Intel Corporation | INTC | Long at $44.26Entered Intel NASDAQ:INTC after-hours at $44.26. The US government is too heavily invested in this one to let it truely slide. The earnings / EPS projections show a likely major turnaround. Any dips are purely programmatic for entry (watch insiders and politicians . I may sound like a conspiracy theorist here, but a $8.9 billion investment from the US government is absolutely going to lead to major returns by 2028/2029. There is a major price gap a lot of people aren't seeing all the way back to the year 2000 between $71.38 and $73.44. That's my main target. And, like dot-com crash, it may go further until.... So, in the near-term, there could be weakness and a dip to retouch the historical average band ($30's - another entry). But my outlook is longer. And, given the need for chips and the government wanting a major return on their investment, I suspect this one is going to lead to a solid return.
Targets into 2029
$60.00 (+35.6%)
$73.00 (+64.9%)
Semis
Is Intel a Tech Stock or a Weapon?In 2026, Intel Corporation is going through a major transformation. It is moving away from being just a company that makes chips for personal computers and is becoming a critical partner for the U.S. military. The United States government has officially recognized Intel as a "National Champion," which means the company is now seen as essential for the country's safety and defense. This change is happening because the government wants to ensure it can make its own advanced computer chips at home without relying on foreign countries like Taiwan.
To support this new direction, Intel has secured a massive government contract called "SHIELD," which has a potential value of up to $151 billion. This is very important for traders to understand because it separates Intel’s success from the ups and downs of the regular consumer market. Furthermore, the U.S. government has taken a historic step by buying a 10% ownership stake in Intel. This acts as a safety net, signaling to the market that the government will not allow the company to fail because its factories are now considered as important as nuclear power plants.
The company is currently led by a new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, who is focused on strict discipline and fixing manufacturing problems. Under his leadership, Intel is building advanced technology for the "Golden Dome," a missile defense system designed to protect the country from high-speed threats. Intel is the only company in the U.S. capable of making the specific high-tech chips needed for this system, using its new "18A" manufacturing process to make equipment lighter and faster.
Looking at what will be, the stock price may still fluctuate (go up and down) in the short term as the new CEO fixes old problems and cuts costs. However, the long-term view shows that Intel is becoming a "hybrid" company that serves both regular customers and the Department of War. Because the government is paying for factory costs and providing steady contracts, Intel is becoming a much safer and more stable investment that is protected from economic inflation.
Ultra Clean Holdings | UCTT | Long at $27.32Like Ichor Holdings NASDAQ:ICHR , Ultra Clean Holdings NASDAQ:UCTT is a prominent developer and supplier of critical subsystems, high-purity components, and specialized services, primarily for the semiconductor industry. I believe this is a very undervalued area in the semiconductor industry.
Growth
Earnings per share expected to more than triple between 2025 and 2028 and revenue is expected to be on the rise.
Health
Debt-to-equity: 0.9x (healthy)
Quick Ratio: 1.9 (great)
Altman's Z Score: 2.7 (good)
Action
Unless the semiconductor market implodes (or the company), the future looks bright for NASDAQ:UCTT in the next 2-3 years. It may dip into the low $20's in the near-term to close a few price gaps, but with a float of 44 million, it may get interesting at some point soon. Thus, at $27.32, NASDAQ:UCTT is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2029
$35.00 (+64.7%)
$60.00 (+119.6%)
Ichor Holdings | ICHR | Long at $20.41Ichor Holdings NASDAQ:ICHR is a major supplier in the semiconductor industry, specifically focused on the semiconductor capital equipment sector rather than directly manufacturing chips themselves. I believe this is a very undervalued area in the semiconductor industry. The other major competitor is Ultra Clean Technologies NASDAQ:UCTT .
Insiders
Buying between $14 and $17 share.
Growth
Earnings per share expected to more than double between 2026 and 2028 and revenue on the rise.
Health
Debt-to-equity: 0.2x (healthy)
Quick Ratio: 1.3 (good)
Altman's Z Score: 2.8 (good)
Action
Unless the semiconductor market implodes (or the company), the future looks bright for NASDAQ:ICHR in the next 2-3 years. With a float of 32 million, it may get interesting at some point soon. Thus, at $20.41, NASDAQ:ICHR is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2029
$32.00 (+56.8%)
$42.00 (+105.8%)
NVTS: Uptrend from April lows may be complete Putting my late‑October NVTS update into a separate idea.
