LONG ON NZDCADBOS followed by a grab on SSL(Sell Side Liquidity)
Indicates neeed to go to the upside so liquidity was taken below in the form of SL's from Buy orders and Sell limits/ orders places
Smctrading
SHORT ON GAChanged opinion on GA, upon further analysis the trend shows bearish motion
stop hunts taken after the X symbol heading to break the lows created, possible buys to the area of interest then we sell
Placed a very tight sl of about 10 pips to give me a trade with an over 1;20 rr
LONG ON GAsimilar to the schematic i always use, always looking for a valid Stop hunt this side being on the SSL side which fueled the initial move to break the last high.
This left us with a high probability blueprint of where exactly higher or bigger institutions entered the market.
decent 1;12 rr trade, black line below liquidity was a regular entry but i prefer a more defined OB thus i am entering much lower
Lets wait and see how the trade runs out
XAUUSD – 11/12: After major news, only trade at liquidity zones XAUUSD – 11/12: After major news, only trade at liquidity zones
Yesterday brought significant market news, so today’s price action lacks a clear trend.
In this environment, I avoid guessing direction and focus solely on two potential liquidity areas:
Sell timing zone near 4.219
Buy OB zone at 4.197–4.194
Asian session pressure favoured sellers, but the higher-timeframe trend remains intact.
Thus, the plan is simple: short-term sells, buy at good support, no one-sided positions.
🎯 Scenario 1 – Timing SELL at 4.219 (experienced traders only)
Sell zone: around 4.219
Note: This is a timing execution, NOT a pre-set limit order.
Acceptable deviation: ~2 points.
If ideal timing is 4.219 but you only see price after it reaches 4.221 → skip it.
TP guide: at least 15 points, e.g. 4.204–4.203.
Idea:
4.219 is an upper liquidity pocket where many FOMO buys accumulate.
If price sweeps this area and weakens, I take a short sell in line with the Asian session bias — purely intraday.
⭐️ Scenario 2 – BUY at OB 4.197–4.194
Buy zone: 4.197 – 4.194
Setup invalid below: 4.191
TP: +15 points or more, e.g. 4.209–4.212.
Reasoning:
This OB zone previously generated strong upside movement, indicating institutional interest.
If price revisits and shows bullish reaction, it becomes a high-R:R buy opportunity.
1️⃣ Fundamentals & market psychology
After an extended rally, gold bulls are becoming cautious due to uncertainty over how quickly the Fed will ease in 2025.
Cuts are expected — the question is how fast and how often.
This puts gold into a choppy, range-bound phase instead of a clean breakout environment.
So today, instead of trend-trading, I prefer reading liquidity levels and reacting to price behaviour.
2️⃣ Plan & discipline
No trades in the messy 4.20x zone.
Execute only at:
Timing Sell 4.219 (±2 points)
Buy OB 4.197–4.194 (void below 4.191)
Risk per trade: 1–2% max, no holding when invalid.
If price breaks both zones and trends strongly, I step aside and wait for new structure.
👉 Above 4.219 → only SELL timing
👉 Into 4.197–4.194 → only BUY
👉 Below 4.191 → buy setup invalid
XAUUSD – LANA PREFERS BUYING AFTER THE ABC CORRECTION...XAUUSD – LANA PREFERS BUYING AFTER THE ABC CORRECTION COMPLETES (H1)
1. Fundamental Analysis
While Trump draws attention with his “Gold Card” idea worth up to $1 million, the more meaningful story is the continuous flow of capital into gold as a safe-haven and long-term accumulation asset.
Bank of America believes gold remains in a long-term uptrend and is even “under-owned”, projecting that prices could reach $5,000/oz by 2026 if investment demand increases.
Given this backdrop, Lana maintains her view: current pullbacks on H1 are opportunities to look for trend-following buy setups rather than rushing to sell against the major uptrend.
2. Technical Analysis (H1)
On H1, the ABC corrective structure has completed, and price has bounced precisely from the rising trendline — showing buyers are still defending the trend.
The recent bullish leg is retracing to retest:
Fibonacci 0.382 — aligned with a short-term support area.
Fibonacci 0.236 — closer to the rising trendline, forming a strong confluence zone for buying.
Upper resistance remains around the previous high and the major trendline above, but for now, Lana focuses on waiting for price to pull back into the Fibo + trendline zones before expecting the next bullish wave.
3. Key Levels to Watch
Buy scalping zone (Fibo 0.382 + support): 4205 – 4207
Deeper buy zone (Fibo 0.236 + trendline): 4196 – 4198
Technical SL:
Below 4200 for the upper setup
Below 4190 for the lower setup
4. Trade Scenarios
⭐ Scenario 1 – Buy at Fibo 0.382 + support
Buy: 4205 – 4207
SL: 4200
TP: Depending on preference, target the recent highs around 423x–425x.
