Market Observations will be on hold for the next 7-10 Days beginning Tuesday after the NYSE Close. We will be relocating
our arrangements during this period. We raised our Cash Position to 91.28%. TLT Puts - Sole Position.
NQ remains in a weakened and weakening Position. Friday we saw the 1 Hr Moving Average Convergence Divergence turn Negative.
The 1 Hr closed @ its SMA Resistance.
$6.24B had been made available in UST CP's for Desks to cycle into Futures and they did so.
The bulk of selling was completed from EU Session Open to NYSE Open.
Again trapping Globex Retail Sellers near Lows. Understandable given the weakening conditions...
Unfortunately, Retailers seem to forget - Fridays are an easy day for Desks to move Equities Higher.
What Trades FIRST always matters - Support or Resistance...
Our only Fill for Sells was at the Gap Fill, it was closed on closed to CASH.
3/3 Structure Count held as no new High was Printed.
The 50 has crossed below the 200 on the 1 Hr TF.
This can change IF conditions permit a higher high over 15364, the Count could easily move to 5/5.
Retracements, historically, of this nature, are 5 to 9 trading days. They can extend BUT it is extremely
unusual given the Larger Divergences, all it takes is further Liquidity from the Fed - Coupon Purchases
should be monitored closely.
We are removing into EPS warnings and they have been noticeably quiet, they may begin after the close
of Q3 and into the latter part of the 1st week of October.
It is best to remember there arrive after RTH hours, rarely during this time of year. We shall see as there
will be a mountain of them.
Porsche has delivered just shy of 1,800 vehicles this year, Volkswagen AG Parent has birthed a disaster for its Sporto
Lux Box Brand. During 2019, they delivered well over 60K Units.
The Semiconductor shortage - the reason cited for the decline in Sales.
And so it goes, the collapse in Sales is Global among TECH and Interdependent TECH.
This has yet to be priced IN and although the pandering to the return of normalcy remains in the Media Complex,
it is never going to happen.
It takes time for consciousness to arise, and usually far too late to prevent harm.
NQ is the odd Indy, It survives on the whims of Call Buyers, Gamma Squeezes, and trapping Sellers at Lows.
The actual Buy SIde Share Volumes are quite low and OBV remains decidedly Negative.
The larger Structure remains Negative, the intermediate Micro Structures are wholly dependent on FED Liquidity.
Tech Margins, it is recognized by Desks - do not matter yet, they will, but for now, all eyes there are on the 1.51
Level for the 10 Year Treasury Yield and the 1.72 Level.
We believe the Highs for Yields will be exceeded and we may well see a 2% + Print for Yields.
The Bond Market is challenging the FED, YCC is abating for now and the Long Con for USTs is coming into view
as Global efforts are being made to install Digital Transactions in Sum Total.
2022 will be an interesting year as the reality of this transition takes hold. It will be fought with extreme levels
of anger, disgust, and distrust - overall distaste.
Ultimately, it will fail but that is several years in the making and a great many disruptions later to every arrangement
within our lives. A very serious affair for Humanity itself, one that will require flexibility and the willingness to accept
the fluidity of the status quo.
This has been turned on its head.
4/5 on the Larger Daily TF remains in trade. We remain up against the 2010 Trendline Failure. We found to support
the Shorter TF 200. The Stochastic is weakening, stalling out, the MACD remains in Trend, which is heavily Negative.
We are stalling @ the 21SMA on the 1 Hr. The Gap has filled.
The issue becomes does the MACD flatten out or move to Neutral. We see the 15735 as a False Toss Over High as
a potential into the First week in October.
It is important to remember the Ranges have expanded, the range is immense at this point and we will see if we
get a larger counter-trend or IF we have peaked again.
The FED can change Price at will, all it takes is Liquidity.
It is interesting as the ES has completed its retracement, while the NQ is at a point of potential consolidation.
Over Throw moves are designed to run all stops and create further confusion.
Best to be aware and observant of Structures on All Timeframes.
The VXN remains the Leader to follow - We are paying close attention to NQ VX. It will provide all the information
as to how high this Counter-Trend will go.
19.76 has been an important DOM Level.
For now, it is best to Observe and not guess, we will watch it trade Monday & Tuesday.
The highs are likely in, probability favors this.
Weekly Timeframe is a horror show, Histogram has turned Negative and found support at the 21EMA Weekly.
Stochastics have broken Support on the Weekly timeframe as well.
As we move out in Time, the NQ appears very Weak. How determined are the Complex Players to defend it, we shall
see.
Any larger retracement is an even greater opportunity to SELL.
We believe this next reversal will be extreme it is Scope, Scale, and Velocity.
*** The VIX 50 SMA is rising A/D line holding below 50... see the VXN - a mixed bag.
One enormous brew for Intense Volatility.
our arrangements during this period. We raised our Cash Position to 91.28%. TLT Puts - Sole Position.
