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NQ Broadening TopThe NQ is making a broadening top pattern. This is not a bearish or bullish pattern, since it trends upward 49.6% of the time and downward 50.3% of time. It has a nice look, where price was trending upward 6 months leading into the pattern, with downward sloping volume. To pick a top in this market is dangerous, with the low volume grind. I am looking for clear resistance at the top TL, where the previous days low is violated on a strong daily close. However, I believe the markets could try to close towards highs leading into Trump´s inauguration, with price at highs or near them. After that it´s anyones guess. This is also the week before opex, so we could see a Thursday / Friday low? All bs at the moment. However, if next week is like all the other days in the election cycle for Trump, I would not be surprised if next week is an upside bias week. Notes on chart Go to bulkowski for good information on broadening tops at thepatternsite dot com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by elp
5
NQ - Daily Setup / D1 = 15708-14367 & D2 = 15399 - 14367Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will tell us everything we need to know. Price provided further Information the last few days. We have been patiently waiting for developments in the Market Structures to unfold . We anticipated a Countrend after hitting the WEEKLY LTL @ 14367 illustrated in a prior Chart Observation. Everything has traded out as we anticipated and indicated. SO far, SO good - this is always subject to change. We never tell Price what to do, but simply obey its increasingly Volatile gyrations. _____________________________________________________ Prior to the beginning - I would point out the NQ has given back 100+ Ticks in the Final hour in prior Sessions. Sellers remain on the Hourly Timeframe End of Day - Volumes Support the SELL as being more than a simple Profit-taking event, but a larger and continuing Distribution. As well, the ES gave up 50% from its highs yesterday, falling short of the Gap Fill. The YM fell back 200+ Ticks. Sellers remain as the Hourly is attempting to turn Up to imbue the Bulls that we are out of the Loggins Danger Zone. We are not quite yet for a number of reasons and conditions we will discuss this in detail. This will be NASDAQ-centric, as it has the most to gain and to lose. The YM / RTY are trading on their own, the ES is more closely aligned to the NQ and the VIX. These Price actions and divergences are important between Indexes as the rotation trades continue. Friday Macro Data: 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Sep) 08:30 USD Average Weekly Hours (Sep) 08:30 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep) 08:30 USD Government Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Manufacturing Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD Participation Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) 08:30 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Sep) 08:30 USD Unemployment Rate (Sep) 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) 10:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Aug) 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13:00 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 15:30 GBP CFTC GBP speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Aluminium speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Copper speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Corn speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Gold speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Natural Gas speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Silver speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Soybeans speculative net positions 15:30 USD CFTC Wheat speculative net positions _____________________________________________________ Technically, the attempt to Fill the Gap is underway. It failed yesterday, it is, however - Friday. Which suggests the potential for more extreme Price action is on deck. We have conflicting Information on varying Timeframes: The hourly as mentioned above is attempting to move Higher, the Daily/Weekly remain in a Net Negative Position. We see 3 Potential Outcomes, which require Patience... and suggest patience pays quite often here. Simply because it does protect Traders from Biases formed during large declines in Price for which the NQ saw 5%+ come off the Top of the Range while BTD Retailers were howling for 18,000. Gap and Don't Look Back Implication: The lows at 14367 were it, Price will now move higher back to all-time highs once again. It worked for 18 Months and it will continue. The correction was merely a release of optimism in excess. Unfortunately, No. Yesterday is today is tomorrow works when Sentiment is increasing. This Selloff