rzmb44

Its the question everyone should ask and coming weeks will help us answer. This is my current cycle count in a 55 day cycle average, but since this has been so vertical, I'm still a bit uncertain if its accurate. This correction will help us get more clarity. We have a parabolic move, a big drop, a recovery to the 79% OTE, then lose all those gains in a few...

Originally I thought this was a little too fast but felt it was a short squeeze and we'd top in the $8-$10k range then have a nice correction. Unfortunately things go out of hand. Parabolas happen all the time, in many different price /time ranges and many different assets. I've studied them for years and I got shit when I said the $20k parabola was a bad...

In 2017, I mentioned that bitcoin's chart looked a lot like Silver's parabola. In early 2018, I discussed how we were would likely move into a low to find a bottom and start to form a cup. I expected bout 9 months so I was close to 3 months too soon somewhere around $4000. I got the shape and price very close just a bit short on time. ...

So if you followed me, you know I've been shorting cycles and certainly attempted to short this last cycle. In doing that, I missed the big move. That's fairly common with my trading style. Even Though I was long at $3400, I did not hold into these prices (I do have long term bitcoin I purchased at $3500, just not a swing trade). And I believe we are due for...

I really held onto this last long position for a long time thinking we were in a good position to move up and have our first cycle high. But this move since the big drop on February 24th just looks like a choppy range. And despite a big drop and impressive recovery on March 4th-5th, we now have gone 5 days sideways, losing the power of that initial momentum. And...

This is good risk reward trade up here to short. That doesn't mean its a guarantee, but you win this trade 15% of the time, you will be profitable. Here is what I like: 1. I like that this has potential to form a typical head and shoulders if it fails to go much higher 2. Notice the volume spikes on the initial move up were much more aggressive. So far the...

With recent bullish price action, I thought it might be a good idea to show you have I evaluate an asset in terms of "turning" from bearish to bullish long term. I use several steps. Each has meaning and if we complete them, I would have a high degree of confidence we are moving bullish. That doesn't mean 100% as I've seen swings fail, but I'd say 80-90%...

Ethereum is on fire. And its really dangerous to short something that is this strong. However, if you have the balls to do it AND you manage risk. This is where you take a shot. A lot of assets will move up to their 79% area and make for a good reversal. ICT Trader is famous for this level and calls it Optimal Trade Entry (OTE). I took it but I'll have...

I covered my last short yesterday and I'm now focusing on finding a long position. Cycles helping me with the timing. Bitcoin trades on a 55 day cycle. This doesn't mean it makes an exact low on day 55. It means that every 45-60 days we need to be on alert to make a low. That yellow box is what I call a "timing band." It mainly helps us know that we are in a...

This last little push up that failed is no good for Ethereum. The previous diagonal support has been tested multiple times and continues to fail. That green line demand has been support but it has been tapped multiple times and I doubt there are buyers left. If that breaks, I think there is a good chance we go to major support that is quite a big lower. ETHBTC...

Yesterday I closed longs from my last swing trade (a little too early). We had a big 15 minute candle but no follow through. Went lower and retesting the overnight consolidation. So I'll short this area. The basic situation is that we are in a bear market until we aren't. We had a rally then 2 weeks of chop and a rally that couldn't start a trend. We are in...

I believe that the cycle low is in. Its a bit short at 45 days but since the move down was so aggressive, its not uncommon to have a short cycle. I've been taking some small trades the past few days and I had sold a long at $3700 but I thought there was a good chance we would make another move lower yesterday. Since the rally held up and we've closed an hourly...

Bitcoin has had a sideways cycle which makes it difficult to get a sense of timing. At the same time, we are the timing bad for a daily cycle low. Normally I wouldn't short near a daily cycle low but this is the rare circumstance where I will do it for a short term trade because the risk reward is good enough and if we fall through like i expect, then we could...

I needed to make a new post. I really haven't been in much of a trade other than I took a quick ETHBTC long. I've scalped a few other trades, but I'm looking to re-establish my short position. I'm still looking for bearish results, but certainly open to bullish movement. Right now we have a good risk reward to take a short position with a close area to put a...

The sentiment on ethereum is really low. Vitalik made some comments that spooked people and everyone has come up with a story that all alts are doomed and that ICO's have to sell to raise cash. To some degree that is true, but I think its being overblown. I can tell you that professional traders love to stick it to retail using stories like this. In the next 12...

I believe we are approaching a major move in Bitcoin. Either a burst higher or the next leg lower. I might get flamed for saying this, but I think there is a very good chance this move starts in the next 12 hours and we head lower. I realize we are consolidating. I realize bitcoin is low. I realize shorts at near all time highs. However, I see some things I...

One thing we learn is that bitcoin doesn’t give you a second chance. This has been difficult to trade the last 2 months because it hasn’t retracted once it makes its move so you either have to time it perfectly or buy breakdowns. I didn’t see characteristics of a bottom when we turned and didn't fit into my cycle count. I also never saw confirmation to go...

I believe we are at an incredibly important spot for bitcoin. My long term view was that we’d get an important low in the summer of 2018. I was leaning for late July to September. The low in June is perfectly acceptable for my timing studies, so at this point, the probability of that $5700 is the low is now higher than the bear case, but its far from a...