GBPJPY D1 - Long SignalGBPJPY is flirting between this 185 support price and 188 region, a solid 300 point range, we are hopeful to see a pullback and another opportunity to enter long from this 185 psychological price zone. From here we can look to targets 1R, 3R, 6R respectively.
A lucrative setup, with lots of mileage upside, nothing to say we can't target 190.00.
Riskoff
LIQUIDITY MATTERS! Global liquidity vs #BitcoinLook at how the bullish green arrows and bearish red arrows show how global liquidity correlates HEAVILY with the direction of Bitcoin. T
You don't have to be a genius to see how beautiful this correlation is.
And how sensitive #BTC is to excess capital in the system.
As a risk on asset
When ppl have easy money to gamble with , a portion of that ends up in the #Crypto markets.
Currently you can see how aggressive the withdrawal of liquidity is across the globe
In the USA, EU, China & Japan.
Stocks Are Turning Down After Three Wave Rally US yields are coming higher once again and looks like new high can show up soon, and this is something that is drving the USD higher. Even stocks are coming down this morning, cannot handle the USD strenght anymore so it appears that we ahve some risk-off flows at the moment which can last a few more sessions.
The elliott wave A-B-C rally on SP500, NASDAQ100 and even DAX is not looking good for the bulls.
Grega
just an observation. $SPY vs $IEF / $HYGAppears we are running out of risk appetite. Put also looks like we have built a very nice base for a significant move higher. Hopefully, that's a risk on move, not a risk-off move.
Personally, I believe we have already corrected in each individual sector, it just didn't happen all at once like it normally does.
According to this, risk aversion and sentiment have been flat in a range for the past few months according to IEF/HYG.
📈 The Trailing Stop Loss📍 What Is a Trailing Stop?
A trailing stop is a modification of a typical stop order that can be set at a defined percentage or dollar amount away from a security's current market price. For a long position, an investor places a trailing stop loss below the current market price. For a short position, an investor places the trailing stop above the current market price.
A trailing stop is designed to protect gains by enabling a trade to remain open and continue to profit as long as the price is moving in the investor’s favor. The order closes the trade if the price changes direction by a specified percentage or dollar amount.
📍Important Takeaways
🔹 A trailing stop is an order type designed to lock in profits or limit losses as a trade moves favorably.
🔹 Trailing stops only move if the price moves favorably. Once it moves to lock in a profit or reduce a loss, it does not move back in the other direction.
🔹 A trailing stop is a stop order and has the additional option of being a limit order or a market order.
🔹 One of the most important considerations for a trailing stop order is whether it will be a percentage or fixed-dollar amount and by how much it will trail the price.
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Continuation Wedge (Bullish) | 37% move possibleDirexion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares forms bullish "Continuation Wedge" chart pattern
"Continuation Wedge (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bear 3X Shares (WEBS:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $20.30 to the range of $27.00 - $28.50. The pattern formed over 15 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.
Tells Me: After a temporary interruption, the prior uptrend is set to continue.
A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time the bears attempt to win over the bulls, but in the end the bulls triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals a continuation of the prior uptrend.
$AUDJPY Is Falling. [Weekly Analysis]FX_IDC:AUDJPY Has broken a minor ascending channel formed since the corona dip in 2020. The significance of the breakout lies in a rejection occurred when tested an old channel extended since the 90s "1990 and 1995".
Levels of significance:
92.500 "+/-" = Anticipated correction range.
80.500 "+/-" = Anticipated target over the mid-term.
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#AHMEDMESBAH
Megaphone Bottom | 20% move possibleDirexion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares forms bullish "Megaphone Bottom" chart pattern
"Megaphone Bottom" chart pattern formed on Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL:NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $16.61 to the range of $19.60 - $20.30. The pattern formed over 16 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.
Tells Me: The recent broadening action tells us that trading has been out of control, but a breakout on the upside suggests we're starting a more decisive uptrend.
With its broadening price swings, the Megaphone represents a market that's unstable and out of control. It typically consists of two successively higher highs between three lower lows, and the reversal signal occurs when the price breaks up above the second peak (the highest high) as a sign of a more decisive bullish move.
Two methods to ensure no loss of principal
There are only two ways to avoid losing capital: one is to have a small stop-loss space (reflected in the entry position), and the other is not to bet too much at once. For example, buying one lot with $10,000 can earn $1,000, and buying ten lots with $100,000 can earn $10,000. Although the probability is the same, the more you do, the more you earn, and the less you do, the less you earn. However, controlling losses should be the top priority. As discussed earlier, if you buy too many lots this time and get stopped out, it will result in a big loss, which violates the principle of capital preservation.
Some traders become increasingly greedy after making profits and then add more positions. A typical behavior is adding positions. For example, if you bought 10 lots at first and then made a profit in the expected direction, the trader would blame himself for not buying more at the beginning. Then, he would begin to imagine that the market would continue to move in the expected direction and invest most of his capital in this product, let alone any correct practices such as taking profits in batches.
After you add more positions, it means that the cost has changed. Once the market reverses slightly, you will go from being profitable to losing money. At this point, you panic, lose your ability to think, and greed slowly turns into hope. You hope that this is only temporary, but the losses increase every moment. Perhaps you will have some luck a few times, but it won't be long before there is a risk of a big loss or liquidation.
