case): 2026 revenue growth: +25% (post‑restructuring ramp from 2025 base USD 758m) driven by SiC demand and 200mm commercialization. 2027–2029 revenue CAGR: 20% → 15% → 12% (gradual deceleration as scale increases). Terminal growth rate: 3.0% (long‑term GDP proximate). EBITDA margin ramp: from breakeven to 20% by terminal period (assume heavy margin improvement with scale and lower interest). Tax rate: 21% (nominal). WACC: 9.0% (assumed; semiconductor manufacturing risk, growth, capital intensity). Capex: as % revenue 15% (high during ramp), declining to 6% long term. Working capital: modest incremental requirement (2% revenue). Key calculation (simplified): Project free cash flows for 2026–2029 using above assumptions, discount at 9% and compute terminal value via Gordon Growth. Resulting equity fair value per share (post‑restructuring share count 156.5m) ≈ USD 10–15 (base case). Sensitivity: If WACC = 8% → fair value rises to ~USD 12–18. If WACC = 10% → fair value falls to ~USD 8–12. If long‑term EBITDA margin ± 3% or revenue CAGR ± 3% produces ~±20–40% change in fair value. Notes: DCF is highly sensitive to margin and WACC; because 2025 EBITDA negative and high capex, valuation range is wide. I show a concise DCF only; full model available on request. 7) SWOT (4–6 points each) Strengths Market leader position in SiC technology and IP. First‑mover advantage on 200mm SiC commercialization. Large addressable market (EVs, chargers, renewables, industrial). Weaknesses Recent history of sustained operating losses and negative margins. High capital intensity (fab builds) and execution risk. Volatile equity structure and recent restructuring may dilute shareholder clarity. Opportunities Strong secular EV and charging adoption driving SiC demand. Upside from vertical integration and higher‑margin device sales. Potential long‑term margin expansion with 200mm cost reductions. Threats Intense competition (Infineon, ST, Monolith, domestic Asian entrants). Execution/quality issues in scaling 200mm production. Macroeconomic cyclical downturn reducing near‑term demand. 8) Key risks & catalysts and timeline Risks Execution risk on capacity ramp and yield improvement. Ongoing cash burn if revenue/margins do not improve. Competitive price pressure and market share shifts. Regulatory/geopolitical supply chain constraints (export controls, China exposure). Catalysts & timeline (public calendar / estimates) Upcoming earnings release: early November 2025 (company guidance: earnings date around Nov 4–5, 2025 — confirm via investor calendar). Investor day / presentations on 200mm commercialization: potential dates in late 2025 / 2026 (watch investor relations). Further integration of restructuring (shareholder communications, board changes) — near term (Q4 2025). Product shipments ramp to EV OEMs and large OEM qualification milestones — 2026–2027. 9) Final recommendation & risk positioning Recommendation: BUY. Time horizon: Medium term (6–18 months) to monitor EBITDA/FCF inflection and execution on 200mm ramp. Risk/return profile: Medium‑high risk / medium return. Upside if margin recovery and SiC adoption accelerate; downside if execution stalls or demand weakens. Convert to Buy only upon consistent positive adjusted EBITDA and sustainable FCF or clearer long‑term guidance. 10) Sources, assumptions & data notes Primary sources reviewed (data as of Sep 30, 2025): Wolfspeed investor relations — press releases, 8‑K/10‑Q/10‑K filings, investor presentations (investor.wolfspeed.com) Reuters, CNBC, Business Wire, Seeking Alpha articles (company restructuring coverage) Financial data aggregators: Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, TipRanks, Bloomberg summaries (public snapshots) Market data: NYSE trade/quote snapshots (Sep 29–30, 2025) Explicit assumptions and data gaps: Exact post‑restructuring cash balance, detailed pro forma debt schedule, and revised share count were proxied from press releases and aggregator snapshots; final pro‑forma figures should be verified in the company’s post‑emergence 10‑K/10‑Q filing. Some ratios (P/E, EV/EBITDA) are not meaningful due to negative earnings/EBITDA; P/S used cautiously. DCF used simplified assumptions (WACC 9%, revenue growth profile and margin ramp); model is illustrative and sensitive to inputs.
NYSE:WOLFLong
by dPEngineering
Why Did Cheap Lumber Become a National Security Issue?Lumber prices have entered a structurally elevated regime, driven by the convergence of trade policy, industrial capacity constraints, and emerging technological demand. The U.S. administration's imposition of Section 232 tariffs - 10% on softwood lumber and up to 25% on wood products like cabinets - reframes timber as critical infrastructure essential for defense systems, power grids, and transportation networks. This national security designation provides legal durability, preventing a quick reversal through trade negotiations and establishing a permanent price floor. Meanwhile, Canadian producers facing combined duties exceeding 35% are pivoting exports toward Asian and European markets, permanently reducing North American supply by over 3.2 billion board feet annually that domestic mills cannot quickly replace. The domestic industry faces compounding structural deficits that prevent rapid capacity expansion. U.S. sawmill utilization languishes at 64.4% despite demand, constrained not by timber availability but by severe labor shortages—the average logging contractor age exceeds 57, with one-third planning retirement within five years. This workforce crisis forces expensive automation investments while climate-driven wildfires introduce recurring supply shocks. Simultaneously, cybersecurity vulnerabilities in digitized mill operations pose quantifiable risks, with manufacturing ransomware attacks causing an estimated $17 billion in downtime since 2018. These operational constraints compound tariff costs, with new home prices increasing $7,500 to $22,000 before builder markups and financing costs amplify the final impact by nearly 15%. Technological innovation is fundamentally reshaping demand patterns beyond traditional housing cycles. Cross-laminated timber (CLT) markets are growing at 13-15% annually as mass timber products displace steel and concrete in commercial construction, while wood-based nanomaterials enter high-tech applications from transparent glass substitutes to biodegradable electronics. This creates resilient demand for premium-grade wood fiber across diversified industrial sectors. Combined with precision forestry technologies - drones, LiDAR, and advanced logistics software—these innovations both support higher price points and require substantial capital investment that further elevates the cost baseline. The financialization of lumber through CME futures markets amplifies these fundamental pressures, with prices reaching $1,711 per thousand board feet in 2021 and attracting speculative capital that magnifies volatility. Investors must recognize this convergence of geopolitical mandates, chronic supply deficits, cyber-physical risks, and technology-driven demand shifts as establishing a permanently elevated price regime. The era of cheap lumber has definitively come to an end, replaced by a high-cost, high-volatility environment that requires sophisticated supply chain resilience and financial hedging strategies.