From the way the corrective structure off the October highs is developing, it increasingly looks like the entire advance from the April lows may be complete, with price likely having formed a mid‑term top. The ideal macro support zone to complete this full corrective cycle sits at 5.20–3.90.
In the near term, a move into the 6.97–5.70 area has a high probability of generating a bounce, but that bounce would most likely only create a larger‑degree lower high before the final leg down into macro support finishes the correction.
Chart:
Previously:
For my prior structure analysis from Aug–Oct, see the previous idea:
Direxion Semiconductor 3x Bull | SOXL | Long at $30.00So many semiconductor companies... which one to choose? Enter AMEX:SOXL - not for the faint of heart. Losses and gains triple compared to most semiconductor ETFs, so stay away if high-risk plays aren't your thing. The top three holdings are NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:AVGO , and NASDAQ:NVDA - two of which are at all-time highs...
I wouldn't be shocked if AMEX:SOXL enters the low $20's to test the base of my historical simple moving average area, but I don't think we are done hearing about AI and the semi demand. There are large gaps to fill above and below the current price and we are at the 50/50 stage (i.e. historical simple moving average zone) for a price move up or down.
My bet is up, especially with the new presidential administration. If politicians start dumping semis, I'm out. Thus, at $30.00 AMEX:SOXL is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $35
Target #2 = $40
Target #3 = $50
Target #4 = $60
Micron’s AI Pivot: A 2025 Strategic & Geopolitical AnalysisThe “AI Supercycle” has finally matured from a buzzword into a tangible balance sheet reality. As of mid-December 2025, Micron Technology (MU) stands at a critical inflection point. With the Federal Reserve lowering rates to 3.75% and the semiconductor industry grappling with an unprecedented divergence between enterprise boom and consumer stagnation, Micron has aggressively repositioned itself. The upcoming fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report on December 17 represents more than a financial update; it is a referendum on CEO Sanjay Mehrotra’s high-stakes gamble on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
Business Model Transformation: The Enterprise Pivot
Micron is executing one of the most radical structural pivots in its history. The decision to deprioritize, and in some regions effectively sunset, its consumer-facing Crucial brand by early 2026 signals a ruthless allocation of capital. Management has correctly identified that the consumer PC market is a low-margin drag. Instead, production capacity is being violently swung toward enterprise-grade DRAM and AI-centric storage. This moves Micron from a commodity volume player to a specialized, high-margin infrastructure partner for hyperscalers like Microsoft and AWS.
Technology & Innovation: The HBM Wars
Technological supremacy is now defined by the roadmap to HBM4. While SK Hynix initially led the HBM race, Micron’s aggressive rollout of HBM3E has closed the gap. The company’s 1-beta and upcoming 1-gamma nodes utilize extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography to deliver power efficiency metrics that rival Asian competitors. Patent analysis reveals a surge in filings related to 3D-stacking architecture and advanced packaging, confirming that Micron is building a defensive IP moat around its high-performance compute capabilities.
Geostrategy & Geopolitics: Navigating the Fracture
Micron operates on the fault line of the US-China chip war. The lingering effects of Beijing’s 2023 ban on Micron products have accelerated the company’s "China-Plus-One" strategy. In response, Micron has doubled down on domestic manufacturing, leveraging the US CHIPS Act to fund mega-fabs in New York and Idaho. This is not just expansion; it is geopolitical insurance. By embedding itself into the US national security apparatus, Micron mitigates the risk of losing Chinese market share while securing subsidized capital that lowers its long-term cost of production.
Macroeconomics: The Rate Cut Tailwind
The Federal Reserve’s cut to 3.75% this November provides a specific, quantifiable benefit to Micron. Semiconductor manufacturing is arguably the most capital-intensive industry on earth. Lower borrowing costs directly improve the Net Present Value (NPV) of Micron’s multi-billion dollar fab projects. Furthermore, a softer dollar environment boosts the competitiveness of US exports, providing a tailwind for Micron’s international revenue recognition in fiscal 2026.