NQ remains in a weakened and weakening Position. Friday we saw the 1 Hr Moving Average Convergence Divergence turn Negative.
The 1 Hr closed @ its SMA Resistance.
$6.24B had been made available in UST CP's for Desks to cycle into Futures and they did so.
The bulk of selling was completed from EU Session Open to NYSE Open.
Again trapping Globex Retail Sellers near Lows. Understandable given the weakening conditions...
Unfortunately, Retailers seem to forget - Fridays are an easy day for Desks to move Equities Higher.
What Trades FIRST always matters - Support or Resistance...
Our only Fill for Sells was at the Gap Fill, it was closed on closed to CASH.
3/3 Structure Count held as no new High was Printed.
The 50 has crossed below the 200 on the 1 Hr TF.
This can change IF conditions permit a higher high over 15364, the Count could easily move to 5/5.
Retracements, historically, of this nature, are 5 to 9 trading days. They can extend BUT it is extremely
unusual given the Larger Divergences, all it takes is further Liquidity from the Fed - Coupon Purchases
should be monitored closely.
We are removing into EPS warnings and they have been noticeably quiet, they may begin after the close
of Q3 and into the latter part of the 1st week of October.
It is best to remember there arrive after RTH hours, rarely during this time of year. We shall see as there
will be a mountain of them.
Porsche has delivered just shy of 1,800 vehicles this year, Volkswagen AG Parent has birthed a disaster for its Sporto
Lux Box Brand. During 2019, they delivered well over 60K Units.
The Semiconductor shortage - the reason cited for the decline in Sales.
And so it goes, the collapse in Sales is Global among TECH and Interdependent TECH.
This has yet to be priced IN and although the pandering to the return of normalcy remains in the Media Complex,
it is never going to happen.
It takes time for consciousness to arise, and usually far too late to prevent harm.
NQ is the odd Indy, It survives on the whims of Call Buyers, Gamma Squeezes, and trapping Sellers at Lows.
The actual Buy SIde Share Volumes are quite low and OBV remains decidedly Negative.
The larger Structure remains Negative, the intermediate Micro Structures are wholly dependent on FED Liquidity.
Tech Margins, it is recognized by Desks - do not matter yet, they will, but for now, all eyes there are on the 1.51
Level for the 10 Year Treasury Yield and the 1.72 Level.
We believe the Highs for Yields will be exceeded and we may well see a 2% + Print for Yields.
The Bond Market is challenging the FED, YCC is abating for now and the Long Con for USTs is coming into view
as Global efforts are being made to install Digital Transactions in Sum Total.
2022 will be an interesting year as the reality of this transition takes hold. It will be fought with extreme levels
of anger, disgust, and distrust - overall distaste.
Ultimately, it will fail but that is several years in the making and a great many disruptions later to every arrangement
within our lives. A very serious affair for Humanity itself, one that will require flexibility and the willingness to accept
the fluidity of the status quo.
This has been turned on its head.
4/5 on the Larger Daily TF remains in trade. We remain up against the 2010 Trendline Failure. We found to support
the Shorter TF 200. The Stochastic is weakening, stalling out, the MACD remains in Trend, which is heavily Negative.
We are stalling @ the 21SMA on the 1 Hr. The Gap has filled.
The issue becomes does the MACD flatten out or move to Neutral. We see the 15735 as a False Toss Over High as
a potential into the First week in October.
It is important to remember the Ranges have expanded, the range is immense at this point and we will see if we
get a larger counter-trend or IF we have peaked again.
The FED can change Price at will, all it takes is Liquidity.
It is interesting as the ES has completed its retracement, while the NQ is at a point of potential consolidation.
Over Throw moves are designed to run all stops and create further confusion.
Best to be aware and observant of Structures on All Timeframes.
The VXN remains the Leader to follow - We are paying close attention to NQ VX. It will provide all the information
as to how high this Counter-Trend will go.
19.76 has been an important DOM Level.
For now, it is best to Observe and not guess, we will watch it trade Monday & Tuesday.
The highs are likely in, probability favors this.
Weekly Timeframe is a horror show, Histogram has turned Negative and found support at the 21EMA Weekly.
Stochastics have broken Support on the Weekly timeframe as well.
As we move out in Time, the NQ appears very Weak. How determined are the Complex Players to defend it, we shall
see.
Any larger retracement is an even greater opportunity to SELL.
We believe this next reversal will be extreme it is Scope, Scale, and Velocity.
*** The VIX 50 SMA is rising A/D line holding below 50... see the VXN - a mixed bag.
One enormous brew for Intense Volatility.
TLT Position Closures Today @ > 131.40 ZN
Closing 100 x 152 Puts
Closing 100 x 151 Puts
Closing 100 x 150 Puts
Open 100 x 151~
Open 100 x 149
Open 60 x 148
Open 60 x 147
Open 60 x 140