CME:LBR1!Long
by UDIS_View
Bitcoin capped below 115k: plan and invalidations__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is staging a controlled recovery above 111k while stalling beneath a heavy 113.8k–116k supply zone ahead of the 117.97k pivot. The backdrop is constructive, but intraday timeframes still show profit-taking. Momentum: Bullish 📈 on 1D/12H, with active consolidation on 2H–6H after the 114.6k–114.8k rejection. Key levels: • Resistances (HTF): 114.8k–116k (1D/12H), 117.97k (1D), 124.3k (W). • Supports (HTF): 112.4k–111.5k (12H), 110.4k (pivot), 109.3k (6H). Volumes: Normal on 1D, very high intraday on the 114.6k–114.8k fade, moderate on 6H. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H Up; 2H/4H/6H Down (pullback within HTF trend); 1H/30m/15m tactical rebounds at 112.6k–112.9k. Elevated offer-side volumes argue for clear validations before breakout. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY → mild risk-on bias, aligned with HTF momentum; occasional intraday spikes to STRONG BUY, but not persistent. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Context: HTF trend is bullish; favor disciplined dip-buys at supports with confirmation, be cautious below 114.8k–116k. Global bias: Moderately bullish while > 111k; primary invalidation below 110.4k (structure loss). Opportunities: • Buy-the-dip: Buy 112.7k–112.2k on reversal signal; target 114.6k then 115.3k/117.0k. • Breakout: Buy break & hold > 114.8k (30m–1H) aiming for 117.97k. • Tactical sell: Fade clean rejection at 114.6k–115.3k (wick + volume) toward 113.7k then 112.9k. Risk zones / invalidations: A firm break < 112.2k reopens 111.5k–110.4k; a 1D close > 118k invalidates tactical shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Fed: initial 25 bp cut and gradual easing path → gentle risk-on. • Softer USD, gold at highs, oil lower (OPEC+) → supportive tailwind for BTC. • US shutdown risk + CPI/ISM/NFP week → elevated volatility near key levels. Action plan: • Entry: 112.7k–112.2k (candle reversal + intraday momentum rebuild). • Stop: below 111.8k (aggressive) or below 110.4k (conservative). • TP: 114.6k (TP1) / 115.3k (TP2) / 117.0k (TP3). • R/R guide: ~1.8R (tight stop) up to ~2.5–3R (wide stop) depending on execution/trailing. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall HTF is bullish, MTF is breathing, and LTF is rebounding at demand. 1D/12H: Bullish structure above 111k–112k; compression below 114.8k–116k. A daily close > 114k strengthens odds for 117.97k. 6H/4H/2H: Orderly pullback after 109k→114k impulse; buyer pivot 112.4k–111.9k; sustained upside needs > 113.8k then > 114.6k. 1H/30m/15m: Tactical bid active at 112.6k–112.9k; very high offer-side volumes → wait for confirmations, avoid late chases under 114.8k. Confluences/divergences: Strong confluence 112.4k–111.5k; recent intraday divergences suggest shallow but jumpy pullbacks. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mildly supportive (more dovish Fed, softer USD), while on-chain and ETF signals are positive but uneven. Macro events: Fed started easing (−25 bp) with a cautious tone; USD softer, gold at highs, oil lower (OPEC+); US shutdown risk and CPI/ISM/NFP in focus. Bitcoin analysis: ETF inflows turned positive on the day but 7D trend is fragile → tactical support to dip-buys; technical structure reclaimed with firm BTC dominance. On-chain data: STH cost basis near ~111k is pivotal; LTH realized sizable profits; derivatives deleveraging and elevated put skew → respect downside shock risk. Expected impact: Supportive yet not euphoric, fitting a “buy dips” approach while 110.4k holds; above 114.8k, macro could help extend toward 117.97k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is recovering above 111k but sellers defend 114.8k–116k. - Overall trend: Constructively bullish on HTF, with a breathing MTF. - Best setup: Disciplined buy at 112.7k–112.2k with confirmations; extend if break & hold > 114.8k toward 117.97k. - Key macro: Gradual Fed easing + softer USD provide a tailwind. Stay selective: demand confirmations at offers and watch 110.4k as the key line in the sand.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Make Money Quickly Every Second👋Hello everyone! Today, I want to share a simple yet effective scalping strategy, particularly suitable for those trading gold. With this strategy, you can optimize your profits and minimize risks during trading. To achieve this, the first thing you need to do is create a strategy that suits your goals (profit targets, risk tolerance). I usually set my stop loss around 30 - 50 pips per trade and divide the profit into three main stages. ⭐️ Example of a Buy XAUUSD trade: 📉 ENTRY: $3,750 ❗️ SL: $3,745 (50 pips) ✅ TP1: $3,753 (30 pips) ✅ TP2: $3,755 - $3,757 (50-70 pips) ✅ TP3: $3,760 ++ (>= 100 pips) 📌 TP1 – 30 Pips If the price moves in your favor and hits $3,753 (equivalent to 30 pips), you can close part of the position if the entry was bad, and move the stop loss to the entry price ($3,750) to ensure you don't incur any loss if the market reverses. 