Morning folks, here is just minor update as BTC has shown almost no changes. FX market reacted stronger. As major bearish patterns on higher time frames stand intact, Dollar Index is tending to 113 target, we suggest that BTC should complete our butterfly and 17.4K target at least. Bulls for should be patient and wait when this will happen, at least. Although...
Morning folks, So, miracle has not happened, and phantom bullish setup that we've discussed last time has been vanished. We see now multiple fundamental reasons of downside continuation, not only Fed move for 1%. Dollar Index analysis shows that currency should reach 113 point level, households start selling stocks, which is necessary factor for collapse on...
Morning folks, So, CPI report stands in a row with our long-term BTC view, matching good to the 12K and 9K targets that sooner or later but will be completed. Currently overall sentiment stands negative as chances for 1% Fed move now jumped up to 38%. Besides, our Dollar Index Analysis suggests action to 113 area, which brings nothing good to the bulls here as...
Morning folks, Based on recession fears and some decrease of crude oil prices, as well as anticipation of lower CPI numbers tomorrow, market falls in euphoria, suggesting deeper upside bounce. We do not see any positive change in fundamental picture and treat this action as temporal. Still, in short-term, market has formed bullish reversal swing, and...
Morning guys, So, BTC even over-completed our COP target, diving a bit deeper, to 1.618 butterfly extension. Stocks market now stands in short-term euphoria, concerning oil prices drop and US yields easing. So, why we shouldn't use it? As we've suggested, we could wait for upside bounce to 19.8K resistance at least, or , if we get lucky, to 20.40-20.50K...
Morning folks, Overall action stands relatively quiet,so we have minimal changes since Mon. Overall context remains bearish. Maybe poor NFP numbers only could trigger more or less moderate bounce. Here we have two targets. First one is 19.2K which could be finalized by minor butterfly with tactical upside response on intraday charts. This is the object for...
Morning folks, Thursday plan has worked nice. Wyoming meeting just has confirmed our long-term view and why we call to stay aside of BTC since Jan 2022. BTW, we've prepared new fundamental report where we explain why it is not the time yet to invest, set downside targets and also share forecasts of long-term performance of BTC and US Stocks... ITs free on...
Morning folks, So, our Monday setup is accurately done - minor AB-CD pattern completed, and we have "222" Sell pattern. Wyoming could bring surprises, and break technical setup, no doubts. But this factor is external and stands out of our control. So, it makes no sense to rely on it. Technical picture looks bearish and suggests downside breakout. Supposedly...
Morning folks, BTC goes with our long-term fundamental view and those who read our monthly reports knows about it since December 2021 when we've warned against long-term investments in BTC. This week end we have taken in-depth view on the US stock market that shows bad perspectives and BTC as usual is becoming a storm crower, with 600 Mln+ positions were...
Morning folks, So, longer-term perspective remains bearish by far as Fed minutes recently tells that tightening effect yet to come on the market, unemployment should start rising in II H of 2022 and Fed stands on the course of 0.5-0.75% rate change in September. In general this sounds hawkish enough. The pullback from daily resistance that we've discussed last...
Morning folks, Our long term view stands intact - we do not exclude action up to 30K or even to 36K resistance within 6-9 months due changes in fundamental background - starting QE activity from the Fed and massive US government programmes up to $1 Trln. This should flow more liquidity on the markets. This is the way how Democrats would like to create the...
Morning guys, As we've said few weeks ago - the Fed strategy is changing and we take off the table 9K and 12K target for at least 6-9 months, when BTC could feel pretty nice. Recent CPI data also should have long lasting effect, letting Fed to act with more freedom and not as aggressively, which is inspired stocks and crypto markets. As NFP report as CPI data...
Morning folks, So, upside action has started accurately once the butterfly and XOP target have been completed, based on our previous update. BTC feels safe on the background of recent Fed money market activity. Last week was injected about $25 Bln, so should be no problems from this side. The only risk factor this week is CPI on Wed. As we've said recently - we...
Morning folks, As Fed has chosen money printing strategy we postone scenario with downside collapse to 9-12K area for 6-9 months. Now, additional liquidity flow should stabilize as stocks as BTC market, and even let him to rise a bit. In short-term we consider the same 21.95-22.25K support area on 4H chart as then one, where BTC potentially could turn up again...
Morning everybody, Under negative GDP numbers and Fed trash talks, there are few who signed a shift in fundamental background. US government and Fed are defeated by inflation and turn back to QE(as well as ECB). Fed fails to keep QT pace, buying less bonds that it has promised. In fact, with spending money from US Treasury deposit - there was no tightening but...
Morning folks, So, BTC keep showing upward pullback and recent dovish Fed decision has let it to start upward action from predefined level: As we expect negative GDP numbers, in a moment it should weak the US Dollar, which in turn, should be supportive to BTC and could let it to reach next 25.5-26K resistance area. For position taking you could use most...
Morning folks, So, miracle has not happened and BTC stucked around 23K area - first major daily resistance area. On intraday charts we do not have any bearish patterns yet and could even say that bulls have theoretical chances on upside action to 25.5-26.2K next resistance area, but... we do not believe that this will happen... and here is why. With coming big...
Morning folks, As BTC stands relatively free until major events on next week, it shows tactical upside pullback where we've set two targets. First one around 23K is completed already and next one is around 25.5K. Although we think that chances that BTC will reach it are low. This week it is vitally important where market will close, because it makes direct...