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BTC Total Market Dominance. Can you spell Technical?COINBASE:BTCUSD Even the veteran technicians can appreciate the beauty in these efficient markets. Ask in the comments if you don't understand the significance behind where the arrows are pointed. Disregard the indicators... The value is in the price action. For instance, the 0.618 retracement - pulled from the wave 2 of the decline to end of 5 - #to the tick - confluent with the 1.618 of the first wave projected from the 2nd wave. Algo targets are also hit flawlessly on this chart. We now are seeing a descending triangle which can also be interpreted as a bullish pennant. Either way, we are poised for a breakout in one of the directions by Q3 of this year. This means either BTC will increase it's dominance drastically or we will have an alt season. There are two sides to this camp both with valid arguments. I however, personally lean towards the alt season camp, and recognize that having one doesn't rule out the other. Bitcoin maximalists such as Tone Vays, where they have a sound theory as to why BTC should gain market cap as it is the godfather of cryptos - must take into account that there is still a limitless potential for new altcoins to be created and during the bear markets the builders have been building and many coins which have survived the cryptopalypse have very sound real world applications.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Attilathekilla
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 292)Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge Consensio: Price > Short MA > Medium MA > bearish Long MA with golden cross. Signaling 75% long entry but I wanted to be fully out of positions before starting the challenge. I will be ready to make some moves tomorrow. Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | The cup and handle that I was watching for failed to confirm, that is quite bearish. Horizontals: Looking at the daily candles and you can see resistance and support moving down over the past 5 days. Currently S = $3,691 & R = $3,820 Trendline: Appears to be forming a trend from the top off Nov 29. Parabolic SAR: Just printed the second bearish SAR at $4,225 BTCUSDSHORTS: Back under the trendline. Most bullish indicator I have seen yet, looks ready for a squeeze. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0056% Contango / Backwardation: Backwardation, another bullish indicator. TD’ Sequential: Price flip Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen is acting as resistance Average Directional Index: Back below 10, looks ready for a trend Price Action: 24h: 2.7% | 2w: +3.8% | 1m: -8.0% Bollinger Bands: Trending bullish with price on top Relative Strength Index: Consolidating 50 Stochastic Oscillator: Still pulling back Summary: Happy New Year everyone! It feels great to be back! Going through this process today reminded me of why it is so important to go through all of my indicators on a consistent basis. I have been very bearish since Christmas Eve when we tried to breakthrough $4,080 to confirm the cup and handle. That is mainly due to the shooting star candle that was a bull trap. Great example of why you wait for the pattern to confirm AND wait for the candle to close. Nevertheless I feel differently immediately after going through my process. Bullish Case I like how much time we are spending above the 33 MA. If it stays there much longer then we will turn it up and that could see a fully bullish posture. I also like the BTCUSDSHORTS’ back under the trendline and primed for a squeeze. There is Backwardation in the futures market while the price is gaining over the prior 2 weeks and that is very bullish. Lastly, the Bollinger Band is in a bullish setup. Bearish Case Resistance and support have been moving down over the prior four days. The 33 MA is still signaling a bear trend. The Parabolic SAR was recently broken and is now bearish. In Conclusion I am staying away until the diagonals have broken. I am leaning bullish and will consider setting a stop buy order in the neighborhood of $3,861. I am not considering a stop sell order if we breakdown. That is because it is against Consensio and if I want to enter against Consensio it is a no trade zone. In that circumstance I would just wait for those guidelines to signal a sell entry. I hope everyone had a marvelous 2018. I know I did! The lessons learned will serve me a lifetime! It would take 10+ years in the traditional markets to learn what we had the opportunity to experience in crypto last year. A special thanks goes out to the brilliant teachers we have such as: Tyler Jenks, Tone Vays, Nick CryptoCore, UglyOldGoat, CarpeNoctom, David Puell and MustStopMurad. Thank you all for everything that you do!!! With all of the free resources available it has never be more realistic than it is now to learn how to consistently beat the markets. The opportunity is unprecedented. Even if you didn’t have the best year personally then there is never a better time to make something happen than right now. Not because it is New Year's but because it is right now! Start with a plan and then take action. If that is intimidating or hasn’t worked in the past then start with the smallest thing you can think of, like making your bed, and commit to that on a daily basis. Then build a positive trend, expect a pullback to retest old lows and stay focused on breaking through to higher highs, such as washing the sheets. In order to provide inspiration I have started the 2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge and posted my complete trading strategy and process . As always don't hesitate to comment with any questions. Start small, think big
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
