Bloomberg Bloomberg Commodity Index AWH CONTRACT UNIT $100 times the Bloomberg Commodity Index
PRICE QUOTATION Index points
TRADING HOURS CME Globex: MON-FRI 8:15am-1:30pm
CME ClearPort: Sunday - Friday 5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m. (6:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. ET) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 4:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. ET)
MINIMUM PRICE FLUCTUATION .10 Index point ($10.00 per contract)
BTIC: 0.01 index point ($1.00 per contract)
PRODUCT CODE CME Globex: AW
CME ClearPort: 70
Clearing: 70
BTIC: AWT
LISTED CONTRACTS Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
SETTLEMENT METHOD Financially Settled
TERMINATION OF TRADING 3rd Wednesday of contract month/ 1:30pm
SETTLEMENT PROCEDURES Bloomberg CI Settlement Procedures
POSITION LIMITS CBOT Position Limits
EXCHANGE RULEBOOK CBOT 29
BLOCK MINIMUM Block Minimum Thresholds
PRICE LIMIT OR CIRCUIT None
VENDOR CODES Quote Vendor Symbols Listing
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Millennial Commodity Trend Thesis As we approach the end to the first week of 2021's trade we are taking note of the developing long-term trends within the commodity cycle. History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme - As times change so do commodities. In today's world, water, solar power, cannabis, and cryptocurrency are the hot items.Ultimately the democratic sweep will provide an acceleration in these developments.
BTC Now a Commodity, Mimics GoldI'm not sure how to explain exactly what I'm seeing in these charts. But when I place Gold, USD, and BTC on the same graph, it looks like BTC has a more intimate inverted relationship with the USD than the price of Gold. Even the puny spikes that BTC had before it took off have corresponding feedback from the USD at exactly the same time. Why? Are people co-opting BTC as a sort of quasi-commodity investment that substitutes market volitility for hyper-volitility in a single investment that promises massive long-term gains? I mean, if this is the case, and the USD is really going to burst as it should, BTC seems like THE choice of the last 2 decades.
4th Extended Drive Gold Shorts Explained. Shorting Gold into 1850.00 as mentioned on prev analysis. Commodity went 60-70 pips past crucial weekly level to take out all intraweek/swing sellers and also putting in buyers into the market. It has made 200+ pips in just the Assian session so im expecting a intraday meltdown into the current LOD for the next two sessions ahead. Feeling confident about the move but anything can happen in this market so trade smart. Let's grab this bag for Christmas! Peace Out
COFFEE FUTURE : POTENTIALLY SOMETHING BIG TO COMEENGLISH
- Prices have been evolving below a bearish trendline, registering lower highs but no significant new market bottoms since May 2011. The long-term trend is then neutral.
- However, even though prices have still been consolidating laterally over the last year, they also managed to clear their bearish trendline by successfully rebounding multiple times over the 87.00/103.75 zone, registering what looks like a reversal rounding bottom pattern . In addition, volumes have been on the rise during all the testing phase of the support zone while the DMI shows an increasing bullish pressure inside a more and more directional movement.
- It is still hard to talk about a strong bullish reversal here as the market hasn’t registered any new highs. However, this year’s bullish breakout tells us the bearish trend is now over while positive signs on technical indicators (transaction volumes and DMI) demonstrate buyers ‘interest for the asset. It seems the slow dance around the strong psychological and technical level of 100.00 has been an opportunity for bull traders to try to regain control of the market. In this configuration, the bullish scenario remains the most likely but a market close below the 103.75/95.00 zone would invalidate or, at least, delay the bullish potential towards 140.00, 172.00, 198.00 and 224.00 by extension.
NB : Coffee has been overperforming the Bloomberg Commodity Index since October 2019
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FRENCH
- Les prix ont évolué sous une ligne de tendance baissière, enregistrant des sommets de plus en plus bas mais aucun nouveau creux de marché significatif depuis mai 2011. La tendance long-terme est donc neutre.
- Cependant, même si les prix ont consolidé latéralement au cours des dernières années, ils ont également réussi à s’affranchir de leur ligne de tendance baissière de long-terme en rebondissant à de multiples reprises au-dessus de la zone 87.00/103.75, en s’inscrivant dans ce qui semble être une figure haussière de creux en soucoupe. De plus, les volumes ont été en hausse durant toute la phase de test de la zone support alors que le DMI affiche une pression acheteuse grandissante au sein d’un mouvement de plus en plus directionnel.
- Il est toujours compliqué de parler d’un fort renversement à la hausse alors que le marché n’a toujours pas effectué de plus haut significatif. Cependant, le franchissement technique de cette année nous confirme que la tendance baissière de long-terme est désormais terminée alors que les signes positifs rapportés par les indicateurs techniques (volumes de transaction et DMI) nous démontrent un regain d’intérêt des acheteurs pour l’actif. Il semblerait que la lente dance des prix autour du niveaux technique et psychologique fort des 100.00 a été une opportunité pour les acheteurs de tenter de reprendre le contrôle du marché. Dans cette configuration, le scénario haussier reste le plus probable mais toute clôture de marché en-dessous de la zone 103.75/95.00 invaliderait ou, du moins, diffèrerait le potentiel haussier vers 140.00, 172.00, 198.00 puis 224.00 par extension.
NB : le café superforme l’indice Bloomberg des matières premières depuis Octobre 2019.
Elliott Wave View: Support Area for SilverElliott Wave View of Silver (XAG) suggests the cycle from September 1 high has ended as wave (1) at 25.82 low. From there, the metal bounce higher in wave (2). The correction unfolded as zigzag Elliott Wave Structure. Up from wave (1) low, wave A ended at 27.48 high. The dip in wave B ended at 26.54 low. Afterwards, the metal resumed higher and ended wave C at 27.60 high. This ended wave (2) in the higher degree. Since then, the commodity has resumed the decline lower.
Down from wave (2) high, wave 1 ended at 26.26 low. The subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 26.98 low and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 27.43 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 26.69 low and wave ((iv)) bounce ended at 26.94 high. The push lower in wave ((v)) ended at 26.26 low. The metal then bounced higher in wave 2, which ended at 27.22 high. Afterwards, the metal resumed lower in wave 3, which ended at 23.67 low. The bounce in wave 4 ended at 25.24 high. Currently, wave 5 is in progress. As long as 27.60 stays intact, expect the bounces in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside. The 100 – 161.8% extension from August 7 high is at 18.36 – 22.39 area. If reached, that area can see support for 3 waves bounce at least.
The concerns in the commodity market and the political problemsThe concerns in the commodity market and the political problems faced by Moscow are slowing down the Russian ruble, allowing the also weak US dollar to steadily advance against in the trading sessions. In fact, the trading pair is on track to reach its resistance level by the latter part of the month. Moreover, crude prices are seen climbing up right now as a hurricane continues to lash out in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the main worry for the oil market is the expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will cut back on its estimates for global crude oil demand. If the demand will be adjusted lower, oil prices could fall down in the trading sessions, pulling the Russian ruble along with it. Meanwhile, the US dollar is also seen slowing down thanks to the jitters felt by investors as they wait for the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s last official meeting before the highly anticipated US Presidential Elections next month.






















