elp

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Markets Allocation
35 % indices 24 % commodities 20 % forex 20 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
SP:SPX 14% | 7 FX:SPX 12% | 6 ES1! 10% | 5 INDU 8% | 4
elp elp DJI, W,
DJI: Dow histrionic discombobulation and for my record.
208 1 8
DJI, W
Dow histrionic discombobulation and for my record.

I haven´t posted ideas in a long time because there was really nothing to say with the market grinding higher. I have noticed how the dow tends to respect whole numbers. Looking at the yr 2016 lows to current price, the dow has stalled at whole numbers more than it has traded right past them. Only two times did the dow trade past whole numbers at 17k and 19k. ...

elp elp NQ1!, D,
NQ1!: NQ Broadening Top
181 5 7
NQ1!, D
NQ Broadening Top

The NQ is making a broadening top pattern. This is not a bearish or bullish pattern, since it trends upward 49.6% of the time and downward 50.3% of time. It has a nice look, where price was trending upward 6 months leading into the pattern, with downward sloping volume. To pick a top in this market is dangerous, with the low volume grind. I am looking for clear ...

elp elp SPX, 240,
SPX: General Thoughts
113 3 12
SPX, 240
General Thoughts

Every day going into the election, November 8th general election, December 19th electoral college votes, Jan 6th Congress counts and announces the winner of the electoral college, have been positive days,that continued into the next trading day. I am not saying the SPX is going to make a new all time high on Monday. However, I believe Monday could have an upside ...

elp elp DJI, D, Long ,
DJI: DJIA is hinting @ a possible HUGE rally for the next few yrs
171 13 9
DJI, D Long
DJIA is hinting @ a possible HUGE rally for the next few yrs

Currently the 6th time in one hundred years the DOW has been as overbought on the RSI. In 1944 the DOW rallied 3.4 % higher first, then pulled back 4.5% yet in the other 4 times, the DOW pulled back 4-6% then had an upside bias for the next 2-3 years, where the DOW rallied 89% - 17% - 49% - 118% - 82% In each period after the rally finished, the DOW had a ...

elp elp ES1!, 120, Long ,
ES1!: ES ivhs
103 11 5
ES1!, 120 Long
ES ivhs

Notes on chart. As per Bulkowski ivhs guidelines, this looks almost like a textbook pattern. As long as 2195 is defended as support, the ES and SPX have an upside bias. See the patternsite dot com (inverse head and shoulders) for source information.

elp elp SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: SPX Upside Bias
216 8 8
SPX, D Long
SPX Upside Bias

Looking at the SPX, it has an upside bias as long as it continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The current rally off the brexit lows and pullback from the august high has a similar look compared to the rally off the feb low to april high to the brexit low. Both periods seem to have pulled back 38.2% of the previous rally and looking at the X axis. The ...

elp elp EURUSD, M, Short ,
EURUSD: Euro possible lower MM target
137 4 7
EURUSD, M Short
Euro possible lower MM target

The euro is continuing to find resistance at 2015 year highs where there seems to be an upper TL forming. I believe rallies if price trades back up to it would offer a good RR opportunity to sell the euro with a stop above the year 2015 high. Alternately, a break of year 2015 low on a strong daily close would offer another opportunity to sell the euro. Looking at ...

elp elp SPX, D,
SPX: Time, Price & Patterns
384 8 10
SPX, D
Time, Price & Patterns

The SPX is coming into an area of time where price has been weak and the bears control price. Do not know if this setup will happen again. Just recognize there is a good RR probability for a short trade to the HWB at 1960 if price and time still has memory. Looking left starting with the May ATH. Price made a triple top in May, June, July where once price crossed ...

elp elp NQ1!, M, Long ,
NQ1!: NQ ideas for the month of april 2016
91 10 4
NQ1!, M Long
NQ ideas for the month of april 2016

Looking at time and price on the NQ continual contract. From the march yr 2000 high to the november low in yr 2008, 100% of time projected into the future is july yr 2017. Although the correction ended in march yr 2009 with a marginal higher low making a bouble bottom. So 100% in time could extend a few months out and end in march of yr 2018 where price could try ...

elp elp SI1!, W, Short ,
SI1!: Sell Silver Rallies
412 11 7
SI1!, W Short
Sell Silver Rallies