📌 TP2 – 50-70 Pips Close part of the profit, and move the stop loss to TP1 if you want to keep the position open. Now your SL is at $3,753, which guarantees the remaining profit and, in case of a sudden reversal, you’ve already secured 30 pips in profit. 📌 TP3 – Close All Positions ✅Close the remaining position to secure all profits and wait for future trading opportunities. Notes: Only use a small portion of your capital per trade to minimize risk. Always keep up with news and technical analysis to make timely decisions (whether to hold or close the position). Patience: Don’t rush to close the position if the market is still moving in your favor. I hope this strategy helps you trade more effectively. Don’t forget to like this post to support me🚀, as I have more exciting content waiting for you. Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Kevinn_Nguyen
25
BTC | 111k holds: tactical long bias, eyes on 113.1k__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating above 111,040, trapped in a tight range with a higher‑timeframe bullish bias, while intraday remains pressured below 113,129. The 111k area acts as the market’s key pivot. 🔁 Momentum: Range with bullish tilt 📈 — higher TFs positive (1D/12H), intraday needs a reclaim above 113,129. Key levels: • Resistances (TF): 113,129–114,384 (240/1D, immediate ceiling), 117,900 (1D, upper cap). • Supports (TF): 111,040 (240/1D, major pivot), 110,440 (intraday), 107,255 (1D). Volumes: Normal on daily; moderate on 4H/30m downside pushes — no standalone catalyst. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H bullish, 4H/2H/1H mixed-to-bearish below 113,129; a reclaim/hold > 113,129 opens 114,384. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY (stronger on 15m) — confirms the range‑bullish bias and favors buy‑the‑dip above 111k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: higher‑timeframe uptrend, prefer tactical longs above 111,040. 🎯 Global bias: NEUTRAL BUY while 111,040 holds; key invalidation on a close below 111,040 (align TF to your horizon). Opportunities: • Defensive long: bullish reaction confirmed above 111,040; add on break/hold > 112,300 then > 113,129. • Breakout long: close and hold > 113,129 (30m/15m ≥ 2 bars) to target 114,384. • Tactical sell: clean rejection at 112.9k–113.1k with selling volume, target a pullback to 111,040 (reduced size vs HTF filter). Risk zones / invalidations: • A confirmed loss of 111,040 → increases risk toward 110,440 then 107,255. • Reclaim & hold > 113,129 → negates intraday pressure and unlocks 114,384. Macro catalysts: • Fed: -25 bps cut with dovish guidance — medium‑term risk support, validates buy‑the‑dip. • Dollar (DXY): bounce risk — near‑term headwind, argues for staged entries. • ETF flows: recent modest inflows, neutral‑to‑slightly constructive — not a trigger but doesn’t cap the technical upside. Action plan: • Entry: 111,300–111,500 on re‑acceptance/HL confirmation (15m/30m); add if holding > 112,300 then > 113,129. • Stop: 110,850 (below swing & S1). • TP1: 112,950; TP2: 113,129–113,300; TP3: 114,300–114,400. • R/R: ≈ 2.0–2.5x depending on execution and adds. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, higher timeframes lean bullish while lower timeframes remain pressured until 113,129 is reclaimed. 🧭 1D/12H/6H: Bullish bias while holding 111,040; clearing 113,129 then 114,384 would enable compression toward 117,900. 4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Intraday pressure below 113,129, moderate volume on sell pushes; dip‑buys near 111,040 remain preferred as long as the pivot holds. Key divergences: HTF Up vs LTF Down → favors “buy the dip” at support, confirmed by volume and reclaim of prior caps (112,300 → 113,129). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro backdrop is modestly supportive (dovish Fed), but a dollar bounce could cap near‑term rallies; ETF flows are constructive but not decisive. ⚖️ Macro events: Fed -25 bps and still‑dovish dot plot support risk; a technical DXY bounce remains a short‑term counterweight. Bitcoin analysis: Defending ~111k near the 100D; gradual recovery toward the 50D plausible if 113,129/114,384 are reclaimed; institutional/ETF tone mildly positive. On-chain data: Not provided — technicals and flows drive the lens. Expected impact: Macro is broadly risk‑friendly, but execution should be paced under resistance; prefer staged entries above 111k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is ranging above 111,040 with a higher‑timeframe bullish bias and intraday headwinds below 113,129. - Trend: bullish in HTF, neutral/paused intraday until 113,129 is reclaimed. - Setup: buy the dip above 111,040, then add on breakout > 113,129 toward 114,384. - Macro: Dovish Fed supports the case, while a firm DXY can slow upside. Stay nimble: watch 111,040 defense and the 113,129 reclaim to trigger the next leg.
