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BTC is coming to crunch timeExecutive summary If you are an investor, you should hold your positions and wait this out. If you're a trader, it's too soon to make a decision. And if you are a short seller, you may be about to lose your shorts. My spread trading strategy covered in the last few BTC charts is still yielding profitable trades and is enough to blunt much of the daily percent price slide of BTC as it falls. This offers significant protection from the decline and cost averages my traded portion of BTC downward during this correction setting up for higher profits on the rebound. As I write this at 18:08 UTC time, BTC has punctured the 7944 level on the daily chart, and this puts us in the area of a possible double bottom, which would be helpful for people with long positions. Since a confirmed double bottom is a bullish sign. It's my opinion that IF we close this bar Below 7432, or 5 1/2 hours from now will be marking the entry into a bear market for BTC. If that were the case, then in my opinion the next downtrend support is in the area 5964 followed by 3627. Unfortunately I don't think there's much resistance down to these levels. My Chart Looking at my chart, you will see a number of turquoise lines, the larger set indicates the general downtrend since the all-time high, and the bottom line of that large set indicates the overall uptrend going back for some time. The intersection of these two lines is a squeeze point from which the prices are likely to burst out either up or down side. The smaller set of lines is a falling wedge reversal pattern, the restriction cone is getting tighter and it COULD or MIGHT point to a bull resistance break but has not manifested as yet. This would be indicated by a bar closing above the upper line of the descending wedge. Lastly, the Red and Green moving average lines. The red line is a 50 period moving average, the green line is a nine period moving average. This is an old trusted indicator, it's drawback is that it tends to be considerably late in indicating the trend. Its strength is that its indications are pretty decisive within the bounds of the periods that it is set to monitor. One thing we can conclude from the current situation with the nine period green line is that as it has moved below the red line, we are now in a negative trend at least for the short-term. Since the lines are widening with relation to each other it looks though it may be strong and could last. One positive note has been a generally declining volume in the selling over the last few bars. This may be due to traders watching the same patterns or similar patterns to the ones that I have waiting for this bar to close today to indicate the direction of market. What does it mean? This does not mean that Bitcoin is dying, or that the investment is no longer valid. This is a process called price discovery which goes on 24/7 with Bitcoin. The danger here is the Taxi driver who bought at 20k or those who invested long-term that they should panic and sell out at a low, or if you are trading in shorts you risk the potential being caught in a short squeeze. Just to reiterate, I do not advocate trading in margin. This is a hairy situation to be sure, and I would advise for most people particularly long-term investor that doing nothing right now is the best course of action. I still have every expectation that BTC will rise to new all-time highs in the not-too-distant future. The cautionary aspect of this story is that should we breach 5964, we may be entering into a long term bear market which will mean that we are holding our investments at a paper loss for some period of months. This is preferable to dumping in a panic and then being caught unawares as the market turns on a dime as it is wont to do and skyrockets higher leaving you behind holding cash. I am not a registered investment advisor. Do not interpret my writings as investment advice or as buy and sell signals.
B
by 6Shooter
Long Term Outlook Yen Feb 14 2018The Yen experienced upheaval in late 2017. Foreign industrial orders for cars and durable goods affect the volatility heavily during times of trade. Now is no different, When you have a stronger currency then it implies that stocks will be at more of a bargain. As stock prices gauge the power of a currency. The increasing separation between Topix prices correlation to the value of Yen. I see these upcoming meetings smoothing out the exchange rate long term. As there won't be any negative correlation between Japanese stocks and the value of the Yen. And instead will proceed to the usual industrial orders months later.
Short
by baronbloe
FOMC Minutes Reveal Inflation Still a ConcernThe FOMC minutes are being released as I write this, but weak inflation seems to one of their key concerns. Expect the yield curve to continue to flatten as this gets priced into the long end. The spread between the US 30 year and Us 2 year has been careening off a cliff lately and given this news, it is safe to expect this trend to continue. The Kovach Chande indicator is solidly bearish, confirming this, and the lower bound of the Kovach Reversals indicator is continuously being pushed. If you want access to the Kovach Momentum Indicators, Reversals Indicator, or Crypto Specific Indicators, please sign up at quantguy.net!
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy
Yield Curve Below 1%, Racing to the BottomThe yield curve (spread between the 30 year and 2 year spread) just broke below 1%. All indicators suggest this trend to continue. It has been encroaching the lower Bollinger Band of the Kovach Reversals Indicator, with no retracement in sight. A retracement will be confirmed by a green triangle, if an when it happens. The Federal reserve should be very mindful of this in their December meeting. If you're interested in the Kovach Reversals Indicator and more, sign up for access at quantguy.net!