⭐ Scenario 2 – Buy at Fibo 0.236 + trendline
Buy: 4196 – 4198
SL: 4190
TP: Same idea; prioritise partial profit-taking as price moves back into upper resistance.
Lana will wait for price to retrace into one of these two areas before considering an entry, avoiding FOMO buys while candles are moving aggressively.
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView to receive gold updates early. 💛
Gold intra-day selling opportunity showed after Fibo & OB bounceXAUUSD (Gold/US Dollar).
Timeframe: 15-minute chart (15m).
Trend Context: The price experienced several increase and decrease but made an imbalance on 1H timeframe yesterday, and it's probably going to decline till closing the FVG on 1h.
There is a major ascending orange trendline acting as dynamic support. The price recently tapped this line and bounced, creating the current upward retracement, but in the last 4 hours, it is showing a probability to break this line down.
I see what I see depending on several reasons:
1. ChoCh (Change of Character) indicating a structural shift that often precedes a retracement or reversal.
2. Fibonacci & Key Levels
The price is trying to bounce back from the golden area of the recent bearish swing (high to low)
0.5 Level (Equilibrium): Located at 4203.330. The price is currently testing this area.
0.618 Level (Golden Zone): Located at 4206.995. This level acts as strong resistance and aligns with the entry zone.
3. Trade Setup (Short/Sell Idea)
The setup is a bearish continuation play, looking to short the market as it retraces into a supply zone.
The entry is just before the OB on 15 min
The target is set near the recent swing low, anticipating that the price will reject the Order Block and fall back down.
⚠️ Note
This is a technical outlook based on my POV to the chart. Always manage risk carefully and adapt if market conditions change
I would be grateful to get your feedback on this idea if you have any opinions to share.
✽ Improve your awareness to seek a great analysis ✔
@AbdullahTech ♾
Gold 1H – Will 4232 Liquidity Trigger Reversal or 4188 Hold Flow🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (10/12)
📈 Market Context
Gold trades inside a politically-driven liquidity landscape after former U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that rate-cut willingness will be his litmus test for selecting a new Fed Chair.
This comment injects uncertainty into interest-rate expectations, making markets sensitive to any shifts in forward guidance.
Higher-for-longer fears remain intact intraday, keeping gold capped below premium zones while liquidity builds on both edges.
On H1, price is compressing around mid-range with clean liquidity resting at 4232 above and 4188–4190 below—ideal sweep conditions before institutions commit to direction.
🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H)
Current Phase: Sideways compression after BOS + CHoCH sequence
Key Idea: Expect a sweep above 4230–4232 or below 4190–4188 before true displacement
Liquidity Zones & Triggers:
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 4230 – 4232 | SL 4240
• 🟢 BUY GOLD 4190 – 4188 | SL 4180
Institutional Flow Expectation:
sweep → MSS/CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG/OB retest → expansion
🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones)
🔴 SELL GOLD 4230 – 4232 | SL 4240
Rules:
✔ Price sweeps the liquidity cluster above 4230
✔ Bearish MSS/CHoCH on M5–M15
✔ Downside BOS + clean bearish displacement
✔ Entry via FVG refill or refined OB retest
Targets:
1. 4212
2. 4200
3. 4190
🟢 BUY GOLD 4190 – 4188 | SL 4180
Rules:
✔ Liquidity grab under 4190–4188
✔ Bullish MSS/CHoCH confirms demand takeover
✔ Upside BOS + impulsive displacement from discount
✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest
Targets:
1. 4205
2. 4220
3. 4230–4232
⚠️ Risk Notes
• Trump’s remarks may spark abrupt shifts in expectations → avoid entries without BOS + displacement
• Don’t chase candles inside the compression channel
• SL placement must respect structural invalidation
• Reduce exposure if volatility spikes during Fed-related headlines
📍 Summary
Today’s play revolves around two liquidity-driven scenarios:
• A 4232 sweep triggers bearish structure, delivering into 4200 → 4190
or
• A 4188 liquidity grab forms bullish MSS, expanding toward 4220 → 4232
Let structure confirm—SMC is reaction, not prediction. ⚡️
📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for more Smart Money breakdowns.
Possible long on GUSell side liquidity taken in order to force a break of structure.
this Stop Hunt gives a blueprint of where instituitions entered the market after collecting sell order and stop losses on buys(sell side liquidity).
Using this knowledge i have set pedning buy orders targeting the last major high, analysis done using H4 and H2 timeframes
XAUUSD – The 4.221 Zone Determines Direction Ahead of Fed ...XAUUSD – The 4.221 Zone Determines Direction Ahead of Fed
From my perspective, gold on 10/12 is in a "waiting to choose direction" phase:
The price is caught between the resistance zone of 4.221–4.239 and strong support at 4.166.
