Morning folks, So, everything is going with the plan by far. Market has reached ~60K area where potential right arm of our 4H reverse H&S pattern should stay. But here is a minor tricky thing. Overall performance doesn't look bullish by far. On 1H chart it even looks bearish. We have downside acceleration and uncompleted XOP target that makes an Agreement with...
Morning everybody, So, the first step of our trading plan is done - market is around 61K, which is intraday strong support area. It is preferable if upside action starts from here, although downside continuation to next support and XOP target will not become a tragedy yet, but will be looking worse with lower chances on success. Now we need to watch for small...
Morning folks, So, everything goes with the plan, although the upside bounce that we've discussed is stronger than we thought. It means that bearish long-term patterns are still valid, say on monthly chart, we do not consider short entry right now. Vice versa, there are a few bullish patterns might be formed intraday. First is reverse H&S with 67K neckline,...
Morning guys, So it seems we've correctly reversed our position down from 62K area. Today we increase the scale a bit and take a look at daily chart. Indeed BTC has broken triangle down as we've suggested. But it is more important that it also has broken K-support level and only oversold stops the downside continuation. This makes us to consider next downside...
Today guys, update is very short. This is the only picture that we need for now, although we cold find more bearish signs on higher time frames as well. Despite that BTC has tried to show couple of pullbacks up from our 62-62.5K area - reverse H&S has not been formed. Other words, market was not able to confirm bullish reversal and other bullish patterns that we...
Morning folks, As we've promised on Thu last week, the close of the week will be most important thing that could change everything. That has happened. AS BTC has closed 5K higher - we haven't got any bearish engulfing on monthly chart for now. But what is more important - we have bullish grabber on weekly, suggesting that price should challenge ATH again. Not...
Morning folks, Although BTC situation is changing and not to the good (we've talked about last time), market now stands at strong support area. 59-60K is strong daily support and oversold level. While here, BTC has done "222" target, suggesting that at least 30% pullback, somewhere to 64-65K area is possible. But, in longer term, drop under 60K will push price...
Morning folks, So, unfortunately for BTC - it is traded 24/7, so while other markets were closed, BTC has taken all the mess from geopolitics. With recent collapse, it is logical to ask - where all those people who were taking about "safe haven", "gold replacement" etc... Now due geopolitical turmoil in weekend, our short-term bullish context has been...
Morning everybody, So, our H&S pattern starts perfect. The only thing that we've missed is the neckline top - we thought it should be around 71K but it has been formed around 73K, which is even better in perspective. So, 2nd stage of the plan is done as well - right arm stands in place. We also have bullish grabbers on daily chart. All this stuff, based on...
Morning folks, So, on Thursday we've suggested "60-67-60" action, and there are no questions to the first part. Indeed rally was really nice. But, the 2nd part of action from 67K down to 60K was based on potential weekly bearish engulfing pattern, if you remember. But it has not been formed as you could see. Together with other bullish signs that it is too long...
Morning fellows, So our breakout setup is done well. What is looking intriguing now - BTC behaves quite different to gold, have you signed this? Recent performance, especially if we get good NFP tomorrow suggests that retracement might be a bit deeper. We consider 60-60.5K area as potential target (because we could get weekly bearish engulfing pattern by this...
Morning folks, So, it seems that "222" Sell last time was not a bad idea at all. Despite that BTC stands in rectangle we've got two nicely looking downside bounce. Now we have some nuances with the BTC performance, but to keep it simple it is mostly suitable for those who like to trade breakouts. If you do not want to wait a bit for clarity on daily chart, in...
Morning folks, So, our H&S is done well, and already has reached the minimal target. Now the major question whether it will go to 74.3$, a kind of "bonus" upside target. Maybe.. But, today we would think about protection and risk control, rather than about some bargain. On daily chart we've got bearish grabber that is taking the shape of '222" Sell here, on 1H...
Morning folks, So, let's go back to our H&S pattern, which is a 2nd attempt to go long. You could see that it starts working. Right arm stands in place and now we could move stops to breakeven. Second is - we could estimate targets. First one is H&S AB=CD around 69.70K. If we get lucky, we could see 1.618 expansion to 74.3K. Finally, if you've missed entry...
Morning folks, Despite how great Monday's setup was looking, BTC was not able to compete it. H&S has failed and BTC dropped almost to ~60K area. Still, the same context is still valid - BTC at daily oversold. But this time it is also at strong K-support area. Thus, our attempt for to take the long position continues. This time, pattern looks better, and...
Morning folks, Although we were a bit sceptic last time about good entry chance, because we saw how BlackRock just buying out any, even minimal deep on the market. Still, market was able to reach 65K area that we've discussed on Thursday. 65K is also daily oversold. Since we have strong upside momentum, upside bounce should be at least 5/8, which is around...
Morning folks, So, BTC keeps it unstoppable rally, and is strongly overbought on weekly chart. But for now market totally ignores this. Yes, upward action is slowing, we have small tactical bearish grabbers on 4H chart, but it gives low chances on moderate retracement. BTC successfully holds above previous ATH, showing no significant retracement and no doubts -...
Morning folks, So, on Monday we've sent relatively modest target - around 65.5K, it was completed. Now BTC stands at weekly overbought and strong upside continuation is hardly possible immediately. Still, intraday scenarios are also not perfect. At first glance, on 4H chart, with the grabbers aboard, we could count on tactic downside deep. But, on 1H chart (not...