came on declining Investor Sentiment, a very real loss of Confidence, and a late-stage rally on the extremely poor breadth and declining Volumes. AMZN was the first to give up the Ghost and did it. According to the Bulls - it's back to all-time highs. This requires a large amount of work for Price and ignores a great many Fundamental Macro Factors BUlls have dismissed for a lengthy period of time. Gap to Fill to Range into Break It is too early to know as this would develop over time, can Price chop in a large range for weeks to a month into November? It would require a number of conditions - the 21/34/50EMAs would need to begin to turn up on Larger TF's to flatten out ever so slightly. Oscillators would need to remove the extremely Negative conditions don't the WEEKLY TF. The 50EMAs on the DAILY TF would need to be broken and hold Price between 21/34/50EMAs which are compressing and relatively tight. Price would need to range into a Break Up or Down. We saw the NQ Retrace over the .500 and onto the -.382 yesterday on the draw from 15399 to 14367. It did not however complete the .500 if the larger Full Range Draw from 15708 to 14367. Price will decide as Price provides further evidence as to the complexity of this Retracement. Gap and Trap to Fail IN a downtrend, the 21/34/50 tend to provide Resistance. The Levels act as a ceiling typically, although we have seen a great many over-throws of Resistance only to Trap Buyers @ Highs as Price reverses adding further Energy for downside Momentum as the "Oh Sh_t" point of recognition becomes a momentary lapse of reason for the first few Dunks... they buy the Dip until it stops working, which adds further Energy as they have not only compounded their Capital Issues, but engendered the rest of the BTD Herd with bravado as they chase their averages lower... until the losses compound to such a degree, they become the Egg People and SELL at the Lows. We have seen this time and again. Inexperienced Investors wander and make all sorts of "pronouncements" Nasdaq 18K", "Dow 37K", "ES 5000" - Eggo's in the toaster... is what they quickly become. Undeterred, they begin calling bottoms. And upon any retracement of any size... the BUll is Back Baby~! This has always been Degenerate Gambling with little to no patience of any kind, simply a self-fulfilling YOLO prophecy which paid the Bills for awhile. In 2002, all that will change as a 50% correction will begin after we complete 5/5. The DG's will finally be pummeled to the point of prior generational lessons learned. It is simply our nature, short memories and high expectations. "I'm a winner~!" In the Age of everyone gets a trophy, the gene pool becomes murky in the Deeper end of the kiddie pool, which seems to be endless in length. The needs for Chlorine are immense as the waters are contaminated with fecal matter. Enough about PYS, onto the what Price is up to. We are waiting to see if Price pivots to the Larger Daily Draw from 15708 to 14367. Today is Pivotal as next week is all about Inflation by the Numbers. More time will be required, perhaps into Tuesday... to determine how the underlying Structure is shaping up. _____________________________________________________ So here's that word again - Patience Price will inform us of what we need to know. Patience. _____________________________________________________ My belief is we see Price head to the 200SMAs and break them after another Counter Trend off the 200SMAs, towards the 400SMAs. This would land the ES at 3850 to 3912 to 3982... The NQ the mid to lower 12Ks. The YM, 28.2 to 30 to 31K. We caught the easy $ on our projected decline... Hanging on to it here and giving it time to resolve... is wise IMHO. There is an extraordinary amount of Fundamental Influences ahead. They have yet to be told, we have covered them repeatedly. Go Back and read prior commentaries if you recently arrived, thank you. The VIX and VXN - the levels are in prior commentary... This will be today's only update as more information needs to be observed for Price. I'll leave you with, what else... Patience. Thank you and have a Blessed Weekend. - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
18