Long
by Ox_kali
BTC – Momentum Returns!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈BTC has been overall bullish trading within the rising broadening wedge marked in red. This week, BTC has been retesting the lower bound of the wedge. Moreover, the orange zone is a strong structure and previous ATH. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the lower red trendline and orange structure. 📚 As per my trading style: As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for trend-following bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
BTC: All eyes on 116,814.5 into the FOMC__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling below the 116.6–116.8k supply zone, keeping the higher-timeframe uptrend intact but capped by the daily pivot at 116,814.5. With the FOMC ahead, volumes remain normal, favoring “break & hold” confirmation over anticipation. Momentum: Mild bullish bias 📈 but capped under 116,814.5 → high-range 115.0–116.8k. Key levels: - Resistances : 116,600–116,814.5 (D/4H pivot), 117,600–118,000 (local liquidity), 124,277.5 (major D pivot). - Supports : 115,100–114,900 (1H/30m), 114,447.7–113,421 (4H/12H confluence), 111,965.8 (weekly pivot). Volumes: Normal across TFs; a volume spike is needed to validate the 116.8k breakout. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H Up (MTFTI filter), 6H/4H/2H NEUTRAL BUY with stair-step structure; notable exception: 1D Dashboard at STRONG SELL, tempering extensions. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRE VENTE (slight risk-off tilt) — this contradicts the tactical bullish momentum, so demand robust breakout confirmation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: primary uptrend intact but locked by 116,814.5; favor confirmed breakouts and clean retests. Global bias: Neutral-bullish while 113,421 holds; key invalidation on a close < 113,421 (HTF). Opportunities: - Breakout long: Buy a break & hold > 116,814.5 (≥2 closes 4H/12H), target 117.6–118.0k then 120k. - Buy the dip: Tactical bids at 115,100–114,900 with tight stop below 114,447.7, targeting 116.2 then 116.8k. - Tactical sell: Fade 116.6–116.8k if 115.1k/114,447.7 breaks, target 113.42k. Risk zones / invalidations: - A loss of 113,421 unlocks 111,97k and invalidates the bullish bias. - Failed hold above 116,814.5 (fast rejection) = bull trap risk; wait for a “break & hold”. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - FOMC: 25 bp cut expected; Powell’s guidance/dot plot will steer risk. - Softer USD, record gold and strong equities = conditional tailwind. - Elevated post-Fed whipsaw risk; avoid impulsive entries. Action plan: - Plan A (Breakout long) : Entry 116.9–116.4k (retest), Stop 114.9k, TP1 117.6–118.0k, TP2 120k, TP3 124,277.5, R/R ~1.8–2.5x. - Plan B (Buy the dip) : Entry 115.10–114.90k, Stop 114.40k, TP1 116.20k, TP2 116.80k, TP3 117.6–118.0k, R/R ~1.5–2.0x. - Plan C (Tactical sell) : Entry on 116.6–116.8k rejection confirmed by a 115.1k break, Stop > 116,814.5, TP1 114.45k, TP2 113.42k, TP3 111.97k, R/R ~1.8–2.2x. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher TFs remain constructive but constrained by a single overhead pivot, while tactical TFs lean bullish provided a confirmed breakout. 1D/12H: Up with higher highs/lows; 116,814.5 is the decision pivot. Holding above unlocks 118–120k; below it, high-range 114.9–116.8k persists. 6H/4H/2H: NEUTRAL BUY; stair-step advance with bids near 114.4–115.1k. The Dashboard (4H = STRONG BUY) supports a clean breakout if volumes expand. 1H/30m: NEUTRAL; compression 115.1–116.0k with supply 115.6–115.9k. Validation requires > 116.20k then > 116,814.5. 15m: NEUTRAL BUY; micro higher lows but intraday cap intact. Key confluence: single 116,814.5 resistance + normal volumes → need a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is FOMC-driven (cut expected) with a softer USD and record gold aiding risk, yet event risk is elevated. Macro events: A 25 bp cut is widely anticipated; Powell/dot plot to guide risk. DXY pullback and equity momentum are tailwinds; whipsaw risk post-Fed remains high. Bitcoin analysis: Price compressed under ~116.8–118k; 115k acts as intraday pivot. The 114.45–113.42k cluster is critical; losing it invites 111.97k. On-chain data: Spot/ETFs flows tempered; derivatives more influential with moderate leverage — a durable breakout needs spot volume and multi-bar holds above 116.8k. Expected impact: A dovish Fed improves odds of a break & hold > 116,814.5; a hawkish tilt risks a slide toward 114.45–113.42k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is in a high-range under a single daily pivot, with an intact uptrend but macro headwinds. - Overall trend: neutral-bullish while 113,421 holds; a clean break of 116,814.5 is needed to target 118–120k. - Top setup: confirmed breakout > 116,814.5 with a successful retest and rising volume. - Macro factor: FOMC ahead; softer USD and record gold support risk but heighten whipsaw potential. Stay patient: wait for “break & hold” or buy the manageable dip — discipline around major pivots is key.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
BTC capped at 113.2k–115.2k: fade rallies, watch CPI__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is chopping in the low-110k, capped by a stacked 113.2k–115.2k supply zone, with macro headline risk elevated into CPI. Momentum: 📉 Range with bearish tilt — upside attempts fail below 113.2k–114k while HTF pressure remains risk-off. Key levels: • Resistances (HTF/LTF) : 113.2k–113.4k (LTF/240 PH) · 114.5k–115.3k (HTF/720 PH) · 116.6k (recent high, HTF). • Supports (HTF) : 111.9k–112.0k (W pivot) · 110.8k (240 PL) · 107.8k (D PL). Volumes: Normal on HTF; “moderate” upticks on 1H–30m during failed breakouts. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H trend down; 4H–1H mixed with a hard cap at 113.2k–114k; 15m micro-bullish while 111.96k holds. Strong confluence at 113.2k → 115.2k resistance and 111.96k/110.77k/107.8k supports. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL SELL ; Global Risk Regime stays STRONG SELL — confirms the bearish bias and fades micro-rallies. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ As long as 113.2k–115.2k caps price, favor “sell the rip” and only buy on confirmed signals. Global bias: SELL while below 115.24k; major short invalidation on daily > 116.6k. Opportunities: • Tactical short on 113.2k–114.0k rejection toward 112.0k/111.0k; inval. above 115.3k. • Breakout long only on H1/H4 acceptance > 113.3k (retest holds) toward 114.6k/115.24k; inval. below 111.9k. • Defensive long on clean reaction at 110.8k or 107.8k if risk blocks improve (≥ NEUTRAL BUY on LTF). Risk zones / invalidations: Break < 110,77k voids defensive longs (opens 107.8k); H4/D12 close > 115.24k voids range shorts (opens squeeze to 116.6k). Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): CPI next (direct vol around 111k–112k pivot) · Geopolitics (NATO Article 4; Middle East) supports risk-off · US tariff path (SCOTUS) preserves trade-policy uncertainty. Action plan: • Fade-rally short : Entry 113.2k–114.0k / Stop 115.3k / TP1 112.0k · TP2 111.0k · TP3 110.8k / R:R ~1.8–2.5. • Breakout long : Entry > 113.3k (confirmed retest) / Stop 111.9k / TP1 114.6k · TP2 115.24k · TP3 116.6k / R:R ~1.6–2.2. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs remain bearish while LTFs attempt extensions under a dense overhead supply. 1D/12H/6H: Downtrend, rallies capped below 113.2k–115.2k; dominant supply, supports layered at 111.96k → 110.77k → 107.8k. 4H/2H/1H: Mixed reads; need a clean close > 113.24k to open 114.6k–115.24k, otherwise frequent fades back to 111.96k. 30m/15m: 30m cautious (STRONG SELL) vs 15m micro-bullish (NEUTRAL BUY); classic pre-catalyst divergence — wait for H1/H4 confirmations. Confluence/Divergence: Heavy multi-TF supply 113.2k → 115.2k; risk-on equities vs risk-off credit/crypto warns against chasing crypto bounces. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed (gold ATH, firm oil, US equities buoyed by cut hopes) while geopolitics heats up and CPI looms. Macro events: CPI imminently (sets risk tone) · NATO Article 4/Middle East tensions (risk premia higher) · US tariff track (SCOTUS) sustains uncertainty. Bitcoin analysis: 100–1k BTC cohorts accumulating, 1k–10k distributing — potential cap on impulsive upside; ETF flows cooling, consistent with consolidation below 114k–116k. On-chain data: Activity skewed by inscriptions/runes; sentiment in “fear” (44/100) implies positioning not crowded long. Expected impact: Range-to-down bias while < 113.3k–115.2k; a benign CPI could trigger a push > 113.3k toward 114.6k/115.24k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ The market stalls under multi-TF supply as key catalysts approach. - Overall trend: 📉 bearish on HTF; LTFs try but stall below 113.2k–114k. - Best setup: Fade 113.2k–114.0k into CPI with active management. - Key macro: CPI and geopolitics drive the global risk regime. Stay disciplined around the 111.9k–112.0k pivot and let confirmation lead exposure. ⚠️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
Risky NZDUSD Trade RecapThis setup wasn’t the cleanest, but sometimes calculated risk pays off. 📉 Setup: Price was in a clear downtrend, making this buy counter-trend. Demand zone around 0.5818 offered a possible bounce. Break of the descending trendline gave early confirmation. ✅ Entry: 0.58189 ❌ SL: 0.57964 🎯 TP: 0.59420 – 0.59490 supply zone 📊 Outcome: Despite the risk of fading the trend, price respected demand, broke structure, and ran straight into my supply target at 0.5940+ for full profits. ⚠️ Not every trade will be textbook perfect — but with proper risk management, even the risky ones can pay off. #NZDUSD #ForexTrader #RiskManagement #RiskyTrade #PriceAction #SmartMoneyConcepts #ForexJourney #MarketStructure
by Solidwealth
Indecision and Potential StallingHi Traders! GBPUSD is telling me indecision right now. When mapping out my trading plan I'm seeing price recently made a higher low on the weekly, dipped into a Daily Order Block, and currently testing the 1.36000 neckline. However, unless GBPUSD closes above 1.35200, retests with continuation, this looks like consolidation. Alerts set, and waiting for some more confirmation right now. Key levels: Bullish breakout- Close above 1.35200. Bearish caution- Break below 1.34600/1.34500. *DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
by thattradergirl
How Lisa Cook’s Rejection Sparked a Dollar Rebound Markets were quick to react to President Trump’s decision to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The U.S. dollar softened immediately, as traders weighed the possibility of political interference undermining confidence in the Fed’s policy outlook. The EURUSD found support near 1.1690, before retracing as Cook’s stance restored some market confidence. Cook has refused to step down and is preparing legal action, arguing that the president lacks the authority to remove a sitting governor. If Trump doubles down or the legal fight escalates, we could expect volatility with a possible bias for euro strength. If 1.1640 breaks cleanly to the upside, EUR/USD could attempt to retest the 50% retracement at 1.1660, and then the 61.8% level near 1.1680.
by BlackBull_Markets
Can Sound Waves Become Tomorrow's Shield Against Global Chaos?Genasys Inc. (NASDAQ: GNSS) operates at the convergence of escalating global instability and technological innovation, positioning itself as a critical player in the protective communications sector. The company's sophisticated portfolio combines its proprietary Long Range Acoustic Device (LRAD) systems with the cloud-first Genasys Protect software platform, serving over 155 million individuals across more than 100 countries. With law enforcement agencies in over 500 U.S. cities utilizing LRAD systems for applications ranging from SWAT operations to crowd control, Genasys has established itself as the global standard in acoustic hailing devices, delivering messages 20-30 decibels louder and with superior intelligibility compared to traditional systems. The company's growth trajectory aligns with powerful macroeconomic forces driving unprecedented demand for protective communications. Global defense spending surged to $2.718 trillion in 2024—a 9.4% increase representing the steepest rise since 1988—while the critical infrastructure protection market is projected to grow from $148.64 billion in 2024 to $213.94 billion by 2032. Genasys's integrated solutions directly address this expanding market through non-kinetic de-escalation capabilities and cyber-physical threat mitigation, recently securing $1 million in LRAD orders for the Middle East and Africa as geopolitical tensions intensify. Genasys's competitive advantage rests on a robust foundation of 17 registered patents, particularly in acoustic hailing technology, creating significant barriers to entry while enabling premium pricing. The company's $4.2 million annual R&D investment ensures continued innovation, while strategic partnerships like its collaboration with FloodMapp demonstrate the platform's evolution toward predictive threat mitigation rather than merely reactive response. Despite current profitability challenges—with Q3 2025 net losses of $6.5 million—the company maintains a substantial project backlog exceeding $16 million, plus the transformative $40 million Puerto Rico Early Warning System project expected to generate $15-20 million in fiscal 2025 revenue. The investment thesis centers on Genasys's unique positioning to capitalize on the global shift toward sophisticated, non-lethal security solutions amid rising geopolitical instability. With percentage-of-completion accounting currently suppressing gross margins to 26.3% but promising significant margin expansion as major projects near completion, the company represents a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to defense, public safety, and critical infrastructure growth markets. The convergence of technological superiority, strategic market positioning, and substantial revenue visibility through confirmed backlog suggests significant long-term potential despite near-term financial complexities.
