THE MOST TRADED CURRENCIES IN THE WORLDHello everyone!
Today we will touch upon an interesting and important topic of the forex market.
There are enough opportunities in the world to trade currencies of all countries, but most of the trade volume is occupied by the main ones.
Let's figure out which currencies are traded by traders more than others.
US Dollar
The most important currency on the planet is the US Dollar.
There is nowhere without it: most of the operations on the market take place through the American dollar.
In addition, the United States is currently the largest economy on the planet. A huge part of world trade is concentrated in the USA or occurs through the USA.
The dollar itself is the reserve currency in the world, central and commercial banks hold large reserves of dollars in their accounts to make international transactions.
Yes, Gold, Copper, Oil and much more are valued in dollars.
Wherever you look, there is a dollar everywhere and everyone uses it.
Because of these factors, the dollar is No. 1 in terms of volumes with an average daily volume of 2.9 trillion US dollars.
Euro
The second largest trading currency in the world.
The main reason is the scale of the economies of the countries that are part of the eurozone.
Currently, the eurozone unites 20 countries.
Countries such as Germany, France, Italy have quite large economies, in total, together with other European countries, the euro accounts for 20% of world reserves.
The average daily volume is almost 1.1 trillion US dollars
Japanese Yen
Over the past decades, the Asian region has developed strongly.
Countries improved and increased production, which eventually led to the fact that Asian countries are now of great importance in the global economy.
Japan's manufacturing sector has a strong influence on the world and on the yen.
Therefore, when export figures increase, the yen rises.
The Japanese yen currently ranks third in terms of trading volumes in the world, with an average daily volume of 554 billion US dollars.
Since China is a key competitor of Japan in the industrial goods market, the weakening of the Chinese yuan has a detrimental effect on the yen, because then the export of Chinese goods will become more attractive.
In addition to China, the yen is also affected by the price of oil, since Japan is a major importer of this raw material.
Pound Sterling
The official currency of the United Kingdom and its Territories is the Pound sterling.
The economy of the Kingdom is of great importance for the entire world economy, since England is one of the main financial centers of the world.
In terms of volume, the pound sterling ranks fourth in the world with an average daily volume of almost 422 billion US dollars.
The share of this currency accounts for about 4.5% of world reserves.
The main indicator of the strength or weakness of the currency is the UK.
The monetary policy of the Bank of England, the GDP of England has a strong influence on the currency.
The exit of England from the European Union also had a strong impact.
It is the Pound Sterling that closes the four largest volumes of the planet.
Then there are such currencies as the Australian dollar, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Chinese Yuan.
All of them in total, of course, lose to the big four listed above, but these currencies also have sufficient volume, which makes it possible to trade pairs with these currencies quite profitably.
Volatility
Given the volume of a particular currency in the global economy, we can understand which currency pair will have greater volatility and which will not.
If you are a trader who wants to make a profit quickly, then the EURUSD pair is suitable for you – the two largest economies in the world.
Next comes – USDJPY. The economies of these countries are in first and third place, respectively, which means greater volatility.
If you need something in between, then you should pay attention to such currencies as – AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD. These currencies are linked to the first economy of the world, which will give sufficient volatility, while the second currency in these pairs does not have a huge volume, so price movements will not be so dangerous for a conservative trader.
You can also pay attention to pairs where countries with a smaller global volume are involved. Movement in these pairs will be slow and sometimes even boring, but definitely very safe.
Conclusion
Knowing which currency is strong on the world stage and which is not is very important for choosing a pair for trading.
Knowing what affects a particular currency helps to understand the future price movement.
Professional traders understand these issues and choose currency pairs suitable for their style.
Beginners trade everything in a row.
Do not be lazy to study and then the profit will come to you.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Signals
📈 What Are the 10 Fatal Mistakes Traders Make 📉Trading is exciting. Trading is hard. Trading is extremely hard. Some say that it takes more than 10,000 hours to master. Others believe that trading is the way to quick riches. They might be both wrong. It is important to know that no matter how experienced you are, mistakes will be part of the trading process. That’s why you should be prepared to expect them and if possible not make them. Easier said than done you would say and you will be completely right. That is why I have compiled a list of trading mistakes that you should be trying to avoid. Real-life trading will show you how “easy” that could be.
1) Trading without having a predefined trading plan
The first fatal trading mistake that traders make is trading with no plan. Having a written predefined trading plan will help you for two reasons. Trading depends on several aspects, which include the situation in the markets around the world, the status of overseas markets, the status of index futures such as Nasdaq 100 exchange-traded funds. Considering index futures is a wise option for evaluating the overall market conditions.
Make a to-do list and build a habit of researching the market before calling your shots. This will not only keep you from taking unnecessary risks, but it will also minimize your chances of losing money.
2) Over-leveraging
Over-leveraging is the second mistake of “what are the 10 fatal mistakes traders make”. Over-leveraging is a two-edged sword. In a winning streak, it could be your best friend, but when the trend changes, it becomes the greatest enemy. Recent talks about banning leverage higher than 1:50 for experienced and 1:25 for new traders in the UK have been a result of a lot of traders losing their money too fast. Whether it will happen next year or not is a matter of time for us to see. This is good news for most inexperienced traders because it will somehow limit their exposure. It will allow them to follow their money management rules easier. For greedier and more impatient traders, this is terrible news. Fortunately, this might lead to a better result in their performance in the long term, as well.
Over-leveraging is a dangerous way to believe you can make more money quicker. A lot of traders are misled into this way of thinking and end up losing all their money in a short period of time. Some brokers are offering insane amounts of leverage (like 1:2000) that can lead to nothing more than oblivion. Therefore, one needs to be extremely careful when selecting those levels and the brokers that represent them. That’s why diversification among different brokers is probably the best strategy.
3) Staying glued to the screen
a) Set entry rules
Computer systems are more effective for the purpose of trading because they don’t have feelings about the things that go into the trading environment and they are neither emotionally attached to the factors that are in one way or the other related to trading. Moreover, computers are capable of doing more at a time as compared to mechanical traders. This is one of the several reasons that more than 50% of all trades that occur on the New York Stock Exchange are computer-program generated.
A typical entry rule could be put in a sentence like this: “If signal A fires and there is a minimum target at least three times as great as my stop loss and we are at support, then buy X contracts or shares here.” Computers are more rational when it comes to taking quick decisions following a set of rules. No matter how experienced traders are, sometimes they tend to be hesitating in taking a decision no matter what their rules state.
b) Set exit rules
Normally, traders put 90% of their efforts into looking for buy signals, but they never pay attention to when to exit. At times, it is difficult to close a losing trade, but it is definitely wiser to take a small loss and continue looking for a new opportunity.
Professional traders lose a lot of trades each day, but they manage their money and limit their losses, which leads to a profitable trading statement for them.
Prior to entering a trade, you should be aware of your exits. There are at least two for every trade. First, where is your stop loss if the trade goes against you? This level must be written down. Mental stops don’t count. The second level is your profit target. Once you reach there, sell a portion of your trade and you can move your stop loss on the rest of your position to break even if you wish. As discussed above, never risk more than a set percentage of your portfolio on any trade.
4) Trying to get even or being too impatient
What are the 10 fatal mistakes traders make? Rule number 4 is patience. Patience in FOREX trading eventually pays off as it allows you to sit back a bit and wait for the right trading setup. Most traders are too eager to jump in and trade whenever any opportunity arises. This is probably due to our human nature and the eagerness to make a “quick buck”. But if there is one thing that ensures a high probability of winning, it is having the patience to grasp all the necessary information before you trade. This apparently will take time as there are many factors involved in it, such as the forming of trends, trend corrections, highs, and lows. Impatience to look at these matters could result in loss of money. It could be helpful sometimes to take a break and allow oneself to have the time to look at the bigger picture, instead of focusing too much on one aspect. Remember that a single transaction might resonate in a series of future losses if executed at the wrong moment. It takes time and patience to wait for the market correction before you commit to a trade.
BUT IT TAKES TIME…Some traders fail to realize that being successful will take time. They often fall prey to their own impatience in the hope of earning fast money. It could be a rough environment, and charts might be hard to read, so it is wise at times to step back in order to avoid costly mistakes. Don’t rush things out, or try to enter a trade at all costs by just following your gut. The market could be quite tricky and often does send out the wrong signals. Wait patiently for the best opportunities to align themselves and then act mercilessly.
5) Ignoring the trend
“The trend is my friend“- another cliche sentence, which has helped me stay on the right side of the market for as long as I am a trader. If you think about trading the way I do, it could be a boring business, but at least one that makes money. I am not really interested in quick returns. I am not interested in penny stocks. I am not interested in the most popular trades that everyone is talking about. I like to do my own analysis. The more boring a trade looks, the better for me the trade is. Always consider the trend before placing the trade!
6) Having a bullish/bearish bias
Folk wisdom says that if you throw a frog in boiling water, it will promptly jump out of it. But if you put the frog in lukewarm water and then slowly heat the water, by the time the frog realizes that the water has become boiling, it will already be too late. Studies of decision-making have proven that people are more likely to accept ethical lapses when they occur in several small steps than when they occur in one large leap. This statement also explains nicely the unfortunate process of unprofitable trading. Once you are in a losing position, you don’t realize if it slowly accumulates into a big loss. You have your own bias and it might lead you into obscurity. That is why one of the most important elements of successful trading is objectivity. It is also one of the hardest elements of mastering the field of trading. Inattentional blindness is definitely not helpful to human psychology and when it comes to trading, it could be detrimental.
7) Little preparation or lack of strategy
Make sure that you close any unnecessary programs on your computer and reboot your computer before the day begins, this refreshes the cache and resident memory (RAM). Several trading systems allow you to set up the environment according to your needs, set it up in a way that allows for minimal distractions and helps you keep an eye on each in and out, alongside.
