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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

S&P500 This is the level that confirms the Bear Cycle.The S&P500 (SPX) has reached a point where it could be on the verge of initiating a new Bear Cycle as the price action that led to the end of 2025 (mostly Q4) has been very similar with the one in late 2021 that kick-started the 2022 Bear Cycle. What confirmed that Bear Cycle was the market closing a 1W candle below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line). This is extremely critical as it has already proven its role as a catalyst during the most recent short-term pull-back in November, where it held upon tested on the week of November 17 2025 and thus rebounded. This is exactly what took place in November 2021, with the index eventually closing a 1W candle below the 1D MA100 almost 2 months later on the week of January 17 2022. That confirmed the 2022 Bear Cycle as the sell-off was accelerated and in just 1 week, the market even hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The structure between the two fractals is so far very similar, with a huge 1W RSI Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against price's Higher Highs) leading the index towards a potential Top. If the price action continues to repeat that of 2022, then we are looking at the very real possibility of a -27.60% overall correction within roughly 12 months time, with the first potential Target being the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) around 5350 and second the full -27.60% extension at 5050. Those two levels technically form the potential Buy Zone for the next Bull Cycle. The metric though that cannot be ignored as far as long-term buying is concerned, is the 1W RSI, which has historically given optimal buy opportunities when it turned oversold (i.e. 30.00 or below). If this level is hit before any of the above two Targets, we will be turning into long-term buyers again regardless. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
5
S&P 500 Makes New ATH — Is This a Fake Breakout?As I expected in the previous idea , the S&P 500 Index( FX:SPX500 ) reached its targets, with a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:67. The S&P 500 has managed to set new all-time highs as we entered 2026. The question now is whether the S&P 500 will continue its bullish trend throughout 2026 or if we should anticipate a correction in the U.S. stock market. It’s important to note that the S&P 500 is a key index for the markets, and its correlation with Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is quite high. Therefore, it’s always beneficial to keep an eye on the S&P 500 when analyzing the crypto market, especially Bitcoin. Currently, the S&P 500 seems to be trading above the resistance zone($6,930_$6,892). However, considering the volume of this breakout, it doesn’t seem like a very convincing breakout. From an Elliott Wave perspective, we might expect the main wave 5 of the S&P 500 to conclude with the help of an ending diagonal, and this wave 5 could complete near the upper lines of the ending diagonal. I expect that the S&P 500 may decline at least to around $6,917, and if it breaks back below the resistance zone and the lower lines of the ending diagonal, we could see further declines to around $6,837 or even lower, leading to a downturn in the U.S. stock market. Note: It’s worth noting that rising tensions in global affairs could also pose a risk to the S&P 500, potentially causing abrupt declines. First Target: $6,917 Second Target: $6,837 Stop Loss(SL): $6,988 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
4
S&P500 Index Guess for 2026 Using Wall Street Ests S&P 500 Index 19 hours ago S&P500 Index Guess for 2026 Using Wall Street Ests 1 1 Grab this chart 256 19 hours ago Wall Street each January makes an estimate for the year ahead S&P500 Index, the largest index used for indexing returns and for managing capital. It's a fascinating practice to take a 'snapshot' of the mentality of the collective wisdom of Wall Street brokerage firms. These are the top 12 brokers in the US which guide portfolio managers globally. I included the long term average of 9%-10% as a reference so you can see that in 2025 Wall Street was bullish and clustered right around the average return as shown by the cluster of black rectangles. Oddly, the previous year estimates seem to have a "value support" function too where the market held on the pullback in the first quarter of 2025 at the level of the 2024 guesses. See for yourself how this worked in 2025. You can also see that the cluster of guesses around 6600 in the SPX created multiple rounds of volatility in the fall of 2025 as the market ran into selling at the "common guess level". This turbulence could have been the result of people either raising cash or rotating from growth to value stocks in the 3rd-4th quarter. So, on initial glance for 2026, I think the mid-term elections will have the most impact on the market and the uncertainty will cause sideways action through the year and finish with a sub-average, but positive year. IF we go under 6400, then I could see the market head down to 6200-6000 where I had seen it for last year. Either way, stay tuned as I update this "guess" along the way as I have done in years past. Overall, the batting average is quite good, but decide for yourself. Wishing you all a healthy and successful 2026! Tim West January 6, 2026 2:16PM EST (hidden since yesterday due to additional scripts accidentally left on the chart hidden)