New Call for the Bottom in BitcoinI believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019. I thought that a breakdown from $6,000 to below $4,000 would cause capitulation and then I thought that support would be found slightly below $3,000. $2,718 to be exact. I was wrong. That definitely was not capitulation. Now I am very confident that we have a long way to go before find a bottom, falling to $2,718 would definitely not be enough. However I want to be very clear about the following: A return to phase 1 is not my call for a bottom in Bitcoin', it is Tyler Jenks' call. He has been saying this loud and clear for a long time and he has been mostly speaking to a deaf / angry audience. He continues to be right at each step of the way, yet the large majority continue to doubt / ignore / troll him. Including me, until recently. "As a technical analyst I know that nothing is 100%. I am embarrassed to say that hyperwave is 100% in terms of when you break a phase 2 that you go all the way back down to the phase 1. In this case it's $1,000. I would love it if this was the first time ever, out of 100's of examples, that this is not true." -Tyler Jenks at 17:28 in the following video: www.youtube.com I know enough about hyperwaves to have confidence in a return to phase 1 above anything else. I'm not shorting at these prices, stay tuned for the daily update to learn why, however I am also no longer a buyer from $2,700 - $3,000. This is a very important distinction and the explanation mostly lies within the risk:reward implications. There is one more distinction that I would like to make: the difference between bitching out on a great entry that you have waiting patiently for and the times when new information is presented and adjustments should be made accordingly. I have been planning on buying my Bitcoin back once the price got below $3,000 for months (sold $11,000 & $7,000). Those months felt like years and I have the gray hairs to prove it. However I know that I need to adjust my plans based on new information and I am confident that it isn't due to giving into any FUD. The main reason I am confident about that is because I have fallen victim to fear, uncertainty and doubt one too many times and I know what it feels like. The bottom line is I don't really sense any of that now and that is the main reason I feel like we have a long way to go before capitulation. Okay, enough of my input. Watch Tyler Jenks podcast on Youtube. Register for his upcoming webinar on Saturday. Then register for his presentation on hyperwaves at Tone Vays' Unconfiscatable conference in Las Vegas. If you do the latter then I will even buy you a beer after it is over and we can talk about all of the money we are going to make!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
6
The Bitcoin vs. Gold comparison you've seen before but forgotI'm not the original person to notice the parallels between the monthly chart of Gold and the weekly chart of Bitcoin, but the current conditions of the market warrant a revisit of the comparison. What the comparison ultimately shows, to me, is the acceleration of human perception of Bitcoin, relative to Gold, based on price action - and the inevitable period of time in which Bitcoin is seen in equal light as Gold. The purpose of the article here is to build a less emotional case for the price predictions/levels being thrown around for Bitcoin, seeming to indicate a general haste to figure out how this low volatility period will end. Using the Gold chart as an anchoring point for human behavior, it's important to keep in mind high emotion price predictions ($1000 or $100,000) are not going to happen overnight... leaving a lot of meat on the bone for traders to chew on in the interim. Obviously this long note is a reflection of my current thoughts on the cryptocurrency market, currently consolidating, with the overall trends being more important than the day-to-day swings. Perspective - Why compare these charts and why the difference in period? Some may balk at a comparison of two very different time periods (monthly for Gold and weekly for Bitcoin) and consider conclusions drawn from the comparison tenuous at best. Human behavior is the fundamental basis for technical analysis, so how can we conceptualize how behavior over a monthly chart be equivalent to behavior over a weekly chart? Consider the following: (1) Innate differences in the market participants of Gold and Bitcoin . Note one big difference between these markets and a shortcoming of this comparison is that Gold is an asset traded/held by central banks and large financial institutions around the world. That said, consider the following. For Bitcoin, over the period shown from 2016-now, the exponential advance was fueled by FOMO that was mediated through a high-throughput conduit - the Internet. Trending articles, social networks, and media outlets quickly spread the message that Bitcoin was going to the moon. For Gold, over the period shown from ~2002-now, the exponential advance was fueled by arguably risk-off behavior proximal to the dot-com bubble and likely further fueled by the '08 financial crisis. Consider the general differences in the composition of participants. For Bitcoin, it was likely composed of both tech-savvy and get rich quick mindsets, operating on the rapid dispersion of information over the internet; for Gold, it was likely longer-term focused investors, hedgers, gold bugs, and/or central banks around the world, whose outlooks are based on monthly/yearly trends. For this comparison note - human behavior is the same, but the time horizon of both participants is different. (2) Innate differences in the market structure . The maturity of the Gold market and millennia of trading provide participants innumerable ways to invest within the market. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is still a developing market with limited ways for global participation, leading to transient inefficiencies (recall the many potential arbitrage opportunities of 2017). HOWEVER, and this is a big one, consider the average person's ability to purchase the real underlying asset of Gold or Bitcoin, keeping in mind the differences in market participants outlined in (1) above. If we consider the average individual, purchasing Bitcoin (via exchange or otherwise) has a more direct impact on the underlying asset price than purchasing Gold (often via jewelry or coins). This is for many reasons, including (a) liquidity and (b) inelastic supply of Bitcoin - while supply may increase as a result of Hodlers selling, there is a discrete supply that is stable from Bitcoin mining, compared with Gold, whose supply is more elastic as Gold miners adjust output to meet demand. Given the more direct effect on price movement for Bitcoin, the quicker the emotional cycles will likely follow. (3) Liquidity . I think everyone can agree that the liquidity in Bitcoin is very low, in part because of: (a) the low-time preference of Hodlers, (b) country-specific legality of public exchanges/Bitcoin, and (c) low global adoption (relative to other global asset markets). Low liquidity is a perfect environment for high volatility, likely resulting in cycles that occur quicker on average. (4) Similarity between Gold and Bitcoin . I don't think it's worth belaboring the point that Bitcoin is the digital store of value equivalent of Gold, with further improvements (and some caveats). That is half the reason for the comparison here, with the other half being the similarity in price action between the two assets, albeit on different time frames. So hopefully this quells some of the arguments against the rational comparison of two very distinct time periods occurring over very distinct economic and global conditions, when trying to compare the effect of human behavior on price between Gold and Bitcoin. Key Chart Comparisons in Price levels Price Level Labeling I started labeling the levels for comparison "1" based on the first level from which an obvious resistance levels was created, broke, and re-tested before continued advance. Some may argue that the nature of price action at level "1" on the Gold chart more resembles the level "2" on the Bitcoin chart - I would agree from this standpoint to some extent, but feel more strongly about a defined resistance level that is made, broke, and supported (~1000 for Gold and ~3000 for Bitcoin). Level 2 is a very important level that was established as a local low for Gold in December 2015 and on the comparative Bitcoin chart is at ~4950, which is a level I anticipate to be hit sometime over the next month. Note this level was an important top last Summer that was never tested as support, similar to Gold (2008-2010). This is the level from which I would look to long for a trade to level 3. Level 3 for Gold represents a long-period of price history around which consolidation occurred from 2013-2015. Interestingly, this level held in June and December 2013 before a semi-breakdown in late 2014, followed by a strong swing up in early 2015 testing the log advance line, before continual drop to level 2. For Bitcoin, we can see similar price action, with support at ~6500 for close to a year now, testing twice in February and April of 2018, followed by a strong swing up in July 2018, testing the MA 50 line. We're now entering the boxed green area shown in both charts. For the continued validity of trading from level 3 to 2, we'll need to see continued support at the 5000 level over the next few weeks. This is the only way the fractal comparison of Bitcoin and Gold will hold as shown. Level 4 will likely be the long-term resistance that will keep Bitcoin under consolidation for longer than some care to consider, around 8500. Note how important this level has been for Gold. Based on the comparison here, I would expect Bitcoin to "catch-up" to Gold and both break level 4 together, marking a period of time in which the concept of Bitcoin is on the same level as a store of value as Gold. From there, I would expect Bitcoin to gain ground and eventually outperform Gold. When level 5 comes into play for Gold and Bitcoin, I would expect Bitcoin to vastly outperform Gold at this respective level, given the respective time frames spent around the level for each. This is the point at which I anticipate Bitcoin to outperform Gold long-term as a store of value. When articles with titles like "Bitcoin dethrones Gold" and "Bitcoin, the new Gold" will be widespread. When does this comparison breakdown? When it does. Who knows? Only time can tell. This is simply my best current understanding of the comparison between these two different, yet strongly linked (i.e., store of value thesis), markets. The near-term comparison outlining the proximal Bitcoin trade from level 2 to 3 can be invalidated by a high volume breakdown from 4950 and weak price action around the log advance line. From there, expect to see 3000s, around which we had a long-term Summer consolidation in Bitcoin last year and around where the MA 200 may be (somewhere 3000-3500). Defending against this breakdown is easy, as outlined in the trading thesis below. Trading thesis for this outlook The simple trade idea here is a long from ~4950 (likely requiring spreading your buys across a range, as one can never predict exact levels), from which some profit is taken at ~6500 and then at the declining MA 50 and ~8500 level. This would be a trade for someone looking to swing across multi-week periods. Appropriate position sizing, stops around 4700-4800, and/or hourly/daily price analysis for finding a bottom will be required for good risk/reward metrics. For someone looking to add as part of a longer-term thesis (levels 4, 5 and above), then ~4950 is simply an add level, followed by ~3100-3300. A small allocation, relative to the low probability occurrence of a $1000 Bitcoin, is also relevant, as discussed below. Note also the log advance line also indicates the likely strong support around 5000, so even in the face of volatility, I would be looking fro strong closes above these levels. However, I would expect that over 2019 this log advance line does not hold, as we move away from irrational exuberance to a more mature asset class. How does this align with other major personalities out their in the Bitcoin trading space? Tone Vays has discussed his price level around 4950s, 3000s, and 1300s at length, roughly aligning with the perspective laid out here, though differing of course on trading strategy and thought process involved. 