Keep in mind that a flaw in the trading system can be costly. Make sure you have valid proof that your trading strategy does return positive results on a consistent basis. Do not rush into trading before that.
8) Being too emotional
Trading the markets is like stepping into a battlefield- you need to be emotionally and psychologically prepared before entering the field, otherwise, you are stepping into a war zone without a sword in your hand. Make sure you have checked three things before you start trading: 1)you are calm, 2)you had a good night’s sleep, and 3) you are up for a challenge.
Having a positive attitude towards trading is extremely crucial. If you are angry, preoccupied, or hung over then you are at a bigger risk of losing. Make sure you are completely relaxed before you step into the market, even if you have to take yoga classes, it is totally worth it.
9) Lacking money management skills
Rule number 9 of the “What are the 10 fatal mistakes traders make” list is money management. Risking between 1% to 2% of your portfolio on a single trade is the best way to go. Even if you lose while betting on that amount you will be capable enough to trade some other day and make up for your losses.
The amount of risk a trader can take is the amount he thinks he will be able to get back the next day. It is a wise option to start with a smaller amount and slowly and gradually increase the percentage. You can come back to point number 2 “Over-leveraging” and read it again. Having the right money management skills is probably one of the most important traits of a profitable trader. And of course- it is one of the most common mistakes among the losing traders.
10) Lack of record keeping
Keeping records is key to being successful at trading. If you win a trade, you should note down the efforts and the reasons that pulled you towards the trade. If you lose a trade, you should keep a record of why that happened in order to avoid making the same mistakes in the future.
Note down details such as targets, the exit, and entry of each trade, the time, support and resistance levels, daily opening range, market open and close for the day, and record comments about why you made the trade and lessons learned.
You should save your trading records so that you can go back and analyze the profit or loss for a particular system, draw-downs (which are amounts lost per trade using a trading system), average time per trade (in order to calculate trade efficiency), and other important factors. Remember, this is a serious business and you are the accountant.
CONCLUSION:
What are the 10 fatal mistakes traders make?? Successful paper trading does not ensure that you will have success when you start trading real money and emotions come into play. Successful paper trading does give the trader confidence that the system they are going to use actually works. Deciding on a system is less important than gaining enough skills so that you are able to make trades without second-guessing or doubting the decision.
There is no way to guarantee that a trade will return profits. This is the actual beauty of trading and being consistent is based on a trader’s skill set and his/her eagerness to improve. Keep in mind winning without losing does not exist in the world of trading. Professional traders know that the odds are in their favor before entering a trade. It is a continuous process of making more profits and cutting down losses which might not ensure a win every time, but it wins the war. Traders or investors who don’t believe in this adage are more viable to making losses.
Traders who win consistently treat trading as a business. While it’s not a guarantee that you will make money, having a plan is crucial if you want to become consistently successful and survive in the trading battle.
BUYERS vs. SELLERSHello everyone!
Who are the stronger sellers or buyers right now?
The one who finds out the answer will be able to earn a lot.
Over time, one side weakens, the other gains strength.
It is not easy to catch this moment, but there are several methods for determining a possible change in the dominant force in the market.
Japanese candles, namely their bodies, can help us with this.
The body shows how strong or weak one or the other side is.
The body shows whether buyers are losing strength and whether sellers are gaining strength.
Are buyers or sellers strong?
By looking at a particular candle and its body, we can understand what was happening in the market in a given period of time.
If we see a full-bodied green candle that has no shadows, then we can say with confidence that buyers are winning.
The point is that buyers were able to push the price up after the opening and until the closing, which sellers could not resist.
On the other hand, if we see a full-bodied candle of red color, we can say that the sellers won.
Without much resistance, sellers pushed the price down from the beginning to the end and were able to close at the very bottom of the candle.
Full–bodied candles speak of enormous strength, they can appear confirming the trend or starting it, in any case - this is a strong sign.
Still strong, but…
If you see a green candle with a long body and small, short shadows on the chart, then you can say that buyers dominate the market.
But what are these shadows?
These shadows remind us that sellers, although losing heavily, still did not give up.
It's the same with candles that have long red bodies and short shadows.
Sellers are strong, but buyers are still here, as the shadows remind us.
Seeing such shadows, you should not be afraid and open positions in the opposite direction, no.
It's just a reminder.
The fight is getting harder.
A candle with a small green body, which is located at the top, shows us that buyers have taken over the market, but the victory turned out to be very difficult.
The long shadow under the body indicates to us the rage of the sellers, who dragged the price down for a very long time, but still lost in the end.
Maybe it was the last impulse of buyers?
This fight was almost on an equal footing, but the victory remained with the buyers.
In such situations, you can ask the question - Will there be a U-turn?
Red body on top, with a long shadow.
The sellers won here, but the buyers fought with dignity.
Depending on the context, this figure can serve as a signal of an imminent reversal.
After all, sellers were able to push the price very deep, but buyers did not give them a foothold there.
The last push?
The short body is green, and above it is a long shadow.
The victory remained with the buyers, but was it easy? No.
Perhaps it was the last rush of buyers, after which there is no strength to fight anymore.
Maybe the price will not turn right away, because the buyers have won and they still have strength, but their strength is clearly running out.
The same is the case with candles, whose bodies are red, indicating the victory of sellers, but long shadows over the body indicate the strength of buyers.
The forces of buyers were able to push the price, but not to fix it.
This signal is even more bearish, because the price closed below the opening.
Conclusion
Each candle is important, but the context is more important.
Candles help to get the first signals if you are able to understand them correctly.
The shadows of candles are the story of a struggle that usually escapes the eye, but at the same time carries a lot of information.
Be careful and don't stop learning.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
✅ How to become a successful Gold trader.In the past, gold was the most sought-after precious metal due to its cultural and financial value. Gold was an integral part of the modern world currency valuation system during the twentieth century, as it was pegged to the US dollar’s value up to 1970.
Investor appetite for gold has always been high, given that the commodity has always been regarded as a safe-haven asset whose value rises whenever there is uncertainty in the global financial markets.
The term safe haven has always been used to refer to gold because the precious metal has proven that it can maintain its value in times of crisis. On the other hand, fiat currencies issued by governments usually lose value in volatile times as governments print more money to fund emergency expenditures.
Gold has been used for a long time by wealthy individuals to store their wealth and as a critical medium of exchange, especially before the advent of fiat currencies.
Although gold is regarded as being safe, some factors affect its trading price, including:
Central banks: Gold’s price is closely attached to central banks’ interest rates as part of their monetary policy decisions. High-interest rates usually lead to low gold prices as investors prefer to buy interest-bearing assets instead of gold, which has no intrinsic yields.
Jewellery industry and demand: The jewellery industry is still a big driver behind the rising demand for gold globally. Up to 80% of the newly mined gold is used to manufacture jewellery. Hence, the jewellery industry contributes significantly to rising or falling gold prices. Rising demand usually results in rising prices and vice versa.
Dollar: The price of gold is inversely related to the US dollar’s price, with rising dollar prices resulting in lower gold prices and vice versa. The dollar is primarily regarded as a safe-haven alternative to gold; hence, if investors are buying gold, they usually sell the dollar.
Economic and political crises: Gold is used as a hedge during periods of financial stress and political crises as a safe investment. The precious metal has proven over centuries that it can maintain its value during crises, hence, its designation as a safe-haven asset.
Inflation: Investors have always used gold as a hedge against inflation, which usually erodes fiat currencies’ value. Demand for gold usually rises as investors shift their wealth to gold to protect it from devaluation.
There are many ways to trade or invest in gold, including both traditional and modern methods. Here are some of the popular ways to invest in yellow metal:
Gold bullion: This is one of the traditional ways to invest in gold. Investors buy and hold physical gold as an investment. However, it is not easy to sell gold bullion; hence, you might have to hold it for a long time and might have challenges selling the gold.
Gold futures contracts: A futures contract is an agreement between the investor and the seller mediated by an intermediary where the seller promises to sell gold at a specific price to the investor at an agreed future date.
Mutual funds: Mutual funds provide an easy and flexible way to trade gold within the global markets. Investors can quickly sell their gold investments if they need to access their funds instead of buying physical gold.
Contracts for difference (CFDs): CFDs allow traders to trade gold without owning the yellow metal via virtual contracts. Traders can profit from both increases and declines in the price of gold using CFDs.
To increase your chances of success as a gold trader or investor, you must follow the necessary steps to become a successful trader, including:
Following the correct gold trading strategies.
Having a clear trading plan with both long-term and short-term targets.
Always be informed of the significant political and economic news and other fundamental factors that could affect gold’s price.
Continuously monitor the US dollar’s current price given its close relationship with gold.
In the example above, we can see a simple but effective trading strategy.
This strategy can be used on any financial instrument...
Trend Following/swing trading.
1) Follow the main trend.
To follow the main trend or identify it, a moving average or an indicator that shows you the direction of the main trend can be useful.
2) Once you have identified the major trend, it is wise to take a position in retracements, also called pullbacks.
These are phases of the market in which the price takes a breather before continuing in the main direction.
3) Price indicators are an excellent tool to have multiple confirmations of entries. We can see in the chart the use of Fibonacci retracements and stochastics.
4) Always calculate the correct amount of Lots/contracts to use.
5) Be disciplined, will only enter trades where your strategy has worked in the past.
6) be constant, remember that trading is a job.
GUIDE TO JAPANESE CANDLESHello everyone!
Today we will discuss JAPANESE CANDLES!
Let's try to understand what they mean and how to use this information in your trading.
LET'S GO!
Bullish and Bearish PIN BAR
A bullish pin bar is a candle with a long shadow, the body of which is located at the top of the candle.
Such a candle was formed under the pressure of sellers who were able to push the price down, after which buyers turned on, who pushed the price above the opening and were able to gain a foothold there.
This strength of buyers signals to us that sellers are losing dominance in the market and a trend reversal is possible soon.
A bearish pin bar has a mirror structure relative to a bullish pin bar.