NASDAQ:GNSSLong
by UDIS_View
U.S. Slaps 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold BarsU.S. Slaps 39% Tariff on Swiss Gold Bars, Shaking the Global Bullion Market By Hirad Aryanejad – Macroeconomic & Gold Markets Analyst --- The United States has moved to impose a 39% tariff on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars from Switzerland — a shock decision that could ripple across the global bullion market. In a letter dated July 31, 2025, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reclassified these widely traded bullion products — critical to the Comex futures market — as “semi-manufactured”, making them subject to duties. Previously, they were classified as “unwrought, nonmonetary gold” , exempting them from earlier tariff rounds. --- A Blow to the World’s Largest Refining Hub The decision follows former President Donald Trump’s broader tariff package on all Swiss goods, announced after rejecting Switzerland’s proposal for a 10% tariff in exchange for \$150 billion in U.S.-bound investment. Switzerland — the world’s largest gold refining hub — exported roughly $61.5 billion in gold to the U.S. over the 12 months ending June 2025. The new tariff could add nearly $24 billion in duties. Christoph Wild, President of the Swiss Association of Manufacturers and Traders of Precious Metals, called the ruling “another blow” to Swiss-U.S. gold trade, warning that exports may become “economically unviable”. --- Market Reaction: Record Gold Prices The ruling triggered an immediate market shock. Gold futures in New York surged past $3,500 per troy ounce, hitting a record $3,534 on August 8, before pulling back slightly. Analysts say the rally was driven by both the tariff announcement and gold’s safe-haven appeal amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Some traders described the CBP’s decision as “shocking” and possibly mistaken, predicting legal challenges ahead. The lack of clarity has already caused certain shipments to freeze in transit. --- The Critical Role of Switzerland in Bullion Logistics Global bullion trade depends on a triangular supply chain: Raw gold refined in Switzerland Cast into kilo bars for the U.S. market or 400-ounce bars for London Delivered to satisfy Comex contracts and central bank reserves This logistical network is now under threat. UBS strategist Joni Teves has questioned whether U.S. gold futures trading can remain viable if tariffs on deliverable products persist. The Swiss Precious Metals Association noted that the CBP’s clarification applies to all 1kg and 100oz gold bars imported into the U.S. not only those from Switzerland — raising the stakes for global trade flows. --- Negotiations and Uncertainty Ahead Switzerland continues to negotiate with Washington to reduce the tariff burden, but uncertainty remains. The White House is reportedly preparing a clarification on the bullion tariffs that could determine whether the market stabilizes or faces prolonged disruption. Until then, gold industry players — from major banks to refining houses — are bracing for further volatility, both in pricing and physical supply chains. --- Keywords: gold market news, Swiss gold bars, U.S. gold tariffs, Comex gold futures, bullion trade, Switzerland gold exports, precious metals refining, gold price surge, macroeconomic analysis.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by hiradaryanejad
2
Swing opportunity on cluster support, technical & macro plan__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum : Tech sector bias supportive on higher timeframes (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “Buy” on 1D/12H) despite MTFTI “Down” on intraday (15min to 6H). Key Supports : Major cluster at 111,900–112,772 (W Pivot High, 12H/24H Pivot Low). Critical defense short/mid term. Resistances : 114,723, then 115,900, then 119,800–122,318 (break to relaunch impulse). Volumes : Moderate to normal across all timeframes: no panic or capitulation. Multi-TF Behaviour : ISPD DIV neutral everywhere: neither fear nor euphoria; wait-and-see market. No climax nor emotional extremes: conducive to squeeze or extension after catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias : Neutral to cautious bullish if 111,900–112,772 holds (invalidate if <111,900). Opportunities : Defensive swing long entries on support. Gradual targets: 114,723, 115,900, 119,800–122,318. Risks : Daily/4H close below 111,900 = acceleration towards $110k/$105k (on-chain air-gap). Macro Catalysts : Geopolitical tensions (Gaza/Ukraine/China), China crypto ban headlines, sector decoupling, Fed/BoE policy. Action Plan : Strict stop management (<111,750), agile on volume/ISPD signals. Critical macro monitoring: any exogenous move can trigger directional volatility. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D (Daily) : Key support 114,723.2. Tech sector indicator (Risk On / Risk Off Indicator) bullish. MTFTI Up. Normal volume, no panic. Lack of ISPD oversold signal. 12H : Support W Pivot High 111,900 – 12H Pivot Low 111,920. Uptrend, moderately higher volumes, ISPD neutral. Battling for support maintenance and bounce. 6H : Core pivot support 111,900–112,000. MTFTI Down. No volume excess or sentiment signal. End of momentum, increase vigilance. 4H : Weakness confirmed, supports 112,000–112,500, resistance 117,722 to 119,800. Last short-term rampart tested. 2H-1H : Bearish, attacks on 111,900–112,772 supports, immediate resistance at 114,723/115,900. Weak range market. 30min-15min : Neutral, lower range between supports (111,900–112,772) and resistances (113,950–114,723). Volatility on breakout events, no sector bias. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Persistent “Buy” on higher timeframes (12H/1D), neutral/bearish intraday (4H and below). ISPD DIV : No extremes detected: no exhaustion, panic or major oversold; “range” environment. Volumes : Normal, no climax or anomaly. Market awaiting a catalyst. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental, Macro Events, Sentiment Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro : Newsflow on China crypto ban, multiple tensions (Gaza, Russia-Ukraine), Fed/BoE slowing. Globally cautious setting despite no direct institutional shock. On-chain (Glassnode) : Major OTC sale (~80k BTC) absorbed, 97% supply in profit: “moderate euphoria” phase, not capitulation; on-chain supports $110–117k, resistance $125–141k, air-gap below $115k. Twitter : No panic, “final wick” narrative then anticipated technical rebound. No institutional outflows. China ban read as cyclical FUD. __________________________________________________________________________________ Summary & Action Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Support 111,900–112,772 = key multi-TF cluster; area for defensive swing opportunity. MTFTI is “Down” on lower TF, but Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bullish on daily/12H. No capitulation, normal volume, market waiting for catalyst. Swing bullish invalidated below 111,900—stop required, R/R 1:2 minimum. Fast reclaim above 114,723 plus strong upside volume: short squeeze & potential extension to 119,800–122,318. Macro monitoring essential (China ban, monetary policy, geopolitics). __________________________________________________________________________________ Operational Summary : Favor defensive swing long plans on multi-TF cluster support (111,900–112,772), strict stop <111,750, progressive TPs to 114,723/115,900/119,800. Stay opportunistic: bias cautiously bullish but risk management is paramount in a cautious global environment and with no strong extremes detected. __________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
