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Ah good ol Saylor's BTC position will apparently face a margin call at $21,000. Just wanted to take a look at potential downside that is within the realm of historical possibility. The most severe pullbacks have sat in the 70-85% range. If we take a look and simply just map it out, $11,000 would certainly shake the hell out of the tree which is 84% down from the...

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Here is a weekly chart for btcusd on bitstamp. We are currently in a nice fat volume node here. The Jan 2020 - Dec 2021 value area high sits around 34k almost right in the middle of that HVN. Not a bad spot to stack some sats. BUT if we break, look for the high volume areas lower down, 28.8k pivot, 24k (small) HVN, then the big ol 20k breakout retest. This is more...

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Another straight forward idea, RTY came back into a very nice retracement area with the down sloping trend line and horizontal support from the September high. This is a great area to add for a bounce and a stop would be a daily close below today's low. The target is around the 2380 area, and if all goes well it should tag it before the end of the year.

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Pretty basic idea here. The low of the breakout week into new ATHs has never been tested after a breakout until now. It presents a great risk/reward opportunity on the long side as a simple weekly close below $197.70 would be the stop loss. The target would of course be the previous highs near $260 and beyond into new ATHs.

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Well this was an eventful week. Politics aside ES has sold off now 5 days in a row and sits right on top of the +1.5 std deviation of the yearly vwap. Obviously I am leaning for towards a technical bounce before more selling but just in case we don't I am eyeing the 4341.50-4371.50 yellow area for a larger bounce. As time goes on that +1 std deviation will move...

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Alright this is a straight forward easy idea. The bottom index is the S5TH which is the % of S&P500 stocks above their 200 day moving average. We are currently sitting a hair above 94% I'm using a weekly chart for the sake of simplicity as when this gets a weekly close above 94 the SPX will always pull back. Just scroll back on the chart and take a look for...

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Bitcoin is going to have to put in a big day to start this next leg up especially with it being at the 60k level. Here are the previous times BTC has crushed upper resistance. Today is off to a good start, seems like its about halfway there. Exciting!

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The pink line is the trend line I had in the linked idea and this black trend line is a new one that's popped up and we're sitting right on it. This is a sort of do or die level for the index here. If we see some strong selling overnight and into tomorrow, we could see some further downside to the 3700 area for starters.

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This is moreso a neutral analysis of the quarterly Dow Jones since it will take quite some time to play out. It's just a good thing to keep in the back of your mind as at the very least we are heading into a choppy/stagnant next few quarters. The highlight is simply a 4 period ROC above 40 while price makes a new 10 year quarterly closing high. **yes I know this...

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Big trendline from the March lows last year to the lows in November, we are basically right on it here. The market is obviously a little lofty but this has been a great pullback so far. Perhaps we bounce but if we keep selling I'll be keeping me eye on that 12,335 level on the daily. PS - Thanks @Prasad_Ari for pointing this one out!

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Inflation adjusted gold TVC:GOLD*FRED:CPIAUCSL*0.01 Taking the average breakout run up duration takes us basically into the 2024 election with an average gain of +500%. Gold obviously ought to increase tremendously in value over the course of the Biden/Harris administration. This situation unfortunately rests a lot on the politics and policies within next few...

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What a start to the year and what a week to end January with! Aside from all the market news and crazy activity, the ES1! did something quite precarious on Friday. It closed beneath a support trendline on the daily. Well who cares, trendlines break all the time. In this particular instance this is how the SP500 has topped for the past two years. If you scroll...

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Crude has had a spectacular run given the insane madness of last year. Here I just drew a curve that connects the points on the chart (1,2,3). What's interesting is that price tagged it last year in January 2020 as it came into additional price resistance then subsequently sold off sharply. Not that the exact same thing is going to happen but there is quite a bit...

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Alright so this one is simple and straight-forward. The investment strategy is considered neutral because I would never want to be swing short bitcoin in a bull run. Basically weekly RSI as it stands is above 84. I've highlighted the previous times this has happened going back to 2016 when it really started jumping out into the mainstream as it was in a wild bull...

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Here is the SPX/DXY chart. A pretty simple look at a monthly fib channel shows we are at a pretty crucial level at the 0.618 here. I've circled the other times that price has interacted with it. On two of the occasions it broke through to later retest it as support. For the most part it has acted as resistance. The SPX during these times, has basically moved...

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To answer the title - both. It's always good to hold gold as a core, however, it may be time to start thinking of hedging or perhaps trimming up some tactical positions. Gold is getting a little extended here on a monthly time frame. For a pullback, if there is one, I'd look to the original breakout point which sits at 1831.7. Of course there is the argument for...

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This is another relatively simple idea. As we are at the end of July we can start to take a closer look at monthly charts. 1. August has finished down (open to close) 60% of the time (12 of the last 20 years). 2. Coming into major multiyear trend lines, August seems to have been pivotal... literally. - August 2007 dropped and pierced support but closed above the...

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"I love gooooold, the look of it, the taste of it, the shmell of it, the texture..." I'm sure Goldmember would also love gold's seasonality right about now too! Gold has had an amazing run so far this year and it looks like its set to continue into October. I put together the closing high returns and closing low returns for the dates below! I hope it...