For longer term context, please se my attached analysis.
Second and finalABC to the downside corrected into the previous wave 4 and a just a touch from 0.500 retracement, wave A being equal to C. The washout should be over, and we should be targeting ATH in February. Needless to say, we would need a strong close today, and a nice fat green candle.
Break of 16300...
There are clear five waves to the upside, the first wave being the extended one. On this timeframe, it is more evident that we have wave 1 completed, and that a correction is due. I doubt it will exceed 15600 which represents a 0.500 retracement, but who knows. Anything below 15450 should be considered as suspect.
It is possbile to count five waves up on lower time frames to today's high. The move looks impulsive enough, as it is really really hard to count it as an ABC. So we will label it as first wave up, and wait for a correction to enter again. It should not exceed 15600-500 level.
Price is stalling bellow 16000, and MACD looks ready to curve down. There cannot be any...
It is still unclear if C (circled) wave is over, one more dip to 15050 level is certainly possible. A five wave push off the low would be a first indication that probabilities are growing that a new run towards ATH has started, at the moment we have only three waves. Break of 15600 level would also be a good sign to say the least.
NDX has tested magenta SMA which has acted as solid support during this bull push, and it all happened very close to 0.382 correction of the relevant wave up. If my count is correct market should be turning higher very soon, if it did not do that already.
NDX is now tracing C wave of orange 4, it should end between 15000 and 14500, 0.382 and 0.50 retracement respectively. No overlap area should be respected and not breached, magenta SMA broken then regained as in previous corrections. Second half of January and February would see another, penultimate push to ATH, followed by March correction - the final one....
Price is right below the neckline, coiling. As many other curencies NZD is threatening a crucial breakout, sitting on magenta SMA, which should act as support. Of course, a breakout is needed for the H&S pattern to be completed.
The ratio made an impulsive thrust to the downside, as Silver rallied with a vengeance from COVID lows. The move has corrected in three waves and magenta SMA and 86.70 historical longterm resistance level should contain any advance.
High in the ratio, made during COVID crisis is of great significance, marked unprecedented overperformance of Gold, which shoul now...
No overlap area is the key for my NDX count, defining "3 of 3" or "reckognition point". The completion of the bull wave would require an up-down-up sequence into the spring, if seasonality is to be trusted, probably over by mid-May. Breath is already deteriorating rapidly, but a historical top needs time to develop.
An epic bear market will follow.
Pattern developed from Jan 17 to Dec 21 looks a lot like the reversal pattern from back in 00-02, but is a lot bigger. Both followed multiyear bear markets in EURUSD. Is eight year bear over? Break of 1.2350 to the upside would open the door for secular EUR bull.
After five waves up EURUSD corrected to the 0.618 level or just about. There is a five wave pattern on the hourly chat to the upside, which could signal that the correction on the weekly level might be over, which offers huge potential from the long side. Sentiment is deeply negative for the pair, RSI oversold.