The_Unwind

The_Unwind

Just two hours "before" the 2 pm Wed Fed announcement on policy and interest rates very big money had started to sell US stocks.. The selling continued almost unabated for the remainder of the week, picking up heavy volume Friday afternoon, with S+P 500 Futures closing the week at a significant discount to cash. There were clear warnings that this was...

The_Unwind

Financial stocks have historically lead bull markets. Yet today, as the S+P 500 was making yet another all time closing high, on a 5 % jump in the Consumer Price Index the XLF Financial ETF made up of the largest capital banks in the US, was reversing sharply, and closing on it's lows today. Why ? Well the US 10 Year Bond, dropped another 4 Basis points to 1.44...

The_Unwind

In my last post, I warned you to be alert to an commodity type upside blowoff in stocks this summer. Like everything about this casino market in 2021 everything has been magnified, and happened all at once, beyond simple imagination to really understand. Unimaginable financial risk and returns,1000% gains, and more in me me stocks overnight, And the crowd wants...

The_Unwind

The United States stock market has all the characteristics of heating up big time this summer, and potential upside targets, at this point are impossible to predict. I base this opinion on the rapidly increasing speculative risk tone of the market, that does not feel like it's late in the game. In fact, it only appears it's just starting to kick off, with a...

The_Unwind

I would not be advising traders to short the market this week. This mornings strong upside triangle breakout in the S=P 500 confirms this. Historically, this coming week is seasonally very bullish and moves that have come around this holiday have been sharp to the upside, around the stars and stripes. The unprecedented recovery from the pandemic here in the...

The_Unwind

Here is my own definition of what makes a great trader. It is reprinted here for the entire TradingView viewing community to read. Most great traders and those who aspire to be great do not listen to anyone but themselves. They have extraordinary trader's instincts. They tune everything out, and are in their own world. They know the shot.They know their...

The_Unwind

The newly updated 30 Minute Chart Pattern of the S+P 500 defines the word "chop", Clearly you can see the bulls "double bottom", now in play, that held the recent retest of the intermediate low at SPX 4056. However, every time the bulls try to rally past 4185, they are really pushed back,by big money pattern resistance. If you follow the arrows that I've drawn...

The_Unwind

S+P 500 chart shown here continues to show that bulls are now trapped from the all time record rice high of 4238, to last Friday's retracement high of 4183. With todays close all the way down to 4127, it will now take a rally of over 58 S+P points, just to get back to the "trap zone" resistance of 4183, and they will need a rally of over 100 points to get back...

The_Unwind

The signs were there. There were warning signs all over the place. Yet they were ignored, traders were too bullish and the market kept going up throughout the entire month of April and then in early May. For 24 trading days, the market kept going up. However, it took just 3 trading days, in a magnitude of 8 to 1, for the market to give it all back. Many of the...

The_Unwind

Refer to the accompanying chart. You can clearly see the three pumps up near 4230,. and then a sharp rollover. The extremely bullish crowd today received some of their own medicine. Lead to the downside by the Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, especially Amazon,whose chart is downright scary, peaking on April 30, and falling over 10 % in just 7 days, the technical...

The_Unwind

This is Federal Reserve Commentary Released 5/6/21 "Should risk appetite decline from elevated levels, a broad range of asset prices could be vulnerable to large and sudden price decline, which could lead to broader stress to the financial system" This from the Federal Reserve's Bank Semiannual " Financial Stability Report" The report also directly comments...

The_Unwind

In place for weeks now, a reoccurring pattern of the Weekly Low in the S+P 500 has been occurring on Monday to start the trading week. The market then consolidates the low and then breaks out and rallies for the remainder of the week and closing at or near record high's on Friday's. Look back so far in 2021, and you can see the evidence in the Weekly Statistics...

The_Unwind

The S=P 500 has made yet another "blow off" record high this week, but in doing so it has put the technical structure of the pattern in an exceedingly dangerous position, with support weakening as price rises. Put another way, the risk in the market continues to rise, now reaching the breaking point. When this highly unusual resolves itself the breakdown will be...

The_Unwind

According to Bank Of America, more public money has been invested into the stock market, in the last five months, 569 Billion $, than had been invested previously (452 Billion) in the last 11 years ! since the start of the bull market in 2009. That is an extraordinary vote of confidence of public dollars into the stock market, as investors seek "yield "...

The_Unwind

The technical pattern of the S+P 500 shown here in a 15 minute Candlestick reflects pause, hesitation, and uncertainty. Choppy trading back and forth. Is the market building a top here, or is that a definite multi bottom base in front of you ? To me" any" market worrying before the month of April is " the set-up" for SPX 4000 First quarter earnings,starting in...

The_Unwind

As a trader risking my own $ in the markets for over40 years the most important decision I make every day is not when to buy, but rather when to sell. I'm the kind of trader who risk's" everything",on a simple trader's instinct. A gut, A look at my chart, and importantly a decision to act on impulse. It's an all or nothing approach of financial risk looking for...

The_Unwind

This past weeks bear breaking counter trend US stock market rally back up the totem pole was enough for even hard core big money bears to throw in the towel, and to more importantly "cry uncle". As noted in my last update, the stock market is taking strongly and usually reliable short term bearish technical patterns, and busting them to the upside. That's the...

The_Unwind

As mentioned in my last post, the S+P 500 in a unusual bearish megaphone pattern, a downward expanding pattern, assuring that price will gyrate sharply within the ever widening cone of descent. However strong the bear case might appear to be, the fact remain that the market has been turning" obviously bearish technical patterns, into sharp and unexpected...