NQ: the case for a sell and the case for a buyI have been only focused on NQ this week. To my analizing it is the most interesting setup of the instruments I trade to my eyes. I have been watching my usuals like GC, CL, ES and the Russell but right now they do not interest me. Right now I am long NQ with my stop loss at break even or also the top of the purple rectangle. the rectangle is the do nothing zone. Or if you want to do something here I suggest that you sit on your hands because I will be sitting on mine. Trade setups: SHORT: - wait for price to drop below the do nothing rectangle. The bottom of this rectangle is support. If it breaks below this it will potential be resistance if it is retested and hold (confirmation), - as I alway will say, you can be aggressive and find a position before confirmation. Or play safe and make a position on confirmation. You can see my target for my shorts down below my entry. Long set up: -price is already in my long zone so I am in my position. I played it safe which is more uncommon for me as I usually like aggressive entry. But I waited for confirmation this time and support held so far. If you are wanting to be long you can enter right now, or wait if support is tested again. I don’t know which direction NQ will move but I like what I see if NQ goes up. You can see my 2 targets for long entry. Fact is I am going to go on a limb a say that if NQ has an up day then Friday NQ will close at 13621 and maybe a good chance for close at 13827 for a really big long. I don’t usually predict prices, but for fun I am now. But this is only if NQ finishes up tomorrow. And since nobody is ever good at predicting closing price I will probably be wrong, but my long targets number 1 and number 2 are still valid targets. I don’t have a good guess for closing price if NQ sells off tomorrow because I see more variables for a short case. So that’s it for now. We will see how it goes. As I always say, play safe and use stops. And whether you are short or long I hope everybody makes money. Please comment or give me a thumbs up if you find my idea interesting or helpful. I love all of you that take the time to read me. Even if my English isn’t so good. Lol ♥ Ms Bunny
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
6
NQ Batman Pattern Lives and Risks on the DownsideSince NQ started that awesome batman pattern back on July 20th, It has been swinging wildly up and down. But we find ourselves back at the top of the channel around 11,000 where anything can happen. So far NQ has burned up to tap a bit over 11,000 and correct immediately. We expect no different this time, but that doesnt mean it cant break out and fling itself higher. Maybe 11,350? That's where my top red line is at so that is pure speculation. However on the daily NQ looks like it is in a very gnarly ascending flag, bear style and ready to tear a new asshole into some FOMOing retail traders. We should know quickly this week if NQ needs to burn down or it will make a break for the border above. Until then I would keep your trigger finger near the sell button and set up some alarms both ways. If it flies up, let it run and then take profits! If it decides to fling itself to earth like the Space X Dragon Shuttle, then drop that b*tch like a hot potato. You can always buy more, but it sucks being underwater. At this point in the game, NQ has met its match for the moment and unless it clearly and decisively breaks through, we can expect this puppy to leave orbit and take a one-way ticket back down to earth. NQ short: SQQQ (use rarely, because shorting the NQ 99% of the time is like predicting you are going to be a millionaire tomorrow. Sure it might happen and maybe eventually it will happen. BUT LIKELY IT WON'T HAPPEN, so don't waste your time hoping).
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Harley_Drake
Wick Differential is an important part of target here in NQNQ was down -341 for the week as soon as the daily balance held on the day for NQ which was -60 and as soon as NQ went to +61 the obvious target was +341 and the high of the day was +347 for the bears who wanted to scalp on the puts this area was the best to short and around this level at 3:45 and gave a nice +3 point down move on the QQQs so how will I play this tomorrow I will only want to be long above +341 if NQ trades above 12553 will be long if it opens below it you can enter with a stop at 12553 this is the weekly balance tilt and if this balance tilt holds we can go up another 341+ by Friday minimum move will be half of +341 so +170 if the NQ does not take out +341 balance tilt in the first 10 minutes of tomorrows open it can go down -170 tomorrow before resuming the move up
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by GokselSecilmis
NQ | Price Action 6/7/2022I completely missed this mornings ES/NQ long entry. I was so focused on ES taking out the daily sellside liquidity at 4072 that I never looked at the NQ chart, even though I had it on one of my screens. The secret to deciphering today’s NY AM price action was to watch NQ. Because NQ did decisively take out the daily liquidity from the three days ago low. This was the key! As soon as NQ took out the daily liquidity I needed to zoom in to the 5,3,2,1 minute timeframes and look for Market Structure Shifts with obvious displacement. On the 3-minute NQ chart a FVG was created shortly after the 9:30 AM EST open in line with a MSS. Then a few minutes later the FVG was filled for a bullish entry and then price exploded up after that. Today's Takeaway As soon as daily liquidity is taken out immediately zoom in to the 5,3,2,1 minute timeframes and look for Market Structure Shifts with obvious displacement. ALWAYS! Chart
