Silver finds support at $16.2Silver finds support at $16.2. COT futures data show that the Commercial Trader Short/Long Ratio is down to 1.23. This is a strong buy signal. The COT data can be seen on barchartdotcom and goldseekdotcom. Since USD has shown a lot of strength recently, it is reasonable to cost average smaller positions into this over the next 4-8 weeks. I am long 1 silver future and will open a half position in USLV in my 401k today.
SLV is a 1x long etf. USLV is a 3x long etf with an average volume of 2.9 million shares so it is highly liquid.
SIL
Silver has broken its downtrend lineCOT data show that the commercial traders have closed a significant fraction of their net short position. The commercial traders short/long ratio is 1.74. I would prefer it to be closer to 1.5 but it may be there when Fridays report comes out. The large speculators have mostly capitulated. I went long one silver future this AM and will open a half position in SIL in my 401k.
Gold breaks its downtrend line. See COT reports.The COT data is very important for traders to understand. Go to barchartdotcom. In the upper left, click on futures. On the left, click on commitment of traders. In the center right, click on gold. The middle graph shows the positions of the commercials (gold miners, banks, swap dealers = bullion banks), the larger speculators, and the small speculators. The lower graph shows producers, swap dealers, managed money, and others. When you slide the mouse over the futures curve, a popup shows the COT data for that week. The commercials are called the smart money. Try to side with them. They rarely go net long on gold futures. They are either making gold (producers) or are buying gold (banks). When their net futures position is near zero, that is a strong buy. Gold can take weeks to turn up and this may not be the bottom yet. The Blees score is a calculation which you can find on the web. Look at chartwatcher's gold charts from the spring of 2016. I went long on a gold future last night. I was already long on GDX and SIL in my 401k. The last time the commercial shorts were this low was January, 2016.
Silver Update. Reversal Targets 23.10The price finally confirmed the reversal breaking above the resistance.
We got small correction on lower time frame (wave b).
The yellow zigzag shows the anticipated path.
Now the metal aims at 18.28-19.98 according to Fibonacci projections.
Then we should see the larger correction.
And then another leg upside, probably the final before the huge drop down.
Utlimate target where the large Y = large W = 23.10
Changiny my view of the precious metals miners. With what looks like a reversal in the US dollar yesterday I am reevaluating my view of the miners.In both the GDX and the SIL there has been a .62 correction and the shorter term down trend lines have been broken.
There has also been a "measured move" down indicated by the down arrows. Although we have a negative reversal in the RSI, the RSI has jumped up and held in the >50 range where it often stays during advances.
These observations lead me to think the correction is most likely over with more up move to come as the dollar falls.
LONG Silver LONG!! bullish for at least next couple of daysAfter FED's Talk on Rate Monday Sept 12- 17:00 ..Traders are betting the Fed won't make a move on rates in September. Now, 85% of traders think the federal funds target rate will be 25 to 50 basis points as of September, which is where it is now. Only 15% of traders are expecting the fed funds rate to rise to between 50 and 75 basis points by September.
BULLISH FOR METALS.. At least until Fed's give more insights on Sept 21st Rate Decision.
$djia, $gdx Dow Jones correlation with Miner stocksStill positive but yesterday's candle needs attention
Gold Miners Could Pullback Before Resumption of Trend.Gold prices have been volatile, flucuating between $1,275 and $1,220 as markets remain indecisive on what stance to take: is the Federal Reserve going to continue hiking assuming the economy will "gradually improve," or with traders continue to look for safer locations to place there cash?
According to recent capital flow data, the GLD has seen redemption as market participants choose to overlook the weakening global economy and its implications. Nevertheless, with inflows into risk ETFs like SPY and HYG, gold miners could see their shares pull back from this historic gold run.
Technically, after GDX broke out of a longer-term downtrend, price action began to oscillate within a narrow ascending channel. Prices are likely to pullback to channel and price action support of $19.80, while a confirmed break (or daily close below support), miners could fall to $18.85 and, potentially, $17.85 - also nearing the 50-day EMA.
However, if the popular mining ETFs can remain above support, price action could challenge $21.88 and $23.03.
Overall price action and trend momentum still remain rather supportive to the upside.
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Silver: Anything can happenThe title by itself is indicative of any possible trade, but it's more of an opinion than a trade opportunity, as probabilities here on an R/R basis, are not the best, which should be our only criteria.
As you can see in the attachments I was very positive and enter full long precious metal (jacked?) positions, on spot, futures,stocks and bullion more than two months ago. The reasoning behind is fully explained there, I believe.
So, what's changed then since this?
stocktwits.com
Lots of technicals, overextended, negative reverse divergence, supply zone, trendlines and I'm sure that you are far better than me finding many others as well.
The attitude of big traders as you can see in latest COT's its not the typical early stage uptrend we have seen in the past, rather I would say the big bar of June 19th looks like the product of short covering. Also this kind of positioning has signalled a pause in the past and not a continuation. Very quickly to extremes.
nowandfutures.com
The are still large amounts of positions in put options at $18 and $16 at CME. Of course this is the fuel that will push the price to increase if their stop losses getting hit.
www.cmegroup.com
Daily current pattern looks like what Bulkowski calls a "Flag tilt", while on the weekly price is at kumo resistance.
thepatternsite.com
Couple of newsletters I read in their free weekly/monthly edition calls for the mega bull, not always a good factor to include in your trades. More often than not, it pays to do exactly the opposite, it depends on the writer
Sentiment readings regarding public opinion in silver hit the 65 mark, an area associated with tops in the past and not early uptrends.
Last but not least we have the seasonality factor, like last year in a box to the left of the chart.
All this together at the same time with everyone I know waiting for a lower high to be established, in order to long the sector.
Anything can happen. I passed thankfully the stage of the "what if" trades and I can happily live with trades that I didn't enter if they don't fit my risk management or R/R criteria. Markets will be there for ever doing their thing. I want to feel the same for my accounts.
All the best guys
P.