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DAX INDEX | Elliott Wave + SMC + Fib + Market CycleDAX INDEX | Super Cycle Wave (3) In Progress | Micro Wave (iv) Correction Expected | Elliott Wave + SMC + Fib + Market Cycle This macro outlook on the DAX Index (GER40) combines Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , and Fibonacci Analysis , tracking the long-term price structure from the 1990s into the expected 2029 Super Cycle top . We are currently nearing the completion of Micro Wave (iii) inside Super Cycle Wave (3) , with a correction expected as Micro Wave (iv) before a final leg Wave (v) to complete the 20-year Super Cycle advance. 🌀 SUPER CYCLE STRUCTURE (Wave Count Recap) 🔵 Supercycle Wave (1) 📈 Topped in 2000 📐 Five-wave impulse from early 90s 💡 Marked the first major peak of the new macro bull cycle 🔴 Super Cycle Wave (2) 🕰 2000–2009 📉 Multi-year W-X-Y complex correction 🔻 Pulled back to 0.618 retracement of Wave (1) 📍 Bottomed Jan–Feb 2009 — Smart Money accumulation zone 🚀 Supercycle Wave (3) — Now in Progress (2009–2029 Target) This is a multi-decade impulse wave , subdividing into Micro Waves (i) through (v) . 🟠 Micro Wave (i) 🕰 2009–2018 ✅ Clean 5-wave impulsive structure 🔓 Broke above Super Cycle Wave (1) high 📊 Confirmed initiation of Wave (3) 🟠 Micro Wave (ii) 🕰 2018–2020 (COVID crash) 🔻 Pulled back to 0.50 retracement of Wave (i) 📦 Retested key order blocks 💧 Liquidity swept beneath 2016–2018 lows 📈 Smart Money reaccumulation before major expansion 🟠 Micro Wave (iii) — Currently Unfolding 🕰 2020 – Expected top by end of 2025 or early 2026 🚀 Strongest wave in the structure 🔼 Targeting 2.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave (i) 🎯 Target zone: 30,941 (~32K) 📊 Multiple internal impulses have formed 🧠 Price delivery: Consistent BoS Minimal retracement No parabolic blow-off yet → confirming institutional flow 🟠 Micro Wave (iv) — Correction Expected Next 🕰 Expected: 2026 to early 2027 🔻 Projected retracement: 0.382 – 0.5 of Wave (iii) Target zone: 23,350 – 22,165 💧 Confluence with: Sell-side liquidity pools Prior OBs and imbalance zones ⚠️ Reaccumulation phase likely before final rally 🟠 Micro Wave (v) — Final Advance to Complete Supercycle Wave (3) 🕰 Expected top by 2029 🎯 Target range: Above 32,000, possibly toward 35,000+ depending on extensions 🔄 Will mark the peak of Supercycle Wave (3) 📉 Anticipate a major correction in Supercycle Wave (4) after that 📐 FIBONACCI LEVELS OF INTEREST Structure Key Fib Levels Supercycle (2) 0.618 retracement of (1) Micro Wave (ii) 0.50 retracement of (i) Micro Wave (iii) 2.618 extension of (i) → 30,941–32K Micro Wave (iv) 0.382–0.5 retracement → 23,350–22K Micro Wave (v) Possible extension to 38K+ 🧠 SMART MONEY CONCEPTS (SMC) 🔓 Break of Structure (BoS) confirmed trend shifts at Wave (i), (ii), and internal impulses 📦 Order Blocks respected at retracement zones (2020 low, 2022 correction) 💧 Liquidity Grabs below previous lows fuel impulsive breakouts 🧱 Price Delivery = Institutional — no euphoric parabolas yet 🎯 Expect engineered liquidity sweep before Wave (iv) reaccumulation 📌 CONCLUSION We are now nearing the completion of Micro Wave (iii) inside Super Cycle Wave (3) of the DAX. Price is approaching major extension targets (30,941–32,000), from where Wave (iv) correction is due. This pullback (2026–2027) is expected to offer high-probability re-accumulation opportunities within a Smart Money demand zone before the final macro rally to new ATHs into 2029. ⚠️ After 2029 , expect a larger Supercycle Wave (4) correction phase. 📘 DISCLAIMER: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management.