CME_MINI:NQM2022
by Infinity_Trading_
5
NQ-Using 2018 Ichimoku Momentum Patterns for CluesI've read a lot of articles recently comparing the 2018 Fed QT cycle to what is happening currently so I thought it would be interesting to compare market patterns. I am mostly interested in NQ because it is creating what appears to be a very clear expanding triangle on the weekly and if this is the case it could explode into one crazy squeeze to bring NQ to almost 20K by April/May 2022. I know, I know this sounds crazy but expanding triangles always end at 5 and based upon where I see the end of 4 we could see some crazy relentless squeeze. Using Ichimoku, I went back to 2018 and found were momentum (my purple line) closed below price on the weekly (Before Oct 22, 2018 momentum had not been below price since Jan 4, 2016 so this is a big deal). In 2018, once the weekly closed below price there was movement to the upside, just like we are currently seeing, however price to the upside was limited to where momentum (purple line) touched the actual weekly candle top. In this case, price on NQ would be limited to 15,157.25 (roughly) before moving back down to a price that is lower than what we saw in January. The monthly futures for NQ also just opened Feb 1st below the monthly Tenkan San line which is a bearish sign IMO. The Feb Monthly Tenkan San line is 15,114.88...this will also create another area of strong resistance going into February and is pretty darn close to 15,157.25. Based upon 2018, max pain/capitulation for NQ due to Fed QT will come when momentum goes below the Kijun line (orange line) and we have yet to get below that line, even with last weeks low. The .382 from the Covid low is 12,894.50. I'm not sure we hit this figure but it's in line with my expanding triangle analysis and my "momentum" analysis from 2018 Ichimoku. Notice my teal line...this also makes symmetrical sense but I think the angle of this line will be straight up as the squeeze will be vicious once we find support. Or maybe we have found support and are off the races...I'll believe that once we bullishly close above 15,157.25.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Vixtine
1
NQ - 4 Hr V.1Market Observations will be on hold for the next 7-10 Days beginning Tuesday after the NYSE Close. We will be relocating our arrangements during this period. We raised our Cash Position to 91.28%. TLT Puts - Sole Position. NQ remains in a weakened and weakening Position. Friday we saw the 1 Hr Moving Average Convergence Divergence turn Negative. The 1 Hr closed @ its SMA Resistance. $6.24B had been made available in UST CP's for Desks to cycle into Futures and they did so. The bulk of selling was completed from EU Session Open to NYSE Open. Again trapping Globex Retail Sellers near Lows. Understandable given the weakening conditions... Unfortunately, Retailers seem to forget - Fridays are an easy day for Desks to move Equities Higher. What Trades FIRST always matters - Support or Resistance... Our only Fill for Sells was at the Gap Fill, it was closed on closed to CASH. 3/3 Structure Count held as no new High was Printed. The 50 has crossed below the 200 on the 1 Hr TF. This can change IF conditions permit a higher high over 15364, the Count could easily move to 5/5. Retracements, historically, of this nature, are 5 to 9 trading days. They can extend BUT it is extremely unusual given the Larger Divergences, all it takes is further Liquidity from the Fed - Coupon Purchases should be monitored closely. We are removing into EPS warnings and they have been noticeably quiet, they may begin after the close of Q3 and into the latter part of the 1st week of October. It is best to remember there arrive after RTH hours, rarely during this time of year. We shall see as there will be a mountain of them. Porsche has delivered just shy of 1,800 vehicles this year, Volkswagen AG Parent has birthed a disaster for its Sporto Lux Box Brand. During 2019, they delivered well over 60K Units. The Semiconductor shortage - the reason cited for the decline in Sales. And so it goes, the collapse in Sales is Global among TECH and Interdependent TECH. This has yet to be priced IN and although the pandering to the return of normalcy remains in the Media Complex, it is never going to happen. It takes time for consciousness to arise, and usually far too late to prevent harm. NQ is the odd Indy, It survives on the whims of Call Buyers, Gamma Squeezes, and trapping Sellers at Lows. The actual Buy SIde Share Volumes are quite low and OBV remains decidedly Negative. The larger Structure remains Negative, the intermediate Micro Structures are wholly dependent on FED Liquidity. Tech Margins, it is recognized by Desks - do not matter yet, they will, but for now, all eyes there are on the 1.51 Level for the 10 Year Treasury Yield and the 1.72 Level. We believe the Highs for Yields will be exceeded and we may well see a 2% + Print for Yields. The Bond Market is challenging the FED, YCC is abating for now and the Long Con for USTs is coming into view as Global efforts are being made to install Digital Transactions in Sum Total. 