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin vs. Altcoin OutlookBitcoin has been on a solid streak this week, just about a full recovery from the Segwit2x mayhem this weekend. The Altcoin index has retraced significantly, and other than a brief test of -1.4%, the spread indicator has been solidly positive for the past three days, indicating that Bitcoin is providing better returns at the moment. At this point a retracement is inevitable, and it may be a good idea to take some profits from BTC, and consider investing in some Altcoins, like ETH or LTC, which seem poised for a breakout. If you're interested in getting access to the crypto spread or altcoin index, sign up at quantguy.net!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
30 Year, 2 Year Spread Making New LowsThe spread between the 30 year US treasury bond and the 2 year bill has made new lows as the yield curve in the US continues to flatten. Anticipate a pullback at some point, but the curve will likely continue to flatten as investors price in a rate hike despite dovish comments from Bullard at the Fed. This pullback will be confirmed by a green triangle on the Kovach Reversal Indicator. If you're interested in using this indicator, check out quantguy.net.
TVC:US30YShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Regains Crypto ThroneAfter the fallout from the Segwit2x drama this weekend, the Altcoin index has tanked and the crypto spread indicator is on fire. It is solidly in positive territory indicating that funds are flowing to Bitcoin from the Altcoins. Ethereum and Litecoin did not seem to benefit at all from the frenzy this weekend, it was all Bitcoin Cash which has since retraced. Consider adding to a position in Bitcoin, but be aware that historically, we've pulled back a bit further before the bulls regain control. If you're interested in the crypto indicators, you can check those out as well as others at quantguy.net
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin and Altcoin and Spreads! Oh My!The Altcoin index (blue line) continues to grow while Bitcoin is pulling back, which indicates that funds are flowing from Bitcoin to Altcoins. The Altcoin spread indicates that Altcoins are providing better returns at the moment. Historically this is transient. Although there has been a lot of tumultuous news lately, e.g. Segwit2x fork being cancelled and Bitcoin Cash threatening to become the new Bitcoin, these do not appear to be that significant. Consider adding to a position in Bitcoin in anticipation of funds to flow back to Bitcoin soon. If you want access to the Crypto Spread, Altcoin Index, and more, sign up at quantguy.net
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Retracement Might Be Short LivedThe fallout from the Segwit fork cancellation has taken its toll on Bitcoin, for the moment. Kovach Momentum Indicators suggest that there is still a lot of steam behind Bitcoin's massive rally. Also, the Kovach Crypto Spread indicator suggests that funds are flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins. Consider adding to a Bitcoin position, but be prepared, as Bitcoin may dip further. Interested in the Kovach Momentum Indicators or the Crypto Spread Indicator? Sign up at quantguy.net
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
EURUSD STRADDLE SPREAD / BINARY TRADEEUR/USD News trading Straddle strategy on Nadex Limit positions placed at 11PM U.K time (21/08/2017) All positions were initiated overnight. All contracts expire 3PM EST (8PM UK Time) Binary Buy > 1.1880 @8.00 Risk $8.00 TP: 55.00 Spread Buy 1.1810 - 1.2060 @1.1830 Risk $20.00 TP: 1.1885 Spread Sell 1.1560 - 1.1810 @1.1794 Risk $16.00 TP: 1.1735 Binary Sell > 1.1740 @92.00 Risk $8.00 TP: 45.00 Max Risk: -$52.00 + -$4.00 (Fees) = -$56.00 Max profit if price hits BUY targets: Binary Buy = +$47.00 Spread Buy = +$55.00 Binary Sell = -$8.00 Spread Sell = -$16.00 Fees = -$6.00 Total: $72.00 Max profit if price hits SELL targets: Binary Sell = +$47.00 Spread Sell = +$59.00 Binary Buy = -$8.00 Spread Buy = -$20.00 Fees = -$6.00 Total: $72.00 The figures above are max risk / max profit, I could make anywhere between -$56.00 to +$72.00 on this trade. I will update around 8pm UK time on the outcome.
by UnknownUnicorn73945
CLOSED: OIH Aug credit spreadThe bear call credit spread strategy gives a decent probability of profit, defined risk, and expresses a bearish opinion that the underlying will move lower. The IVR on OIH reached above 70% and July 12 with a bearish opinion I sold the 25/26 call spread, 2 contracts @ 36 credit ea. The $25.36 break even was quickly tested the following days, but eventually I closed a week early at 5c. In hind sight I should have just closed the short option at 5c and let worthless long call expire to avoid the broker fee.
AMEX:OIH
by dime