On the 45m chart, the current structure is a sideways top, following the previous upward move.
In the context of the Fed about to announce interest rates, I won't guess but will closely follow these two zones to make decisions.
🎯 Important Technical Zones
Main Resistance:
4.221 – 4.225: Fibo zone 0.236–0.382 and thick volume cluster.
4.239: extended resistance peak – if broken, the target is the 4.25x zone.
Strong Support:
4.166: "Strong support" zone on the chart – current range bottom.
Below 4.166, the 4.12x zone is the extended Fibo 1.618, where liquidity might be attracted if the market sells off deeply.
📌 Scenario 1 – Continued Uptrend (preferred if holding above 4.200)
If the price:
Holds firmly above 4.200,
Clearly breaks the 4.221–4.225 zone and closes a 45m candle above,
I will consider this a confirmation signal that buyers are regaining control.
Trading reference:
Buy when the price breaks & retests 4.221–4.225.
Temporary SL set below 4.210.
TP: 4.245 – 4.258 – 4.270.
As long as gold stands above 4.200, I prioritize the scenario of maintaining a bullish bias, viewing any pullback to 4.20x as a buying opportunity.
📌 Scenario 2 – Short-term Sell within the Range
If the price fails to break 4.221–4.239, leaving a cluster of pin candles with small bodies, I consider this a signal of exhaustion at the resistance zone:
Sell around 4.221–4.225 (up to 4.239 if there's a spike).
SL above 4.239.
TP: 4.190 – 4.176 – 4.166, deeper to 4.130 if selling pressure increases strongly.
This scenario is for short-term scalping/swing, going against the medium-term bullish bias, so volume must be tightly controlled.
1️⃣ Basic Context: Everyone Awaits the Fed
USD/CHF is trading steadily around 0.8060, reflecting the FX market's wait-and-see stance ahead of the Fed's decision.
Investors don't want to bet too heavily in one direction before the news, so gold tends to fluctuate within the range rather than breaking out immediately.
When the Fed announces interest rates and guidance, gold's volatility range can expand very quickly, sweeping through both resistance and support zones.
Therefore, I don't recommend entering large volume orders right before the Fed. The priority is to read price reactions at the 4.221 and 4.166 zones, then decide whether to increase or decrease positions.
2️⃣ My Plan
Above 4.221, holding price well: prioritize buying scenario on break, targeting 4.25x.
Failing to break 4.221, weak candles: consider short selling to 4.19x – 4.166.
If the price falls straight below 4.166, I will temporarily stay out, waiting for the market to create a new balance zone before planning further.
Each trade risks a maximum of 1–2% of the account, no widening SL during strong news phases.
If you find this perspective useful, follow the TradingView channel and leave a comment on whether you lean towards breaking above 4.221 or turning back from resistance – let's update after the Fed news.
XAUUSD – LANA MONITORS SUPPORT 4190–4199 BEFORE FED RATE CUT XAUUSD – LANA MONITORS SUPPORT 4190–4199 BEFORE FED RATE CUT
Fundamental Analysis
In the past year, Silver has increased by ~82%, Gold by ~58% – indicating that capital flow still favors the precious metals group.
The market is pricing in ~97% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps tomorrow, which is a supportive factor for gold in the medium term as yields decrease and the opportunity cost of holding gold is lower.
However, before the announcement, prices often fluctuate around short-term support – resistance zones, so Lana prioritizes trading based on technical price zones on M30.
Technical Analysis (M30 – support/resistance)
For gold to decline further, the nearest bottom around 4199 needs to be clearly broken.
Currently, the price is reacting around 4190, which is an important support zone: As long as this zone is not broken, gold still has the potential to rebound within the range.
Above is the resistance zone 4235–4238, coinciding with the previous FVG/resistance zone on the chart – suitable for watching to Sell if the price retraces.
Below, the 4164–4167 zone is the next support, also where Lana marks Buy scalping when the price sharply declines.
In summary: As long as the support is not completely broken, Lana still prioritizes Buying at the support zone.
The Sell scenario is only activated when the price retraces to a higher resistance zone.
Price Zones to Watch
Important Support: 4199 – 4190 (nearest bottom & short-term support)
4164 – 4167 (next Buy zone)
Resistance / Sell Watch Zone: 4235 – 4238
Trading Scenarios
⭐️ Scenario 1 – Sell at Resistance
Sell: 4235 – 4238
SL: 4243
TP: 4222 – 4205 – 4190
⭐️ Scenario 2 – Buy at Support
Buy: 4164 – 4167
SL: 4159
TP: 4182 – 4202 – 4225
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView for the earliest gold updates
Gold AnalysisWe have BSL in recent swing high & 4hr internal is bullish + market is respecting bullish poi.