4950 will be hit for sure and likely a resolution at 3000, before his descending triangle idea trade wraps up. Just trying to summarize his points here, not state them word for word - see his many live streams if you want more information, similar to everyone below. Tyler Jenks, of Hyperwave reputation, has a strong belief that if we don't hold ~6000 by the end of the day today (weekly chart), we're definitely headed to the 1000s (while acknowledging we can go much higher for an unknown period of time before an inevitable move to 1000s or lower , based on his hyperwave strategy. While I'm not a big follower of the Hyperwave strategy, I fully appreciate his strategy and the probabilities implied by the strategy (100% according to the theory). However, I have never seen or heard of a trading strategy that is 100% accurate. For this reason alone, I would generally discount the idea and simply hedge against this event by allocating a small portion of my total exposure to Bitcoin as cash, to be used for purchasing around 1000 if this actually played out - the proportion of which is sized according to my personal risk tolerance and store of value thesis for Bitcoin. Mike Novogratz, having been heavily publicized over the past year, recently put a cap of ~9000 on Bitcoin by year end 2018. This level would be roughly inline with the general trading strategy and comparison to Gold outlined in this post. Tom Lee maintains a ~15000 prediction by 2018 year's end, which seems very unlikely at this point bar some extremely strong fundamental development. There are many talented traders and investors in this space, so these handful of names are merely a sampling of some of the more widely publicized personalities to give some context to the price levels mentioned here. It's become apparent that even the best of them are subject to their emotional swings endemic to trading and investing alike. The best path forward is appreciating the whole of the market from bear to bull and defining a sound strategy that is yours alone. General Outlook and Risk Aversion Overall, if the comparison holds, expect to see near-term buying opportunities relative to the levels discussed above, followed by strength and consolidation around the MA 50, for an unknown period of time, as the Gold comparison eventually ends. I would at this point consider ~4950 to be the local floor. In order to remain open to every future possibility, though, I would be position sized/have stop losses to allow for a possible ~3000 test and less likely ~1000 test. If I was pressed to put arbitrary probabilities on these floor levels being hit before a resumption of trading in step with the Gold comparison, I would say it's 80%, 19%, and 1% for each of the three levels ~4950, ~3000, and ~1000, respectively. Why? Again, the reference point here is principally the comparison of the Bitcoin weekly chart with the Gold monthly chart. Finally, "risk aversion"... consider a future in which Bitcoin goes to 0. Hold your pitchforks and don't light the pyres yet... it is indeed one potential future among infinite others. But when it comes to your financial stability, cannot be made a 0% probability. Perhaps a tail risk, perhaps an inevitability, depending on your personal disposition. Either way, it's important to consider that reality and why a 100% (or 0%) allocation to Bitcoin is foolhardy. This articles is not financial advice for you to directly act on but merely one trader's thoughts and context for a developing market. One potential future. Only you can know your personal financial status and must plan responsibly if you wish to have any net positive return.
BNC:BLXLong
by JustChartThings
Short Sell Ibex 35 (Spanish Index) Many of the European Indices are entering a bear market (50sma<200sma). Shorting is difficult this early in a trend because counter-trend rallies can be explosive and rip through your stops. The TI indicator that Tone Vays uses is brilliant for finding these inflection points when these counter-trend rallies run out of steam. The Ibex hit a 9 candle inflection and the next candle closed lower. Potentially we'll go sideways early in the week (I don't like shorting on Mondays/Tuesdays) and after the 4 candle correction we head lower. A sell order in this vicinity with a stop above the 9, and above the previous TDST line (orange line) as well as the 50 day moving average (how far above depends on your own risk tolerance) presents a good risk to reward ratio if you're targeting the next lows around 8,650.
TVC:IBEX35Short
by CoinCompass
1
Officially out of the descending triangle / YS up 220%Hello all, The descending triangle is a bearish continuation pattern, so that is why I was leaning towards a fall to 5k for a while now. But I will admit, I definitely was not certain this would happen. Some were, congrats to them. Shout out to Tone Vays for that. Seen a ton of traders here that were bullish - am skeptical when that happens. They are usually wrong. We fell to about $5,500 before having a small bounce to $5750, but I am not expecting that to hold. $5k should be happening now. I would not be short from here, would just be waiting to long. I do want to say this though: I am currently up over 200% on my BCH trade over at BitMEX because I believe Craig is going to kill the ABC version and so far my bet is proving me correct. We will know by tomorrow when the hard fork occurs, so you can only place your bets for a limited period. The contract has fallen about 35% and so there is 50% upside if you are bullish and 100% upside if you are bearish and think Craig will win like I do. Since we have made new lows, I believe that indicates that the potential smooth bottom is invalid. Therefore, if we do not bounce hard from 5k and make a bottom, I am expecting $3,000 and maybe even $1,000. Do not be delusional. Bitcoin CAN fall to these levels. Be smart. Follow me for wisdom and 200% trades :) Make sure you follow me everywhere that you can because I don't always post here first. I made the BCH post late last night on Twitter and, well, if you followed you woulda woke up to a massive gain. -YoungShkreli For fun, I'll link the first trade I ever made here where I said this would happen. Was far more sure it would happen then than I have been lately, maybe I should trust myself more :)
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by CantorTechnologies
2