Commercial is the most short silver since october 2009 and at levels similar to silver´s 2008 highs. The COT INDEX is giving a strong sell signal for silver. When commercial is selling heavily, large and retail are buying heavily. Commercial is currently at 0, large is at 98.92, with retail at 100 When Commercial is selling with large and retail buying, silver ...

elp elp BCB/UDJIAD1, M, Short ,
BCB/UDJIAD1: Sell Rallies
259 21 6
BCB/UDJIAD1, M Short
Sell Rallies

Most people only look at price and forget about time. When time and price meet, price can have a big reaction. Using fibonacci in time. Anchors, yr 1896 ATL to yr 1929 H, project fib ratios out in time, there seems to be a pattern from observation. Years 1942, 1950, 1974 & 1982 these fib ratios showed price was at the end of a correction with the 38.2 being the ...

elp elp ES1!, D,
ES1!: ES Time and Price
147 10 7
ES1!, D
ES Time and Price

Looking at the ES there seems to be a possible M pattern setting up. I don´t know if it will trade but it almost looks text book as per Bulkowski. Also, time and price seem to be lining up. From the May 19th high to the August 24th low and the August 24th low to the November 27th high, = 100% in time. While November 3rd was the higher high in November. November 27 ...

elp elp NQZ2015, D,
NQZ2015: NQZ2015 OBSERVATIONS
32 2 4
NQZ2015, D
NQZ2015 OBSERVATIONS

NQ Dec contract looks like it´s at resistance or one more try at 4762/65 then pullback. I believe the NQ could pullback this coming week. I don´t know since my chrystal ball is broken at the moment. But I wouldn´t be going long at current prices without a pullback. Towards the end of Nov the contract channel and 1.618 (extension of a W1 imo) are on top of each ...

elp elp SPX, M, Long ,
SPX: SPX LOG SCALE CHANNEL
104 0 6
SPX, M Long
SPX LOG SCALE CHANNEL

SPX is still trading inside it´s log scale channel. Until it price closes for the month below the channel, price has an upside bias imo. Connecting the tops of monthly closes and from observation the bottom monthly closes held support which makes me belive this is a valid channel. Looking left of the chart the 90´s bull market and the mid 2000´s bull market traded ...

elp elp INDU, D,
INDU: DOW following an ATR topping pattern?
34 0 3
INDU, D
DOW following an ATR topping pattern?

I don´t know if this will workout. However the pattern of the atr and price is indicating a possible major price fall. Or this is a false reading. I don´t know yet. Only time will show if this is the case. This chart is not a sell or buy chart. It´s an observation of price and the atr possibly showing the DOW could correct more. If the DOW made new all time highs ...

elp elp ES1!, D, Short ,
ES1!: Time and Price at the 78.6
203 6 10
ES1!, D Short
Time and Price at the 78.6

Looking at the es and time with fibonacci on a x axis, price seems to have a reaction at the 27.2 - 61.8 - 78.6 fib ratios. Using the October 2014 low to May 2015 high as anchors for the x axis, from observation the 27.2 - 61.8- 78.6 have made alternating highs and lows. From October 2014 to May 2015 the 27.2 was a low, 61.8 a high and the 78.6 a low. From the ...

elp elp YAHOO/INDEX_GSPC, D, Short ,
YAHOO/INDEX_GSPC: IS THE S&P500 FOLLOWING YEARS 1965-1966? IF SO SHORT
190 3 7
YAHOO/INDEX_GSPC, D Short
IS THE S&P500 FOLLOWING YEARS 1965-1966? IF SO SHORT

October 2014 - October 2015 coppied and pasted on to years 1965-1966 correction rally and correction. Here is a possible fractal where current price could be following or rhyme with years 1965-1966. Both periods had an initial correction (october 2014) both periods had a powerful rally out of the correction lows that made a similar % move and time move from lows ...

elp elp ES1!, W, Long ,
ES1!: ES Commercial Net Interest Long Signal
277 11 9
ES1!, W Long
ES Commercial Net Interest Long Signal

Commercial net interest was stronger at the current yr 2015 lows than at the yr 2011 lows and yr 2007 lows before the yr 2007 ath. Both yrs 2007 and 2011 the commercial long signal resulted with the ES making a new all time high. I don´t know if price will follow this signal again. However price history can rhyme which could thrust the ES to new all time highs ...

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