rzmb44

rzmb44

I have a long position in bitcoin and will continue holding it for now. We are building a consolidation range above $22k and I favor trend continuation. However, its important to understand where things can go wrong. And after explaining its OK to buy at high prices, I also need to explain how to manage risk. At this point, I really do not want to see us...

rzmb44

Almost every trader will tell you not to buy the top or chase a rally. There is a lot of truth to that. But make no mistake. There is nothing wrong with buying a breakout to new all time highs. The asset goes into price discovery and this is the time when you want to ride the bull market. There are likely funds that are cautious and just now starting to...

rzmb44

Its been awhile. I haven't traded due to personal reasons but had a comment to make since I noticed people calling for a deep pullback. Usually after a huge move like this, people think bitcoin retraces and think about shorting it because support is so much lower so they naturally try to short or look for deep pullbacks. Bitcoin doesn't normally give you...

rzmb44

This is a catalyst. A black swan. A rare event. While I'm generally someone that is a high risk trader, these are events that cause panic. Logic, reason and technical analysis won't help. We have no idea what happens, but the fear is now real with travel bans and sporting events suspended. This will cause people to raise cash, stop spending and completely halt...

05:43

rzmb44

Due to the recent panic from the corona virus scare, the oil war and the circuit breaker trigger on markets, I will not be taking swing trades. In cases like this we get emotion and panic so it can render technical analysis unreliable. I expect things to be volatile and risky moving forward, so I prefer to sit on the sidelines until markets settle down. If the...

11:03

rzmb44

I believe we now have a cycle low. I'm long and accumulating with stop at the recent low. If that fails I will look for the 200 MA area and add on the daily reversal candle. At this point, we have a right translated cycle and recovered the major MA's. So I plan to continue to build on cycle low dips and will generally look for a right translated yearly cycle...

10:19

rzmb44

We shifted into a bearish bias with the failure of the 200 EMA's. They are starting to curl down. In the last video, I explained that I expected us to test the $8k area near the 200 EMA and thats where we stand. I took a long at the last cycle but I took profit over the holidays due to stagnant nature on unpredictability of low volume trading. We are right near...

08:28

rzmb44

I think bitcoin may be making a cycle low soon so I will attempt to long a countertrade. Looking for a trade near a double bottom under $6650 and then potentially lower, so I will likely take multiple trades but will need to see a start of a bear market rally and I'll be quick to take profit and move my stops. I forgot to mention today is a TD 9 so it would be a...

15:04

rzmb44

Traders need to adapt to trading conditions. With bitcoin I've shifted from bullish trend trading to bearish/range trading. I explain why I made the shift and how I trade ranges.

09:21

rzmb44

We have a confirmed cycle failure, severe left translated cycle and strong bearish momentum. I'm completely out and don't plan to trade BTC. Right now I'm just watching but in this video I explain my position and how I will trade the next 30 days.

14:07

rzmb44

I'm still long at $7800 and took some profit so I could lower stop, but the bearish movement is now about 4 weeks old and we are well below the 200 SMA and closing dailies below the 200 EMA, so BTC will have a lot of work to do the remaining 30 days of this cycle to prove its ready to trend bullish. If we end up with a left translated cycle or a failed cycle...

09:29

rzmb44

This is a bearish chart, but let me clarify that I"m still bullish, still long at $7800 and still looking for bull market to re-ignite. But is important as a trader to understand what can go wrong and adapt. What if this rally and cycle fails, what happens if mid December is the yearly cycle low? The simple answer is that we would have some very bearish...

09:46

rzmb44

Bitcoin has made a strong move up, consolidated and now breaking down. Nothing is broken, but until we make a higher high and right translated cycle, we do not have a bullish trend. Long from $7800, stop at break even.

10:35

rzmb44

If you followed my last 2 videos, I mentioned that that green zone under $7400 would be a good long, that most people were too bearish and putting too much emphasis on being below the 200 DSMA. Also, explained why time/cycle analysis showed this to be a good time to buy. Also, when bitcoin turns, it becomes a fast moving train that has a tendency to leave...

07:37

rzmb44

As I've said before, the low $7ks are a good area to clear stops. Don't think this will be easy to buy and we could get some momentum from the break down, but timing is right to find a low here this week and start a new daily cycle. We are on day 55 so right in the timing band for a 55-60 day cycle. That means I'm looking for 2 possibilities. 1. Find a low and...

08:06

rzmb44

I'm bullish on bitcoin and looking to buy a swing trade long. I've already added to a long position, but I think we could potentially see another move lower that could be a good buying opportunity.

rzmb44

Bitcoin is a monthly and weekly bull market and currently in a daily bear move which I would categorize as a consolidation. In my early posts I was concerned that we could have topped and opened up a parabolic crash. While that is still possible, I don't find it as likely since this move has taken so long. Had we broke down last month, I would be more...

14:50

rzmb44

I like to draw important price action levels on charts to look for reactions. These include: Yearly Open Monthly Open Weekly Open Weekly High Low Confluence Major Fibonacci Retracements BTC CME Gaps (use BTC1! daily chart) Support Resistance zones Keep in mind that I'm more concerned with the area than the specific price. I tend to wait to see a reaction...