DCF VALUATION ANALYSIS OF BSEConclusion: OVERVALUED :-OVERVIEW BSE Limited has shown strong financial growth in recent years. Its revenue jumped from ₹924.84 crore in FY23 to ₹1,592.50 crore in FY24 (a 72% increase), and further surged to ₹3,212 crore in FY25, doubling year-on-year. EBITDA grew impressively to ₹1,779 crore in FY25 with a 60% increase, and EBIT reached ₹1,670 crore, up 56%. Net profit also rose significantly to ₹1,112 crore, with earnings per share increasing to ₹81. Dividend per share improved to ₹23, reflecting healthy returns DCF: -The valuation was performed using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach based purely on verified financial data and market risk parameters without relying on user-specific growth assumptions. -The cost of equity was calculated using an adjusted risk-free rate plus equity risk premium multiplied by beta, resulting in a discount rate of approximately 13.58%. The terminal growth rate was conservatively taken as 4%. Using these reliable inputs and actual EBIT cash flows, the intrinsic enterprise value was estimated at around ₹36,839 crore, translating to an intrinsic value per share of approximately ₹1,364. -Currently, BSE’s market price is around ₹2,480 per share, which is substantially higher than the intrinsic value derived from fundamentals, indicating the stock is trading at a significant premium. This valuation is grounded in audited company financials and globally accepted valuation methodologies, providing a trustworthy reference point for investors.
NSE:BSEShort
by Tap_trader
4
Risk-to-Reward and Journaling : Track, analyze, and evolve 📈 Mastering the Markets: Why Risk-to-Reward and Journaling Are Every Trader’s Edge In trading, profitability isn't just about making winning trades — it's about managing risk smartly and learning from every position. Two of the most underrated habits that separate amateurs from consistent traders are: 1. Understanding Risk-to-Reward (R:R) The risk-to-reward ratio is the foundation of trade planning. It's a simple calculation of how much you're willing to risk versus how much you aim to gain. A ratio of 1:2 means you risk $1 to potentially make $2. ✅ Why it matters: Even with a 40% win rate, a positive R:R can still yield profitability. It disciplines your entries, stops, and targets — no more emotional exits. It forces you to filter out trades that don’t offer enough upside. 📊 For example, if you take 10 trades risking $100 each with a 1:2 R:R: Win 4 = $800 gain Lose 6 = $600 loss Net Profit = $200 despite winning less than half. 2. The Power of Journaling Trading without a journal is like flying blind. Your memory fades, but data doesn’t lie. A trading journal helps you: 🧠 Improve strategy by analyzing what works (symbols, timeframes, setups) 📉 Spot patterns in losses — overtrading? wrong R:R? bad timing? 📈 Stay disciplined — journaling enforces accountability 📒 Capture emotions — was it fear or FOMO? A journal tracks mindset too. In my experience, journaling alone can boost a trader’s edge more than tweaking indicators. It turns experience into insight. 🎯 Final Word The market rewards preparation, not prediction. A solid risk-to-reward framework keeps you in the game. Journaling turns your trades into tuition. Together, they compound your growth. Happy Trading
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by TATraderSid
Mastering Risk Management: The Trader’s Real EdgeYou’ve all heard it, “Cut your losses and let your winners run.” Simple words — but living by them is what separates survivors from blown accounts. Here’s some tips on how to approach risk management when trading: ☑️ Risk is always predefined: Before I click Buy or Sell, I know exactly how much I’m willing to lose. If you don’t define risk upfront, the market will do it for you. ☑️ Position sizing: Never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade. Small losses mean you can keep taking high‑probability setups without fear. ☑️ Always use a stop‑loss: No stop? You’re not trading — you’re gambling. ☑️ Stop‑loss discipline: Place stops where the market proves you wrong — not where it “feels comfortable.” Then leave them alone. ☑️ Focus on risk/reward, not win rate: A 40% win rate can still be profitable if your average reward outweighs your risk. ☑️ Risk/reward ratio: Only take trades with at least a 2:1 or 3:1 potential. You don’t need to win every trade — your winners should pay for your losers (and more). Remember: “It’s not about being right all the time. It’s about not losing big when you’re wrong.” Risk management won’t make your trades perfect — but it will keep you trading tomorrow. And in this game, staying in the game is everything. 💭 How do you handle risk in your trading? Drop your strategy or tip in the comments — let’s share and learn together! 👇 Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, we appreciate the support! All the best for a good week ahead. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
2
SPX Is Pure RiskAbsolutely insane for people to be saying things like "a new bull market" when it never ended. All of the risk is to the downside. If markets ran another 10% to the upside that gives investors a chance to determine if they want to buy a correction to see new highs or not. But to say that a bull market is coming is the antithesis of thinking when current risk is all downside. This is risk management 101: Lets say you have a SP:SPX target of 10,000, would you rather buy it at 6,500 where you know your downside is 7-8% or right here at 6300 with a potential downside of 22%+? Who in the market is long right now? Everyone because all the short sellers are stopped out, and the dumbest of money the guys who just got promoted to the rank of captain in the branch of hindsight bought the "breakout." The retracement to the highs has been one of the most hated rallies off of a bounce ever seen and why? Because it required a large amount of vibes and to a degree stupidity to buy where it bounced but it paid off. So if it was borderline stupid to do that, what does it mean to lever up at the top? The correct method is to either be short here or be patient for a breakout with volume and a successful retest. There you can limit your downside and have nearly unlimited upside if it plays out that way.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CrashoutCapital
