NZDUSD: Long Trading Opportunity
NZDUSD
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy NZDUSD
Entry - 0.5858
Stop - 0.5854
Take - 0.5864
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Smartmoney
EUR/USD Breakout Incoming? COT & Sentiment Point to 1.1850COT Report (09/09/2025)
EUR (Euro FX CME): Non-Commercials increased longs (+2,389) and reduced shorts (-3,696) → bullish bias.
USD (US Dollar Index): Non-Commercials remain net short (24,750 vs 19,192 longs). Slightly bearish bias on the dollar.
👉 The combination suggests a favorable context for Euro strength against USD.
📊 Seasonality
September is historically flat or slightly negative for EUR/USD, but over the last 5 years seasonality shows a recovery in the second half of the month.
👉 This reinforces the idea that downside risk is limited and that pullbacks may offer long opportunities.
🧠 Sentiment
Retail traders: 74% short, only 26% long.
Classic contrarian signal: retail is short, which supports a long bias.
📉P rice Action & Technicals (H1/D1/W1)
Price is moving inside a daily ascending channel (uptrend in progress).
Key resistance: 1.1800 – 1.1850 (weekly supply cluster).
Main support: 1.1650 – 1.1600 (daily demand zone, RSI reacted).
Daily RSI above 50 → positive momentum, not overbought.
✅ Operational Summary
EUR/USD shows a favorable context (fundamentals + COT + sentiment) supporting the upside.
Technical structure favors a test of 1.1850 resistance.
Best strategy: look for long entries on pullbacks or breakouts, with invalidation below 1.1650.
CADJPY Breakdown Incoming? Specs Selling CAD, Buying JPY1. Retail Sentiment
68% long vs 32% short → The majority of retail traders are positioned long.
From a contrarian perspective, this increases the risk of a downside move to flush out these long positions.
2. Seasonality
JPY (September): historically tends to appreciate from mid-month onward.
CAD (September): historically weak, with flat to negative performance.
Seasonal Bias: favors strong JPY / weak CAD → bearish CADJPY outlook.
3. Commitment of Traders (COT)
CAD (Sept 16, 2025):
Non-commercials: still heavily net short (128k short vs 21k long).
Commercials: strong long exposure (218k), but speculative flows remain bearish.
Bias: CAD continues to be sold by speculators → bearish pressure.
JPY (Sept 16, 2025):
Non-commercials: net long (161k long vs 100k short).
Commercials: strong shorts (163k), as usual for hedging.
Bias: speculators are accumulating JPY longs, reinforcing strength.
👉 COT View = Weak CAD, Strong JPY → Bearish confirmation for CADJPY.
4. Technical Analysis
Current price: 106.77, trading inside the daily demand zone (106.50–106.00).
Structure:
Well-defined descending channel.
Multiple bounces in the 106.00–106.20 area → key support zone.
RSI neutral, not yet oversold.
Scenarios:
Scenario A (probable): break below 106.20 → extension towards 105.50, then 104.80 (swing low zone).
Scenario B (alternative): technical bounce from demand (106.20–106.00) → recovery towards 107.80/108.00 (weekly supply).
✅ Conclusion: CADJPY shows a bearish setup supported by COT, seasonality, and contrarian sentiment. The technicals highlight a descending channel with potential breakdown below 106.00. Best setups: short on pullbacks with targets at 105.50–105.00.
CHF-JPY Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CHF-JPY is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A retest of the horizontal
Support level of 186.000
And a is already making
A bullish rebound so we
Are bullish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further bullish move up
Buy!
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GBP-JPY Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-JPY made a bearish
Breakout of the rising
Support line and now
Made a retest of the new
Rising resistance and made
A pullback so we are
Bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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USDCAD: Will Start Falling! Here is Why:
Looking at the chart of USDCAD right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move down seems to be quite likely.
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AUDJPY: Long Trade Explained
AUDJPY
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long AUDJPY
Entry - 97.434
Sl - 97.350
Tp - 97.587
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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USD-CHF Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CHF made a retest
Of the horizontal support
Around 0.7920 from
Where we are seeing
A local bullish reaction
Already and we will be
Expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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AUDUSD: Bulls Will Push Higher
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current AUDUSD chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the upward direction.
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GOLD: Short Trade Explained
GOLD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry - 3726.8
Stop - 3739.3
Take - 3703.3
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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EUR-GBP Strong Brekaout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-GBP is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A bullish breakout of the
Key horizontal level
Around 0.8700 area
So we are locally bullish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further move
Up on Monday
Buy!
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EUR-NZD Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-NZD is trading in an
Uptrend and our bullish
Bias in confirmed by a
Bullish breakout of the
Key horizontal level
Around 2.0000 so we
Will be expecting a
Further bullish move up
On Monday
Buy!
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NATGAS Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS made a retest
Of the wide horizontal
Support level of 2.876$
And a local rebound is
Already taking place so
We are bullish baised
And we think that a local
Bullish correction is to
Be expected on Monday
Buy!
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SPY: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
SPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry Point - 663.63
Stop Loss - 664.95
Take Profit - 661.51
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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USOIL: Market of Buyers
Looking at the chart of USOIL right now we are seeing some interesting price action on the lower timeframes. Thus a local move up seems to be quite likely.
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CAD_CHF RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅CAD_CHF is set to retest
A strong resistance level
Above at 0.5790 after trading
In a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback
A likely scenario with the target
Being a local support
Below at 0.5763
SHORT🔥
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