So most probably we have expect next bullish move after trendline or ssl sweep. We can trade with scoob or ichoch confirmation.
Gold 1H – Will 4210 Reject Again or 4166 Ignite the Rally?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (09/12)
📈 Market Context
Gold continues to soften under $4,200 as rising US Treasury yields pressure bullion, with markets positioning ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision.
According to FXStreet, yields climbing intraday are capping gold’s upside, and sellers remain active below 4200 while participants wait for clarity on the Fed’s forward guidance.
This environment builds a liquidity-sensitive landscape, where institutions may engineer sweeps on both sides before committing to direction.
On H1, price oscillates cleanly between premium supply (4208–4210) and discount demand (4168–4166).
A valid push requires MSS → BOS → displacement from either extreme.
🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H)
Current Phase: Sideways compression after consecutive CHoCH shifts
Key Idea: Expect liquidity grabs above 4210 or under 4166 before real movement
Liquidity Zones & Triggers
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 4208 – 4210 | SL 4218
• 🟢 BUY GOLD 4168 – 4166 | SL 4158
Institutional Flow Expectation:
sweep → MSS/CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG/OB retest → expansion
🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones)
🔴 SELL GOLD 4208 – 4210 | SL 4218
Rules:
✔ Price taps premium zone (4208–4210)
✔ Bearish MSS/CHoCH confirmed on M5–M15
✔ Strong downside BOS + displacement
✔ Enter on FVG fill or refined supply OB retest
Targets:
1. 4185
2. 4175
3. 4168 – 4166
🟢 BUY GOLD 4168 – 4166 | SL 4158
Rules:
✔ Sweep under 4167 to collect sell-side liquidity
✔ Bullish MSS/CHoCH forms from discount
✔ Clean BOS + impulsive displacement upward
✔ Entry via bullish FVG fill or demand OB retest
Targets:
1. 4184
2. 4200
3. 4210
⚠️ Risk Notes
• Rising yields may generate deceptive spikes—avoid entries without BOS + displacement
• Do not chase price inside the compression range
• Keep SLs at structural invalidation, not arbitrary points
• Reduce exposure ahead of Fed-related volatility this week
📍 Summary
Today’s setup revolves around two institutional scenarios:
• A 4210 liquidity sweep triggers bearish structure → downside delivery toward 4166
or
• A 4166 liquidity grab forms bullish MSS → upside expansion back toward 4210
Let structure confirm.
Patience pays the trader—SMC reacts, never predicts. ⚡️
📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money breakdowns.
XAUUSD – H1 is in a correction phase, watch for sell ...XAUUSD – H1 is in a correction phase, watch for sell retracement – buy at Fibo + VAL zone
Gold is currently in a downtrend structure on H1, the current wave is just a retracement in the downtrend after last weekend.
The important price zone to watch is around 4.164 – if this zone is not broken, the H1 downtrend remains intact. Below that, the market is "targeting" the 50% Fibo cluster + VAL zone around 4.125–4.132, where buy liquidity is concentrated.
🎯 SCENARIO 1 – SELL RETRACEMENT IN DOWN STRUCTURE
Sell: 4.208 – 4.212
SL: 4.216
TP: 4.190 – 4.176 – 4.150 – 4.130
Reason: 4.208–4.212 is the timing sell zone on the chart:
Confluence with the nearest resistance zone of H1.
Located just above the "strong support" zone that was breached, now acting as new resistance.
If the price retraces here, I prioritize selling in line with the H1 downtrend, targeting the bottom zone 4.19x – 4.176, deeper to 4.150–4.130 near the Fibo bottom zone.
⭐️ SCENARIO 2 – BUY AT BUY ZONE FIBO + VAL 4.125–4.132
Buy: 4.125 – 4.132
SL: below 4.132 (according to personal capital management, I do not allow the price to break deeply into this zone)
TP: 4.155 – 4.190 – 4.225
Reason: The 4.125–4.132 zone is the Buy zone confluence of VAL + 50% Fibonacci of the previous uptrend, also where the volume profile shows a large volume of transactions.
If after the sell wave, the price sweeps here and a clear bounce reaction appears, I consider this the zone to start accumulating BUY positions for the retracement up to 4.155–4.19x, further to 4.225.
1️⃣ Basic Context – Fed and Rate Cut Expectations
The probability of the Fed cutting 25bps in the upcoming meeting continues to rise sharply:
FedWatch: ~89.4%
Polymarket: ~95%
This indicates that the market is almost pricing in a loosening decision, creating a positive foundation for gold in the medium term, although short-term deep corrections may still occur due to profit-taking and position restructuring.
