Melting up to 231 here; at that point we will either breakout or begin another correction.
So how do you use this sector info to make a trade? First you identify the biggest stocks in the sector (NVDA, TSM).
Secondly , Ask yourself this, "if SMH can move to 231 what will that bullish move do for NVDA"?
Looking at NVDA stock , I see a gap close at 177 that...
If we take a step back and plot the weekly chart of SMH, there lies a possibility that we may have a ABC pattern playing out in the weeks/months to come.
We are not out of the descending channel yet (a bullish sign) and it could also notch another level down as well (can't rule this out though I think is quite remote), so those who have yet to go LONG can wait...
Comments: My broad market positions are getting a little crowded and busy, so deploying some buying power into some sector ETF's, targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
30-day isn't bad here at 36.3%, but this isn't exactly as weak as it has been, so it's possible that a better entry could be had. Because of that, I'll...
Comments: Adding a smidge to my SMH position with two rungs out in February and March, targeting the strikes paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
February 17th 164: 1.65 credit
March 17th 154: 1.54 credit
VOLUME FLOW INDEX:
Both $SPY (broader market) and $SMH (semi-conductor industry) are currently in a neutral trend as measured by their 13 Day EMA envelope (top box). Both are also residing in similar places within their longer term downward trends. It is only when we take a look at volume as measured by the Volume Flow Index (VFI) that we can uncover some...
semiconductors, tech, and the market could make a technical bull case for itself. im not ruling out the shot at a big comeback in 2023. if we turn a sellsided equillibrium to a breakout this is what a weekly reverse head and sgoulders could look like.
If you have been anticipating a resumption in the October rally, this may be the trigger. The SMH/SOX is the (I believe) the last of the major indicies to still have a gap left unfilled. If it closes today (or this week), then maybe we can get going to the upside. Some resource stocks have already started their ascent (GDX, SILJ, UUUU, UEC, NXE, etc.)
This is an intriguing swing trade bounce level if it hits within the next few trading days. To have 3 factors at one price level is rare and ups the probabilities of a bounce. Not a long term level, just a technical bounce level.
Note: This is not financial advice.
Also a Head and Shoulders pattern with a "wide" head.
Bad tops come in all different shapes and sizes and is why I just call them "ugly tops" sometimes.
The similarity between top patterns is price hits a certain level and can NOT break the high.
Rectangles are easy to measure as it will most often break up or down the width of that rectangle and you need only...
During this Semiconductor ETF's rise to the top, price retested the high 220s and low 230s zone multiple times. This price range acted as a zone of support (marked by the green box). Since august of 2022, SMH price action has struggled to rise above this zone, turning this zone into resistance (marked by the red box).
Additionally, SMH's downfall (beginning...
SMH up 33% in 21 trading days, and 14% in the last 2 days. SMH has not come back to its downtrend line with lots of air and gaps to fill below. AMD and NVDA up more than the index itself during the same time. As of the close semis are down just under 31% on the year. Semiconductor bear markets are much deeper and longer. Looks like the next leg down may be...
Wed- rejected at resistance
Thursday- Gap down to fib support
Friday - Gapped back up to resistance today and got rejected
Its coming down too, they (MM) are just using a sector to prop things up today. Once we break back below 181, things will flush quickly.
VanEck ETF which “tracking /invest” on 25 global major semiconductors stocks. Probably found its “base” @ around 148.90 - P/s. Probably the “next recession” might be caused by “geopolitical tensions” cause by 2 big brothers..A kinds of “wars e.g chips war, trade war, or “actual war”....” Probably an “Imposed /sanctioned by” a “freedom democracy/free trade”...
Hey all, if you were to look at my portfolio right now, you'd probably be surprised at how much my allocation is shifted towards semiconductor names like NVDA, SMH, AMD, AMAT; I look at all these charts and see nothing except for upside in the near-term. Names are all overdue a significant bounce and are basing as I write this post. In my eyes, it's a matter of...
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