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Long
by timwest
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Jan 7, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Jan 7, 2026 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Services and labor cross-check: ADP, ISM Services, and Job Openings together shape the near-term labor and growth narrative. • Rates sensitivity: Markets will gauge whether services strength offsets soft manufacturing momentum from earlier in the week. • Setup into Friday jobs: Today’s data can influence positioning ahead of the official employment report. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 8 15 AM • ADP Employment Change Dec: 48,000 10 00 AM • ISM Services Index Dec: 52.2 percent • Job Openings Nov: 7.6 million • Factory Orders Oct: -1.2 percent ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #ISM #ADP #JOLTS #macro #markets #trading
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
ES (SPX, SPY) Fundamental Analysis for Wed Jan 7As we head into Wednesday's session, the S&P 500 E-mini futures are testing significant resistance at the prior day's highs, reflecting a strong rebound from the lows observed last week. The current market landscape is marked by various challenges, including a divided Federal Reserve, softening labor data, and emerging geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. military actions in Venezuela. The Federal Reserve is maintaining its interest rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range after a 25 basis point cut in December. Internal divisions within the Fed have become increasingly apparent, with some members advocating for more substantial cuts while others are in favor of holding rates steady. Currently, the market assigns roughly a 15% chance of a rate cut in January, with the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for January 27-28. The minutes from December's meeting revealed growing concerns over short-term funding stress and the potential for abrupt market volatility, spurring discussions regarding the possibility of Treasury purchases to enhance liquidity in the financial system. Data Catalyst Update ADP Employment Change (Released at 8:15 AM ET) - Actual: +41K - Forecast: +50K - Previous: -32K Today's ADP Employment change shows a modest miss, reflecting a labor market that is recovering yet remains soft. While this figure is an improvement from November's contraction, it falls short of expectations. This outcome supports the view of a gradual cooling in the labor market without signaling an imminent recession. The reading is mildly dovish for the Federal Reserve's policy stance and offers limited directional clarity ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. ISM Services PMI (Scheduled for 10:00 AM ET) - Forecast: ~53.0 - Previous: 52.6 The ISM Services PMI is the key market-moving release of the day. Given that the services sector accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. economic activity, the implications of this report are significant. A reading below 50 would indicate contraction and likely trigger risk-off sentiment in the markets. Conversely, a robust reading above 54 could reignite concerns about hawkish Fed policies, putting pressure on equities. The ideal scenario for market bulls would be a print that comes in line with expectations or slightly soft, thereby sustaining the narrative of a "soft landing." Additional Releases of Note: - Factory Orders (10:00 AM): Expected -1.2% - JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM): Expected 7.64M, down from prior 7.67M - Fed Vice Chair Bowman to speak at 4:10 PM LABOR MARKET CONTEXT In the last week of 2025, initial jobless claims fell to 199,000, marking the lowest level since early last year. This decline indicates a resilient labor market, even as the unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% in November—the highest rate since September 2021. This uptick can be attributed primarily to federal workforce reductions linked to ongoing government restructuring efforts. Overall, the labor market appears stable, characterized by low hiring and equally low firing rates. Continuing claims have increased to 1.92 million, underscoring the reality that although layoffs have remained subdued, job seekers are facing extended search periods. The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, with a forecast of approximately 55,000 new jobs, will offer crucial insights into the employment landscape for December. GEOPOLITICAL RISK The recent U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has injected a new layer of uncertainty into the geopolitical landscape. In the wake of this development, Washington has announced plans to take temporary control of Venezuela while facilitating the involvement of U.S. energy firms in the exploration and development of the country’s vast oil reserves—the largest in the world. This situation has led to a modest uptick in demand for the dollar as a safe haven, while simultaneously increasing volatility within energy markets. From an equities perspective, this scenario presents a short-term challenge as investors grapple with the implications of U.S. access to Venezuelan oil. However, should this development result in a significant increase in oil supply, it could ultimately have disinflationary effects. CURRENCY & RATES The EUR/USD exchange rate has retraced to the 1.1685-1.1700 range after failing to maintain momentum above the 1.1800 threshold. While the dollar is finding some support driven by geopolitical flows, it remains fundamentally weak in light of expectations for Federal Reserve easing. The DXY index is currently hovering around 98.25, notably below the recent high of 100.40. On the European front, German inflation has come in at 1.8%, marking the first dip below the European Central Bank’s 2% target since September 2024. This development effectively reduces the likelihood of any near-term ECB interest rate hikes, maintaining the narrative of policy divergence between the ECB and other central banks. In the bond markets, a rally occurred overnight as yields fell, reflecting a shift in investor risk positioning as they look ahead to 2026. Market Structure Analysis ES futures closed Tuesday at 6,988.25, marking a notable rebound from Monday's low of 6,931. This upward movement has brought prices near key resistance levels established in the prior week and quarter, specifically between 6,991 and 6,995. This zone represents a significant confluence of resistance. While daily oscillators indicate elevated levels, they do not yet reach extremes, allowing for the possibility of continued upward momentum should this resistance be surpassed. The overarching trend remains bullish, underscored by a series of higher highs since the lows observed in October. However, an analysis of the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes reveals overbought conditions, which typically signal a need for consolidation or a potential pullback. Market Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish with Anticipated Pullback The current macroeconomic landscape favors equities, as the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance, inflationary pressures appear to be easing, and while the labor market remains stable, signs of cooling are evident. However, market positioning has grown extended near resistance levels, and the upcoming ISM report introduces potential volatility. From a bullish perspective, an ideal scenario would see a quick dip in response to the ISM data, targeting the 6,960-6,970 support zone. Such a pullback could facilitate institutional buying before the market resumes its upward trajectory. A sustained move above 6,995 would pave the way toward the psychologically significant 7,000 mark and possibly higher. Key Risk Factors to Watch: - A surprisingly strong ISM reading (greater than 55) could reignite hawkish concerns from the Fed. - Ongoing tensions in Venezuela could introduce additional market uncertainties. - Pre-NFP positioning may lead to increased market volatility and choppy trading conditions. Bottom Line Today's market outlook is largely shaped by the upcoming 10:00 AM release of the ISM Services index, which is expected to bring significant volatility. The recent ADP employment report, which fell short of expectations, did not stir up much reaction, leading to a market that remains in a cautionary holding pattern around key resistance levels. Traders should be watchful for potential trading opportunities, particularly during any pullbacks to the value-area support. Current higher-timeframe trends suggest a preference for buying on dips rather than pursuing breakouts at these elevated levels. Key Levels to Monitor: - Support: 6,959 - 6,972 - Resistance: 6,991 - 7,000
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
SPY Weekly Outlook – Week 1 of 2026SPY Weekly Outlook – Week 1 of 2026 Technical Look: Price moved exactly as planned in my December 21 Weekly SPY outlook (you can check the linked idea). The market bottomed on December 17, which was also anticipated in my December 14 Weekly SPY prediction. After that, price pushed into all time highs and got rejected from those levels. Currently, SPY is retracing from the highs and appears to be seeking additional liquidity and energy before any continuation higher. This consolidation phase may take longer than initially expected. Scenarios – Prediction: I am tracking two main scenarios for SPY during January 5–9. Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario The 684 level is marked as an options put wall. I will be closely watching for a 4H close above this level. A confirmed 4H close above 684 would indicate that the bullish scenario is in play, and I would look to engage on the long side. Potential upside targets for this scenario: 686.75 – 689 – 691.75 Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario If price fails to break above 684 and starts declining, I would consider that SPY is seeking lower prices. Downside targets in this scenario: 678.75 – 673 – 669.25 If price breaks 678.75 aggressively , I would then consider lower targets to be in play. Otherwise, the 678.75 level could act as a strong bounce zone for a potential upside reaction. Position Management Notes: Each target level may cause significant pullbacks or reversals. Personally, I take partial profits at these levels and keep the remaining position open toward the next targets, while trailing the stop loss to breakeven. This is how I manage my positions. I share deeper US Market breakdowns and weekly scenario updates on Substack. Link is in my profile. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by UA_CAPITAL
2
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Jan 6, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Jan 6, 2026 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Quiet macro session: No major inflation or labor data ahead of Wednesday and Friday’s heavier releases. • Services tone in focus: Final PMI helps confirm whether services momentum held up into year-end. • Markets in reset mode: Early-year positioning and flows remain the primary driver. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 9 45 AM • S and P Final U.S. Services PMI Dec: 52.9 ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #PMI #services #markets #trading #stocks #macro
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Jan 8, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Jan 8, 2026 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Labor check ahead of payrolls: Jobless claims act as the final labor signal before Friday’s jobs report. • Growth efficiency read: Productivity data feeds directly into margin and inflation narratives. • Macro breadth day: Trade deficit and consumer credit round out the growth and demand picture. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 8 30 AM • Initial Jobless Claims Jan 3: 210,000 • U.S. Trade Deficit Oct: -58.4 billion • U.S. Productivity Q3: 4.9 percent 3 00 PM • Consumer Credit Nov: 9.2 billion ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #JoblessClaims #Productivity #macro #markets #trading #stocks
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPXL: The Path to $252 Amid Geopolitical JoltsSPXL: The Path to $252 Amid Geopolitical Jolts As we move through the first week of 2026, SPXL is showing signs of a coiled spring. After trading near the $230 level, the technical setup suggests a potential squeeze to $252. The speed of this move likely hinges on how the market digests the dramatic news out of South America and the Federal Reserve's first moves of the year. The Venezuela Catalyst The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolas Maduro have introduced a massive geopolitical wildcard. While such events often trigger "risk-off" sentiment, the market’s reaction has been surprisingly resilient. Energy Impact: Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. Any "breakout" news regarding the stabilization of their energy infrastructure could lead to a massive relief rally in U.S. equities as energy costs anticipate a long-term decline. The Timeline: If the market views this as a definitive turning point for global energy stability, we could see the $252 squeeze materialize by the end of January. However, if the situation leads to prolonged regional instability, expect a period of consolidation, pushing my target arrival to late February. Fed Actions: The January Pivot? The FOMC meeting on January 27–28 is the next major hurdle. With the market already pricing in a "measured approach" to easing, any dovish tilt from the Fed—perhaps acknowledging that geopolitical risks require a more supportive liquidity environment—could be the fuel for the SPXL breakout. Conversely, a "hawkish hold" might favor the late February consolidation path. SPXL vs. SPX: Understanding the Engine It is vital for traders to distinguish between SPXL and the SPX (S&P 500 Index). 3x Daily Leverage: SPXL seeks to return 300% of the daily performance of the S&P 500. If the SPX rises 1%, SPXL aims to rise 3%. Compounding & Decay: Because the leverage resets daily, SPXL is subject to "volatility decay." In a choppy, sideways market, SPXL can lose value even if the SPX remains flat. The "Squeeze" Factor: Because of its leveraged nature, SPXL moves much faster than the broad market. A move to $252 represents a roughly 10% gain from current levels, which would only require a ~3.3% move in the underlying S&P 500. Bottom Line Watch the $232 resistance level. A clean break above this, fueled by positive developments in Venezuela or a dovish Fed, puts $252 on the map for a January sprint. Otherwise, pack your patience for a late February arrival.
AMEX:SPXLLong
by Assume_Diptopia
New All Time Highs - Bullish Price ActionToday the S&P500 made new all time highs. It was a perfect breakout trend day and breakout. Today we were able to trim and take profits on some of our long exposure. We trimmed and sold NASDAQ:AMZN NYSE:SNAP NASDAQ:TEM NYSE:SMR When the market is giving you all time highs and higher highs its always a good time to pair back longs. Tomorrow we have some employment data that could gap the market higher. If we can confirm a weekly chart breakout the probabilities of hitting 7k on spx is very likely.
NYSE:NKELong
by Trading-Capital
SPX - Next LevelsWe’re evaluating the move starting from April 2025. It looks like we’re nearing the end of this move, currently plotting the fifth wave. Corrections of waves 2 and 4 are roughly equal in size. Fibonacci levels indicate the next target around 7,200 . The 7,600 level (slightly below or above) roughly aligns with a larger Fibonacci extension, counting the first wave from October 2022 to July 2023. Potential targets: 7,200 7,600 --- Please subscribe and leave a comment. You’ll get new information faster than anyone else. ---
TVC:SPXLong
by NotBoringTrading
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Tue (Jan 6)U.S. stock markets closed on a positive note today, buoyed primarily by gains in the energy sector and large banking institutions. This upside was propelled by headlines related to Venezuela, which invigorated both the energy market and investor risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index for December showed a contraction, remaining below the 50 threshold, which reinforces the narrative of uneven economic growth and places increased emphasis on upcoming services data scheduled for release later this week. Looking Ahead to Tuesday: The macroeconomic calendar for Tuesday appears relatively light, suggesting that the equity markets may engage in a more directional trading pattern unless unexpected geopolitical developments emerge overnight. The primary risk window looms larger later in the week with significant reports on ADP employment, ISM Services, and the EIA energy outlook, culminating in the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Overnight Outlook into New York: The most probable scenario sees a rotation around the 6948.50 level (VWAP), with a two-sided trading dynamic expected. Key support is identified at the 6942.50/6940.00 range, while the first resistance ceiling is placed between 6955.25 and 6963.50. A bullish scenario would emerge with a stable hold above 6942.50 and a successful move through 6955.25, paving the way toward the 6963.50 resistance level and beyond. Conversely, bearish pressure may materialize if the index falls below 6940.00, with a failure to reclaim 6942.50 potentially exposing levels around 6932.75 and the 6912.75-6906.00 range. Trade Setups for Tomorrow A++ Long Setup (Preferred): Entry: 6932-6935 (PDL / NYAM.L test) Stop: 6927 Target: 6948-6955 B+ Short Setup (Fade Rally) : Entry: 6950-6955 (VWAP / Y-POC rejection) Stop: 6960 Target: 6935-6940 Deep Discount Long (If Major Flush): Entry: 6906-6912 (LO.H / AS.H zone) Stop: 6900 Target: 6940-6950 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
SPX 0DTE idea JAN 6 2026SPX is currently trading inside a balance zone, not a clean trend. Momentum slowed after the last push up, and price is now reacting around key levels. This is a wait-for-confirmation environment, not a prediction market. Key Levels • 6900–6922 → Balance / Chop zone • 6922 → Major resistance • 6898→ Breakdown trigger • 6883 → 6869 → 6857 → Downside targets if selling accelerates Bullish Scenario (CALL) Only valid after confirmation: • Break and hold above 6922 • Acceptance above the level (15m / 1H close) • Successful retest holding above. Targets: • TP1: 6935 • TP2: 6960 Bearish Scenario (PUT) More favorable if price loses balance: • Breakdown below 6898 • Failure to reclaim. Targets: • TP1: 6883 ( is the acceleration level. Acceptance below it usually leads to faster downside movement. ) • TP2: 6869 • Extension: 6857 Summary • ❌ No trades inside 6900–6920 • ❌ No guessing direction • ✅ Trade confirmation, not hope Above 6922 → CALL Below 6895 → PUT
CAPITALCOM:US500
by deltaspxtrading