Risk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment MattersRisk and Probability in Trading — Why Risk Assessment Matters More Than Chasing the “Holy Grail” In trading, most participants and analysts are focused on finding the so-called “Holy Grail” — the perfect entry point where the price moves in the desired direction and yields profit. However, few actually assess the risks involved, as if success is possible without factoring them in. Market reviews are often filled with levels, forecasts, and price directions, but rarely include probability estimates or potential losses. In my view, the real Holy Grail isn't a guaranteed profitable entry, but a scenario where the market offers a position with minimal risk relative to historical context. To identify such setups, we need a risk scale based on historical data — how favorable the current risk-to-reward ratio is compared to the past. It’s also crucial to understand that no one can predict price direction with certainty. The key to opening a position is not hope, but evaluating all possible scenarios — upward, downward, or sideways — and knowing the outcome in each case. Risk management is more than just placing a stop-loss; it’s a structured approach that should be central to any trading strategy. What Are Minimal Risks? “Minimal risk” is a relative concept — it only makes sense when measured against a defined scale. Building such a scale requires historical statistics: what were the maximum and minimum losses and profits for similar positions in the past? Profit-to-Loss Ratio The idea behind the search for the “Holy Grail” is to find moments when the market offers the best possible profit-to-risk ratio. For example, if the current ratio is 10, and historically it has ranged from 0 (low risk) to 100 (high risk), then 10 may be a good entry point. If the ratio approaches 80–90, it signals that the position is extremely risky. Why Are Probability and Risk Assessment Important? Market reviews often talk about resistance levels, volatility, and price direction — but rarely address the risks of different scenarios. No expert can predict market movements with certainty — if they could, they’d be billionaires. Opening positions without accounting for risks and scenario probabilities is extremely dangerous. How to Factor in Risks When Entering a Position The key question is: what will the profit-to-loss ratio be after entering a position, depending on whether the price goes up, down, or stays flat? It’s important to understand the consequences of each case and make decisions based on risk assessment. Risk Management Must Account for the Inability to React Instantly Conventional tools like stop-losses and limit orders often fail to protect capital effectively during sudden price spikes. These tools are particularly vulnerable when market makers or high-frequency algorithms trigger stop levels en masse. This highlights the need for more resilient risk management instruments — ones that can respond to volatility instantly and automatically. Options are one such tool, capable of limiting losses regardless of market dynamics. Without robust risk management, long-term profitability becomes statistically unlikely. Sooner or later, the market will present a scenario that can wipe out your capital — unless you’re properly protected. Important note: this is not an endorsement of options or any specific broker. It’s simply a conclusion based on the logic of building effective capital protection. If a broker only provides access to linear instruments (futures, spot, stocks) without the ability to hedge, it will inevitably lead to capital erosion — even for systematic traders. And if this article gets more than 100 rockets, I’ll continue sharing specific examples of low-risk trading assessments.
SP:SPX
by wien6000796
1
Crude Oil Prices Rocketing amid geopolitical risks NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! NYMEX:BZ1! Macro: Geopolitical tensions remain high and markets are now likely to price in our scenario discussing ongoing air and missile war, given one-off intervention from the US thus far. According to Reuters, the U.S. now assesses that Iranian retaliation could occur within the next two days.What happens next is anybody’s guess but as traders, it is important to navigate these uncertainties with scenario planning and/or reduce risk to account for increased volatility. We also get Services and Manufacturing PMI data today and PCE Price Index on Friday. Chair Powell is set to testify on Tuesday 9am CT. Key levels: Jan 2025 High: 76.57 2025 High: 78.40 2025 CVAH(Composite Value Area High): 75.68 Key LIS zone: 73.50-73.15 We anticipate the following scenarios in crude oil: Scenario 1: Prices remain elevated as tensions remain high, despite limited retaliation, however, the situation overall now escalated beyond return to diplomacy. Scenario 2: Any push towards de-escalation, unlikely in our analysis, but given the headline risk, crude prices may remain volatile and come off the highs. Given our key LIS (Line in Sand) zone above, we favor longs above this and shorts below this zone.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 20, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index has primarily exhibited downward trends during this week’s abbreviated trading session, narrowly failing to reach the targeted Mean Support level of 5940, as outlined in the previous Daily Chart Analysis. Currently, the index exhibits a bearish trend, suggesting a potential direction toward the Mean Support level of 5940, with an additional critical support level identified at 5888. Contrariwise, there exists a substantial likelihood that following the accomplishment of hitting the Mean Support of 5940, the index may experience recovery and ascend toward the Mean Resistance level of 6046. This upward movement could facilitate a resilient rally, ultimately topping in the completion of the Outer Index Rally at 6073, thereby enabling the index to address the Key Resistance level situated at 6150.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter