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Commodities Are Waking Up From The SupportCommodities are waking up from the support with the help of China stocks and there's room for more upside. Bloomberg commodity index with ticker AW made a nice three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) correction with the wedge pattern into wave (C). Unless it has alternatively unfolded a leading diagonal from the highs. Anyway, in both cases we can expect a recovery, at least for a temporary period of time. Currently we can see it nicely breaking out of projected wedge pattern, which indicates for a bigger recovery, at least back to the starting point of the that wedge pattern near 120 area, or maybe even higher if correction is completed.
CBOT:AW1!Long
by ew-forecast
Natural Gas crash?Natural gas has crashed when comparing it to the DBC commodity ETF. If a recession takes hold, demand destruction always prevails and it looks like Nat gas is pricing this in. This price action could be a leading indicator that many other commodities may be vulnerable to a pullback. Since Natural Gas is one of the smaller components of this ETF, it can see a large influx of capital that has to stay long by rotating out of other overbought commodities. Natural gas has broken out before the DBC and it has bottomed before the DBC. Nat Gas has the largest divergence from its peers.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by Trading-Capital
1
Natural Gas: Commodity DivergencesThe correlation between DBC (orange line) and Nat Gas is strong. However, Nat Gas gas does have price history where it diverges, leads & lags the average DBC price action. The white arrows on the screen display the periods where Nat Gas And DBC (in orange) diverge. Some of the divergences have lead to steep pops & drops of mean reversion. What were seeing now is a massive divergence of about -33%, Nat gas has crashed and is the number one underperforming commodity in this basket. Nat gas has retraced back to the Pre Covid low levels. Looking at the DBC ETF its about 33% off the Pre Covid Lows. Over history the correlation usually tightens up and it has a long way to go to close the gap divergence. This presents one of 3 scenarios.. 1. Other commodities in the basket collapse 2. Natural Gas Rallies 3. Both options (Our Base Case)
NLong
by Trading-Capital
Goldman Sachs Commodity index, WEEKLY TIME FRAMEIn review of Goldman Sachs commodity index on a weekly time frame, price action from the year 2000- 2008 is regarded as an impulse that is recognized on the chart as an A, followed by corrective price action resulting in a triangle formation (ABCDE) from the year 2008 to 2020, end of which is marked by B. As the principle of market structure highlights the significance of (impulse, correction, impulse) in completing a market cycle. 2020 onwards to a foreseeable future it is expected that an impulse is in formation resulting in C leg that is projected in the chart. It is noteworthy that an impulse should have at least 5 waves with 2 and 4 being corrective legs, and 3rd being the strongest out of 5 waves as indicated in A leg of the structure. The uptrend of an A leg is followed by a corrective price action, in this case the corrective structure put in place consisting of (ABCDE) came into play as a triangle. A fib retracement of A leg found corrective support at .786 which in my experience is often institutional way of taking out stop losses before continuation of the trend, as witnessed a strong upward price action that broke out of triangle to continue the c leg, it’s worth highlighting that traditional target of breaking out of a triangle structure in in confluence with C leg target of a bigger trend. As C leg is of an impulse, it means there should be a minimum of 5 waves inside it as projected on the chart. Although the upward trend is intact on higher time frames, I believe we are in 4th wave of c leg, meaning a correction is due before continuation of an uptrend to give us the finish of c leg. The analysis above on higher time frames compliments the price action on smaller time frames as evident below. A corrective structure of ABC is in play in the 4th leg before continuation of the uptrend. One of the characteristics of 4th leg is that it should not go below .38 fib level of the entire move. Therefore, more downside is projected to complete the ongoing structure. Ideally, we would like to see a strong bounce at the .38 fib zone followed by sideways movement as a confirmation of continuation of an uptrend.
SP:SPGSCILong
by MSKcapital
Gold Outlook 20th March 2023Gold traded significantly higher last week, due to several key events; 1) gross market uncertainty increased as banks collapse (SVB and Credit Suisse). 2) flight toward the reserve commodity 3) weakness in the DXY Currently, the price is retracing and is trading along the 1973 price level, with further downside expected. The price is likely to test the support level of 1956 which sits between the 23.60% and 38.20% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, as the uptrend of Gold remains strong, anticipate the retracement to be brief with the price likely to rebound from the support to trade higher again. The next key resistance level is at the round number level of 2,000 which was last visited in April 2022
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JinDao_Tai
2
easyMarkets Silver Daily - Quick Technical OverviewOn February 15th we mentioned there might be a possible falling wedge pattern forming, meaning that we could see some short-term advances. Indeed, the commodity broke out higher, however, in order to continue with the upside, a push above the 21.82 barrier would be needed. But even then we would only aim for the 200-day EMA, or even the 100-day EMA. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:XAGUSD
by easyMarkets
2
easyMarkets Gold Daily - Quick Technical OverviewAfter another week of declining, Gold has reached one of our targets, near the 100-day EMA. On Monday we mentioned the target in our quick morning analysis. If the commodity today remains above the that EMA, we may see a slightly rebound towards the short-term tentative downside resistance line. However, a decent fall below the 1825 hurdle could clear the path towards the 200-day EMA. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD
by easyMarkets
Copper & Stocks DivergingCopper and S&P500 is making a divergence. Could this mean that we are going to be seeing weakness creep into the real estate market with Lumber and copper falling recently? SPY has tracked copper closely with the rise & fall in inflation and yields. The most used commodity in the world should provide pivotal insights into the next turn in the market. If we do enter disinflation/deflation that's typically not positive for equties despite the "soft landing" narrative.
CAPITALCOM:COPPER
by Trading-Capital
Ag Sector (DE and AGCO) trading inline with Ag Commodity FuturesThe peak highs in DE and AGCO during bullish markets tend to coincide with the highs in Corn Futures. DE (Deer & Co) and AGCO are attractive growth and dividend paying stocks that do well in steady to strong economies even without strong Ag futures markets because of their exposure to the construction and infrastructure sectors . They tend to over-perform in years of Bullish Commodity Markets and Inflationary driven markets just as they have done since the 2020 lows. But just like Ag Futures, the stocks rise Fast and Fall hard. If the Funds decide to leave one (either equities or futures), the other seems to follow lower.
NYSE:DE
by mtb1980
Is silver about to break out? Commodities by themselves are not deflationary! They are dug out of the earth, and that both needs technology and people! The demand for gold and silver is higher, it becomes even higher when there is an industrial application to it. Along with inflation, it cost more and more to refine and dig out Silver/Gold! it cost more for machinery and people. Is Silver about to break out, this will be the 3rd time it will hit resistance, and this breaks then all the algo's will follow and drive it higher and higher. Its been a very long time since we had a commodity super cycle.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Macro-Traders-Strategies
DBA - Invesco Agriculture Fund Commodities are currently repricing lower due to the looming global slowdown. Meaning, there is more potential downside for commodities However, There are more significant tailwinds that will push commodity prices higher in the longer term. DBA ETF broke out of yearly downtrend in 2020 indicating that higher food prices are in the global outlook for the upcoming years. A pullback is probably overdue but after prices stabilize, we can see the DBA ETF push significantly higher. The first stop is fair value (red line).
AMEX:DBALong
by brandonmattis