#CT_F $CT_F #Cotton - Bull spreadI built a calendar bull spread CTK19-CTN19. A possible entry is at the price -1,20 with SL -1,40 ($100/contract) and PT -0,50 ($350/contract).
Spread
Incredible extreme in NG Widow MakerThis spread is called the Widow Maker and right now, you can see why this spread has its nickname. The extreme becomes more and more extreme. However, we think now is a good time to sell this spread.
If you sell this spread then you are trading 2 things
sell March
buy April
The goal is that the spread is tightening again.
Italian spread crisis - 2019 Draft Budgetary PlanThe graph follows the spread between Italian BTP 10Y and German BUND 10Y with a timeline of the Italian government's announcement and the European Commission responses
10Y US/DE : Bond market distortion at historical bounderies...This is loooong term chart here, but the process in motion is a really dangerous one because it concerns the bond market that is supporting every bit of the investment process and credit liability throughout the market. This spread between german and US yielding is reaching long term dangerous levels of distortion and may lead to some credit troubles.
Hope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Kindly,
Phil
$XLF bullish credit spreadNew bullish credit spread on XLF (financials) for OCT 12! Not this Friday. Solid movement this morning in the market and financials is starting to show strength. Decided to take this move out two weeks to allow for the bottom to confirm and some bullish movement to occur.
Entry 27.79
Max profit 28.50
Break even 28.14
0.38:1 risk/reward
$XLB bullish credit spread!New bullish credit spread on XLB (materials). After two weeks of bearish movement on XLB, we saw a close above $57.92 support and a bullish open this morning. Looking for bullish to neutral movement this week.
Entry 58.54
Max profit 59.00
Break even 58.72
0.78:1 risk/reward
Adjusted the XLB bullish credit spread to add a bullish credit spread one strike higher.
Max profit 59.5
Break even 59.12
0.31:1 risk/reward
$XLK bullish credit spread for this #FridayHigh risk bullish credit spread on XLK . Solid gap down in tech this morning, but not showing signs of continuation bearish. This is one of the set-it and forget-it spreads as we will let it go all the way till exp.
Entry 74.33
Break even 74.72
Max profit 75
0.78:1 risk/reward
More info at wingtrades.com
ISM Play With Massive Alpha And Lots More To ComeSo this play is a complex spread that pits a strong machinery company and a strong retail / cons. disc. company against two weak chemical makers. While the play may initially not make much sense, the alpha here is generated from the comments that companies in these sectors made in the last ISM and NMI reports. Expected weakness in chemicals as input prices increase, and expected strength in consumer spending and capital investment by manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms alike. This spread is pitted perfectly for the current environment and is efficient as I could make it. I was in this morning @ 11.97, and plan to hold for an expected 30% upside from here. My stop on this one remains around 11. I may write some OTM calls on my longs here to even further increase the value here. DO NOT FORGET TO BETA-HEDGE.
Cheers,
Andrew
0d exp bearish credit spread on $SPYVery high risk (0d exp) bearish credit spread on SPY . With SPY pushing a new LoD, I like the probability of a red, or extremely red close.
Entry 290.76
Break even 290.79
Max profit 290.5
0.76:1 risk/reward
$GLD Bullish Credit SpreadGLD Bullish Credit Spread - Opened. We got our gap up this weekend as gold gets back above the 1200/oz mark. Looking for this momentum to continue.
Entry 113.66.
Break Even 113.33.
1.94:1 r/r
SPY Short ...still holding (SHORT SPY CALL SPREAD)Still holding on to these SPY SHORT CALL SPREAD that expire 8/22).
(Strike 285-284, 0.67cr
)
HISTORICAL SPREAD | Growth vis ValueGreen means growth is outperforming, red means value is outperforming...
#ZW_F $ZW_F #Wheat - Bear spreadBear spread ZWZ18-ZWU18. I wait for a correction and a spread price about 19,0. SL 17,0 ($100/contract], PT 24,0 ($250/contract).
SpreadCoin Might Gain 50%SpreadCoin found the bottom at $0.23, that has been tested on the 13th of June. Since then price went up and today breaking above the 200 Moving Average, not to mention that price produce a new higher high.
This could be the beginning of a corrective wave up, or even a trend reversal. The very strong resistance is near $0.5 area, that is confirmed by two Fibonacci retracement levels applied through the two highs established on 30th of April and 23 of May. If the resistance will be reached, SPR/USD will gain over 50% and this could happen in a very near future.
The downside risk at this point is very low, however it SPR will go below already established support at $0.23, bears could once again begin to dominate this SpreadCoin.
#OJ_F $OJ_F #OrangeJuice - Bear spreadThere could come a correction in a Orange Juice market. COT confirms an overbought state, so if it comes, I am looking for an entry around 0,0 in a bear spread OJX18-OJU18. SL 0,5 ($75/contract), PT 2,0 ($300/contract).
#ZC_F $ZC_F #Corn bear spreadBear spread ZCN19-ZCZ19. I have opened a position at 16. SL is set at 14, PT 20.
NZD/JPYLast lesson for today. I want to catch something moving in a direction, after it pulls back and starts to continue, based on wave theory and fibonacci, among other things, of course. When you trade something going in a direction u can wind up in this......(a diagonal usually indicating price reversal, at least this type)...Just put your stop above the high right? Nope. The reason it pulls back so close to the high but doesn't break it is because they want to create the illusion that you can set a stop above the high and let it run.... But the spread will get it.....Hehehe... I'm still on the buy though until structure changes.
Oil - Possible 69-74 RangingI have been waiting for prices to break up into a 69.37-74.14 range and based on current prices action along with 2014 broken support levels, believe we may see extended sideways action in this range, for several weeks, if prices do indeed break upwards. With the Brent/Crude spread in excess of 4 dollars we are still favoring exports; along with potential Iran sanctions and heated geopolitics the aptitude for a higher Crude breakup is strong in my opinion.
On the chart I show 3 zones where I will be Shorting the Supply Zone , Buying Long the Demand Zone and taking either full or half profits in the Middle PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone):
1. Supply Zone 73.23-73.70
2. Middle PRZ 70.86-71.16
3. Demand Zone 68.90-69.37
I will be setting a BUY STOP at the 68.90 level to INITIATE this Long trade and will take half profits in the Middle PRZ. I will re-add those closed Long positions if price drops back to the Demand Zone . I will close all positions and enter Short in the Supply Zone and vice versa on the way down. NOTE: I do believe that prices will test a bit higher than the Supply Zone but think it will be short lived so a better Risk/Reward short entry at the top may initially be 74.00-74.50 but in lieu of historical price action I believe upper swings in this overall range are more apt to get sold in the Supply Zone. I will continue Selling the Supply Zone and Buying the Demand Zone until I see signs of a larger breakup or breakdown. If this range does indeed play out I am hoping that we see 8 or more weeks of price swings (See the May-July 2015 range and Dec 2016-March 2017 range).
Below I show price structure in this same range looking directly left; 2010 shows strong price action where I've marked the Supply Zone and Middle PRZ and 2014 shows a clear path for possible sideways 'fill in' for this entire range.
2010:
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2014:
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2014 H4 view:
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I welcome all questions and comments, good trading all!