In summary: macro supports gold, but H1 is still in a correction phase; instead of bottom-fishing mid-way, I choose to sell retracement at resistance zones, buy at clear Fibo + VAL zones.
2️⃣ Action Plan & Risk Management
Only trade at defined zones Sell: 4.208–4.212, SL 4.216, TP 4.190–4.176–4.150–4.130.
Buy: 4.125–4.132, SL below 4.132, TP 4.155–4.190–4.225.
Do not enter orders between the 4.16x–4.19x zone, avoid being "whipsawed" in the sideways wave of the retracement.
For each scenario, the maximum risk is 1–2% of the account, do not widen SL even when Fed news is about to be released.
If you find this perspective useful, follow the TradingView account and leave a comment on whether you lean towards sell retracement or wait for deep buy at the Fibo zone today – I always read feedback before posting the next article.
XAUUSD – LANA TRACKS ELLIOTT WAVE 5, PRIORITIZES SELLING ...XAUUSD – LANA TRACKS ELLIOTT WAVE 5, PRIORITIZES SELLING TOWARDS 4130
1. Fundamental Analysis
International capital is pouring into Japanese Government Bonds (JGB), accounting for ~65% of monthly transactions.
When the BOJ reduces bond purchases, JGB yields climb to multi-decade highs, turning Japan into a new source of "volatility export" for the global financial market.
Every capital withdrawal or reversal on JGB can spread to currency and commodity markets, including gold.
In this context, Lana prioritizes viewing gold through the lens of Elliott waves + liquidity, considering current increases mainly as technical rebounds in a deeper corrective structure.
2. Technical Analysis
On the M30 frame, Lana is monitoring the declining Elliott wave 5 structure:
The area around 4200 is acting as the end of wave 4, after which the price gradually weakens.
Wave 5 is expected to head towards the strong support area of 4128–4135, coinciding with the large demand box below.
Two intermediate support areas: 4164 – where the chart notes "Buy scalping".
4153 – an important bottom area and sellside liquidity.
4176–4178 is currently a short-term bottom: if decisively broken, Lana considers this a confirmation signal for wave 5 expansion.
3. Price Areas to Watch
Near resistance: Retest area around 4184–4187 (after breaking the bottom, it may rebound to test).
Support & wave target: 4164 and 4153: intermediate support, likely to react.
4135 – 4130 – 4112: expected price area to complete wave 5 & liquidity below.
4. Trading Scenarios
⭐️ Main Scenario – Sell according to Elliott wave 5
Condition: Only Sell when the price breaks and confirms the bottom 4176–4178.
Sell: below the area 4176–4178 (can wait for a retest around 4180–4184 for a better entry).
SL: 4184
TP: 4155 – 4130 – 4112
⭐️ Secondary Scenario – Short-term Buy scalping
Buy scalping: 4164
Target: short rebound of 10–15 points, suitable for quick trades, not holding positions for long.
This week, Lana maintains a primary Sell mindset, all Buy orders are only for scalping to catch rebounds, not against the main trend.
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView to receive the earliest gold updates directly on your phone. 💛
XAUUSD – LANA PRIORITIZES SELLING ACCORDING TO ELLIOTT WAVE ...XAUUSD – LANA PRIORITIZES SELLING ACCORDING TO ELLIOTT WAVE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
Fundamental Analysis
During the quantitative easing (QE) phase, the Fed injects money into the system by purchasing bonds, filling the liquidity "reservoir" and typically supporting asset prices, including gold.
Conversely, with quantitative tightening (QT), the Fed gradually shrinks its balance sheet, withdrawing cash from the market, making financial conditions tighter.
Currently, with QT concluded, the Fed is essentially signaling:
This is the "minimum" liquidity level they deem safe,
Mitigating the risk of repeating a liquidity shock like in 2019.
This helps reduce tightening pressure on gold in the medium term, but in the short term, prices are still in a technical correction phase, so Lana prioritizes trading according to the Elliott wave rather than chasing news.
Technical Analysis – Elliott Wave on M30
On the M30 frame, gold is in a corrective wave C structure, possibly the final phase of the current pattern.
The previous wave 5 showed signs of a truncated wave, failing to create a new sustainable peak, indicating that buying momentum has weakened.
At the beginning of the week, prices continue to sweep Buy liquidity but fail to maintain upward momentum, reflecting the current weak buying sentiment.
Below, the 4128–4135 zone is important – both a support area and where Lana expects wave C to complete if the downward phase extends.
With such a structure, Lana's plan this week is to prioritize Selling, following the wave C phase instead of trying to catch the bottom early.
Price Zones to Watch
Sell Retracement Zone:
4215 – 4218 (Main Entry)
Target & Lower Liquidity Zones: 4192 – 4175 – 4164: intermediate liquidity points along the way.