FX:GER30Long
by fibcos
NASDAQ 100 (1W) – Elliott Wave + Smart Money Analysis by FIBCOSThe index (NASDAQ) continues its macro impulsive structure, now expanding through Wave (3) — targeting the 2.618 Fibonacci extension near 26,997( 27K ). Smart Money is driving this leg with clear bullish order flow, creating multiple Fair Value Gaps and Breaks of Structure along the way. After this expansion, we expect a Wave (4) correction between 22,000–17,500, where institutional demand zones await for re-accumulation before the next macro bullish leg (Wave 5) toward 35,000–38,000. 📊 Confluence Highlights: Wave (3) → 2.618 extension (target zone: 26.9K–27K) Wave (4) → 0.382–0.618 retracement (zone: 22K–18K) Wave (5) → 1.618 projection (target zone: 35K–38K) 🧠 Elliott Wave Theory Interpretation ① Wave (1) — The Initial Expansion (2020–2021) Early bullish impulse following pandemic recovery. Represents Smart Money accumulation followed by a breakout. Retail participation remains limited; institutional footprints dominate. ② Wave (2) — Corrective Pullback (2022–2023) Sharp decline toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone. This phase was a liquidity grab — Smart Money re-entering after shaking out weak hands. Price formed a higher low , maintaining long-term bullish structure. ③ Wave (3) — The Power Leg (2023–2026) The strongest and most extended wave — aligned perfectly with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~26,997 zone). Confirms institutional markup phase , where: Retail short sellers are trapped. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are created during impulsive moves. Continuous Break of Structure (BOS) validates bullish order flow. Smaller degree sub-waves (1–5) visible inside, confirming internal impulse rhythm. ④ Wave (4) — The Upcoming Correction (2026–2027) Expected macro re-accumulation zone , likely between 22,000 – 17,500 . Market may enter a sideways complex correction (W–X–Y)/(W-X-Y-X-Z) pattern. This is the Smart Money re-accumulation phase — liquidity collection before the next macro expansion. Demand zones: previous unmitigated order blocks around 20,000–18,000 area. ⑤ Wave (5) — The Final Expansion (2028–2029) After consolidation, the index may aim for new all-time highs toward 35,000–38,000 range. This represents a distribution phase , where Smart Money offloads positions near cycle tops. Expect divergence in momentum indicators , hinting at the end of the 5-wave structure. --- 💡 Smart Money Concept (SMC) Confluence Concept | Observation | Implication Liquidity Sweep - Below 2022–2023 lows (Smart Money accumulation confirmation) Order Blocks - 22,000–18,000 zone {Institutional demand zone for Wave (4)} Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) During Wave (3) impulsive rise {Will likely get mitigated during Wave (4)} Break of Structure (BOS ) Continuous bullish BOS confirms institutional intent Premium/Discount Zones Current price at premium (above equilibrium) Ideal region for institutional profit-taking 🧭 Smart Money Flow: Accumulation → Expansion → Re-accumulation → Final Distribution --- 📐 Fibonacci Confluence Levels Wave (3) → 2.618× extension of Wave (1–2) → ~26,997 (expected macro resistance). Wave (4) → retracement likely between 0.382–0.618 → 22,000–17,500 zone. Wave (5) → projected 1.618× of Wave (1–3) → 35,000–38,000 . --- 🧭 Market Outlook Summary Timeframe | Bias | Expectation Short-Term (2025–2026) 📈 Bullish Continuation toward 26,900–27,000 Medium-Term (2026–2027) ⚠ Corrective Re-accumulation phase, smart money reloads Long-Term (2028–2029) 🚀 Bullish Wave (5) macro expansion toward 35K–38K --- 🔖 FIBCOS Summary > NASDAQ 100 Weekly Chart (Elliott + SMC) Currently expanding through a powerful Wave (3) toward the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~27K). After completion, a macro correction (Wave 4) is expected, providing the next Smart Money accumulation zone between 22K–18K before the final Wave 5 expansion toward new highs beyond 35K. 📘 Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Educational purpose only. #FIBCOS #NASDAQ100 #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #MarketCycle #Fibonacci
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by fibcos
4
CRUDE OIL Will Keep Falling! Sell! Hello,Traders! CRUDE OIL retested the horizontal supply area cleanly and is now forming a pullback, confirming Smart Money’s intent to continue distribution. Liquidity above recent highs is likely absorbed, with price expected to target 60.10$ to rebalance inefficiency and continue bearish flow.Time Frame 3H. Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:USOILShort
by TopTradingSignals
1