2022 will be an interesting year as the reality of this transition takes hold. It will be fought with extreme levels of anger, disgust, and distrust - overall distaste. Ultimately, it will fail but that is several years in the making and a great many disruptions later to every arrangement within our lives. A very serious affair for Humanity itself, one that will require flexibility and the willingness to accept the fluidity of the status quo. This has been turned on its head. 4/5 on the Larger Daily TF remains in trade. We remain up against the 2010 Trendline Failure. We found to support the Shorter TF 200. The Stochastic is weakening, stalling out, the MACD remains in Trend, which is heavily Negative. We are stalling @ the 21SMA on the 1 Hr. The Gap has filled. The issue becomes does the MACD flatten out or move to Neutral. We see the 15735 as a False Toss Over High as a potential into the First week in October. It is important to remember the Ranges have expanded, the range is immense at this point and we will see if we get a larger counter-trend or IF we have peaked again. The FED can change Price at will, all it takes is Liquidity. It is interesting as the ES has completed its retracement, while the NQ is at a point of potential consolidation. Over Throw moves are designed to run all stops and create further confusion. Best to be aware and observant of Structures on All Timeframes. The VXN remains the Leader to follow - We are paying close attention to NQ VX. It will provide all the information as to how high this Counter-Trend will go. 19.76 has been an important DOM Level. For now, it is best to Observe and not guess, we will watch it trade Monday & Tuesday. The highs are likely in, probability favors this. Weekly Timeframe is a horror show, Histogram has turned Negative and found support at the 21EMA Weekly. Stochastics have broken Support on the Weekly timeframe as well. As we move out in Time, the NQ appears very Weak. How determined are the Complex Players to defend it, we shall see. Any larger retracement is an even greater opportunity to SELL. We believe this next reversal will be extreme it is Scope, Scale, and Velocity. *** The VIX 50 SMA is rising A/D line holding below 50... see the VXN - a mixed bag. One enormous brew for Intense Volatility.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
25
NQ - Building December SELLs NQ ES RTY YM - First EntriesMNQ STO - 10 x 15365 MNQ STO - 5 x 15360 MNQ STO - 5 x 15355 MNQ STO - 5 x 15350 EQ - 2.5 NQ Sells After Kaplans later Friday reversal, the die was cast for the cartoonish over throw. Our Initial Target from 3 weeks ago was 15363, this target was met and exceeded in the NQ SEP CT @ 15384. We will continue to use SEP as the BTO Hedge, we closed 2 NQ from 170 break at 322. We hold Zero SEP Hedge for NQ currently. We remain in a large Bid for SOXS, with 28K @ 6.91~ ES -STO 6.5K CTs RTY - 0 Positions YM - 0 Positions CL - STO 7K 65.87 VXX - BTO 6 CTs 2644 VX - M1/M2/M3 BTO 8 CTs on Curve VXM - M1 40MCTs SOXS - 28K ~ 6.912 ___________________________________________________________________________ The VIX Curve implies an 86% chance of increased Volatility for the Indices today. Extremes in many metrics and indicators, keep us in a Line Feed Out strategy for a violent reversal. The Monthly patterns, imho - are completing off two historic conditions: 1. A break away monthly Gap - never occurred in History, never. 2. 7 Monthly Bull Bars probability is 12:1 against. An 8th has never occurred in the past 25 Years. Market breadth is extreme in its weakness. Gamma was once again the driver, with vastly reduced Call Volumes. AAPL TSLA GOOG NVDA - another attempt at GS will fail imho AMC Apes bought the 39s... we are seller of AMC from 37.50 to 41.00 TSLA - Sellers at 720 - 750 ARKK - Sellers 120.11 to 125 WE Anticipate a violent reversal very soon. Ideally, today should close Negative no later than Globex. Prosperity to those positioned for the reversal. - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
17
NQ quick night updateI have sent a bigger update to those who are on my email list with an updated SPX chart, which I will post tomorrow after I see reaction of my main target. NQ update for tomorrow: - NQ Maj support is at 13510, break it below and retested will be a perfect short for a trip down to 13130-200, depending on the time of landing. - NQ I have also a good fib confluence at 13866-98 and 930+- zone for a possible extension higher. If we hold 510-30, then I would be long for that final move up with a tight stop around 490 or so. Enjoy!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RealTima