Buyers can't keep the price high, and sellers take up the trend.
At these points, we can expect the early completion of the previous impulse and a possible trend change.
Bullish and bearish harami
Bullish harami consists of two candles: the first is a long full-bodied candle, the second is small with a small body.
After a strong downward impulse (the first candle), a sharp reversal begins (the second candle).
At the same time, the second candle often opens with a gep.
The momentum of the first candle is the last spurt of the market, after which buyers take over the market.
The gap in the opening of the second candle and the closing of the first confirms the strength of buyers.
Bear harami has a similar structure, but a mirror movement.
The last impulse of buyers, was replaced by the gep of sellers.
This sign indicates a possible reversal.
Bottom and top tweezers
These Japanese candles are characterized by two long full-bodied candles.
After the first strong impulse, there is a sharp reversal in the opposite direction.
This reversal has a huge force, as it is able not only to turn the price against the main trend, but will immediately gain a foothold low.
This figure is called tweezers, as the price pierces the level and abruptly returns back.
A very strong signal for a reversal.
Conclusion
These patterns are very popular and useful.
The ability to use them correctly in trading can bring significant profits.
These patterns help to determine the price reversal, which contributes to a better entry into the position.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN - TRADING GUIDE Head and Shoulders pattern
This lesson will cover the following
What is a “Head and Shoulders” formation?
How can it be confirmed?
How can it be traded?
The Head and Shoulders pattern forms after an uptrend, and if confirmed, marks a trend reversal. The opposite pattern, the Inverse Head and Shoulders, therefore forms after a downtrend and marks the end of the downward price movement.
As you can guess by its name, the Head and Shoulders pattern consists of three peaks – a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder. The head should be the highest and the two shoulders should be at least relatively of equal height. As the price corrects from each peak, the lows retreat to form the so-called neckline, which is later used for confirming the pattern. Here is what an H&S pattern looks like.
Other key elements of this pattern and its trade process are the breakouts, protective stops, profit target, and volume, which is used as an additional tool to confirm the trend reversal. So here is how you identify the Head and Shoulders pattern and how its individual components are characterized.
Formation and confirmation
In order to have a trend reversal pattern, you definitely need a trending market. Let's talk about the first model of H&S, the Inverse or Reversal will have the same methodology but exactly in the opposite way.
While prices are trending up, our future patterns left shoulder forms as a peak, which marks the high of the current trend. For the shoulder to be formed, the price then needs to correct down, retreating to a low, which is usually above or at the trend line, thus, keeping the uptrend still in force. This low marks the first point used to determine where the neckline stands.
Afterward, a new higher peak begins to form, stemming from the left shoulder low, which is our pattern head. As the market makes a higher high (the head), it then corrects back and usually, this is the point where the upward trend is penetrated, thus signaling a shift in momentum and a possible Head and Shoulders pattern.
The second low that is touched after the retreat from the heads peak is the other point used to build the neckline, which is basically a line drawn through the two lows.
The subsequent rebound from the second low forms the third peak – the right shoulder. It should be lower than the head and overall match the height of the left shoulder (keep in mind that exact matches rarely occur). It is also preferable that the two shoulders have required relatively the same amount of time to form as this would make the pattern stronger.
In order for the Head and Shoulders pattern to be confirmed, the retreat from the third peak (the right shoulder) should penetrate the neckline and a candle should close below it.
The neckline itself should be horizontal in the perfect case scenario, but that rarely happens. Instead, most often it is sloping up or down and that is of significance as well – a downward-sloping neckline is more bearish than an upward-sloping one.
Volume
As mentioned above, volume plays a key role as a confirmation tool and can be measured via indicators or by just analyzing its levels. Presumably, volume during the left shoulder advance should be higher than during the subsequent one, because as the head hits a higher high on the base of declining volume, this serves as an early signal for a possible reverse. This, however, does not happen every time.
The next step of confirmation comes when volume increases during the decline from the head's peak and the last nail in the coffin are when volume gains further during the right shoulder's decline.
Trading the pattern, stops and profit targets
We said earlier that the Head and Shoulders pattern is deemed confirmed if the right shoulder's decline penetrates through the neckline and a candle closes below it. As soon as that happens and you are reassured that it is not a false breakout, you can enter into a short position. However, as you already know, no trading decisions should be made on the go, i.e. you need to have predetermined where your protective stop is going to stand and what your profit target is.
Protective stop
There are two common places where you can place your stop loss. The first one, which is more conservative, is right above the peak of the head, while a more standard position is right beyond the right shoulder. You can see those visualized in the following screenshot.
The second option makes more sense because if the breakout through the neckline actually fails and the price rebounds back with such momentum that it rises beyond the right shoulder, then the whole pattern is flawed and you definitely do not need to wait for it to exceed the head as well. Besides, such a loose stop significantly increases the risk and reduces the risk/reward ratio, thus, reducing this pattern's trading appeal.
Profit target
The most common and often advised profit target is the distance (number of pips) between the head's peak and the neckline. Having estimated that distance, you then need to subtract it from the neckline, just like in the screenshot below.
And how does that translate in terms of risk/reward ratio? If the breakout confirmation (the close beyond the neckline) appears very close to the neckline itself, and we enter into a short position there, we generally have a 1:1 risk-to-reward proportion, if we use a conservative protective stop. Why?
Since our profit target is the distance between the heads peak and the neckline, if we decide to use the conservative option for a protective stop, then we will have the same distance as a loss limit, thus, reducing our risk-to-reward ratio to 1:1.
This is why, in order to improve that ratio, most experienced traders place their protective stops more often above the right shoulders peak, given that they use the head-to-neckline profit target.
However, keep in mind that this price distance should serve as a rough target, because things are usually not that straightforward and other factors such as previous support levels, crossing mid-term and long-term moving averages, etc. must be taken into consideration as well.
Two ways to trade the Head and Shoulders Pattern
There are generally two ways to trade this pattern, depending on how it plays out. The first one we've already mentioned. As soon as a candle closes below the neckline as a sign of confirmation, you enter into a short position with the respective profit target and protective stop described above.
Now for the second way to trade the H&S formation. In this case, we have a pullback after the neckline penetration, which, once support, now acts as a resistance level. This time we need to go short once the price pulls back and tests the neckline as resistance. As soon as it rebounds from the neckline, we enter into a short position, using the same principle for placing the protective stop and aiming for the same profit as in the first scenario. Here is what this would look like.
Average True Rangehe Average True Range is a volatility indicator measuring how much the price of an asset has moved over a certain number of periods, in other words how volatile the asset is. It was created by J. Welles Wilder and was featured in his book “New Concepts in Technical Trading System”. It was originally designed as a volatility indicator able to capture gaps in commodities, since a volatility formula based solely on the high-low range would miss that movement. However, the ATR can be used for stocks, indexes and currencies as well.
What traders use the ATR for is to determine their profit target and the optimal price level for placing protective stops by predicting how far the asset may move in the future. The Average True Range is most commonly calculated on a 14-period basis, but as with most other indicators, it can be fine-tuned according to each traders unique trading system.
The ATR is a directionless indicator, basically a type of moving average of the assets price movement over a certain period of time, which does not indicate the direction of the trend. You can see how the ATR is visualized on a chart on the screenshot below.
As you can see, We have plotted in every opened trade the value of the ATR at that moment. We've used the default 14-period basis, which means that the average price movement over the last 14 periods ( candles ) is 151 pips for the first trade, 137,8 for the second, and 196,2 for the last one. A trader can therefore expect the price to move within the range of 151 / 137 and 196 pips during these trades, thus giving a hint of where his/her profit target and protective stops should be.
As you can see. We have used 2 methods for using the ATR on these trades.
On the first trade, we have opened a position on the pullback of the previous Resistance, the SL and the TP have been calculated using the ATR multiply one time.
151 pips for the SL and 151 for the TP.
The second trade is based on a continuation trend strategy and also on this occasion the TP and SL have used the multiply ATR 1 time.
Last trade, Again Pullback on previous support with ATR multiply 2 times.
How is the ATR calculated?
The Average True Range is calculated by estimating the True Range for each of the included periods and then finding their average using a formula, which is shown below.
The True Range is defined as the greatest of the following:
– The difference between the current high and the current low
– The difference between the current high and the previous close in an absolute value
– The difference between the current low and the previous close in an absolute value
The first scenario is used when the current high is above the previous period's high and the recent low is below the preceding period's low (the previous candle is engulfed by the current one).
The second and third scenarios are used when a gap has occurred or the current period is engulfed by the previous period. Since Wilder was interested in measuring the distance between two points, and not in the direction of movement, here we use absolute values.
After we've calculated the True Range for each period we have decided to track back, we must now calculate the Average True Range by adding these values and calculating their average (as we've already said, the ATR is a moving average of the TR values).
As mentioned before, the most commonly used and set as default in most trading platforms' period settings is 14 periods. After we estimated the ATR for the initial 14 periods, we must then use the following algorithm to estimate future values:
Current ATR = / 14
How to trade the ATR
You've already learned that the Average True Range acts as a tool to measure the degree of interest or disinterest in a price movement. This means that inspiring moves are often accompanied by large TRs, especially at the beginning of a move, while weak moves are followed by narrow ranges. This allows us to use this indicator to gauge the enthusiasm behind every move, including breakouts.
For example, a price reversal, accompanied by an increase in the ATR value would suggest strong sentiment toward that move and reinforce the reversal, while a weak ATR would suggest proceeding with caution.
This is also true when the price breaks through support or resistance. If the breakout is supported by a rise in the ATR, it will be most likely a real move, but waning support from the indicator would suggest that the breakout might be false.
Relative Strength IndexThe Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely used tools in traders handset. The RSI is an oscillating indicator which shows when an asset might be overbought or oversold by comparing the magnitude of the assets recent gains to its recent losses. A common misconception is that the RSI draws a comparison between one security and another, but what it actually does is to measure the assets strength relative to its own price history, not that of the market.
