Bias Bearish Masih KekalThis week, the market moved into the previously marked pullback zone before consolidating for a while and eventually continuing its bearish move, aligning with the previous outlook.
At the moment, FCPO is still trading within a bearish market structure . Price is currently attempting to break below the 4,560 support level to establish a new Break of Structure (BOS) and confirm further downside momentum.
Looking ahead to next week, I see three possible scenarios :
1. Preferred Scenario
The market performs a pullback into a discount zone before continuing its move lower and printing a new BOS. If this scenario develops, traders may monitor the pullback for potential entry opportunities based on their own confirmation and trading plan.
2. Immediate Continuation
The market continues its bearish momentum without a meaningful pullback and breaks below the current structure to form a new BOS.
3. Alternative Scenario
The least preferred scenario is for the market to consolidate briefly before pushing higher, potentially indicating that a bullish trend reversal is beginning.
For now, we'll let the market reveal its next move. Stay patient, follow your trading plan, and always manage your risk.
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Disclaimer
This trading idea reflects my personal market analysis and opinion and is shared for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including FCPO futures contracts. Please conduct your own research (DYOR) and make your own trading decisions based on your risk tolerance and trading plan.
Sawit
FCPO: Bearish bias.Price is still within range between 4715 and 4370.
4H structure shown that overall price is moving lower.
Next week the target is for price to move lower towards 4520, 4438 and 4370.
If price can close below 4370 (maybe not next week) then the overall target would be the imbalances within the 4100 area.
If price defended the 4370 then we are going back into the range.
Happy trading 💰!
FCPO: Long or Short?MYX:FCPO1! Price stuck in range. If you like trading ranges then this is your market.
So where is next?
If price can break 4689 and close above it then we are breaking higher.
If price instead move lower and break Support #2 then it will be a long way down. Perhaps towards below 4000.
Since price failed to break any structure to go long last week, 4575 seems to be the resistance for now.
Happy trading 💰!
FCPO: Bullish?MYX:FCPO1! stuck in range between 4370 to 4687. If you plot the area you can probably see an ascending triangle developing. Top of the triangle is a horizontal line connecting two swing high at 4687. If price break and close higher then price would probably going bullish.
Right now price is more or less within the lower range of the triangle. If price close above 4533, I'm expecting it to bounce higher and if it can break 4595 then the eventual target for this long position is 4687.
Happy trading. 💰🚀
FCPO: Looking for SHORT.MYX:FCPO1! Price is still trapped within the range between 4687 and 4370. Overall bias still favors the bearish side.
There are three parameters to consider:
Parameter 1:
If price breaks 4518 and closes below it, bearish continuation is likely, initially toward 4445, then potentially toward 4370.
Parameter 2:
If price breaks 4575 and continues higher toward the 4600 area, the overall outlook remains bearish. Therefore, I will still be looking for short opportunities.
Parameter 3:
If price breaks 4575, continues higher, breaks the 4600 area, and closes higher, the bearish probability becomes lower. A further break above 4687 would be significant because 4687 is also a 4H swing high. A break above this level may signal that the bias is starting to shift bullish. In that case, it is better to stand aside and observe the next price action.
Happy trading 💰🚀.
FCPO: Bearish continuation...So FCPO had successfully making a retracement higher. This open up an opportunity to look for a new SHORT position. A close below 4510 would open up a move lower to 4370. However if price persisting higher and break above 4635 then probably stand aside because it would mean that bearish is weakening and probability of bullish increasing. So bearish view for now unless proven otherwise.
Happy trading ✌🏽💰🚀!
FCPO: Bearish update...Price retraced to the expected area. It then turns lower after and broke the previous higher high. Further than that it also continued lower and broke the support level. Right now expecting price to continue lower with first target is 4485 and eventually also targetiing the lower of the 4H support at 4410.
Happy trading ✌🏽💰!
FCPO: BEARISH in the making?Price still within 1W range of high at 5200 and low at 3640. 1D however showing signs that a bullish trend might be ending. However there is no confirmation yet on 4H. Next week expecting price to go higher to around 4700 area before giving any indication that bullish is ending.
Happy trading.
FCPO: Indecision - Long or Short?Price currently in range (as always with FCPO) and we are at decision inflection point. Two options:
1) Price BOS 4457 -> follow through long -> pullback towards 4457 = 4742 is the target long.
2) Price BOS 4370 -> follow through short -> pullback towards 4370 = 4177 is the target short.
Happy trading!
FCPO: New Year update.Bullish push is valid but the overall macro tilt is still bearish until proven otherwise. With bullish view a close above 4055 will open for further bullish to potentially 4100 level. This bullish will be invalidated if price close below 4032 then bearish is preferred with a target to 3965.
FCPO Xmas Update: Pullback to 3979 area.Based upon our Directional Efficiency model, the current bullish price action is lacking the bullish energy. It is not an expansion but rather a distribution/absorption. It seems that the bearish price action is still in dominance. The model expecting that price making a pullback towards 3979 price area. If bullish efficiency didn't improve then this area is not a bullish pullback but instead it would be a support and a break will signal a bearish continuation.
Happy trading!
FCPO Week 48 205: Another consolidation mode?Still in bearish mode but the move lower is losing a little bit of momentum even though Friday push lower look impressive. Look at 4H and you will see a bullish divergence that might indicate that price will retrace in a bearish macro trend. Another consolidation period is also possible. So bearish on higher timeframe but bearish in 4H is losing momentum and retracement or consolidation is a possibility.
FCPO Week 47 2025: Transition to bullish?Price is in consolidation. It has 2 weeks to follow through on the double top but so far it held. This might indicate that it is in transition to possibly going higher and bearish is losing momentum. Two options next week:
1) Price close and stay above 4200 then we might see price going bullish towards 4300 and 4400.
2) Price close and stay below 4070 then price possibly continue lower towards 3900.
Option 1 is most likely and have higher probability.
Happy trading.
FCPO Week 45 2025: Retrace or consolidation to continue bearish.Bearish overall. However there is a sign of bearish exhaustion.Price making swing lows but the momentum has declined thus signalling that price might retrace before resuming lower. However looking at 15m chart this retracement is not started yet. Still no higher low or higher high yet. Monday session might give a bit more idea. Retracing towards 4300 is possible but next week would probably where price going into consolidation then retracement before continuing lower.
Happy hunting!
FCPO Week 43 2025: Consolidation or bearish to 4300?Happy Deepavali!
Price has shifted from bullish to a potential bearish. Momentum to go higher has been greatly reduced. A key reversal created on Friday could be the Lower High for a bearish move.
There is a potential of double top. Still early since it is yet to confirm. If price can break and close below 4490 then bearish could go and test 4300. Price will confirm double top once if break below 4270 area.
If there is no momentum this week then another consolidation is expected with a view for a break to a lower price.
Happy trading.






