4135 – 4130: expected price zone to complete wave C (matching the 4128–4135 zone on the chart).
Trading Scenario
⭐️ Main Scenario – Sell according to Elliott wave C
Sell entry: 4215 – 4218
Maximum SL: 4220
TP: Minimum: +20 points from entry
Extend according to the wave: zone 4135 – 4130 if the market completes the full correction phase
This week, Lana will not prioritize early bottom buying, but will wait until prices approach the 4128–4135 zone and clearer signals appear before reconsidering.
👉 Follow Lana on TradingView for the latest updates on major gold waves.
Gold 1H – Will 4232 Trap Liquidity or 4170 Spark Expansion?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (08/12)
📈 Market Context
Gold trades inside politically-driven liquidity as Donald Trump signals that the current method of tariffing through the US Supreme Court is “more direct, less cumbersome, and much faster.”
This introduces fresh uncertainty for USD flows, increasing short-term volatility across commodities.
Expect engineered sweeps on both sides as institutions react to policy-sensitive sentiment shifts.
On H1, price compresses between premium supply (4230–4232) and discount demand (4170–4168).
A confirmed MSS + BOS + displacement is required before any directional leg becomes valid.
🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H)
Current Phase: Liquidity-rich compression inside a minor bullish channel
Key Idea: Sweeps first, real move later
Liquidity Zones & Triggers
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 4230 – 4232 | SL 4240
• 🟢 BUY GOLD 4172 – 4170 | SL 4162
Bias shifts only via structural break + clean displacement.
Expected Institutional Sequence:
sweep → MSS/CHoCH → BOS → displacement → FVG/OB retest → expansion
🎯 Execution Rules (matching your exact zones)
🔴 SELL GOLD 4230 – 4232 | SL 4240
Rules:
✔ Price taps 4231–4232 → bearish MSS/CHoCH on M5–M15
✔ BOS down + strong displacement candle
✔ Entry on bearish FVG fill / supply OB retest
Targets:
1. 4200
2. 4185
3. 4170
🟢 BUY GOLD 4172 – 4170 | SL 4162
Rules:
✔ Sweep below 4169 → bullish MSS/CHoCH
✔ BOS up + displacement from discount
✔ Entry on FVG fill or refined OB retest
Targets:
1. 4186
2. 4210
3. 4230 – 4232
⚠️ Risk Notes
• Headlines may induce fake sweeps; do not pre-commit without BOS + displacement
• No averaging inside compression
• SLs must sit at structural invalidation
• Reduce risk during tariff-related spikes
📍 Summary
Today’s playbook offers two institutional paths:
• 4231 sweep → bearish MSS → BOS → retest → delivery into 4170
or
• 4169 sweep → bullish MSS → BOS → retest → expansion back toward 4230+
Trade confirmations only.
Let gold show its hand — patience is your edge. ⚡️
📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money breakdowns.
XAUUSD – Volume Profile: Sell at VAH, Buy at POC within a widE..XAUUSD – Volume Profile: Sell at VAH, Buy at POC within a wide range
Gold is trading within a fairly large range on H1, with prices hesitating after last weekend's drop. The current phase is essentially a retracement wave in the H1 downtrend, so I prioritize trading according to the liquidity zones of the Volume Profile rather than guessing a new trend.
Prices are approaching VAH – the high-value area, and below is the POC cluster + rising channel support – the two main zones for my decision today.
🎯 SCENARIO 1 – SELL AT VAH / SUPPLY ZONE
Sell: 4.221 – 4.223
SL: 4.228
TP: 4.212 – 4.200 – 4.178 – 4.150
Logic: VAH on H1 is around 4.22x, coinciding with the resistance zone above the small rising channel.
This is also the area where strong selling pressure previously pushed prices back into the value zone, so if prices retest and form weak candles (long upper wick, small body), I prioritize short-term selling according to the retracement wave.
The TP levels are sequentially: bottom of the balance zone (4.212), bottom of the range (4.200), and deeper liquidity bottoms 4.178 – 4.150.
This order aligns with the H1 retracement phase but still goes against the larger uptrend, so I maintain a moderate volume, with a hard SL at 4.228.
⭐️ SCENARIO 2 – BUY AT POC / CHANNEL SUPPORT
Buy: 4.193 – 4.195
SL: 4.187
TP: 4.210 – 4.235 – 4.260
Logic: The 4.193–4.195 area is the POC – the center of the large volume zone, also coinciding with the rising channel support line and short-term support zone.
If after selling down from VAH, prices touch the POC again and show clear buying support, I see this as an intraday reversal point to buy back according to the channel range.
Target to return to the middle of the channel (4.210), then the old upper boundary 4.235–4.260.