The Relative Strength Index is useful for generating signals to time entry and exit points by determining when a trend might be coming to an end or a new trend may be forming. It weighs the prices upward versus downward momentum over a certain period of time, most often 14 periods, thus showing if the asset has moved unsustainably high or low.
The RSI is visualized with a single line and is bound in a range between 1 and 100, with the level of 50 being considered as a key point distinguishing an uptrend from a downtrend. You can see how the RSI is plotted on a chart on the following screenshot.
J. Welles Wilder, the inventor of the Relative Strength Index, has determined also two other fundamental points of interest. He considered that an RSI above 70 indicates that the asset is overbought, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold situation. These levels however are not strictly set and can be manually switched, according to each traders unique trading system. Trading platforms allow you to choose any other value as overbought/oversold boundary apart from the conventional levels.
How is RSI calculated?
The formula is as follows:
RSI = 100 –
Where the RS (Relative Strength) is the division between the upward movement and the downward movement, which means that:
RS = UPS / DOWNS
UPS = (Sum of gains over N periods) / N
DOWNS = (Sum of losses over N periods) / N
As for the period used for tracking back data, Wilders original calculations included a 14-day period, which continues to be used most often even today. It however can also be a subject to change, according to each traders unique preferences.
After the estimation of the first period (in our case the default 14 days), further calculations must be made in order to determine the RSI after a new closing price has occurred. This includes one of two possible averaging methods – Wilders initial and still most commonly used exponential averaging method, or a simple averaging method. We will stick to the most popular approach and use exponential smoothing. The UPS and DOWNS for a 14-day period will then look like this:
UPSday n = / 14
DOWNSday n = / 14
What does the RSI tell us?
here are several signals that the Relative Strength Indexs movement generates. As we said earlier, this indicator is used to determine what kind of trend we have and when it might come to an end. If the RSI moves above 50, it indicates that more market players are buying the asset than selling, thus pushing the price up. When movement crosses below 50, it suggests the opposite – more traders are selling rather than buying and the price decreases. You can see an example of an uptrend below where the RSI remains above 50 for almost the duration of the move.
However, do keep in mind to use the RSI as a trend-confirmation tool, rather than just determining the trend direction all by itself. If your analysis is showing that a new trend is forming, you should check the RSI to receive additional confidence in the current market movement – if RSI is rising above 50, then you have a confirmation at hand. Logically, a downtrend has the opposite properties.
Overbought and oversold levels
Although trend confirmation is an important feature, the most closely watched moment is when the RSI reaches the overbought and oversold levels. They show whether a price movement has been overdone or it is sustainable, thus, indicating if a price reversal is likely or if the market should at least turn sideways and see some correction.
The overbought condition suggests a high probability that there are insufficient buyers on the market to push the asset further up, thus leading to a stall in price movement. The reverse, oversold, level indicates that there are not enough sellers left on the market to further push prices lower.
This means that when the RSI hits the overbought area (in our case 70 and above), it is very likely that price movement will decelerate and, maybe, reverse downward. Such a situation is pictured on the screenshot below. You can see two rebounds from the overbought level with the first move being extraordinary strong and bound to end with a price reversal, or a correction at least.
.
Having noted that prices tend to rebound from overbought/oversold levels, we can therefore reach the conclusion that they tend to act as support/resistance zones. This means that we can use those levels to generate entry and exit points for our trading session. As soon as the price hits one of the two extremes, we can use the Relative Strength Index to confirm a probable price reversal and enter an opposite position, hoping that prices will reverse in our favor. We can then set the opposite extreme level as a profit target.
ANALYSIS OF THE BULLISH MOVEMENTHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss with you the bullish movement or bullish momentum.
The topic is interesting, and most importantly profitable!
Beginning of observations
To begin with, we need an uptrend.
If you open long positions when there is an uptrend in the market, you will make a profit more often.
The best entry point will be a reversal, after correction.
This is the moment we are waiting for.
The beginning of the correction will be marked by the renewal of the lows and the scrapping of the upward trend.
An imbalance appears on the chart, usually in the area of the level breakout..
Reversal+position opening
The beginning of an upward movement begins to emerge when the price cannot update the minimum and begins to form each new minimum above the previous one.
In addition, the structure breaks down and an imbalance appears in the area of breaking the level up.
Long positions can be opened at these points.
If you did not have time to open a position or want to wait for a conservative opportunity to enter, you can open a long position when the price returns to the previously broken level and tests it again.
Goals
Previous highs may be the targets.
This price movement pattern is observed on all timeframes every day.
With the correct use of this method, if you have trained well and learned how to correctly identify these points, you will be able to earn.
Train, study and earn .
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
THE HISTORY OF FOREXHello everyone!
Today I want to dive into the history of the Forex market.
Knowing history is useful, because sometimes history repeats itself.
The one who knows history will not make the mistakes of the past.
The beginning of the story
With the advent of markets, the question arose how to pay for the goods.
In ancient times, the first way was barter.
People exchanged some goods for others.
This method developed and at some point salt and spices became popular means of exchange.
In the 6th century, people realized that they needed to come up with something universal, so the first gold coins came to replace spices as payment.
Gold coins differed from spices and other trading methods in important features: portability, durability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability.
The Gold Standard
For a long time, gold coins were used as payment.
The problem was that they weighed a lot and it was extremely inconvenient to carry them in large quantities.
So, in the 1800s, countries adopted the gold standard.
The idea was that the government promised to redeem paper money if someone decided to exchange it for gold.
The amount of gold is limited and its extraction costs money and time, in difficult times it has become difficult to get enough gold to print a new volume of paper money.
During the First World War, countries had to suspend the gold standard, because more money was needed to wage war, and right now.
The Bretton Woods system
After the Second World War, representatives of the United States, Great Britain and France to create a new world order.
The whole of Europe suffered from the war and only the United States was able to emerge victorious, because the dollar had only become stronger by that time.
The adoption of the Bretton Woods Agreement was aimed at creating a regulated market with a currency peg.
A regulated fixed exchange rate is an exchange rate policy in which a currency is fixed against another currency.
All countries fixed their exchange rate to the dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold, since after the Second World War, the SS owned the largest reserves of gold.
In the end, the old gold problem loomed over the market again. More money was needed, and there wasn't enough gold for that. Therefore, in 1971, Richard M. Nixon put an end to the Bretton Woods system, which soon led to the free floating of the US dollar against other foreign currencies.
The beginning of a free-floating system
European countries were not happy with the dollar peg, so in 1972 an attempt was made to get rid of the dollar.
The agreements created by the Europeans, like the Bretton Woods Agreement, collapsed in 1973 and all this led to the transition to a free-floating system.
Plaza Accord
In the 1980s, the dollar rose strongly, exporters did not like it.
In the early 1980s, the dollar rose strongly against other major currencies. It was hard for exporters and the subsequent US balance of payments.
The US dollar weighed on third world economies and led to factory closures.
In 1985, a secret meeting was held between representatives of the largest economies, but information about the meeting leaked to the media, which forced the countries to make a statement encouraging the strengthening of non-dollar currencies.
This event was called "Plaza Accord", after which the dollar began to fall sharply.
EURO
The Second World War broke up the countries of Europe, creating many economic problems for the region.
Wanting to save the region, many treaties were concluded, but the most fruitful was the 1992 treaty called the Maastricht Treaty.
The introduction of the euro has given European banks and businesses a clear benefit from eliminating currency risk in an ever-globalizing economy.
Online trading
In the 1990s, the world began to develop rapidly.
What used to require more time and human resources was now being done faster and cheaper thanks to the Internet.
Money began to flow quickly from hand to hand, between continents, volumes grew rapidly.
The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union made the world open, there was an opportunity to trade Asian currencies that were previously inaccessible to traders.
Online trading has started to reach a new level.
Liquidity has increased dramatically due to the congruence of markets, spreads have decreased due to the competition of online brokers and new technologies.
The time has come when anyone could enter the forex market and try to make money.
The volume of funds in the market grew at an incredible rate.
The future of the Forex market
The forex market is growing from year to year.
Volumes are increasing.
There are more and more opportunities.
Trading is evolving, as is the currency, which has led to the creation of cryptocurrencies and the crypto market, the development of which is striking in its rapidity.
Never in history has a person had such an opportunity to earn a lot of money sitting at home.
But do not forget about the risks, study the market and trading methods and then you will be able to grab your piece of the big pie.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have an opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
What Is the Best Divergence Trading Strategy? 👑 What Is Divergence?
Divergence is a trading phenomenon that offers reliable and high-quality information regarding trading signals. It refers to when an asset’s price moves in the opposite direction to the momentum indicators or oscillators. Commonly used indicators include the relative strength index (RSI), stochastic oscillator, Awesome Oscillator (AO), and moving average convergence divergence (MACD).
Divergence is one of the many concepts that experienced traders use to the time when to enter or exit the market. To say a divergence occurs is to say that the price and momentum are out of sync. This signals that the market is preparing for a trend reversal or pullback, but it does not necessarily guarantee trend directions.
There are mainly two types of divergence:
1) Regular divergence is where the price signal creates higher highs or lower lows while the indicator makes lower highs or higher lows respectively.
2) Hidden divergence, which is the opposite of regular divergence, is where the indicator makes higher highs or lower lows while the price action creates lower highs or higher lows respectively.
Regular Divergence vs. Hidden Divergence
What Is Regular Divergence?
Regular divergence can be divided into two types: regular bearish divergence and regular bullish divergence.
What is Regular Bearish Divergence?
Regular bearish divergence occurs when the price action makes successively higher highs while the indicator makes consecutively lower highs. This suggests that the asset’s price is preparing for a reversal into a downtrend. The indicator signal means that the momentum is changing. Even though the price action has made higher highs, the uptrend may be weak. In this scenario, traders should get ready to go short, i.e., to sell the asset and repurchase it later at a lower price.