Is bitcoin headed to $5,000 still?What's up guys, I got stopped out of my last trade at $7130 for a profit of $100/btc long. Which is the same profit I made on the short trade before that. I've been bullish lately, and this dip doesn't really prove me wrong, but my strategy insists I go against what I am feeling anyways (or at least it will if we close the candle red). I want to share with you guys the most profitable trade I made all year. This trade single-handedly doubled my bitcoin stack and the trade right before it was a close second, but I wasn't on TV then. Anyways, I'd recommend reading about it here: In that trade, I was short from $8200 and the price fell to $6000. I am a leveraged trader, so that is how I doubled the account on a 25% move. I should go into detail about how I successfully trade with leverage, but that will be an educational post for another day. I mention this article, because people are going to see my last posts and be like, "YoungShkreli WAS BULLISH AT THE TOP." First off, I am ALWAYS bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom - I only switch my view NEAR the extremes. Catching the extremes is almost impossible and I don't have a strategy to do that that isn't based off of scaling your bets ie dollar-cost averaging (which doesn't count because your average won't be the top or bottom). If I did, I would be a trillionaire. I would be so good in the markets that people would leave. Fortunately (for everyone else) that is not the case. I simply go with what I see. So, here is what I see now... If we can close today's candle red, then I will short bitcoin at a small scale (I always scale my bets aka dollar-cost average). I am not necessarily as certain that we will hit 5k as I was last month or maybe two months ago, but I will bet that way because I don't trade based off of what I think or my emotions. I base trades off of a strategy that is based off of minimizing risk and having more upside than downside. If we go to 5k next, then I will get an almost perfect entry even if I don't see it coming. That's THE WHOLE IDEA people: I don't have to be right to make money, I can be wrong A MAJORITY of the time and still make money. This is because my downside is always very small and my upside is very large. Every time I make a trade, my expected value (go look up this stats term) is extremely positive. That's why I make money. I play a game with a high expected value over and over and over again. So, all in all, this drop isn't that bearish to me absolutely, I wish we fell more because that would make things easier, but oh well. I would not be surprised at all if we got back to $7,500 and I would not be surprised if we go to $0. I can't be surprised. That is what makes me a good trader. I am always prepared for ANYTHING. Even in the event of a flash crash, I am prepared, how? Because Bitmex offers cross margin. I trade on many exchanges, and Bitmex is one of them. I can use equity from hedged positions to prevent liquidation from other positions. I don't get screwed ever. Ever! Because I am ALWAYS prepared. There is not a single possible circumstance that I am not prepared for (in terms of price). The one event I am not prepared for is a theft or seizure of my funds, but once I decide how I am going to secure all of my gains, then I will be prepared for that too. Basically, I am planning to gradually take all of my profits off the table (ton of profit tbh) and trade solely with a static account where I take the profits off of every trade and take it offline. This is what the absolute finest traders do, and I will be following their lead on this (look up Ugly Old Goat - he will tell you this is what he does). I hope you all learned something, maybe this should be an educational post, but I do talk about the current market conditions so I guess it is an analysis. If I have been helpful, please like my work and follow me, it helps us both. -YoungShkreli PS There is so much that I haven't shared with you about how I trade. I haven't even mentioned options for bitcoin ever. Literally ever, and I've been trading options on deribit for quite some time. Most people don't understand options and so there is no real reason for me to talk about it, but I'm just telling you so that you understand that even though I have shared a lot of knowledge, it is practically nothing. I haven't covered how to scale trades, place stops, use leverage, use different options strategies, hedging strategies, create synthetic calls/puts, choose timeframes, backtesting etc. That is why I can offer what I have for free and not feel like a chump :) I also enjoy helping people, so there's that. PSS I am not the only good trader in crypto. I believe I might be the best trader on TV, but I am not sure. That said, there are many better traders on other platforms. Go search for them. They have taught me almost all that I know. Ugly Old Goat writes INCREDIBLE posts on medium and makes great tweets. I follow Tone Vays and he's okay as well. There are tons of different traders I am always following to see if I can learn from them. The top traders of bitmex (top 25 notional traders) are some of the smartest people in the entire world. Seek them and ye shall find them. You WILL become rich if you learn their ways because they play a game that has a positive expected value - as long as you keep playing, your net worth will keep trending higher.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by CantorTechnologies
5
More proof Bulls are in control for at least $8,500 retest!So I have always followed shorts and longs by the numbers in order to try and figure out where the market sentiment is heading since tracking longs and shorts were available. This chart I am posting is the longs dived by shorts ratio which equals the blue line. Shout out to Tone Vays for sharing this tool. Now we have a clear ratio to look at and you can see we are quite bullish under 1.0 and quite bearish above 1.75 and 2.0. We are barely at 1.06 which is quite low and gives more validity of a $8,500 retest on top of the wyckoff accumulations. Thought this was cool and wanted to share. This is not financial advice just educational. Cheers good luck.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGSLong
by ziler
4