1
NQ - Daily Perspective w/ TL's from February 2020 Low 199K Payrolls at 424 Q4 Indicator Leisure and Hospitality along with Technology Services led the gainers by Sector. NQ lost 4.7% for the start of 2022 - its worst week since February 2021. A Rotation away from Growth due to ROC's in the 10 Year UST as forward EPS is discounted forward. Value, Financials, and Energy began an early rotation which may well be faltering. The FOMC Minutes indicated an acceleration to Tightening measures and potentially offload portions of its Balance Sheet, namely MBS, RMBS and UST's out the Curve. BOA, WELLs, JPM, CITI are attempting to move higher ahead of January 11. Technology is down 7.97% while Energy is up 8%. _______________________________________________________________ Cyclicals, Services, Technology - have an overweighted TECH component. Crypto has continued its decline, 42k was an important Level for BTC, it provides a clear downtrend channel of lower highs and lower lows. BTC has support at 37K, 33K, and 30K - it has not followed TNX as it has in the past. Risk-off in Cryptos, which provide a solid indication, speculation is being curtailed in ALL Asset categories where Growth speculation was the front forward component. The NQ could trade down as much as 23% as we indicated in December, an additional 15% from current levels. 14,100 should provide an interim Low, Traders will need to observe this level with caution. It could Fail or Fail on a second test of the level. Dips should not be bought until the NQ resolves to Lower Price Objectives into Wednesday, they are not to be trusted IMHO. We anticipate an eventual squeeze RT should the BLS Data Wednesday be used for a Higher Fill into continued Selling. The NQ could fall 12% - Patience will be rewarded and there is no hurry. We will see for the 10Yr Yeidl responds by the, it may well make a small Pullback providing a relief retracement for the NQ.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
2
NQ - 15 Minute TradingBuy low and Buy Lows again. VXN Gap FIll provides cover, ES trading with the NYSE Tick. TECH winners are being sold against High Gamma. An unusual combination that will require sellers to let off the sustained Selling and sell into RT's . NQ's -.382 up and over provides a squeeze. .764s no real support - a catalyst for up/down pivot. ___________________________________________ 48 scalps this moring using 30X MNQ's against 5 NQ for 8/8 Cts to manage entries. 15 min Range provided lower high 30 min Range higher high by a margin Observing the 711s come back into Fills for NQ VXN GAP @ 21.32 *** Below Momentum and Trend Clouds on 15 minute ___________________________________________ ALGO Tuesday came early - Ranging today in expanding Range Top to Bottom. RTY remains weak sister, DX & TNX chopping into a tighter wedge which will break hard into 2022. AAPL attempts 182s and the Gamma Squeeze will shover the NQ on to the .500^ Level. AMZN, FB, and TSLA doing the bulk of the work today. SMH Profit taking on a number of former leaders. Sell winners remain in the trade until the Jumbos let off. RUT being smoked again on RT 260s Crypto unsupportive... largely lower across the Spectrum at -6% Crude Oil has sellers stacked at 81.12
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
5
NQ - 1Hr Arrangement / Organization / ComplexityWeekly Duration close Week over Week: Prior Week @ 15134.50 Week End @ 15341.00 The Range for Closing Week @ 15037.75-15483.75 Price broke the prior Week's close @ 15134.50 by 96.75 Ticks. This is important as we see this pattern emerge time and again. It permits the alleviation of Elevated Indicators. As this occurs, ranges widen until they begin to compress on the Weekly Timeframe. A Negative condition that requires time to resolve. When it completes - it resolves Down. In the interim, it creates Intra-Day Ranges which, although large and volatile - begin to decrease. As Time expands and compresses - we observe this specific Price action in both BUY/SELL. From the Ledge of 15399.25 to the lows for this Week @ 14537, the Range was 862 Ticks. The following Week - 15001 - 14367 / 634 Ticks. A Counter-trend confirmation we indicated as Price reached the Lower Trend Line of the Larger Timeframes. We indicated 2X confirmation, suggesting it would be Gap 2 Trap or Gap 2 Fill - exiting the SELL and beginning Micro TF BUYs to scalp without "Positions" into the Counter-Trend. Entering on Close for Globex Session and during RTH, closing O/N Session prior to NYSE Open while scalping the RTH Session at Intra-day