What is Regular Bullish Divergence?
Regular bullish divergence happens when the price action forms progressively lower lows while the indicator creates higher lows. This implies that the prices will move in an upward trend soon. The indicator action implies that the price needs to catch up with the indicator signal and that the downtrend is weak. In this scenario, traders should get ready to go long, i.e., to buy the asset.
How to Trade Regular Divergence?
Divergence only tells traders that the momentum of a price movement is weakening. This does not necessarily lead to a strong reversal, and the price movement may just be entering a sideways trend (horizontal price movement within a stable range). To create a more reliable divergence trading strategy, skilled traders combine indicators with various tools. Regular bullish divergence and regular bearish divergence have different entry rules. In any case, once a trader has spotted a divergence, they should consider how to enter or exit the market and place their Stop Loss or Take Profit orders.
What’s a hidden divergence?
Divergences not only signal a potential trend reversal but can also be used as a possible sign for a trend continuation (price continues to move in its current direction).
Hidden bullish divergence happens when the price is making a higher low (HL), but the oscillator is showing a lower low (LL).
Hidden Bearish Divergence occurs when price makes a lower high (LH), but the oscillator is making a higher high (HH).
Keep in mind that regular divergences are possible signals for trend reversals while hidden divergences signal trend continuation.
Regular divergences = signal possible trend reversal
Hidden divergences = signal possible trend continuation
Conclusion
Trading divergence can be very profitable if traders can reliably identify divergence by making use of the trading tools in their arsenal. However, like all trading strategies, using divergence indicators involves a certain degree of risk. [
HOW TO DETERMINE THE TRENDHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss with you the methods of trend identification.
Finding a trend is an important task, because it is by trading according to the trend that you can earn a lot of money.
PATTERNS
Thanks to the patterns, you can understand where the price will go.
There are many patterns confirming the trend: flag, pennant, wedge, and so on.
The exit from these patterns is the confirmation of the strength of the main trend.
Follow the patterns, they will help you find the trend.
MA
Moving Average is an important trend indicator and is quite clear and simple.
The moving average is used by analysts in large banks and funds for a reason.
The main trend indicator is the price rebound from the moving average.
If the price bounces from the moving average towards the trend, then the trend is strong.
CHANNELS
The trend pushes the price in one direction and even the corrections become shorter.
Under such conditions, the channel boundaries are directed towards the trend.
Channel breakouts also occur in the direction of the trend, which is a confirmation of the trend.
FIBONACCI
Thanks to the Fibonacci levels, you can identify good entry points.
It is enough to stretch the grid to the price impulse.
This trend helps to open a position with a good entry point.
And what methods do you use to identify the trend?
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have an opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
VIX IndexThe Volatility Index VIX is one of the most popular methods for determining stock market emotions. In full, it stands for CBOE Volatility Index, the volatility index of the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
The market is an emotion, always has been, always will be. Robots? Great, but they are created by people with emotions. And a trader needs a method that allows him to identify these emotions. That's where the VIX index comes in. It is based on the volatility of options on the S&P 500 Index. Yes, yes, it's actually an index for an index, this happens in the markets. The VIX index is also known as the Fear and Greed Index.
The index is expressed as a percentage and indicates the probability of the S&P 500 index moving over a period of 30 days, where the probability level is 68% (one standard deviation from the normal distribution curve, aka the Gaussian curve). Let's say that if the VIX is 15, therefore the expected change in the S&P 500 index over the course of a year, with a 68% probability, is less than 15% up or down.
What does that have to do with emotion? For that, we need to understand the forces that underlie any strong market movement.
Greed is the desire to possess more and more than is really needed. Whether it be money, goods, services, or any material values.
According to a number of scientific studies, greed is the product of a chemical reaction in our brains that causes common sense to be discarded and sometimes causes irreversible changes in both the brain structure and the body. Perhaps someday a pill for greed will be invented, but for now, everyone is greedy without restraint.
Greed is as addictive as smoking or drinking alcohol. "He has pathological greed," "he's the greediest guy the world has ever seen," are all victims of a very common mania.
The average trader comes to the market and he is subjected to the strongest emotional influence, caused by the very brain "chemistry". He wants more and more and more, all the time. He wants more numbers on the account. He can't stop, he can't control himself. As the result, brokers and different near-market agents use this obsession with pleasure, exploiting his mental disease.
Similar effects are associated with the emotions of "happiness" and euphoria. As a result, such traders' brains are constantly bombarded with emotional temptations and endless financial carrots, just as narcotic substances give the effect of not getting high at all but of temporary relief.
The dot-com bubble
This is a classic example of market greed. The Internet bubble led to millions of investors continuously pouring money into Internet companies between 1995 and 2000, despite the fact that most of them had no future.
It got to the point of absurdity. Some companies were getting hundreds of millions of dollars just for creating the website "XYZ dot com". Greed bred greed, led to a colossal overestimation of assets and their real value. Investors, obsessed with making easy money, invested insane amounts of money in nothing. The inflated bubble naturally burst and took all the money of the greedy people with it.
The Financial Crisis of 2008
The book "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine" by Michael Lewis (and the movie "The Big Short ") tells the story of how a few people profited from the massive greed of others. An instrument like CDS (Credit Default Swap) turned into a crazy financial pyramid scheme with a turnover of over $62 trillion. In the financial crisis of 2007-2010, the volume of this market shrank threefold another bubble driven by greed and obsession burst at the seams, and the financial world shuddered and shrank dramatically. Only a few people made a fortune as they worked against the greed of the crowd.
Fear
An uncomfortable state of constant stress, waiting for the worst fate and constant threat. The dot-com bubble also demonstrated this emotion well. To cope with the horrific results of the dot-com bubble, out of fear, investors took money out of the stock market and put it into the safest possible instruments, like stable investment funds or government-backed funds. These funds were not very profitable, but their main advantage in the eyes of investors was minimal risk. This is an example of how investors ruined all of their long-term investment plans because fear forced them to hide their money literally under their pillow. These assets did not generate income, but remained conditionally safe.
How to read VIX
The correlation between the VIX and the S&P 500 is quite clear. Let's compare the values, where the blue line is the VIX and the orange line is the S&P 500.
As we can see, a decrease in the VIX corresponds to an increase in the S&P 500, while an increase in the VIX (fear) in contrast is a signal of a collapse of the S&P 500.
Statistics show that there is an inverse correlation between the VIX and the S&P 500, as the VIX moved in the opposite direction from the S&P 500 more than 80% of the time between 2000 and 2012.
Where the VIX peaks, there is a decline in the S&P 500 and all the associated effects that affect both the dollar and other currencies.
So, if the VIX is less than 20, investors are less worried, the volatility of the S&P 500 is expected to be low.
If the VIX is greater than 30, investor fear increases as option prices on the S&P 500 rise; hence, investors pay more to hedge their assets.
A typical picture is, for example, the VIX is at an ultra-low 10 and the S&P 500 is breaking new growth records. This is all an indication of an impending collapse of the S&P 500. However, if the Central Banks change monetary policy accordingly, this VIX level could very well become the new "normal" value.
One scenario to use is to wait for the VIX to consolidate above 30 and enter the SPX on its decline. When investors have a scare, it's an indication of a panic sell-off.
Let's look at some real examples. Since the beginning of this year, the VIX Index has been hitting fear records, reaching a high of 30. In theory, this means a drop in the SPX index.
Well, why in theory? In practice it worked out 100%, the SPX index really collapsed spectacularly.
Conclusion
As we know, the S&P 500 index, which we have already studied, is the "king" index. It not only shows the state of the U.S. economy and stock market, but also indirectly shows the state of a mass of other assets, from interrelated indices to the value of the dollar. Because of correlation, Fear and Greed indices can be adapted to everything, both indices and currency pairs. It is one of the most popular stock indicators, unique in its kind and actively used for long-term market forecasts.
5 Steps to Better TradingStart journaling
This is one of the most important things in trading. You can see the numbers clearly without fooling yourself and know what's working and what's not. It also helps to start noticing the most common trading mistakes you may be making, whether you enter/exit early, whether you are better at managing trades actively or passively, the quality of your SL/TP levels and the likelihood of reaching them, etc.
If you spend 20 minutes going over your log this weekend, it will give you more insight into how to minimize losses and maximize profits than anything else you can do.
Stop trying to predict the market
This is another big problem. Wizards effortlessly take other people's money: Casinos, they don't try to predict a player's next move, they just set up a statistical edge in their favor and watch it happen over time. This is the closest thing to the Holy Grail that will ever exist.
Not opening a position is in itself a position
FOMO causes traders to get into losing trades more often than anything else. Learn to be patient and just wait for quality trades, it has given me one of the biggest boosts to growth and greatly limits losses. Staying committed to a trading plan, limits the temptation to make impulsive trades. This habit will help to control the FOMO trades. be patient, be disciplined the market will always present opportunities.
Solid risk-management
Limiting maximum drawdown and MAE, limiting leverage (but also increasing it on high probability sets), backtesting, equity curve modeling, maintaining a good asymmetric RR, cross correlation/diversification, etc. Wait for confirmation before entering a trade. better to enter a trade late and be right, than early and be wrong.
Treating trading as a job
Take your work as seriously as any other important activity in your life. You should have regular trading start and end hours, and prepare very carefully for trading sessions. Also, write reports and collect statistics to document your work.
Pro Tip: Trading Ichimoku Signals Confluence on Forex!Here's a great example of a clear uptrend using the Ichimoku cloud indicator. Popularized by the Japanese, I really like the clear trend-following visual that Ichimoku provides especially on the daily and weekly time frames for each it was originally designed by its creator, Goichi Hosoda.
Once you have confirmed trends on the higher time frames via Ichimoku, the next step is to confirm entry timings by zooming in to the lower time frames, using your favorite trend-following signals (mine is Trend Pro). This provides great confluence and extra confidence when entering your trades.
