GlobalMarketSignals

GlobalMarketSignals

Alright this is a straight forward easy idea. The bottom index is the S5TH which is the % of S&P500 stocks above their 200 day moving average. We are currently sitting a hair above 94% I'm using a weekly chart for the sake of simplicity as when this gets a weekly close above 94 the SPX will always pull back. Just scroll back on the chart and take a look for...

GlobalMarketSignals

Bitcoin is going to have to put in a big day to start this next leg up especially with it being at the 60k level. Here are the previous times BTC has crushed upper resistance. Today is off to a good start, seems like its about halfway there. Exciting!

GlobalMarketSignals

The pink line is the trend line I had in the linked idea and this black trend line is a new one that's popped up and we're sitting right on it. This is a sort of do or die level for the index here. If we see some strong selling overnight and into tomorrow, we could see some further downside to the 3700 area for starters.

GlobalMarketSignals

This is moreso a neutral analysis of the quarterly Dow Jones since it will take quite some time to play out. It's just a good thing to keep in the back of your mind as at the very least we are heading into a choppy/stagnant next few quarters. The highlight is simply a 4 period ROC above 40 while price makes a new 10 year quarterly closing high. **yes I know this...

GlobalMarketSignals

Big trendline from the March lows last year to the lows in November, we are basically right on it here. The market is obviously a little lofty but this has been a great pullback so far. Perhaps we bounce but if we keep selling I'll be keeping me eye on that 12,335 level on the daily. PS - Thanks @Prasad_Ari for pointing this one out!

GlobalMarketSignals

Inflation adjusted gold TVC:GOLD*FRED:CPIAUCSL*0.01 Taking the average breakout run up duration takes us basically into the 2024 election with an average gain of +500%. Gold obviously ought to increase tremendously in value over the course of the Biden/Harris administration. This situation unfortunately rests a lot on the politics and policies within next few...

GlobalMarketSignals

What a start to the year and what a week to end January with! Aside from all the market news and crazy activity, the ES1! did something quite precarious on Friday. It closed beneath a support trendline on the daily. Well who cares, trendlines break all the time. In this particular instance this is how the SP500 has topped for the past two years. If you scroll...

GlobalMarketSignals

Crude has had a spectacular run given the insane madness of last year. Here I just drew a curve that connects the points on the chart (1,2,3). What's interesting is that price tagged it last year in January 2020 as it came into additional price resistance then subsequently sold off sharply. Not that the exact same thing is going to happen but there is quite a bit...

GlobalMarketSignals

Alright so this one is simple and straight-forward. The investment strategy is considered neutral because I would never want to be swing short bitcoin in a bull run. Basically weekly RSI as it stands is above 84. I've highlighted the previous times this has happened going back to 2016 when it really started jumping out into the mainstream as it was in a wild bull...

GlobalMarketSignals

Here is the SPX/DXY chart. A pretty simple look at a monthly fib channel shows we are at a pretty crucial level at the 0.618 here. I've circled the other times that price has interacted with it. On two of the occasions it broke through to later retest it as support. For the most part it has acted as resistance. The SPX during these times, has basically moved...

GlobalMarketSignals

To answer the title - both. It's always good to hold gold as a core, however, it may be time to start thinking of hedging or perhaps trimming up some tactical positions. Gold is getting a little extended here on a monthly time frame. For a pullback, if there is one, I'd look to the original breakout point which sits at 1831.7. Of course there is the argument for...

GlobalMarketSignals

This is another relatively simple idea. As we are at the end of July we can start to take a closer look at monthly charts. 1. August has finished down (open to close) 60% of the time (12 of the last 20 years). 2. Coming into major multiyear trend lines, August seems to have been pivotal... literally. - August 2007 dropped and pierced support but closed above the...

GlobalMarketSignals

"I love gooooold, the look of it, the taste of it, the shmell of it, the texture..." I'm sure Goldmember would also love gold's seasonality right about now too! Gold has had an amazing run so far this year and it looks like its set to continue into October. I put together the closing high returns and closing low returns for the dates below! I hope it...

GlobalMarketSignals

This one is fairly simple, on a 2 week chart the NDX has had 8 consecutive up candles where each has had its close greater than its open. This has only happened a handle full of times and holding this short for 3 candles has yielded these results in the NDX going back to 1985. The other times where there has been this sort of move has been highlighted with a white...

GlobalMarketSignals

With this pair up the last 9/10 months and the tech bubble being up 10 months in a row before blowing the top... It is perhaps time to start thinking about SPX outperforming the NDX. This means it is a directionless position. How this is played out is short NDX and long SPX in equal weighting. i.e a profitable position will be when the SPX goes up more than...

GlobalMarketSignals

Hi there! This idea/trade is pretty simple and it comes up few and far between. It is strictly based on price and nothing else. Human nature never changes and it's interesting that the two times this has happened in the past were also during "panics". These trades typically last a few months so just keep that in mind. The details are below. All the...