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SOL: waiting for the push into 78s to short the pullback to 74.7This is a pullback trade inside an uptrend, not a call for the uptrend to end. The distinction
decides both the entry and the stop, so it goes first.
WHAT THE CHART SAYS
Spot 76.73, down 0.42% on the session.
Regime reads uptrend, and strong: ADX(14) at 29.0 is well clear of the 20 line where trend becomes
real. RSI(14) 61.6 is firm without being stretched. ATR is 1.05% of price.
The band for the next 24h: core 50% at 74.71 - 78.57, wide 80% at 73.22 - 80.14, median 76.38. Core
width is 5.0% of price, the wide zone 9.0%. This reading is regime-matched - 317 windows of 1,000
selected for a comparable volatility state, 13 of them independent.
Thirteen independent windows is a small sample, and it belongs in the open rather than in a
footnote. It is enough to shape a range; it is not enough to argue about the third decimal.
WHY NOT SHORT HERE
Because the arithmetic says no. From 76.73 with a stop above 79.00, the trade risks 2.96% to make
2.59%. That is paying more than you collect, and no amount of conviction repairs a ratio like that.
Shorting into an ADX of 29 is counter-trend by definition. That is survivable when the entry is
good and fatal when it is not, which is why this idea waits instead of acting.
THE ENTRY THIS SETUP IS WAITING FOR
A push into 78.0 - 78.5, the upper part of the core zone.
From 78.20 with a stop above 79.00, the same target becomes 1.02% of adverse room against 4.42% of
reward, roughly 1:4.3. Identical view, identical target, one number moved - and the trade changes
from unacceptable to worth taking.
The stop sits above 78.57, the upper boundary of the core zone. A close above it means price is
working the top half of the distribution rather than rejecting from it, and the premise is gone.
THE TARGET
74.74, which is the lower boundary of the core zone at 74.71. Not a round number and not an
extension: it is the level where a move from the top of the range to the bottom of it is complete,
and past which the probability that carried the trade has been spent.
Below there is the wide 80% zone down to 73.22. That is risk context, not a second target.
WHAT WOULD MAKE THIS WRONG
An expansion above 78.57 that holds. In a strong trend the pullback that never comes is the normal
outcome, not the surprise, and a counter-trend idea that keeps lowering its entry to stay involved
is how a small planned loss becomes a large unplanned one.
The other way to be wrong is impatience. The whole edge here is in the 1.5 points between shorting
now and shorting the push, and that edge disappears the moment the entry is taken early.
HOW THE BAND IS BUILT
Empirical quantiles of actual 24h moves, not sigma times root-t. Root-t assumes independent normal
returns, which crypto does not deliver: the excess kurtosis lives in the extremes, so a normal
curve runs too wide day to day and only converges at longer horizons.
The band is a distribution, not a path. The direction in this idea is mine, taken from where price
sits inside that distribution and from what the ratio allows.
Educational content - not financial advice. Short 
SOL/USDT 2H — Professional Technical Analysis 🚀 SOL/USDT 2H — Professional Technical Analysis 📊🔥
🧭 Market Structure
SOL/USDT is currently showing a clear bullish structure on the 2H timeframe. After forming a strong recovery from the 70.60 support, price established higher lows and higher highs, confirming improving buyer strength.
The market recently pushed through the marked Change of Character (CHoCH) around 76.20, which is an important structural development. Holding above this area keeps the short-term bullish scenario valid.
📈 Bullish Momentum
The recent upside move has been supported by strong buying pressure, with price advancing from the lower part of the ascending structure toward the 77.40 area.
The rising trendline and higher-low formation suggest that buyers are maintaining control. However, after such a sharp move, a short-term pullback or retest would be technically healthier than chasing price at current levels.
🟣 Key Order Block
The 75.40–75.80 region is the key order-block area marked on the chart.
If price retraces into this zone and buyers defend it with bullish rejection, it could provide a favorable continuation setup.
A successful retest would strengthen the possibility of another move toward the upper resistance area.
🎯 Upside Targets
The main resistance is located around 79.69.