The Most Powerful Consolidation PatternWhat is the Cypher Pattern?
Cypher is a powerful consolidation pattern. In the harmonic pattern world, the Cypher pattern is a four-leg reversal pattern that follows Fibonacci ratios. The Cypher pattern is less common because it's hard for the market price to match up with fixed Fibonacci ratios. The Cypher pattern needs to follow the Fibonacci sequence in order to work correctly. This pattern works well in the ranging markets. The winrate of this pattern can reach up to 70%. On an hourly timeframe, for example, it has a 72% win rate on AUDCAD.
Defining the Cypher Pattern
The first rule of the Cyper pattern is that the price of a security must stay above the 0.382 Fibonacci ratio and below the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. There is a third point in the Cypher pattern, which is labeled "B." This is the point where XA's swing-leg retraces the 0.382 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracements.
The next rule of the Cypher pattern is a Fibonacci extension of the XA leg that comes in at 1.27, but it doesn't exceed the 1.414 Fibonacci ratios. This point of the move is labeled "C" and completes the BC swing-leg of the Cypher pattern. The final part of the Cypher pattern is where our orders will be executed. This is at the point D, which is located at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracements of the entire move started from X up to C.
How to Correctly Draw Cypher Pattern
1. The XA Move
The market creates an impulse/anchor leg when prices move a lot in a specific direction. This is the leg that is farthest away from the body. Once we know which direction we want to go, we can look for other things that need to be met in order to go that way.
2. The AB Move
After our initial move, we will look for price action to confirm our new position. If the candlestick matches the distance between the two legs by at least 38.2% then the move is considered valid. Price action does not have to close above the 38.2 be considered a valid.
The (B) leg of the trade is considered invalid if the price action does not hit a minimum of 38.2% of the original price of the (XA) move, or if it closes beyond the 61.8% retracement of the (XA) leg's original price.
3. The BC Move
Once we have met the requirements for step 2, we can look for the C leg. The market created a valid C leg by fulfilling at least a 127.2 extension of the (XA) leg. Price action also has to close above or below the previous (A) leg. This leg is invalid if it doesn't fulfill a 127.2 extension of (XA) or if it closes beyond a 141.4 extension of (XA).
4. Entry point
The market formed a successful entry point by following a 78.6% retracement of the previous move. The market forms a successful (D) completion point (entry) by fulfilling a 78.6 retracement of the (XC) move. For this completion to be valid, the (D) leg must exceed the (B) leg.
Take Profit, Stops, and Entries
Entry: The (D) completion point, which is the 78.6 retracement of the (XC) move, serves as the entry point for the Cypher pattern.
Stops: It is recommended to place stops 10 pip's beyond the (X) point.
TP1: The 38.2 retracement of the (CD) leg is the first target. If targets are met, then stops move to breakeven.
TP2: The (CD) leg's 61.8 retracement represents Target 2.
*Fibonacci retracements should be updated to the highest/lowest (D) point following entrance if price movement continues.
Examples
Conclusion
The Cypher trading strategy has a higher winning percentage than other harmonic patterns, but it's rare to see it appear on the chart. So, we need to take full advantage of the times it does show up.
FOREXN1:SWING TRADING - MADE IT EASY - A GREAT STYLE OF TRADINGSwing trading is a style of trading that attempts to capture short- to medium-term gains in a stock (or any financial instrument) over a period of a few days to several weeks. Swing traders primarily use technical analysis to look for trading opportunities. Swing traders may utilize fundamental analysis in addition to analyzing price trends and patterns.
Some general Rules before going in the Deep of the Strategy :
- Swing trading involves taking trades that last a couple of days up to several months in order to profit from an anticipated price move.
- Swing trading exposes a trader to overnight and weekend risk, where the price could gap and open the following session at a substantially different price.
- Swing traders can take profits utilizing an established risk/reward ratio based on a stop loss and profit target, or they can take profits or losses based on a technical indicator or price action movements.
Rules of entry :
Swing trading means " Surfing the trend " Using the Swing points as an entry inside a trend. The Swing point is basically retracements inside an already-started trend. Let's see the picture below. I personally call the Swing point or retracements " V " points. Let's look together. .
As you can see the retracement inside a trend looks like a " V " point. In a Bearish scenario, the " V " is upside down meanwhile inside a Bullish trend the " V " is on the correct side. Let's note, the " V " points can look also like " W " or generally is correct to call them a " Pullback " Area. In this example, EUR/USD we can see how the price used the " V " shape as Pullback to continue the downtrend.
In the picture below I add the Moving averages, the 200 and the 50. This easy and simple technical indicator can help you to determine the direction of the trend. If the price is below 200, generally it means the price is in a Downtrend, and Vice-versa when the price is above, generally it means is in an Uptrend. The 50 Moving average can help you to understand if the price it's started to grow, and when the moving average crosses the 200, generally it means that the price is started a bullish impulse. You can use any kind of indicator to determine the direction of the main trend, the moving average is one of the most used in this style of trading. As you can see, the moving average, like the 50 in this case, in EUR/USD has been used from the price as a Pullback trigger to continue the downtrend.
I explain better... The price inside a Pullback Area or " V " point, in a downtrend, below the 200 Moving average, has used the 50 Moving average as a dynamic resistance and rejected the price in the direction of the main trend.
Swing trading as explained use technical analysis to look for trading opportunities. Look how conventional support and resistance can work in this, another clue to add to our idea of entry.
Additionally, in our plan of action, we can add some technical indicators, look how the Stochastic indicator can give a clear overbought reversion signal.
Not least, the use of the Fibonacci retracement can give the Swing trader a clear metric of entry and exit point with relative stop loss and take profit area. In This last example, we can add together all the previous clues given by the Technical indicators, the use of support and resistances, and adding also Fibonacci retracements as targets for Stop loss and take profits. Remember, Swing traders may utilize fundamental analysis in addition to analyzing price trends.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Swing Trading
Many swing traders assess trades on a risk/reward basis. By analyzing the chart of an asset they determine where they will enter, where they will place a stop loss, and then anticipate where they can get out with a profit. If they are risking $1 per share on a setup that could reasonably produce a $3 gain, that is a favorable risk/reward ratio. On the other hand, risking $1 only to make $0.75 isn't quite as favorable.
Swing traders primarily use technical analysis, due to the short-term nature of the trades. That said, fundamental analysis can be used to enhance the analysis. For example, if a swing trader sees a bullish setup in a Forex pair, they may want to verify that the fundamentals of the asset look favorable or are improving also.
Swing traders will often look for opportunities on the daily charts and may watch 1-hour or 15-minute charts to find a precise entry, stop loss, and take-profit levels.
Pros
It requires less time to trade than day trading.
It maximizes short-term profit potential by capturing the bulk of market swings.
Traders can rely exclusively on technical analysis, simplifying the trading process.
Cons
Trade positions are subject to overnight and weekend market risk.
Abrupt market reversals can result in substantial losses.
Swing traders often miss longer-term trends in favor of short-term market moves.
Hope this guide can be useful for everybody.
STOCK MARKET AND FOREX CORRELATIONStocks and indices are often used for predicting the currency market. No wonder, in this world of trading, everything is interconnected in one way or another. There's a connection between stocks and currencies. Say, if you want to buy shares of a Japanese company on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, you can only do it in the local currency. As a result, your currency will have to be converted into yen (JPY), which naturally leads to an increased demand for it. The more stocks you buy on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the more demand for the yen. Conversely, the more the currency is sold, for whatever purpose, the lower its value.
When a country's stock market seems attractive, they start flooding it with money. Conversely, if a country's stock market is in shambles, investors run from it headlong, looking for more attractive places to invest. If one country's stock market performs better than another, capital will flow from one country to the other. This will have an immediate effect on their currencies. Where the money is, the currency is stronger, where the stock market is weak, the national currency weakens.
A strong stock market causes a strong currency.
A weak stock market - a weak currency.
Key global indices
Let's take a look at the key world indices that interest us. As you will notice, many of them correlate and complement each other.
Dow Jones Index
The oldest and the most famous index in the world. There are actually several of them, but the most popular one is called the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
It is the key U.S. stock index, which unites 30 companies with publicly available shares. By the way, despite the name, these companies are not particularly connected with the industry, because it is not in favor now. There are simply 30 of the largest companies in America.
This index is closely watched by investors around the world. It is a great indicator of the entire state of the U.S. economy, reacting to local and foreign economic and political events. The index tracks incredibly wealthy companies, you've heard of most of them. McDonald's, Intel, Apple are all in there.
S&P 500 Index
The Standard & Poor 500 Index, also known as the S&P 500, is one of the best-known indices on the planet. It is a weighted average price index of the 500 largest U.S. companies.
In fact, it is a key indicator of the entire U.S. economy and it is used to judge its performance. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is the most traded index in the world after the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Nikkei
The Nikkei index is like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but for the Japanese. It averages the performance of the 225 largest companies in the Japanese stock market. Typical representatives of the Nikkei are Toyota, Mitsubishi, Fuji and others.
DAX
Deutscher Aktien Index is index of the German stock exchange, which includes 30 "blue chips" the largest companies whose shares are traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Germany is the most powerful economy in the EU, so if you are interested in the Euro, you should watch the DAX. The index includes companies like Adidas, Deutsche Bank, SAP, Daimler AG and Volkswagen.
EURO STOXX 50
The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index is one of the key indices in the eurozone, reflecting the success of major EU companies. The index includes 50 companies from 12 EU countries.
FTSE
Financial Times Stock Exchange, also known as footsie, an index of the largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. There are several variations of it (which is often the case with indices). Let's say the FTSE 100 includes 100 companies and the FTSE 250, respectively, includes the 250 largest companies in the UK.