Cybersecurity & Supply Chain Integrity
In an era of state-sponsored cyber espionage, hardware security is a premium feature. Micron has elevated its cybersecurity posture by securing ISO/SAE 21434 certification for automotive memory, a critical requirement for modern SDVs (Software-Defined Vehicles). This focus extends to the supply chain; rigorous "Zero Trust" protocols now govern raw material sourcing, addressing the vulnerabilities exposed by recent global logistics disruptions. This security-first branding allows Micron to charge a premium to defense and automotive clients who cannot afford compromised hardware.
Management & Leadership
Sanjay Mehrotra’s tenure has been defined by discipline. Unlike previous cycles where memory makers flooded the market, causing price crashes, current leadership has shown remarkable restraint in CapEx spending. The 2025 strategy focuses on "bit growth discipline"—matching supply strictly to demand. This oligopolistic behavior, shared tacitly by competitors, has successfully engineered a favorable pricing environment, driving gross margins back toward the 40%+ range.
Conclusion: The Verdict
Micron Technology in late 2025 is no longer just a cyclical memory stock; it is a derivative play on the AI infrastructure build-out. The risks—ranging from HBM yield issues to renewed geopolitical friction—are real. However, the company’s strategic withdrawal from low-margin consumer markets and successful capture of CHIPS Act incentives position it favorably. As investors look to December 17, the question is not if AI demand exists, but if Micron can manufacture fast enough to satisfy it.
GlobalFoundaries | GFS | Long $33.62GlobalFoundaries NASDAQ:GFS
Technical Analysis:
The price is currently trading below the historical mean (see lines on chart). Given the "newness" of this stock on the market (IPO in 2021), I would often avoid an entry here until more data are gathered to better understand if the downside trend is reversing. However, in an era where AI integration is the future of tech, the growth prospects of NASDAQ:GFS make it undervalued in the semiconductor space. The current fair value is near $20. The price may get there in the near-term. But sometimes future fundamentals outweigh technical analysis... sometimes... Time will tell.
Earnings and Revenue Growth
Forecasted revenue growth between 2025 ($6.75 billion) and 2028 ($8.88 billion): 31.6%
Forecasted earnings-per-share growth between 2025 ($1.62) and 2028 ($3.12): 92.6%
www.tradingview.com
Health
Debt-to-Equity: 0.15x (low, healthy)
Altman's Z-Score/Bankruptcy Risk: 2.48 (low risk)
Insiders
Silent...
openinsider.com
Action
Due to the growth prospects and likely high demand of semiconductors, NASDAQ:GFS is in a personal buy zone at $33.62. This entry goes against some technical analysis guidance (more downside may be inevitable this year), but the *long-term* upside is more than likely there *if* earnings and revenue growth projections are accurate beyond 2025.
Targets in 2028
$39.00 (+16.0%)
$50.00 (+48.7%)
Applied Materials | AMAT | Long at $169.75Republican Ashley Moody recently dropped $200k-$500k on Applied Materials $NASDAQ:AMAT. The semiconductor boom may not be over...
Price-to-earnings: 21.68x (great in comparison to others...)
Debt-to-equity: 0.34x (low)
Cash flow: $10.4 billion (FY2024)
Insiders awarded options recently
Unless NASDAQ:NVDA brings the market down, NASDAQ:AMAT is in a personal buy zone at $169.75. While the price may dip in the near-term to the $140s, bullish until the semi boom dies...
Targets:
$195.00
$215.00
$240.00
Nvidia Just Under Major SupportNvidia seems to have been pulled down by the Dow just like Apple as both are just under major support. I'm sorry for my previous Nvidia chart that drew support near 140, I recognize where I screwed up, but this chart should be good. Fortunately actual 117 support wasn't that far below and my NVDA isn't too in the red.
NVDA has the lowest revenue multiple in years right now. I know it's well off it's long term trend line, but it's growth rate is unlike anything it's ever been so expecting a steeper trend line to appear makes a lot of sense. Eventually I would imagine we'll get back to that trend line, but not anytime soon.
The Dow hitting major support should finally lift NVDA and the others that have been dragged down like AAPL and AMZN.
Good luck!
Intel | INTC | Long at $20This is going to be purely about technical analysis since Intel NASDAQ:INTC has a 90x P/E and has not proven themselves to be a viable challenger in the semiconductor market (yet...). Bad news could continue to destroy this ticker, but without that news, there could be some recovery in the near term.