Potential bullish objectives:
🎯 TP1: 78.50
🎯 TP2: 79.00
🎯 TP3: 79.69 — Major Resistance
A decisive breakout and 2H close above 79.69 could open the door for further upside, while rejection from this level could lead to a temporary correction.
⚠️ Risk & Invalidation
The bullish scenario becomes weaker if SOL loses the 75.40–75.80 order-block zone with strong bearish momentum.
A sustained move below this area would suggest that the recent breakout is losing strength and that a deeper retracement could develop.
The broader structural support remains around 70.60, which is the major support marked on the chart.
🧠 Professional Conclusion
SOL/USDT remains bullish on the 2H timeframe. 📈🔥 The CHoCH breakout, rising structure, and strong momentum favor buyers. However, price is already extended after the recent rally, so the more disciplined approach is to wait for a pullback toward the order block and confirmation before considering a long position.
As long as the 75.40–75.80 zone holds, the path toward 78.50 and ultimately 79.69 resistance remains technically favored.
📌 Bias: Bullish 🟢
📍 Key Zone: 75.40–75.80
🎯 Major Target: 79.69
🛡️ Invalidation: Sustained break below the order block Long 
Long 
Short 
SOLUSDT - Bear Flag, Is a Breakdown?📊 Technical Analysis
💰 Coin: CRYPTOCAP:SOL #SOL
⏳ Time Frame: 1D
📉 Pattern: 🐻 Bear Flag
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🐻📉 What's Happening?
The SOL/USDT chart is currently forming a 🐻 Bear Flag, a classic bearish continuation pattern that typically appears after a sharp decline (🚩 Flagpole), followed by an upward consolidation within an Ascending Channel before potentially continuing its downward trend.
📌 What we can see on the chart:
🔻 A strong 🚩 Flagpole was formed after the sharp sell-off in early June.
📈 Since then, price has been moving gradually higher within an 📐 Ascending Channel, creating a 🐻 Bear Flag pattern.
⚠️ Price is now approaching the 🔴 Lower Trendline, which is the most critical area to determine the next major move.
📉 The overall market structure continues to form Lower Highs, indicating that sellers remain in control.
💥 So far, there is no strong bullish signal capable of reversing the primary bearish trend.
🎯 As long as the price remains inside this pattern, selling pressure continues to dominate.
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🐻📉 Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
⚠️ If the price breaks down and closes below the Lower Trendline of the Bear Flag, the pattern could be officially confirmed.
📏 The downside target is typically measured using the height of the 🚩 Flagpole, suggesting there is still significant room for further correction.
🎯 The nearest major support is located around 🟢 $60, which also corresponds to the previous swing low.
📊 A breakdown accompanied by strong trading volume would significantly increase the probability of a continued bearish trend.
🔻 Unless key resistance levels are reclaimed, sellers are expected to maintain control.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢🚀 Bullish Scenario
✅ A bullish scenario will begin to develop if the price can:
📈 🟢 Hold above the Lower Trendline of the Bear Flag.
🚀 📊 Break above the Upper Channel Resistance.
💪 🔥 Successfully break through the key resistance around 🔴 $82.50.
🎯 🚀 A much stronger bullish confirmation would occur if the price reclaims 🔴 $97.50, invalidating the 🐻 Bear Flag pattern.
⚠️ Until those breakout confirmations occur, any upward movement should still be considered a 📈 Relief Rally within the broader bearish trend.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📍🎯 Key Levels
🟢 Major Support: ≈ $60
🔴 First Resistance: $82.50
🚧 Major Resistance: $97.50
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📌⚠️ Conclusion
📉 The Bear Flag remains the dominant pattern on the Daily Time Frame.
🐻 As long as the price continues trading within the channel and fails to break above the major resistance levels, the probability of a Breakdown remains higher than that of a Breakout.
👀 Traders should closely monitor the 🔴 Lower Trendline, as this area could determine SOL's next major directional move.
✅ Always wait for candle close confirmation and trading volume before making any trading decisions.
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#SOL #SOLUSDT #BearFlag #Bearish #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #Crypto #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #Altcoins #Support #Resistance #ChartAnalysis #CryptoMarket Long 
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