Comfy in my long, already in a good profit, plan to close it soon.
As I expected index continues to rise with all these stimulus checks, Fed prints and markets FOMO.
Hit the "LIKE" button and follow to support, thank you!
Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
ES at the 4 hour view.
It's pretty obvious that today had some profit taking in the morning. However, the ES rallied in the afternoon due to 1) high liquidity levels where there were a lot of available buyers below and 2) eager bears who are trying to get their money back and covered their shorts again.
This is why you need to look at internal market data....
This is the ES at the 4 hour view.
The ES has been in a multi-day ascending wedge for the past 6 trading days. Ascending wedge end in two ways.
1) Blow off top pattern - The price can skyrocket temporarily, plateau, then fall rapidly. This is the more volatile and profitable scenario. If it chooses this direction, then you can easily scalp the rise then scalp...
If you look at the S&P 500 not in its home currency USD,
which is revalued and devalued according to the FED's needs,
but in the mixed basket of world currencies DXY
normalized with its average over the past decades of roughly 92
you get in my opinion a much clearer picture
of what is going on and what could come.
Looking at the TVC:US10Y - TVC:US03MY and the AMEX:SPY it seems that during a recession like this TVC:US10Y - TVC:US03MY should rise and AMEX:SPY should fall.
Will it be the case this time as well or is this time different?
Maybe the FED cannot allow TVC:US10Y to rise this time due to the amount of debt and will instead impose yield curve control...
In order to see how I got here.. Please click on the Private Chart started in May. Let's take a walk on the wild side of the unknown for a minute.. Ponder this for a moment with me...
Amplify 2008-2013 Fractal by...
I have drawn an easy to understand technical chart of the S&P500, highlighting the major support and resistance areas from December to July, using a daily chart (each bar is 1 day of trading on the S&P500).
Notice on the left side of the chart all supports levels that broke, acted as resistance post FED bazooka and eventually turned back into support.
Not much has changed in the stock market. We are still in the same range. Based on the rejection we got last week, we can expect SP500 to test 32xx range (possibly even higher to form a double top near 3400). Advanced Decline Line broke higher than it was at the beginning of this year. That is bullish for the short-term. Based on cycles, we can expect trend...
SP500 is breaking out of a bullish accumulation pattern called the ascending triangle. It is important to wait for the price to make a pullback on this triangle.
But be careful, the market is very susceptible to bad news related to the virus, and the scenario can change at any moment.
It is worth noting that we are only 3.5% of ATH
We are still in the down trend wave count
You should not consider buying until the triangle is invalidated
It will be a big risk to buy before the invalidation of the bearish count.
I have shown the invalidation level
Choppy trading in SP500 continues. All declines were bought back quickly last week. It seems to be positive. However… Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this. It is negative in a short-term perspective. Based on cycle studies we can expect to get buy signal around 10 – 15 August. Till that time we will likely see more choppiness with a bias to the downside. I...
SPY is currently trading in a tight range between key dark pool levels. With big earnings week ahead, we could break out of this range and make a significant move ( direction TBD). The market has been trading with a huge bearish divergence in fundamentals, momentum, and volume for quite some time now so will be nice to see a good correction to key demand zones...