Today I have a special chart showing the S&P 500 (SPX) on a monthly basis using the Wall St Cheat Sheet.
I added in my bottom target range for this bear market cycle as well as multiple support and resistance areas, and a multi-year trend line. Once the price goes below the multi-year trend line, the Denial phase onward will begin in my opinion.
This is a...
On the 3rd of January I posted this exact same chart with the general idea being that price has been incredibly cyclical for some time. It was starting to look like a higher probability of a changing trend and I explained clearly what my drivers were to make that assumption. We are now outside of the trend channel and my scenario of a 4410 target being reached is...
With the S&P 500 averaging a 14.3 percent annual return over the 10-year period from early 2012 through 2021, investors were in for a nasty surprise when the broad U.S. 500 index ended 2022 down 19.4 percent. To say that pessimism is very high now would probably be an accurate assessment, as things continue to get worse because of expectations of a recession.
So,...
If we held above $400 it would signal a larger move up. Likelihood of that happening is quite low in my opinion. With a big week of low expected earnings, possible negative news coming from Powell, and many companies looking lacklustre with weak guidance, I expect that we can see a strong rejection of the $400 level.
Closed one put already from $399 to $396 and...
The first quarter of 2023 looks less bearish at this moment. Allow me to walk you through what I see and how I come to my conclusion.
1. There is a clear downward trend channel that started on the 4th of January 2022. That is a one-year long bearish trend. When I see such trend channels, I look for signs to see whether the trend is strengthening or weakening.
2....
I've been frustrated trying to figure out what the s&p500 is doing as it won't crash and won't recover. I think it might actually be forming a diamond bottom pattern: thepatternsite.com
This is a pretty accurate sign of a bottom. It's likely to fully recover, so if it starts breaking upward don't question it. Good luck!
Following the recent oil selloff the XLE sector is now pulling back. With a clear divergence in the RSI with the 3 recent price tops, it seems like the XLE has completed 5 waves up. Following that is a 3 wave correction as a flat and is now preparing to finish the last leg of it, before exploding higher sometime next year.
Good morning traders!
We previously explained how in both our two main scenarios we believe S&P500 will complete the bearish wolfe wave in 3600-3650 area.
We are leaning towards the scenario for which we should be in wave 3 of (C) and thus we should be directed towards a lower low.
Our short positions are still in place, average entry @3990.2 and stop loss @4016...
S&P started the year bullish putting in a higher low on our daily chart and after reaching the trend line(that is the talking point in all analyses) corrected slightly.
At this moment the price is flirting with 4k figure and a break up seems very probable.
In such an instance 4.2-4.3k zone becomes in focus for the short term.
P.S: For the long term, on the other...
Hello traders!
We are now going for a full breakdown on the situation on the two main us indexes: sp500 and nasdaq100.
As per our previous sequence on post, we believe there are two possible scenarios in place.
First scenario:
The index is still finishing cycle correction and is in wave 3 of C pointing to new lows.
This was our main scenario and will be...
Japan's Real Estate and Stock Market Bubble
In the present day, asset bubbles sometimes are fuelled by overly stimulative monetary policy. Japan's economic bubble of the 1980s is a classic example. The yen's 50% surge in the early 1980s triggered a Japanese recession in 1986, and to counter it, the government ushered in a program of monetary and fiscal...
Although, in my opinion, there is not any fundamental reason behind it, SP500 could start rising in this first part of the year.
There is a very good saying between traders: "trade what you see, not what you think" and, what I see are 3 weeks of rejection from the 3800 zone.
With this in mind, if this 3800 low remains intact, we can have a nice rise from SP500...
The correlation between the SP500 index and the volatility index in the daily timeframe indicates a serious movement. With the volatility index falling further, SP500's coming to the trend follower level indicates an up or down movement.
With price rejection on the index observed last Friday, S&P500 bullish momentum is likely to extend into coming week which will cause the index to rally above the upper channel of the expending triangle. Another huddle for the index to overcome is the resistance at 4060 circa. Forecast is for the index to rise above the resistance level to re-test the swing high...
My analysis of SP500 is going to drop through the evening and through opening of NY Session tomorrow JAN 20. Waiting for confirmation on LTF for direct entry but this is a credible zone for a neutral position on the pair.