Hang Seng
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) for the Hong Kong Exchange shows changes in the prices of companies listed on the Hong Kong Exchange. The index includes the 50 largest companies with a capitalization of 58% of the total volume of the Stock Exchange.
The relationship between the stock market and the Forex
Now let's see if we should take all these indices into account when working with currency pairs. Of course, you should to determine general market trends at higher timeframes (remember multiframe analysis). In general, when the stock market is on the rise, investors are more willing to invest in it, buying the national currency. Which leads, of course, to its strengthening.
If, however, the stock market falls inconsolably, investors take their money, converting it back into their currency and the national currency weakens. However, there are two exceptions the U.S. and Japan. The economic growth of these countries often leads to the fact that their national currencies are weakening such a funny paradox, nevertheless, related to certain economic mechanisms. Let's look at how the Dow Jones Industrial Average interacts with the Nikkei.
As you can see, the DJIA and the Nikkei 225 are following each other. Moreover, sometimes the movement of one index anticipates the movement of the other, which allows you to use such a miniature time machine for making predictions.
Let's see other examples:
USD/JPY and DJI
USD/JPY and NI225
EURJPY and STOXX50
GBPJPY and FTSE100
Correlation can be regarded as an additional indicator of the global market trend. If the indicators of two interrelated assets diverge, it is much easier to determine the trends of each by methods of technical analysis. And you already know what to do with trend lines.
Let's look at some popular correlations between commodities and currency pairs.
Gold is up, the dollar is down. In economic crises, investors often buy gold for dollars, which is always up.
Gold up, AUD/USD up. Australia is the second largest supplier of gold in the world, so the Australian dollar exchange rate is in no small part related to the demand for gold.
Gold up, USD/CAD down. Canada is the 5th largest supplier of gold in the world. Therefore, if gold prices are going up, the USD/CAD pair is going down (because everybody is buying CAD).
Gold is up, EUR/USD is up. Both gold and the euro are considered the "anti-dollar". Therefore, an increase in the price of gold often leads to an increase in the EUR/USD exchange rate.
Oil is up; USD/CAD is down. Canada is the largest oil producer in the world, exporting more than 2 million barrels a day, mostly to the U.S. If oil goes up in price, the pair on the chart goes down.
Bond yields are up/the national currency is up. It is quite clear: the higher the interest rates state bonds, the more they are purchased for the national currency. As the demand for bonds goes up, the exchange rate goes up.
The DJIA is down, the Nikkei is down. The US and Japanese economies are very closely linked and go up as well as down.
Nikkei is down, USD/JPY is down. Investors often choose the yen as a "safe haven" in times of economic trouble.
The stock market, the state of which can be analyzed through indices, is directly correlated with currency pairs. Studying their interaction, you can often find situations when these data diverge so that one index acts as a "time machine" for the other. What is important is not only the correlation itself but also the fact that its polarity changes from positive to negative and vice versa.
CURRENCY CORRELATIONSCorrelation only shows exactly how two assets move in relation to each other. In the case of currency correlation, it is exactly the same story. Forex pairs can move together, in different directions, or not interact at all. Keep in mind that we are not trading just currencies, we are trading a currency pair where each participant in the pair influences the other. Therefore, correlation can be a useful tool, and almost the only one if you want to successfully trade several currency pairs at once.
Currency correlation is based on the so-called correlation coefficient, which is in a simple range between -1 and +1.
• Perfect positive correlation (coefficient of +1) means that two currency pairs move in the same direction 100% of the time.
• A perfect negative correlation (coefficient -1) implies exactly the opposite. Pairs constantly move in different directions.
If the correlation is 0, then there is no correlation at all, it is zero and the pairs are not related in any way.
The Risks of Currency Correlations
If you trade several currency pairs at once, you must realize at once how much such trading is exposed to risk. Sometimes people choose several pairs at once in order to minimize their risks, but they forget about the positive correlation, when pairs go in the same direction.
Let's assume that we took two pairs on the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The correlation coefficient is 0.94, very nice. This means that both pairs are literally following each other.
If we open trades on both pairs, we thereby immediately double our position and the risks. They increase. Because if you are wrong with the forecast, you will be doubly wrong at once, because the pairs are mirrored.
You have put it up, the price went down, a double loss. So there is correlation. Also, it makes no sense to sell one instrument and buy another, because even with an accurate forecast one of them will bring you a loss.
The volatility also differs. One pair might jump 200 pips, while the other might jump only 180 pips. That's why it's necessary to play with simultaneous trades on different pairs very carefully and without fanaticism, the correlation decides everything here.
Now let's compare the opposite case, EUR/USD and USD/CHF. They have the opposite case, a strong inverse correlation, where the coefficient often reaches the absolute value of -1.00.
The pairs are like two magnets with opposite poles, constantly pushing away from each other. If you open opposite trades on two pairs with a negative correlation, it will be the same as two identical trades on pairs with a positive correlation, again doubling your risk. The most reasonable thing is definitely to work with only one pair and not to play with the opposite pair trades, because you can quickly reach ugly values.
Correlation coefficients
Now let's see how we can look at the correlation coefficients.
-1.0. Perfect inverse correlation.
-0.8. Very strong inverse correlation.
-0.6. Strong inverse correlation.
-0.4. Moderate inverse correlation.
-0.2. Weak inverse correlation
0. No correlation
0.2 Weak, slight correlation
0.4. Weak correlation
0.6. Moderate correlation
0.8. Strong correlation
1.0. Perfect correlation
So what to do with the correlation, can it be used or not?
1. Eliminate risk
If you like to open simultaneous trades on different pairs, knowing about their correlation will help you avoid getting into the described situation where you double your risk if two pairs go in the same direction. Or you bet in different directions, not realizing that the pairs have an inverse correlation and this again doubles your risk.
2. Doubling your profits or losses
If you decide to play with simultaneous trades on different pairs, a successful trade on pairs that have a direct correlation will double your profits. Or losses, of course, if something went wrong and the forecast was wrong.
3. Risk Diversification
Market risks can be divided into two currency pairs. If you certainly understand what you are doing and if the correlation between pairs is not perfect. To do so, we take pairs with a direct correlation around 0.7 (or higher), say EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Let's say you bet on USD going up. Instead of two bets on EUR/USD going down, you could bet on EUR/USD going down and GBP/USD going up. If the dollar falls, the euro will be less affected than the pound.
4. Risk Hedging
This method is already used in forex, where it is taken into account that each currency pair has its own pip value. If you have an upside position in EUR/USD and the price moves against you, a downside position in an opposite pair, such as USD/CHF, can help. You should not forget about the different pip value in forex. For example, the EUR/USD and USD/CHF have a nearly perfect correlation, except that when trading a $1000 mini lot, one pip of the EUR/USD costs $1, while USD/CHF costs $0.93. As a result, buying a EUR/USD minilot allows you to hedge your risks while simultaneously buying a USD/CHF minilot. If the EUR/USD falls 10 pips, you lose $10. However, the return on the USD/CHF will be $9.30. So instead of $10, you would only lose 70 cents, fine.
Hedging in forex looks great, but there are plenty of drawbacks as well. For when EUR/USD rises frantically, you simultaneously lose money on USD/CHF. Also, the correlation is rarely perfect, it's constantly floating, so instead of hedging you could lose everything.
5. Correlation, Breakouts and False Breaks
Correlation can also be used to predict price behavior at significant levels. Let's assume that the EUR/USD is testing a significant support level. We have studied it and decided to enter upon its breakout. Since EUR/USD is positively correlated with GBP/USD and negatively correlated with USD/CHF and USD/JPY, we should check if the other three pairs are moving in the same volatility as EUR/USD.
Most likely, GBP/USD is also near resistance levels, and USD/CHF and USD/JPY are near key resistance levels too. All this means that the USD move the market and there are all the indications for a breakout of the EUR/USD, because all the three pairs are moving synchronously. We have to wait for the breakout.
And now let's assume that these three pairs do not move synchronously with EUR/USD. GBP/USD has no intention to fall, USD/JPY does not increase, and USD/CHF does not show any signs of sideways movement. What does this mean? The only thing that the fall of EUR/USD is not connected with the dollar and is obviously caused by negative news from the Eurozone.
The price can be below the key support level, but if the three correlated pairs do not move synchronously enough with EUR/USD, we should not expect a breakout. Moreover, it can be a false break of resistance.
Yes, you can still enter the breakout without a correlation confirmation, but then make a smaller trade volume, because you need to reduce your risks.
Correlation: pros and cons
Here everything is obvious. The cons are your risks are doubled if you open trades for two mirrored correlated pairs. In addition, the correlation changes regularly at different time intervals, which should be taken into account in your work. The pros are correlation allows you to diversify risks, hedge your trades.
Also remember that:
ratios are calculated based on daily closing prices;
a positive coefficient means that two pairs move in the same direction;
negative in opposite directions;
the closer the coefficient is to values +1 and -1, the stronger the correlation.
Examples of pairs that move synchronously:
EUR/USD and GBP/USD;
EUR/USD and AUD/USD;
EUR/USD and NZD/USD;
USD/CHF and USD/JPY;
AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
Pairs with negative correlation:
EUR/USD and USD/CHF;
GBP/USD and USD/JPY;
USD/CAD and AUD/USD;
USD/JPY and AUD/USD;
GBP/USD and USD/CHF.
Do not forget to use all that you have learned, keep in mind the risk management, and then the currency pairs correlation may become a valuable tool in your trading arsenal. And most importantly, it will allow you to avoid mistakes when you trade two pairs at once and don't even realize that you are doubling your risks if there is a complete synchronous correlation between the selected pairs.
FACTORS THAT PUSH THE PRICEHello everybody!
Today I want to discuss with you a serious question - What factors are pushing the price?
As you know, there is fundamental and technical analysis.
Each trader himself gives preference to what to use in the analysis.
And we will try to understand what pushes the price.
NEWS
The first thing that comes to mind is NEWS .
News affects OUR WHOLE LIFE .
