hi traders,
The price is clearly in a symmetric triangle. Depends on which sloping it will break, it will then move upwards or downwards.
The long position can be taken if the price breaks to the upside. Target for long is 264.64$.
On another hand, short position can be taken if the price breaks down, with target 184.38$.
... for a 192.24 debit.
Comments: Opened this in late Friday's session as it floated to the top of my IV screener with IVR/IV at 106/39.
Sold the -75 delta call against 100 delta of long stock, with a resulting cost basis of 192.24/share. This is to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of call side IV skew while having "built-in" position defense...
... for a 2.01 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 75.1/35.1. Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the semiconductor ETF.
I may look to ladder out at intervals if premium remains decent.
Looking at the holdings , I will need less bullets to buy into these individual companies especially I had missed BIG TIME on Nvidia.
This war on semiconductor chips will make these companies that are manufacturing them very much valuable down the road. China is squeeze and is forced to build on its own, which will takes time but eventually , I expect China to...
SMH has gone on a wonderful tear the last year and has recently showing signs that it is way overbought and due for a correction.
From a 1W period we see that SMH has broken above year long upward trend.
This is a first for SMH to do over the last year
The ETF has gone through some notable contractions like from Aug - Oct of 2023. This occured without...
If hype continues to grow for AI and companies continue to increase spending on AI chips then semiconductors can break out of longer trend. Otherwise, the longer trend might see soon see a short term peak or even a 50% decline for SMH before going up to new highs.
After a nice +60% Run from November, a correction is expected, as shown by the Head and Shoulders Pattern.
This shows a possible -10% correction.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment decisions.
If you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
SMH just hit a Golden Genesis fib at $209.43.
That fib is reinforced by a Covid Stimulus fib.
This is a major landmark in this ETF's history.
$ 209.43 - 212.89 is the immediate resistance.
$ 236.36 - 238.96 is the next major resistance.
$ 191.21 - 191.90 below is the first good support.
It is PROBABLE that we orbit this zone for a while.
It is POSSIBLE that we...
Bearish Engulfing, breakaway Gap, trendline break + retest.
assumption: Fib# Ext. to 3.618 ( 238 ), retracement to 1.618 (182)
Short 240
Stop 225
Target 185
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
... for a 2.07 credit.
Comments: 30-day IV at 27.8%. (Higher would be better, but you can't have everything).
Collecting 1/3rd of the width of the wings in credit. 2.07 credit on BPE of 3.93; 52.7% ROC at max; 26.3% at 50% max.
As usual, will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test. This is probably my last trade in the March...
There are a number of trends and fibs that are showing SMH could be $350 by December of 2025. Of course, the smaller channel intersects with top of the larger channel right around that time, which would be likely to see a significant pullback.
Thoughts? Questions? Let me know and boost if you like this idea!
SMH and AMD are showing signs of continuing their run here and we believe there could be a trade made here for a move off this handle. Prominent outperformance by both and our belief at the moment is that the Nasdaq may help out.
... for a 172.42 debit.
Comments: While I'm waiting for a July contract to open up in broad market instruments (IWM, QQQ, SPY), shopping around the ETF space for premium. Relative to broad market, SMH IV isn't horrible (the 30-day is currently at 29.3%). Selling the -75 delta call against long stock, to emulate a 25 delta short put and to take advantage of...
If we take a step back and plot the weekly chart of SMH, there lies a possibility that we may have a ABC pattern playing out in the weeks/months to come.
We are not out of the descending channel yet (a bullish sign) and it could also notch another level down as well (can't rule this out though I think is quite remote), so those who have yet to go LONG can wait...
Not the best spot to try & get long semi's imo. NVDA reports tonight. I'm playing it short via SOXS. This way I won't get burned if NVDA doesn't fall hard & could possibly get a chance to add if NVDA goes up a little. Ultimately looking for SMH to test VWAP from October lows around $172.
This is a very long-term view of SMH. You can see the FIB that is in play which is anchored at $41 in December of 2018. We ran up all the way to just about $160 in December of 2021. We had a hard pullback to $84 and did a fast turn around, again to $160, in July of 2023.
We retraced almost perfectly to the 50% of that move to $136 and we are now in the uptrend...
