SHORT BITCOIN – THE TRAP IS BELOW, NOT ABOVE!Traders,
From the current levels around $112.8K–$113K, I believe Bitcoin is setting up for another leg down into the $104K region.
Why? Because at current levels we already have multiple Anchored VWAPs (AVWAPs) lining up from different swing high → low auctions, which makes this area heavy resistance.
That means the probability of retracing higher is limited, and instead, the market is more likely to drop into $104K — where there’s significant unfinished business — before a proper bounce can occur.
🔮 Hypothesis
From current levels ($112.8K–$113K), price will reject and move down toward $104K.
Retracement higher than $113K is unlikely given AVWAP confluence + resistance stack.
The $104K region will act as a bounce zone, potentially with a Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) wick.
📊 Data & Confluence
🔻 Why $104K Is a Magnet
HTF Point of Control (POC): The high-volume node where markets naturally seek equilibrium.
HTF AVWAP: Anchored VWAP from major pivots aligns here, marking fair value.
4H TPO Single Prints + Fib Retracements (0.75–0.786): Gaps in auction structure converge with key Fibonacci levels.
CME Gap: The $104K CME RTH gap still needs filling — markets often return here for balance.
Sept 1st Low (Weekly TPO): Poor excess signals unfinished auction business, pulling price back down.
🔼 Why Current Levels Won’t Hold
Clustered AVWAPs (different swing high → low auctions): Acting as strong dynamic resistance.
Multiple POCs at current zone: Volume saturation suggests exhaustion.
Fibonacci confluence + harmonic pattern: Pointing to lower continuation.
💵 Macro Flows
USDT Dominance (USDT.D): Breaking higher → capital shifting to stablecoins → bearish BTC.
Aggregated CVD: Spot CVD drifting slightly higher, but futures CVD flat with no OI expansion.
→ No real demand behind the move.
📌 My Take
Bitcoin is most likely to:
Reject from current AVWAP resistance ($112.8K–$113K).
Drop into $104K, clearing imbalances and luring in shorts below the 0.786 fib.
Trigger a wick/squeeze move up (Swing Failure Pattern) to trap those late shorters.
⚠️ If $104K fails to hold, next target is the imbalance zone around $98.5K.
✅ Conclusion
The market is loaded with resistance at current levels. Until that’s broken with conviction, the path of least resistance is down into $104K.
That’s where the real battle will be.
Trade safe, manage risk, and don’t get trapped on the wrong side of the wick.
