elp
Long

SPX Upside Bias

TVC:SPX   S&P 500
211 8 9
4 months ago
Looking at the SPX             , it has an upside bias as long as it continues to make higher highs and higher lows. The current rally off the brexit lows and pullback from the august high has a similar look compared to the rally off the feb low to april high to the brexit low. Both periods seem to have pulled back 38.2% of the previous rally and looking at the X axis. The rally periods are similar in time to the pull back periods. September seems all about digesting the summer rally that resulted in new all time highs. Time and the X axis can make measured moves like price and the Y axis can.

Two places I would look to long the SPX             would be a break to the upside of the current triangle it has been in for most of september or a retest of september lows @ 2119.1 or the 38.2 @ 2116.6 I believe the SPX             has a target at 2248

Daily chart starting 09/27 there has been increased accumulation of the es inside the triangle it has been in for all of september
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The MACD has a positive look at the moment.
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Volume oscillator is similar to the feb and brexit lows with the volume accumulation percentage indicator (coded by Lazy Bear ) is indicating an upside bias. This looks like price wants to test ath´s or breakout to new ath´s.
I could be all wrong.
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AAII Sentiment is falling like one would want to see where the majority of traders get caught on the wrong side of the trade where they are forced to cover. AAII sentiment looks more like a bottom is forming over than a topping process.
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The Coppock Curve which was coded as a monthly indicator has given a buy the dips signal for the last three months.
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Now looking at the news in general. With Deutsche Bank ( DB             ) in the news where youtube and facebook             "economists" are literally saying DB             is Lehman Brothers and will cause market contagion, you have to wonder how much more DB             can go down after correcting 92% from year 2007 highs. It could go to zero and I am 100% percent wrong. This is why stops are used. I am not buying DB             , however if DB             continues to rally or hold TL support on a log chart the DAX             could rally which would be positive for US markets.
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The NDX looks like its still trying to complete a Butterfly pattern up at 4971.2
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If the NDX breaks 4971.2 there is a deep crab pattern it could try to make where the target would be 5265.6
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Good luck with your trading.
3 months ago
Comment: With the US Presidential elections next week, I would think the best position would be FLAT until the elections are over. Only trades I would consider would be intra-day trades (reduced size) where I would not even think about holding over night. I believe we could witness quick and sudden volatile moves with FOMC on Wednesday, NFP on Friday, the US Presidential elections the following Tuesday and Hillary Clinton´s FBI investigation where the news on Hillary will be random (black swanish). IMHO this is not a time to try and gamble by predicting price movement with four market moving news events. Let the news pass. After the US elections in November to May should provide plenty of trading opportunities.

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elp
ES ivhs
elp about ES1! 11 2 months ago
ChartArt
4 months ago
It is very interesting that your idea projects a peak around late January, early February 2017. Which is right around when I thought two months ago that this rally might end:

S&P 500 breakout rally to 2300-2350 until the year 2017
Reply
ChartArt ChartArt
4 months ago
... actually that idea for the top is three months old and I noticed that you drew a line onto October 31.


My newest bearish idea is one month old and has the final top around the last week of October:

Bubbles everywhere: Current risks to the US stock market rally



Which correlates with my more than one year old bearish turning point idea that the current rally ends in late October:

China crash, Greece almost out of cash - A bearish 2015 scenario
Reply
elp ChartArt
4 months ago
I believe this current time period, if price breaks to the upside, could rally into the end of October or right into the US Presidential elections. This would be similar to the Scottish vote for independence that was on September 18th 2014, the SPX topped the next day on the 19th of September 2014 where it experienced its first decent pullback of 9.8%. The spx rallied into brexit too, the spx was near high at brexit then had it´s first decent pullback of 6% from the June highs to brexit low. I believe history could repeat. It´s all bs at the moment. If price takes out September lows something else is going on.
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MindTrader
4 months ago
S&P 500
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elp MindTrader
4 months ago
I like to hold more to the extremes with patterns. The only two patterns I would look at, still have a similar theme to the downside as you have. 2108 would be a double bottom for me and the fib ratios are off a little for a bullish garley on the B and D points. The two that have good fib ratios on all points is a bullish bat or a bullish crab. However, I would favor the bullish bat or double bottom at the moment.
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elp elp
4 months ago
A few cash setups that are all bullish patterns.
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MindTrader elp
4 months ago
Yes very nice chart Thanks
Reply
elp
2 months ago
NDX /NQ possible triangle?
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