elp
Short

Sell Rallies

QUANDL:BCB/UDJIAD1   BCB/UDJIAD1
250 21 6
Most people only look at price and forget about time. When time and price meet, price can have a big reaction. Using fibonacci in time. Anchors, yr 1896 ATL to yr 1929             H, project fib ratios out in time, there seems to be a pattern from observation.

Years 1942, 1950, 1974 & 1982 these fib ratios showed price was at the end of a correction with the 38.2 being the deeper of the two corrections and the 61.8 being a -24% correction. Year 2007 the 0.382 was at the start of a correction just like the 61.8 is at the start of the current correction. A -24% correction would put the DOW at the monthly close high of year 2007 in the 13800´s

The correction could be deeper, i do not know. However, once the correction is over. If history repeats. Looking left of the chart. Price would have an upside bias.
Comment: With Yellens dovish statments yesterday on rate hikes, I am not comfortable recomending shorting the spx. If could just continue to drift higher. I do not know. If the dips continue to be bought, there are two possible upside targets Notes on chart
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Comment: es june contract could have a price target @ 2118.50 using continual anchors
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Here is a fractal I have been following for a while now. This is probably all bs where the markets diverge from this fractal which I am expecting them to do. notes on chart.
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@elp, Update on this please!
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elp PKA
@PKA, Looking at the previous two major bull markets (BM) 1932-1966 and 1975-2000 both BM made a low 116 months and 115 months in a double digit correction.

116 month low 1942
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115 month low 1984
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Current price where I believe price could trade to 25695 if price rallies into the EOY. After that target is hit, if price follows the previous BM, could see a double digit correction into EOY 2018 All bs of course, where I am probably 100% wrong. Picking tops and bottoms is impossible.
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Still looking at fractals after the EOY 2018 or 2019 low, if price follows the past two BM. Thinking we could witness a 100% rally.
1942 low rally
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1984 low rally
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Maybe the top is in? I do not know, but I believe the spx will trade 2500 before entering a correction.
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@elp, I agree. I actually think SPX could hit 2500 or 2690 before a correction. Could go as low as 2300 before 3000 imo. I'm generally bullish out towards the year 2030.
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elp PKA
@PKA,
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@elp, Question, why did you use 4.15 as a time extension? I typically use 1.0, 1.272, 1.618, 2.0, 2.618, 3.0, 3.618, 4.618 etc.
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elp PKA
@PKA, observation. I use fibs too, however the 1966/67 top BM end and the 2000 top BM end were close to 2.15 and 3.15 They are not extensions, but a measured move in time. Price can make 100% moves in time. Also notice PI can be another number time can follow. EG 3.14 31.4 & 314
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@elp, Interesting thank you.
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elp PKA
@PKA, Looking at Time and MM the gbp, it seems to make 20 + year moves. Currently, with price breaking 30 year lows at PI 31.4 years off the 1985 lows on brexit, It kind of hints the gbp could be in a over all bear market for the next 10 - 17 years. Rallies back up to 30 year support is a sell imho. Could be wrong.
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Don´t know if you follow T Theory, a simulated euro also hints the euro could experience another 14 years in an over all down trend, where the current rally is a bear market rally.
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@elp, What are your thoughts on crude? Eventually has to go up
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elp PKA
@PKA, Same with the dollar, I believe it put in a major sentiment bottom yr 2008. Everyone is still bearish the dollar. All the doom and gloomers are calling for the dollar to crash into a never ending pit. I believe the dollar is currently in a bull market correction. It could get deep, and that would be good to catch the majority on the wrong side of the trade.
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the current time period 2011 L - 2015 H was three weeks longer than the 1949 L - 1953 H. If the fractal continues this could suggest the current correction could last another three weeks ending in the week of February 15th. The low does not have to be a LL
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Price has reactions with fibonacci levels just as time has reactions with fibonacci time periods. From the October 2014 low to the May 2015 high price has been respecting this fibonacci time period draw. I do not know if price will continue to respect it, however I am expecting a time reaction in the third week of february on or around feb 18th. From observation i am noticing a alternating pattern on the time fibs, 0.272 was a low, 0.618 was a high, 0.786 was a low,
or (low, high, low) next, 1.272 was a high, 1.618 was a low, 1.786 was a high or (high, low, high) currently time is entering the 2.272 time period and am wonder if the time fib alternation will continue. Where the 2.272 would be a low (can be a higher low) 2.618 would be a high and the 2.782 would be a low or a (low, high, low). I do not know if this pattern will continue. However if price is rallying or pulling back at the 2.272 time fib on or around feb 18th I would look for a reaction with price where there would be high or low made, This all bs at the moment. notes on chart
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See: http://spiralcalendar.com/2016/01/whos-on-first/#more-9158
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elp dhExcel
Yes the USDJPY can have a tight correlation with the US indices. Although CL has one too. This is the most extreme negative correlation CL has had with the SPX since yr 2003. Looking left when the two are at this much of an extreme the snapback to a positive correlation can be just as extreme.
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Also with oil tanking it has dragged down the indies. It looks like oil is at a fib time period that is in confluence with two fib levels. The last time CL was in a similar period was year 2006 were oil found resistance and pulled back for the next 12 months before making a new high. Also looking at CL compared with the SPX they both from observation seem to have a positive correlation on a monthly chart. I am not implying the correction in oil or the spx is over. I just belive if CL can hold the 25-26 level as support, the spx could try to find support. Looking at oil in 2006 it tested resistance for three months. If oil does this again, oil could probe the lows set in january through march april, i do not know and this is all speculation, just pure bs. If the spx does make a lower low this year I am looking at two levels where the spx could find support. 1st is 1737 the feb lows in 2014 & 2nd 1549 yr 2007 monthly close high
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For evey bullish fractal there can usually be a bearish fractal to be found. Looking at year 2007-2008 price made a high then a higher high before crashing, while the COT report made a head and shoulders pattern. I thought the 2015 end of year rally could try to make a higher high similar to yr 2007 because the current COT report is making a H&S pattern just like yr 2007. I have noiticed indicators can make bullish and bearish price patterns that can show price direction. This is all bs at the moment. fractal with yr 2007-2008 crash
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elp elp
COT lack of commitment?
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See: https://twitter.com/spiralcal/status/681462508692107264
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elp dhExcel
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spx500 looks like its could trade up to 2100

since may highs price has rallied up to it and stopped at trendeline resistance.
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