This scenario takes advantage of the fact that large capital flows often protect the POC, especially when there is no strong negative news to completely break the structure.
1️⃣ Brief Macro Context
Global capital flows are trending towards other risky assets like Chinese stocks, benefiting from AI, economic recovery expectations, and low valuations. MSCI China has surged this year, surpassing the S&P 500.
In commodities, Goldman Sachs still forecasts NYMEX natural gas prices at $4.50/MMBtu by summer 2026, indicating that major investors maintain a positive outlook on the commodity group.
In summary, risk-on does not eliminate the role of gold, but causes gold to fluctuate widely according to rotating capital flows, making it more suitable for trading strategies at clear volume/liquidity zones rather than holding one-sided expectations.
2️⃣ Technical View & Execution Plan
H1: prices are moving within a slight rising channel, but the entire structure is still within the retracement wave of the previous decline.
VAH 4.22x: where sellers have a short-term advantage, suitable for the Sell test VAH scenario.
POC 4.19x + support zone: where buyers are likely to appear to protect the channel.
Plan: Only enter orders at the defined zones, no FOMO in the range.
Risk for each scenario is limited to 1–2% of the account, no widening SL:
Sell wrong above 4.228 → exit, wait for a new structure.
Buy wrong below 4.187 → stay out, don't try to "catch a falling knife."
If prices break strongly out of both VAH and POC and hold stable, I will stop these two scenarios and update my view.
If you find this scenario useful, please follow the account on TradingView and leave a comment on whether you prioritize Sell VAH or Buy POC today – I always read feedback before writing the next article.
🇺🇸 BULLISH ANALISIS- GOLD BREAKDOWN – XAU/USD
📌 1. Liquidity Sweep + Institutional Discount
The market completed a deep retracement that fully mitigated all the sell-side liquidity zone.
This allows institutions to accumulate long positions at discount prices.
A CHoCH + BOS sequence confirms that the bearish leg has finished.
📌 2. Fake-Out + Rejection at the POI (4,202)
Price delivered a clean fake-out, grabbed liquidity, and immediately rejected from the POI.
This rejection is a strong sign of institutional absorption.
The POI is aligned with:
✔ Discount zone
✔ Support
✔ Previous imbalance
👉 A high-probability entry is formed.
📌 3. Bullish Targets (Mitigation & Liquidity)
The upside roadmap is clear and progressive:
• TP1: 4,230 → first mitigation
• TP2: 4,254 → liquidity resting above
• TP3: 4,277 → full mitigation of imbalance + expected HH
Price is targeting the FVG on the 4H timeframe.
This is where institutions are expected to complete mitigation.
📌 4. Risk Management
SL at 4,180 protects the structure:
• Below support zone
• Below rejection wick
• Below liquidity
👉 If price breaks that level, the narrative changes.
🧮 Risk/Reward: 1:3
Excellent ratio aligned with institutional swing logic.
No forcing, clean and natural. GOOD LUCK TRADERS…
GOLD M15 OUTLOOKGold (XAUUSD) on the M15 timeframe is currently executing a textbook technical maneuver: price is tapping into a key Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) zone. This zone, derived from Fibonacci retracement theory, represents a high-probability reversal area where institutional order flow often clusters. The setup is promising, but the key to transforming this potential into profit lies in one disciplined step: waiting for Lower Time Frame (LTF) confirmation before initiating any buy trade.
USDJPY H1 OUTLOOKThe USDJPY pair is currently approaching a significant Point of Interest (POI) on the higher timeframes. For proactive traders, this presents a classic "wait and confirm" scenario. The market is giving us a clear heads-up: a major reaction is likely upon the test of this level. Our plan is not to predict, but to prepare—to patiently wait for the POI tap and seek Lower Time Frame (LTF) confirmation for a potential sell trade.
Gold 1H – Will 4242 Displace or 4170 Unlock the Next Leg?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (04/12)
📈 Market Context
Gold squeezes into engineered liquidity as Donald Trump signals policy authorization for ultra-compact car production in the U.S., adding risk-on volatility to USD narratives. Markets may front-run sentiment shifts into commodities like gold. Expect fast bilateral sweeps before institutions reveal intent.
On H1, structure toggles between premium supply at 4242–4244 and discount demand at 4170–4168. The next directional leg requires MSS + BOS + displacement confluence.
🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (1H)
Current Phase = liquidity-rich compression at H1 extremes
Liquidity Zones & Key Triggers
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 4242 – 4244 | SL 4252
• 🟢 BUY GOLD 4170 – 4168 | SL 4160
Bias invalidation only via structure break + displacement validation.