The NASDAQ:INTC chart is in an overall downward trend. However, based on a few of my selected simply moving averages (SMAs), there is some predictability around support/resistance areas. Some of my favorite setups are a nice bounce on the lowest (green) selected SMA, occurring in October 2022 for a "rip then dip" to the second lowest (blue) - which it hit now. Often, but not always (I can't stress this enough), this green to blue SMA bounce represents a very strong support area during a downward trend. The other move is a further dip to retest the green SMA, but I suspect that would come with tremendously bad news for Intel... let's hope not, though.
Currently, NASDAQ:INTC is in a personal buy zone at $20.00 based on technical analysis only. A stop has been set if it drops below the blue SMA (which is may further test).
Target #1 = $28.00
Target #2 = $32.00
Target #3 = $60.00+ (very long-term, but high-risk unless fundamentals change)
Monolithic Power | MPWR | Long at $580.00Monolithic Power $NASDAQ:MPWR. If the semiconductor market continues to get attention in connection with AI, there may be a bounce here near $580.00 as NASDAQ:MPWR enters my historical simple moving average area. However, a further dip into the high $400s wouldn't surprise me (tax harvesting season is in session) and doesn't change the thesis as long as the overall trend continues to stay positive. While NASDAQ:MPWR is a strong company with growth predictions on the horizon, it has a 65x P/E, 46x price-to-cash flow, lots of insider selling, and some near-term concern if the economy shows weakness. From a technical analysis perspective, though, it's in an area of opportunity as long as semis stay a "hot" investment. Thus, at $580.00, NASDAQ:MPWR is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $690.00
Target #2 = $745.00
Target #3 = $825.00
Target #4 = $908.00
NVIDIA -- Major Resistance // Confluence of 3 FactorsHello Traders!
WOW... This chart is quite incredible I must say.
It's amazing how price is currently at an exact point where 2 major trendlines converge which also nearly coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Price closed almost to the penny just above the major trendline connecting the prior highs. It will be very interesting to see what price does over the next few days.
What Does These Converging Trendlines Mean?: Think of a trendline like a wall... Depending on how "strong" the trendline is, this wall could be made from wood all the way through to vibranium straight from Captain Americas shield! These two trendlines converging would likely resemble a steel wall and would be extremely hard to penetrate. (Although there are no gurantees in trading)
What To Watch For: I will be watching to see if price can both break and confirm above both resistance trendlines. It will take MEGA buying pressure to accomplish this and would likely mean continuation to the upside. If price cannot break and confirm above then we will likely see a large retrace to support.
Thanks everyone and best of luck on your trading journeys!
$SMH vs $HACK: Recent good correlation with breakout potentialMany market watchers will say that Semis are the most important stocks in the market. Semis are great from a market direction perspective. They are the best to indicate a downturn and the fastest to recover during a bull run. In this blog we have appreciated the relative resilience of the Cybersecurity stocks during the recent bear market. The cybersecurity ETF AMEX:HACK fell only 25 % during the 2025 bear market. NASDAQ:SMH fell almost 40% and NASDAQ:SMH / AMEX:HACK fell 35% which indicated the relative underperformance of Semis vs Cybersecurity in April. But form the lows of ‘Liberation Day’ NASDAQ:SMH and AMEX:HACK are trading with perfect correlation. But the question comes will NASDAQ:SMH claim the leadership and outperform AMEX:HACK if this bull market continues.
In the last 2024 Bull market NASDAQ:SMH significantly outperformed the $HACK. We are probably in the early days of this breakout outperformance. So. In my opinion in the near term NASDAQ:SMH outperforms $HACK. The ratio is at 96%. The ratio might touch the previous cycle highs of 160% if the momentum continues.
Verdict: NASDAQ:SMH outperforms AMEX:HACK in near term. Buy NASDAQ:SMH ; Hold AMEX:HACK
Nicest setup I’ve seen in a while-Not complicated; why make it?Tesla with perfect technically sound pattern
Five or six things coming together, including a perfect tag of the breakout line, a perfect tag of the long-term uptrend line a Bollinger band crash perfect tag of the Fibonacci .62
It’s like a perfect set up
Not very complicated; why make it complicated?






