Bitcoin weekly VAR update 1Hello ladies and gents, Before someone gets on my case for thinking I mean this has anything to do with a weekly chart, you are mistaken. Anyways, I have have been bullish since my last post, and I remain bullish. I will let you guys know when that changes. One of the most respected technical analysts in the space, Tone Vays, was calling for a price of $5,000 a while back. I don't remember what price it was at, but I ran the statistics then and saw that there was less than a 1% chance of being right within his timeframe. No matter who you are, if you are not using more than TA, your knowledge is limited. Don't get me wrong, you can make a lot of money with TA, but you should aspire to learn more. Guys, technical analysis is not everything. Expand your knowledge as far as you can to see the clearest picture - it will get closer to reality this way. We can only hope to perceive the truth - it is absurdly elusive. It has taken civilization tens of thousands of years to learn most basic truths that we take for granted today. In most cases, only one person discovered the various truths. Aspire to be one of the very few who does see reality in one aspect (near impossible to see the truth in more). To get to the point of this post, I will be showing you guys the lowest and highest probable price for the week (with 99% confidence). Without further adieu, let's get into the calculations: 7-day VAR: 2.33*.05*position*sqrt(7) = 30.82% (you will get a number running this calculation, but that number is arbitrary based on position - I have gone the next step and made it a percent) Read this as: "I am 99% certain the most you will lose holding bitcoin in 30.82% in the next 7 days" We can take this a step further with two calculations: 1) (position-VaR)/position)*market_price = $ 4,652.24 2) (position+VaR)/position)*market_price = $ 8,798.02 Thus, I am 99% certain the bitcoin will trade within the range of $4,652.24 and $8,798.02 this week. So, if you hear something else from someone else, they are probably wrong :) -YoungShkreli P.S. I just want to tell you guys that even though I am the only (I've not seen another - I could be wrong) person on TV who has written code for doing all this stuff and the only one who even talks about statistics used in finance, I am not, by any means, brilliant. I'm sure there will be people who think I am some really old guy who spent a life learning all of this stuff, but I did not. I am a very young person. I am not even a good programmer nor am I a good mathematician/statistician. Anyone of you could do what I have done simply by learning to program for a month and by reading the book: Options, Futures, and other Derivatives. I use Python for all code I write, I would recommend the book: Python Crash Course by Matthes.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by CantorTechnologies
3
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 170)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! 1 day: Break down $6,000 support | 1 week: breakdown $5,750 support | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Have been waiting for retest of 12 EMA before thinking we would be in a position to breakdown the major support that has held us up for 2018. Happened yesterday and we wicked off of it hard - this is another reason why I am viewing yesterday’s candle as a shooting star (bearish) instead of an inverted hammer (bullish)/ Short ADA:BTC | BCH:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,650 | S: $6,200 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back off yesterday’s shooting star candle. What if it turns 30,000 into support on pullback? If not it will probably pull back to 18,000 Funding Rates: shorts pay longs 0.0397% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -1.14% | 26 = -5.38% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.77% (just angled up slightly) | 128 = -14.32% Volume: Large buying volume from yesterday was unable to push price past $6,600 resistance. Small volume as price re explores yesterdays wick. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,554 | 0.382 = $5,316 Candlestick analysis: Re exploring wick of shooting star/inverted hammer - I am viewing it as the former because we bounced from $6,000 / broke the downtrend and this feels like the end of that move. Ichimoku Cloud: Daily cloud should be strong resistance TD’ Sequential: G9 on 1h. G3 < G2 on daily. Visible Range: $6,526 is top of high volume node for 1 month lookback. Breaking through it and quickly pulling back under is very back sign for bulls. POC = $6,359 & and that breaking down would be next step. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.96% | 24h = +1.57% | 1w = -1.00% | 2w = -0.9% | 1m = 1.89% Bollinger Bands: Approaching top of 4h band. Do not think it can surpass daily MA at $6,978 Trendline: Daily Trend: Next one would be a retest of the top of the triangle Fractals: Down = $6,000 | Up = $8,316 | Could someone tell me why up fractal did not print on top of 8/13? On Balance Volume: Testing resistance / no div’ ADX: +DI just started to angle downward again and ADX is starting to move. Chaikin Money Flow: Looks like it created a lower high RSI (30 setting): Looks like it wants to re test 50. Stoch: %K broke through 20, will %D follow? Summary: I have often gotten my best entries when the current candle re explores a bearish wick from the day before. That is exactly what we are seeing now. Generally I will set my stop slightly above the top of yesterday’s wick. In this case I would set it above $6,850 resistance. Expected next move to come hard/fast and when you least expect it. I am getting in the car to go to Tone Vays’ seminar in Las Vegas and that is when I least expect/want the move to happen. Bags are packed and stop losses are set!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
6
Bitcoin! The bulls have won the battle - but who wins the war!?Hey guys! I'm definitely feeling a bit bullish on bitcoin today. Technicals are great, but I feel that too often TA on TradingView neglects the emotion of the market as an indicator. Lately, we've been hearing much about $5k, even from Tone Vays - who I respect. But, even the best of technical analysts, or the smartest of us, can fall prey to emotion - we're Human! That's what makes us great. Are these bears falling victim to this scenario? Of that, I'm not sure. I do know, that when I got into crypto last november, all I could hear about was $30k Bitcoin , $50k Bitcoin, etc! Is the inverse of that scenario happening now? Well, I think just maybe that COULD be the case. I am not a professional, but that thought has been floating in my head ever since we bounced off 5750. Here's my bullish scenario (as a bear) and my trade conditions. Good luck everyone!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by vox-populi