Expected Sequence = Sweep → MSS/CHoCH → BOS → Displacement → Retest → Expansion
🎯 Execution Rules (unchanged methodology, matching your zones)
🔴 SELL GOLD 4242 – 4244 | SL 4252
Rules:
✔ Zone tap 4243 → bearish MSS/CHoCH (M5–M15)
✔ Clean bearish BOS down + candle displacement
✔ Entry on FVG fill or OB retest after displacement
Targets:
1. 4200 – 4190
2. 4182 – 4176
3. 4170 – 4168
🟢 BUY GOLD 4170 – 4168 | SL 4160
Rules:
✔ Sweep under 4169 → bullish MSS/CHoCH + BOS up
✔ Displacement candle away from discount
✔ Wick rejection into FVG fill / OB retest confirm
Targets:
1. 4186
2. 4210
3. 4242+
⚠️ Risk Notes
• Both sweeps = traps until BOS + Displacement confirms intent
• No averaging inside compression
• SL = structural invalidation only
• Reduce size during headline-driven spikes
📍 Summary
Two institutional paths today:
• 4243 sweep → bearish MSS/BOS → retest → delivery into 4170
or
• 4169 sweep → bullish MSS/BOS → retest → expansion into 4242+
Trade the structure. Let price narrate the intent. Patience = edge. 🚀
📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money breakdowns.
LONG POSITION ON CADJPYClear push to the upside pending, Liquidity below must be collected first in order to make a push to the upside.
1;10 rr for the first entry
1;20 rr for the second entry
used SMC to analyse with heavy bias on where liquidity is
SEE LIQUIDITY OR BE THE LIQUIDITY
XAUUSD – Ahead of NFP: buy according to Wolfe Wave, watch for ..XAUUSD – Ahead of NFP: buy according to Wolfe Wave, watch for sell in the expansion area
Gold continues its upward momentum as the USD weakens significantly, breaking the downtrend line and forming a Wolfe Wave pattern on H1.
The price is currently fluctuating around the POC – VAH cluster of the distribution area, making it easy for a price reaction to occur before the NFP is released.
During this period, I prioritize buying according to the main trend, but still prepare a short-term sell scenario in the overly high price area if the market "blows" too much before the news.
🎯 Scenario 1 – PRIORITY BUY AT POC/VAH
Buy: 4.209 – 4.212
SL: 4.205
TP: 4.233 – 4.260 – 4.299
Reason: The price is retesting the POC – VAH cluster right after breaking above the downtrend line.
The Wolfe Wave pattern targets a higher price area, suitable for the continuation of the upward trend scenario.
The 4.209–4.212 area is a region with good liquidity, allowing for a short SL but still attractive R:R.
🔁 Scenario 2 – SELL REACTION IN HIGH PRICE AREA
Sell (only enter when there is a clear reversal signal): 4.323 – 4.325
SL: 4.333
Reference TP: 4.299 – 4.260 – 4.233
Reason: The 4.323–4.325 area is the upper expansion area, coinciding with the resistance of the Wolfe Wave and the old supply area.
If before NFP the price is "pushed" to this area but H1 candles show long upper shadows, weakening volume, I see this as an opportunity to sell against the wave back to the POC/support areas below.
This is a counter-trend order, the volume should be small, enter-exit decisively.
1️⃣ Fundamental view before NFP
The USD is trying to recover from the late October bottom but is held back by expectations that the Fed will soon turn dovish.
Recent data shows the US economy is cooling down, the labor market is slowing, increasing the likelihood of the Fed cutting 25bps in the upcoming FOMC meeting.
The Government Accountability Office opens an investigation with the "Fed critic," while Mr. Hassett states that the Fed may cut rates – all reinforcing the "peak rate has passed" narrative.
Job cuts according to the Challenger report decreased sharply compared to the previous month, but overall the picture still shows growth is slowing, suitable for a medium-term gold-supportive environment.
In summary: fundamental news still leans towards supporting gold, NFP only determines the speed and depth of the adjustment, not "breaking the trend" unless the discrepancy is too extreme.
2️⃣ Technical analysis from the chart
H1 shows gold has broken the downtrend line, returning to trade above the POC area of the previous decline.
Wolfe Wave appears with a target higher than the current price area, reinforcing the buy wave view.
The price is clinging around POC – VAH: If it holds above 4.209–4.212, it is likely to head towards 4.26x–4.29x.
If strongly rejected at 4.32x before or after NFP, this is a favorable area to watch for a sell reaction.
3️⃣ Plan & risk management
Prioritize BUY scenario 4.209–4.212, SL 4.205, TP 4.233–4.260–4.299.
Only activate SELL scenario 4.323–4.325 if:
If NFP causes too wide price fluctuations, prioritize waiting for the price to stabilize around POC before setting up again.
If this perspective helps you shape your plan before NFP, follow the TradingView account and leave a comment