time intervals we have provided by Session and Period. Our Weekly STO Indicator has crossed Positive, the MACD's slope downward is declining but remains very Negative. DMI is now expanding with a failure to cross at the low of 14367.75. Weekly RSI @ 63.332 There remains a Divergence as Volumes are dropping again on the Weekly. ____________________________________________________________ The 50 is above the 200SMA on the Hourly TF. NQ has closed within 225 Ticks of the ATHs. A Chart of the Yield Relationship Ratio to NQ was added to commentary this week. AS we saw a clear divergence in this Ratio whereby as 10Yr Yields were moving higher, the Net Effect on the NQ was lessening. Further Divergences are anticipated as Levels remain elevated for the NQ Short Duration TFs.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
NQ breaks to new highs. Markets reacting to Election ResultsThis upward trend seems to have some momentum today. I'm not suggesting traders chase this rally and hold anything overnight, but I am seeing new highs on the ES/NQ charts, and IWM and other sectors are rallying to new ATHs today as well. This shows the scale of capital sitting and waiting for the election to play out. Traders were very concerned with the election outcome. At this point, I consider this rally phase a bit overcooked. The ES and NQ will likely continue to try to push higher as we move into the Santa Rally phase, but as a trader, I would be cautious of any overreaction to the election results. My best advice for my followers is to continue trading in minimal quantities unless you can handle taking huge lumps/losses over the next 3 to 4 days. The US markets will settle into next week, and after this emotional price move subsides, we'll start to trend based on more logical economic data. There will be some huge opportunities for skilled traders over the next 5+ months. Get ready. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
1
NQ OverviewThe NQ 1-hour chart depicts a clear trading range between the key resistance at 16,085 and the current key support at 15,940, with a prevailing bullish sentiment within this range. Below the key support, a previously tested demand zone ranging from 15,930 to 15,890 exists. Shorting into this demand zone carries high risk, requiring a loss of the key support level at 15,830 to trigger a substantial pullback. My trading plan involves exploring short scalping opportunities at the upper range boundary, with conservative targets of 5-10 points, given the elevated risk associated with shorting. Additionally, I plan to consider long positions at key support and demand levels, contingent on the continuation of demand and support signals. It's noteworthy that NQ is potentially forming a bullish flag pattern with support at 15,940, characterized by lower highs forming into support, suggesting a possible breakout. The question of how long NQ can sustain its ascent before a pullback is a valid one. However, it's essential not to let speculative scenarios influence your bias and instead focus on trading based on observed price action and chart analysis, which currently supports a bullish sentiment.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by AmpedTrading
NQ 4-Hour Bull FlagA potential bull flag is emerging on the NQ 4-hour chart, with the 15945 level acting as critical support. As the market experiences a period of consolidation, we observe a gradual descent towards this support zone. This consolidation phase, following a prolonged bull run, raises questions about the market's next move: will the bull flag lead to another upward leg, or are we poised for a necessary pullback? Both NQ and ES are currently in a cooling-off phase, forming additional breakout patterns. On a higher time frame, the key support to monitor remains at the 15945 zone.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by AmpedTrading
NQ with Head and Shoulders Pattern Identified on the 4H CME_MINI:NQ1! A Head and Shoulders pattern was identified on the 4H timeframe. This pattern was identified in confluence with a bear flag pattern on the 1H timeframe. Price then broke just below the flag. I believe that NQ will see more downside. After I zoomed out further, I noticed that we spiked from a demand zone November 10, 2022. Perhaps NQ will retrace back to where it spiked from on November 10, 2022. A screenshot is provided below for your review. After I zoomed out further, I noticed that we spiked from a demand zone November 10, 2022. Perhaps NQ will retrace back to where it spiked from on November 10, 2022. A screenshot is provided below for a quick reference. *This is not financial advice. If you like my trading idea follow or search "MrALtrades00" on the TradingView platform for more ideas. MrALtrades00
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by MrALtrades00
1