mtb1980

mtb1980 Pro+

Continuous Cattle: The gray vertical bars represent the expiration month of labeled contract and have prices of each contract as of today labeled. The 2019 low has provided a pivot for a parallel uptrend line (highlighted in yellow) that has acted as a strong magnet since moving up off the covid crash low. Any of the lines could act as support/resistance. ...

mtb1980 Pro+

Cattle, Corn, and S&P 500: The fundamentals may be different now compared to in 2008, but I think these 3 markets are well intertwined. The effect of a major drawdown in the equities could impact all markets for a time. It sure seems that Cattle have some strong fundamentals to make a run up as it did from 2010 to 2014, but the timing of when that potential...

mtb1980 Pro+

The market is not looking to find “Fair Value” in this current “Fear Driven” Market. Any thoughts on upside and downside risk above and/or below current prices should be considered… The fundamentals to support a bullish market remain in place for this corn market. I still believe the job of this market is to see prices high enough to ration demand. A narrow...

mtb1980 Pro+

10yr KC Wheat outlook: Potential course of the KC Wheat market for the next 10 years. Overall the Wheat chart takes a more gradual incline up over the past 50 years but when the market gets spooked, prices can rally in a violant way. After this market tops, I feel the World’s supply and demand fundamentals of all Ag Commodities could support a more gradual...

mtb1980 Pro+

KC Wheat – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous major bull markets of the past 50 years. Currently the 24 mo ROC high was set in March at 225% with a price of 12.99. If KC Wheat is to match the 06-08 ROC of 275%, then that would project a price of $15.00 **Disclosure** Do not take this as trading advice. The potential is there...

mtb1980 Pro+

Corn – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous 4 major bull markets of the past 50 years. Previous price action on charts are often used for support and resistance. I like to look at rate of change during certain periods. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 140% and compares to the 95-96 and the 11-12 rally’s. The previous all time high...

mtb1980 Pro+

Beans – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous major bull markets of the past 50 years. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 92%. If beans move to the upper trendline in the $20.00 area it would be a 130% ROC and would “pale in comparison” to the 06-08 and 71-73 bull markets. A 200% ROC on the charts would look very ugly to some and...

mtb1980 Pro+

10yr Corn outlook: Potential course of the Bean market for the next 10 years. Previous inflationary markets have caused for the multi year market structure to step up in price ranges. Before that range is found, Beans will need to mark a pivot high enough to ration some future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future...

mtb1980 Pro+

10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the current market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be current price, 8.50, or 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the...

mtb1980 Pro+

E-mini S&P 500 (futures) – Daily: Pitchfork trend is maintaining momentum lower and price action has tested the median line support. If price action moves below then look for support/risk against the lower level line. Should ES catch a bounce look for resistance against the upper level line.

mtb1980 Pro+

E-mini S&P 500 (futures) – Daily: Momentum Indicators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI) Trying to maintain upward momentum, but mostly neutral. Ichimoku (at a glance) Indicator(s) Blue Tenkan and Red Kijun support at 4435. Cloud support just above at 4456. Yellow Lagging indicator coming up against a previous strong uptrend move. Will that catch current price action for...

mtb1980 Pro+

E-mini S&P 500 (futures) – Weekly: Momentum Indicators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI) Trying to maintain upward momentum, but mostly neutral. Ichimoku (at a glance) Indicator(s) Blue Tenkan line and Cloud support at 4366 held last week and so far this week. Yellow Lagging (26wk) indicator is attracted to previous price action and has been retracing previous prices the...

mtb1980 Pro+

Momentum Indicators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI) turning lower from being over sold Ichimoku (at a glance) Indicator(s) Blue Tenkan line acting as Support/Resistance as ES has consolidated above and below the 4500 area for the past 6-9 months. A break below has support/risk down at the 3500 area marked by the Red Kijun line. The yellow Lagging (26mo) indicator is...

mtb1980 Pro+

Lumber and 30 year Mortgage – weekly scale: FRED 30 year rates lag most mortgage rates already above 5%. It has been since 2018 since rates were above 5% and lumber was sub 300.00. High priced lumber (any high priced commodity) will eventually correct itself. High prices cure high prices. Now the pinch is on and rates are reacting. Cost of money is no longer...

mtb1980 Pro+

When carry out stocks are plentiful and the market structure is more definable, spreads seem easy to manage. In the current domestic and world market structure of strong demand and less supply, it seems that trying to add value to hedges with capturing carry may be more of a risk play. It is wise to manage the risks we know and the risks we can. Carry...

mtb1980 Pro+

When carry out stocks are plentiful and the market structure is more definable, spreads seem easy to manage. In the current domestic and world market structure of strong demand and less supply, it seems that trying to add value to hedges with capturing carry may be more of a risk play. It is wise to manage the risks we know and the risks we can. Carry...

mtb1980 Pro+

The bigger picture look at the US Dollar shows the potential for much higher, or lower from where the multi year latteral chop between 90.00 and 100.00 has been trading. A breakout above 103, would have the US Dollar searching for the 88% target at 115.00. Cloud support at 96.00 Area

mtb1980 Pro+

The high to low cycle in the dollar is looking to complete the primary target at the 88% retracement price at 102.25. **High to low cycle: Pivot high to Low retracement and have price action surpass the 24% retracement and downtrend line. Move up to fill the 38% target and hold uptrend without making a new low. Further upside targets Resistance above at...