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US2y to stay below 1.500The chart patterns indicated that the US2Y yield is going to break and stay below 1.500. The implications are that the spread (or difference) between US10Y minus US2Y is getting smaller. This, in turn, is suggesting reversion or a correction in US Indices towards the mean You can see the initial chart pattern A, which led to the corresponding drop to point 1, and chart pattern B, which led to drop point 2 I think the US2Y will hold at 1.418 and then fall to 1.365 as the maximum potential drop
TVC:US02YShort
by supratimbarman
1
US2Y Treasury Yield vs Gold The correlation between the 2Y & gold indicates that when the US2Y peaks, there is a US recession & gold rallies to new highs subsequently after. ** 1 = Peak in US2Y ( 1989 ) did not see a rally in gold because gold was depegged from the USD in the mid 1970's. 2 = Peak in US2Y ( 2000 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. 3 = Peak in US2Y ( 2007 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. 4 = Peak in US2Y ( 2020 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the incoming recession. Speculation 5? = Do we see a continuation of the opposite correlation between the US2Y & Gold when the US2Y peaks? I believe so. However, I see two scenarios for gold if & when the US2Y peaks. Scenario #1: Gold rallies to new highs after the peak in yields Scenario #2 ( Base Case ): After peak in US2Y, Gold rallies to tests previous high & fails to make new highs.
TVC:US10YLong
by brandonmattis
Tut Tut - US10Y-US2Y rises to highest in 3 yearsCurve Steepening is alive and well as the basis point difference between the US 10-year bonds and the US 2-year bonds reaches its highest level since 2017. This largely due to the Fed purchasing of shorter term bonds every month as part of its QE program to support the economy. Expect this trend to continue as the Fed maintains its support and refrains from purchasing longer dated bonds. However, should the Fed announce they are now going to purchase longer dated bonds, then a quick reversal is on the cards.
TVC:US10Y
by majicktrader
PRE-NY CONDITIONS — 17 November 2025New York inherits a defensive London session: steady Dollar, firm short-end yields, weaker equities, and rising volatility. 1. Market Environment (London → NY Transition) Dollar: DXY holds mid-range near 99.40. No shift in macro tone during London. Yields: US10Y near 4.15%, US2Y near 3.60%. Both stayed contained inside narrow ranges — policy tone unchanged. Risk Tone: ES weakened through London. Volatility elevated. Global tone remains cautious. Liquidity: Thinner into NY as VIX climbs and equities soften. Quick Insight: Stable 2Y = stable policy tone. Rising VIX = cautious liquidity. 2. Six-Chart Snapshot (Operator View) DXY: Mid-range (98.991–99.981), inside-bar structure. No bias until a break. US10Y: Range-bound. Today’s move sits inside a 1.03% range. US2Y: Up 0.64% on low volume — quiet policy tone, data-waiting behavior. ES: Bearish through London with clear rotation lower into NY. Gold: Lower inside daily imbalance. Down 1.46% — weak safety demand. VIX: Up 7.47% — rising volatility regime. 3. Cross-Asset Signals Yields: Stable long-end + firm short-end → Dollar supported. Equities: ES weakness maintains defensive tone. Gold: Lower → no significant safety bid. Volatility: Higher VIX → cautious liquidity and reactive flows. Global Risk: Neutral-to-defensive. 4. Core Drivers for NY • Dollar reaction inside the inside-bar range • Short-end yield firmness (2Y) • ES tone post-NY open • VIX regime (expanding vs contained) • Yield alignment (10Y + 2Y) 5. Execution Notes — CORE5 PEM Follow higher-timeframe direction Ignore noise from earlier sessions Wait for structure + flow alignment Act only on confirmation One-Line Summary NY opens into a defensive setup: steady Dollar, firm yields, weak equities, and rising volatility. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
TVC:US02Y
by DanelFadejev
1
Alarm bells ringing on the 2's 5's curve...Recession is callingThis chart comes after a conversation with Citi... only 4 times in the past 30 years has the US 2's vs 5's curve inverted whilst being in an upward moving yield environment, via Fed QT. We know from history a few lessons; (1) Every other time this happened it ended badly for the global economy. (2) A Fed that lags will only add fuel to the flames .. "it's different this time"... (3) The longer the delayed reaction from Fed, the worst the blow in Equity markets. Assuming Fed moves in July (even with a more aggressive cutting profile e.g 50bps) it is still the 3rd longest delay over this time period. A 25bps is a 'done-deal' so should the Fed buckle and not move (very unlikely) it will mean that markets look at September which would then make this monetary policy 'delay' just marginally quicker than 2000/2001. Best of luck those tracking for the end of the cycle... this chart will be one for the history books.
TVC:US05YLong
by ridethepig
4
PRE-NY CONDITIONS Dollar is pressing into a major cross-asset high, recognized across FX, yields, and risk assets. London kept DXY inside a tight structure with no clean breakout, which turns this level into stop-time: the point where liquidity pauses and the market decides whether the move extends or fades. Front-end yields remain firm, anchoring the Dollar’s support. The 10-year is indecisive, offering no confirmation and keeping the curve without a clear macro signal. ES holds its overnight gap on Nvidia strength, but volatility near 21 keeps risk fragile. Gold remains neutral, reflecting a balanced but uncertain safety tone into the U.S. session. DXY: Testing a major high; range-bound after London; structure stretched but supported by 2Y strength. US10Y: Indecisive daily structure; long end is not confirming Dollar strength; macro tone remains unclear. US2Y: Firm short-end repricing; maintains policy pressure and supports Dollar tone. ES: Holding gap; risk appetite supported but shallow; volatility still limiting follow-through. Gold: Neutral safety tone; neither attracting nor rejecting flows; reflects cross-asset indecision. VIX: Near 21; elevated volatility keeps conditions reactive and reduces trend reliability. Cross-asset alignment remains mixed. The Dollar is firm, but only the front end confirms it. Long-end yields hesitate. ES shows controlled appetite, but volatility denies conviction. Gold confirms the indecision. Liquidity conditions lean cautious, shaped more by bond market signals than by clean macro drivers. Pillar Focus: PEM — Confirmation Entries Today's environment aligns with PEM logic. A stretched Dollar at a major level, split yields, and elevated volatility mean operators should rely on confirmation-based triggers, shorter engagements, and strict timing. High-frequency windows (NY open → 10:00 → London fix) carry more clarity than directional assumptions. Follow higher-timeframe direction Ignore noise from earlier sessions Wait for structure + flow alignment Act only on confirmation Summary: NY opens into a cautious environment defined by a stretched Dollar, mixed yields, and elevated volatility — a clear PEM day. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
TVC:DXY
by DanelFadejev