It is important to understand that becoming rich cannot be achieved by just one market movement, so don't be obsessed with this one time. Greed makes people forget about risk, and don't always imagine that the market will move in the expected direction, ignoring the risk of the opposite trend. This is the key to keeping your capital out of danger.
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How to survive in the market for the long-term?
In the market, regret is a frequent word. Many people face the complex investment market and often feel fear, hesitation, and regret, whether it's before buying, after buying, after selling, or just watching without buying. How to avoid this phenomenon? The fear, hesitation, and regret are largely due to not knowing how to manage positions and follow the crowd. Often pursuing high probability profits results in the opposite.
Risk management is an unavoidable issue when it comes to this. Whether you are a financial master or an individual investor, the importance of risk management is paramount. To relax and operate in the market, you need to face your current situation, make correct judgments on the profit and loss ratio, determine your operating frequency and position management, and give yourself correct psychological guidance.
Everyone's personality is different, and their risk tolerance and trading styles are also different. There is no strategy that is 100% accurate, but if you want to survive in the market for a long time, you need to control risk. Don't be afraid of losses. Losses are inevitable, but the key is how much loss you can tolerate. This is the core of risk management. For small losses, we need to prepare ourselves psychologically. This is a link in risk management. Don't rely on luck. The losses brought about by a lucky mentality are incalculable.
About 70% of the time in market fluctuations is in oscillation, and only about 30% of the time is in a unilateral surge or decline. Therefore, accumulating small victories is the magic weapon for long-term success. Always wanting to go all-in and make a big move at once may result in missed profits due to not exiting in time. No matter what state you are in now, I hope I can bring you a little bit of help!
US10Y, risk is off.US10Y/1D
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
Reversed US 10 years bonds has been trading in a deep pull-back. The price has started showing some signs of strong bulls, which means that the market might need to price in for higher intrest rates. Aka. Risk is off.
Tarde safe,
Tarder Leo.
$XBI target zone if, IF, risk-off returnsOn the weekly chart, price seemed to be breaking down from a channel and then reversed course to move higher. If this is a rubberband reaction and risk-off resumes, then this monthly frame shows a 2nd leg down that could move to 62-58.
Alternatively, if risk-on stays the course to continue January's rise, then price moves up to the 20ma, 96-100 area. Watch daily chart to see if price stays over 87-88.
DXY predictions for 2023Now that a lot of sell side liquidity targets have been met on this week, I'd like to see it comeback up a bit to rebalance the weekly FVG then drop lower into the Monthly FVG cause it would be healthy for the next expansion to new highs on this cycle, final target 120 with bumps on the roads at the lvl I drawn my pink arrow
Tesla vs Pharma: Selling Safety to Take on RiskRisk on or risk off? Those kind of sentiment changes are one of the most important things for traders in the stock market. Today gave an example of how quickly the herd can sometimes pivot.
Tesla, a classic “risk on” name recently struggled near 52-week lows, while “safe-haven” Eli Lilly pushed to new record highs. But Thursday’s rally on softer inflation data seems to have changed all of that and drawn investors back to riskier growth stocks.
This process of selling safety and moving back to risk seems especially visible on the intraday chart below, which compares price action minute by minute. Notice how LLY slid early (despite a lack of news) as TSLA muscled higher. Next came an inversely correlated rebound in favor of LLY, followed by more downside in the drug stock and more upside in the electric-car maker.
Most traders know this process of risk on and risk off. But seldom does it appear so clearly. It’s a good lesson on the importance of sentiment in the market.
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The Rise of the Dollar Ends with a CrisisHistorical rallies regarding the US dollar show an unpreceded rise for high-risk assets, including stocks, which in the past had led to some sort of financial/economic crisis. For sure, always is very difficult to make an accurate forecast in price and in time, but we must not forget the explosion of the tech bubble in the 2000s, the ‘’Great Recession’’ in 2008, as well as the sovereign debt in 2012 since the one factor that has a high correlation to those declines, was the strengthening of U.S Dollar at least by 19% each time. Just to remind you that the benchmark S&P500 has already fallen by 23% this year.
An estimation from Morgan Stanley is that the profit margin of US companies will be dropped 0.5% for every 1% of the rising Dollar. And if we consider that during the fourth quarter due to the rise of the Dollar earnings will fall by about 10%, we can imagine the disaster that will follow in stocks, excluding other issues of energy costs. Moreover, the occurrence of major central banks’ policy tightening now in an aggressive manner is amazing. Therefore, this new bubble has to break out suddenly.
The possibilities are raising for more rate hikes, according to the recent stubbornly high inflation, which in turn will strengthen the Dollar even more. And this is good for the US because strengthening the dollar means cheaper imports and a record purchasing power for Americans. But for non-American citizens is bad and especially for the other Central Banks that have deposits in US dollars. It will be more expensive to repay their loans – companies and emerging market governments – since, from the debt data perspective, $83 billion dollars are going to be matured by the next year covering 32 countries. According to the World Bank, there are warnings of heading a global recession and many developing economies will face huge damages respecting the cutting in spending on education and health care to cover their debt payments.
What’s even more concerning for now is that volatility and VIX is still relatively low despite lower stocks. So is extreme fear yet to come? Check our VIX chart in one of our past ideas.