The news pushes crowds of people to one point and forces them to flee from another.
News is a strong factor.
If the central bank decides something, it will be in the news and it will definitely push the market.
If the president of the country has decided something, it is shown on the news and it pushes the market.
If a person who decided the fate of an entire industry was fired, it will push the market and the price.
Therefore, it is IMPORTANT to follow the news and, more importantly, correctly interpret the news and be able to predict the future mood and future actions of the crowd based on them.
PATTERNS
All traders see the same chart, but everyone perceives it differently.
There are many reasons for this: someone knows more patterns, someone has more experience, someone understands better than another, someone has better discipline.
And when one or another pattern appears on the chart, people start trading and push the price.
You may have noticed that if no special picture is visible on the market, then the market is sluggish.
As soon as a pattern emerges, movement begins.
People entered the market.
Can we say that patterns move the price?
Or maybe someone is creating patterns on the chart to move the price?
EMOTIONS
We have already touched on this topic above, but it is worth noting separately.
Emotions play an important role in everything.
If the crowd is happy, the market is growing.
The crowd is afraid - the market is falling.
The crowd can be angry at the company or the country, close positions and thereby push the price down because of their bias..
The one who knows how to understand other people's emotions is able to predict the future actions of the crowd and make money on it.
Think about it...
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Classical works on economics teach us that the market is controlled by supply and demand.
more precisely, the difference between supply and demand.
If the demand is large, the price rises, if the demand is small, the price falls.
The logic is simple: if people buy a lot, someone will start raising the price before selling, why not, because people buy.
When people don't want to buy, the one who needs to sell will lower the price to lure the buyer, because you need to sell something.
At the same time, it is important that there should always be both a buyer and a seller, otherwise the price will stand still or move slowly.
When there is both a buyer and a seller on the market and a lot of transactions are made, the price moves quickly, volumes increase, so even strong jumps (GAPS) are possible.
MANIPULATION
Manipulation is the darkest, most hidden action from prying eyes.
No one can say for sure whether it was manipulation or not.
Can someone push the market?
You often observe that the price reaches your stop, after which it immediately goes in the right direction, but without you.
Many traders believe that manipulation can be observed in the market .
Someone thinks that every movement is manipulation.
What do you think?
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Why Is The Price Reversing After Hitting Stop Loss?Hello, my fellow Forex traders!
Today we will discuss one, one might say, rhetorical question that often arises among beginners and quite experienced traders. This question is as follows: "Why, as soon as my stop is hit, the price reverses?"
Why does it happen? Does the market see where you put your orders and why does it kick them out to spite you, immediately reversing in the original direction? Let's try to figure out what is the prerequisite for this situation, where most market participants put their stop losses, what to do about it and how to deal with it.
The basic idea
Let's assume you have detected the " Engulfing" pattern on the chart and concluded that the price will go up in the future. It does not matter whether the signal was shown by the indicator or the trading system. The question is, where would you place a stop loss here? Most likely, either under the candlestick or near the last local low.
Everything seems to be fine, but then the price knocks out your stop loss and goes, as expected, up. I think you can give many such examples from your own practice or from observations of other traders.
Why does this happen?
The fact is that in addition to other traders like you and me, there are big players in the market: hedge funds, banks, various institutional investors. They open rather large positions, i.e. positions of very large volume, for opening which they need a sufficient level of liquidity.
If one tries to open such a position in the middle of a trend, high volume can move the price in the direction of the position, but after that the price is likely to roll back leaving the trader at a disadvantage.
Imagine this if you, for example, come to the market to buy potatoes, but not 1 kilogram, but a whole truck. It would seem that you should get a more favorable price as a wholesale buyer, but in fact the more favorable price will be received by the one, who came to buy 1 kg.
So, the big players have to cheat and look for places with a lot of liquidity to sell in order to buy profitably and vice versa. Actually, your stop-loss for a buy position is nothing but a sell order. Accordingly, it is profitable for a large player to take exactly this liquidity in the form of stop-loss and pending sell stop orders, and thus gain his own position without moving the market price much.
You're probably wondering how such a big player could be interested in such small positions. But the fact is that approximately 95% of traders place orders in approximately the same places. Accordingly, since people think alike, the big players don't need to see all the insider information about exactly where your stop loss is, it's obvious enough. After the liquidity has been absorbed, the market goes in its own direction, but without you.
Most market participants place their stop losses at one of these locations:
Local lows/highs;
Support/resistance levels;
Round levels;
Borders of channels, rectangles and other consolidation patterns.
Where do I place a stop loss?
1) The first thing that comes to mind is not to put a stop in principle, no stop - no problem. However, this practice will not suit everyone. If you are new to the market, it is dangerous to work without a stop-loss, that is, to keep it in mind, or to use a virtual one without placing it directly in the market, and such practice often leads to large losses or loss of the entire deposit.
2) Some use various technical tricks, applying the so-called virtual stop-loss. That is, the order will be closed, but it will be closed by an Expert Advisor, not by an automatic market order. But, in fact, it does not matter whether the stop is in the market or not the behavior of the big players will not change from this.
3) The next logical solution is to put a stop loss with a larger margin (at a farther distance). This solution is not the worst and has the right to live. The reserve, however, should not be too large, otherwise you just increase the risk for nothing. This option will not help in all cases, but in general it is not a bad compromise.
4) The opposite solution a very short stop. If it is hit, you can not worry too much and then re-enter the market. This solution also has the right to life, but most often it implies a re-entry. At the same time, if the stop was hit, you need to understand why it happened, and only after analyzing the situation, enter for the second time.
5) You can enter in the same way after a false-break. If you have received confirmation of a false-break, it is possible to use this situation to your own advantage. That is, to enter the market, when the stops of other participants have been knocked out.
6) To calculate the size of a stop loss, you can use not only the chart itself, but also other tools such as the ATR indicator. The ATR readings are usually multiplied by a multiplier, such as 2 or 3. In this case, we have a daily chart and the ATR values are large enough, so a multiplier of 2 will be sufficient. The indicator shows 112 points, so we set a stop loss at a distance of 224 points (112 * 2) from the entry point. In general, as the tests show, this is probably one of the most correct ways to set a stop loss.
Conclusion
You are free to apply any of the listed solutions. Perhaps you will find your own solution to the problem some use fibo, some use ATR. The best solution is the Average True Range indicator. This is a sure way to avoid frequent stop triggering situations with a subsequent price reversal. The main thing is try to think differently than everyone else, keep in mind the big players and their methods of position taking and you will be fine!
Key to unlock the true market structure!!!Have you been struggling with marking market structure? You may have come across many Youtubers who aim to teach the market structure, but in a very wrong manner either by taking fibonacci tool or by discretion. This Video can be an eye opener for you all who are struggling in marking valid market structure.
Market structure is the backbone for every other SMC concepts. Without market structure there will be no orderblocks, breakers etc. Even if you are a beginner in market structure, that is much better since you won't be acquiring the wrong knowledge in the 1st hand.
So are you ready to uncover the real mechanical market structure?
Video will be uploaded on YT at 6:30AM GMT on 25th November 2022
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Happy Trading!!!
-Team Lamda
HOW THE INTEREST RATE AFFECTS THE FOREXGood day, fellow traders!
The topic of interest rates often appears on the agenda of various media and many are aware that it is closely connected with the global economy and finance and somehow affects the processes taking place in the foreign exchange markets. But what do interest rates really mean and why do they influence Forex trends?
The interest rate is the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial banks. They, in turn, lend to commercial companies based on this official rate. If the rates are high, then the loans are more expensive and so are the goods on the markets, and therefore less competitive. The demand for loans falls, inflation slows down and, consequently, the currency becomes more expensive.
Conversely, if rates are low, then commercial banks and then companies take loans at lower interest rates (sometimes negative), which allows you to sell goods cheaper, the Central Bank prints more money and inflation accelerates the currency becomes cheaper.
Monetary policy: why and how rates are regulated
Rates can be high or low. However, these values are always relative, so it is important to consider the historical trend and the rise/decline in relation to their own historical values.
The central bank raises the rate to prevent the economy from overheating. This happens when there is no room for growth in the economy and prices begin to rise outside of real increases in the production of goods and services, which leads to accelerated inflation and a depreciation in the trade rate of the currency.
A rate hike slows inflation and makes the currency more attractive in the eyes of investors, and commercial banks deposit investor funds at a higher interest rate. In contrast, a rate cut is stimulative and serves to accelerate economic processes, cheap credit for business, low taxes, lower unemployment, and increase business activity. This accelerates inflation and lowers the trade rate of the currency.
When and how often interest rates are changed
Central banks independently determine the timing of interest rate reviews. In the U.S., for example, rates are regulated by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). And needless to say, the whole world is watching their meetings. Usually, special committees of national central banks adopt a particular monetary rate at the beginning of the fiscal year, but, if necessary, they can change it later.
In the EU, the refinancing rate is regulated by the European Central Bank. In the United Kingdom, it is the Bank of England. In Japan it is the Bank of Japan and so on. The markets also take into account the rates of Switzerland, Canada, RBA, Norway, China, India, Korea and some European countries such as France, Italy, Germany, Spain and others.
What happens in the forex market?
If you opened the economic calendar and found that the officials of a national Central Bank are meeting to decide on interest rates then the rates may change and change the trend, depending on whether they are going down or up.
Or rates can remain at the same level, and then the trend will be determined on the basis of the current dynamics: if last time rates were cut then the trend will be bearish, and if they were raised it will be bullish.
As a rule, the prospects for rising or falling rates are repeatedly announced for a long period before they are changed. Long-term investors and position traders take advantage of this to take profits or to avoid risks.
Conclusion
• Watching interest rates is important to understand the global currency trend;
• A decrease in interest rates stimulates the economy and an increase in interest rates cools economic growth;
• If interest rates rise, the currency strengthens; if they fall, it weakens.