BTC/USD inverted H&S or more bear trend?For 4h time frame I expect 2 possible scenarios. Since in 1h chart the inverted H&S is triggered, the 200 and 128 MA golden cross is happening at right shoulder and also with the bullish news coming out recently specially the ETF news I think the most expected scenario is inverted H&S . However there is another possibility which is forming a triangle pattern that is a continuation pattern to downside and further drop in BTC price. I considered the second scenario because when the majority ( almost 91% of traders who are losers in the market ) expect some trend and pattern ( the bullish inverted H&S here ) to happen the exact opposite happens and only the minority of traders with big money ( the 9% winners ) gain in such situations. So I will be cautious about this situation. Also I suggest you to check the weekly chart with two MA of 30 and 50 period which is approaching to a death cross. However, since the price is far from the MA some rises in price ( probably with this inverted H&S pattern that is forming ) is expected to bring the price closer to MA and the death cross area which is going to happen within almost three weeks ( check Tone Vays recent TAs ).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn1639405
Long Term BTC AnalysisHere we see BTC bounce with conviction off bottom support and is pushing on daily to reach top of wedge. Tone Vays called the 3k bottom long ago based on clear support levels and I see us reaching it around the end of August. Target being top of wedge at around $7600 and then a fall to hopefully what will be the bottom at $3000- It certainly could go lower than that or even find support above it at 4900 range. Ideally these would be your swing trade entry and exit points. Look for reversal candles on higher time frames to spot when this top could form. Ideally we will see another few weeks of bull before possibly the last leg down. Don't get too greedy during this run as I do believe another large leg down is imminent. Short term- bull medium term- BEAR always a long term Bull on Bitcoin Trade Safe! Steven Glandsberg eats dessert alone. Don't let people eat their dessert alone.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptoglandsberg
This is it: Descending Triangle building up for Bitcoin (BTC)This is it: Descending Triangle building up for Bitcoin (BTC) Hey guys, my last scenario is still playing out but it is critical that we hold this 7800-7700 level. Otherwise the odds will highly shift in favor of the bulls in a perfect descending triangle pattern that has been building up for the past 2 to 3 months. This also reflects to be a mirror image of Bitcoin from December 2013 to May 2014. This pattern makes sense, if you think about it. A lot of people are talking about locking in profits now where last year it was all about 'hodling.' What that psychology is doing to the market is getting bounces of known levels and then selling faster and faster every time. The ONLY way we can break this psychology is by crashing through 9k and all those people locking in profits will get left behind. When this keeps happening again and again, the buy and hold culture will come back thus taking us on a third wave to 11.8k. There is NO WAY to ignore this descending triangle pattern. I hate to admit it, I've been looking for other patterns but that is me trying to not be objective. Thus, I'm giving this chance a lot more probability at this point. This will also prove Tone Vays right about going down to 5k (or below). HOWEVER, I am still bullish in that we will recover from this quickly. Like McAfee said on an interview: 'It doesn't matter how low Bitcoin gets, it will come back with a viciousness you've never seen before EVERY TIME' And I believe that as well :) That is because I think people FEAR most missing out than loosing profits. What are your thoughts? What day or year/month are you reading this now? Comment below...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by dreamsound
Bitcoin 2018 Bull Trend - $34,000 price target?!?!My favorite chart pattern to trade are trend lines and/or pitchforks. I am always on the lookout for the next trend. Once one is established I use it as the primary indicator of overbought and oversold conditions. Knife catching the bottom of a trend provides the best risk:reward entries that I know how to find. Furthermore, I can confidently profit take once the price approaches the top end. Unfortunately there has not been a discernible long term trend since 4/12 when we broke out of the bear market. Today I charted a trend that I expect to hold up over the next 3+ months. Furthermore I have used fractals to project the price action and have provided two options for what August could look like. We are currently looking at a bear flag, which I expect to be rejected by support at either $8,500 or $7,800. That would confirm the $10,500 retest before the end of May. That is when everyone will be calling for the moon and it will be time to sell. If we pull back down to $8,300 from there then it could cause some panic to set back in for the skittish bulls. Tone Vays will be calling for $1,000 and the uncertainty will be abundant. That is when I will be putting on my working gloves and looking for a knife to catch. We would have a cluster of support (trend/horizontal) and it would provide the best risk:reward ratio that I have seen in months. From there I expect a strong rally to take us back up to the top of the trend by the end of July. That is when it would be time to take profit and watch from the sidelines. Obviously I am going to be rooting for the green line and would love to reenter on the breakout. That would have us retesting $20,000 by August 1st and would likely form a very nice cup & handle with a target of $34,000! The other option has us retesting $9,000 during the first week of August and that wouldn’t be nearly as much fun. Nevertheless, I will be prepared for both options and hopefully this will help you to be as well! Comment if you have something to say, smash the like if you found this helpful and definitely finger that follow!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
