Breakdown is anything south of 273.89
Question is what saves it - historically 14SMA on weekly has captured it but this has broken down in May 2021. Instead the 30SMA on weekly have been the saver so that would be the clincher.
If I was a shorting man - 273.89 is the trigger- then down to 14SMA at 279.57, then 269.72 as next resistance and then finally 30SMA at...
Currently in the Chop zone and likely to continue
300 for the bears to take over, 310 for Bulls to take over. Bias is to the downside with supply issues clogging up the system
SMH. Potential for a wave 5 continuation. Possible reversal points marked using two methods. 1st - Extended 3rd wave tells me that wave 5 may have a similar run to wave 1. 2nd- Distance travelled through waves 1-3 multiplied by .618. That's the proper way to use the fib on an impulse wave. You don't just measure out directional pulls and expect it to bounce...
Chip sector led to a massive rally in the NDX...
The biggest holdings in this sector are
1.NVDA
2.ASML
3.AMD.
4.TSM
5.Qcom
6.INTC
With the exception of INTC all these stocks are overbought on every indicator.
A pullback is to be expected from this sector but I would like to see if this channel breakout is the real or Faux
You have to laugh, as Retail was piling into the NQ/MNQ @ 71, 75, 82, 88, 90, 92, 95 on the SELL.
The BOTS simply waited for the 3:59 arrival to run all those stops at 410 - 420.
Usually, they wait until 1 second after 4 and run it vertical @ until 4:02 PM EST.
By 4:05 PM EST - a new high off the Ledge @ 15428.50.
Ya see, all the Baby Seals were thinking -...
Yesterday's break below ~$267.70 puts SMH on track to move lower towards the other side of the lookback periods (ORANGE & RED dotted line) at ~$255-$249.
Only a move back above $267.70 puts the bulls in control.
Given the way the S&P's are trading and the negative tape at large, I favor shorts in SMH.
$SMH $SOXL are printing daily 9. I judge these 9s as reversal 9. The QQQ is showing strength on this reversal. Some good individual semi plays to look at: $LASR $MRVL
SMH has been a clear leadership area in the market. But the ETF is flirting with a technical breakout failure on a large timeframe.
Of such things big tops are potentially made. This gives the broad market a yellow-light status.
NASDAQ