Understanding Bitcoin Daily Cycles and Using Cycles for TradingAlmost every trader focuses on price analysis. That makes sense, because price is obviously important. However, a majority of traders do not incorporate time as part of their analysis. Bitcoin trader Tone Vays is famous for using Tom Demark indicators (I also use and recommend following him). It's one way of measuring time and can help you time your trades much better. Another easy way to add time analysis is through daily cycle theory. Daily Cycle Theory Markets are a measure of human emotions. And emotions move in waves. This causes assets to run in cycles where lows or tops ten to occur in specific time ranges. This occurs in all markets though some markets tend to follow the pattern more consistently then others. Bitcoin happens to be very consistent. By counting the number of days in each cycle you can get a better idea of when a market is ready to pivot. How do Cycles Work? Waves are all around is. It's just part of nature. Sound, radio waves, light, earthquakes. Everywhere. And waves in a chart simply measure human sentiment. Just 30 days ago, all I heard was talk of bitcoin being done for good. That we would see $4000 soon. Sentiment was maximized bearish. That resulted in way too many shorts who got squeezed all the way up to $10k. Now we are starting to see another extreme. Everyone is bullish. The new bull market is "confirmed." The downtrend line is broke. They say this will be the last time we see $10k. This is a perfect example of how sentiment can move in waves from bearish to bullish, from fear to greed. This change is reflected in price on the chart. Cycles are also impacted by traders taking profits and markets running out of buyers or sellers. At some point a market goes high enough that people just can't help but to take profit. They get nervous and don't want to lose the profit they've made. So if the market starts to exhaust, traders start to sell, then as price goes down, more traders sell as they are concerned about locking in gains. Stops get run and we have a correction. And inevitably the more expensive price gets, the less buyers you have. There might be some people thinking hard about buying bitcoin today, but put their orders in at $7000, $8000 or some number much lower. Bitcoin's Daily Cycle Every asset seems to have its own wave pattern where the market will move in one direction for a period of time before making a correction. I traded oil in the mid 2000's and its daily cycle ran closer to a 60 day cycle. I traded gold from 2007 to 2012 and gold's cycle was closer to 25 days. Bitcoin has a 30 day cycle. But you must realize cycle are never exact. They will fall in a range. So a 30 day cycle is 25-35 day range. There are sometimes short cycles or long cycles, but will be about 1 in every 10 cycles. Like any analysis it is NEVER 100% right. This chart shows bitcoin's cycles. There are 15 of them in this chart. All of them in the range of 27 to 33 days. That's incredibly consistent and useful. The red numbers are cycle lows. The green numbers are cycle inversions. If you get past day 22-24 without the market rolling over, then there is a good chance its going towards 30 and will top out as an inversion rather than making a cycle low. Inversions tend to be much more common in a bear market as price action is just generally more volatile in a bear market. How do you use Daily Cycle Theory in Trading? You can't just buy or sell based on cycles. Cycles are like an alarm or warning. They let you know that its a good time to take profit or start looking for a reversal at a top or look for a dip to buy. Use cycles in combinations with other technical analysis. Start looking for pivosts or reversal candles when you are in that daily cycle range. All I can say is that I added cycles to my trading toolset 15 years ago and its helped me take in more profit from trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by rzmb44
11
BTC Prices of 2014 vs 2018 (Part 2018)I am new to technical analysis however have been learning for the past couple months from some people like The Chart Guys, Tone Vays, and Carter Thomas ~ Thanks guys, you've been a huge help! Make sure to check them out, as they all provide a different perspective on the market and crypto. Anyways, I took a look at the differences between the 2014 cycle and the one we are in today here 2018. This is the 2018 version that has the relative numbers associated with the 2014. (I will post this immediately after) I hope you find this informational, I feel as if this is self explaining however please ask questions, point things out that you think I am doing wrong, call me bad names because I'm calling for a lower price... No matter what, I will use all information in order to better my trades and understand this market more. I hope you are making the best out of your night Best, Brendan
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Coin_Savvvy
BTC Prices of 2014 vs 2018 (Part 2014)I am new to technical analysis however have been learning for the past couple months from some people like The Chart Guys, Tone Vays, and Carter Thomas ~ Thanks guys, you've been a huge help! Make sure to check them out, as they all provide a different perspective on the market and crypto. Anyways, I took a look at the differences between the 2014 cycle and the one we are in today here 2018. This is the 2014 version that has the relative numbers associated with the 2018. (I will post this immediately after) I hope you find this informational, I feel as if this is self explaining however please ask questions, point things out that you think I am doing wrong, call me bad names because I'm calling for a lower price... No matter what, I will use all information in order to better my trades and understand this market more. I hope you are making the best out of your night Best, Brendan
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Coin_Savvvy
3