US500 Structure Turns Positive as Demand Builds📈 Bullish US500 / SPX500 Swing Trade Opportunity | Thief Layer Strategy 🛡️💰 🔥 Asset: US500 / SPX500 Index 📅 Trade Style: Swing Trade 📊 Market Bias: Bullish Momentum 💡 Trade Plan – Thief Layer Entry Strategy We’re playing a multi-layered bullish entry using Thief’s layering method 👇 🔹 Limit Layers: • Buy Limit @ 6820 • Buy Limit @ 6840 • Buy Limit @ 6860 • Buy Limit @ 6880 (Add more layers based on personal risk tolerance & preference) Layer Method: Using multiple limit orders helps accumulate positions on weakness and improve average entry for swing upside. 🛑 Stop Loss – Thief OG Rule 🔒 SL: 6800 (Thief SL) ➡️ Adjust SL based on your own risk level and strategy. Manage risk yourself — only use my SL as reference, not guidance. ⚠️ I am not recommending you ONLY use my SL/TP — trade at your own risk & adjust as needed. 🏁 Target Zone 🎯 Primary Target: 6980 📌 This zone aligns with strong resistance, potential overbought reaction & trap level — cautious profit-taking area. 🔗 Related Markets to WATCH Here are correlated markets that often move with SPX500: ✔️ US Dollar Index (DXY) – correlation influences risk sentiment and equities. A stronger USD often supports equity strength, though relationship varies over time. ✔️ NASDAQ / US Tech Index – tech is a big driver for US500 performance due to sector weight. ✔️ Crude Oil (WTI / Brent) – recent patterns showed equities trending in tandem with oil, reflecting risk appetite. ✔️ EUR/USD & GBP/USD — sentiment indicators that often swing with risk on/off market mood. 🧠 Fundamentals & Macro Drivers 📌 Economic Outlook: U.S. growth expected without recession in 2026, aiding risk assets. 📌 Fed Policy: Recent rate cuts and expectation of additional easing support equity valuations. 📌 Earnings Growth: Most major sectors projected with higher expected growth for 2026. 📌 AI + Tech Tailwinds: Continued AI investment remains a key bullish driver for US equities. 📅 Watch Upcoming News Events: • U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls • Fed Rate Decisions / FOMC Minutes • CPI & Inflation data • PMI & Retail Sales 📌 Why This Setup ✅ Multi-layer entries improve execution quality ✅ Bullish macro backdrop + earnings support ✅ Clear risk zone + target ✅ Correlation watchlist for context 💬 Trade smart, manage risk, and always confirm with your own analysis. If this idea helped, *like 👍, comment 💬, and follow 📌 for more Thief strategy setups!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by The-Thief
SPX: Around 7.500 by YE2026?S&P 500 opened 2026 with a mild gain and positive sector rotation into chip/industrial stocks, though broader sentiment remains cautious after a strong prior year. The S&P 500 edged higher to start trading in 2026, rising modestly, 0.2% on January 2nd, after snapping a brief multi-session losing streak, helped by gains in chip and industrial stocks. Semiconductor names like Nvidia, Intel and Micron led the upside, while some mega-cap tech stocks were weaker. Despite the uptick, overall market breadth was mixed. The index entered 2026 on the back of strong 2025 performance, finishing that year up about 16%, but market analysts noted cautious sentiment and the absence of a typical “Santa Claus rally.” Western Digital & Micron Technology continued strong performance with notable gains, reflecting persistent demand for data storage and memory chips tied to AI growth trends. Sandisk, newly added to the S&P 500, also jumped sharply. Nvidia regained momentum after tech export concerns and remains a central driver of semiconductor strength, supported by chip demand (especially in China) and upcoming tech-show catalysts. Tesla underperformed this week, declining after reporting lower Q4 deliveries versus expectations, while various EV and AI sectors saw mixed moves. Energy and defensive sectors showed relative strength compared with some lagging big tech names, as investors balanced growth vs defensive exposures amid early-year trading. Analysts' predictions for the level of S&P 500 in 2026 are more or less in alignment, meaning up to 10% gain for the year. JPMorgan’s base case includes an index at app. 7.500 by the year end, which would be a 10% gain for the year. In their bull case, the S&P 500 should rise up to 8.000. Analysts from UBS are predicting a base case around 7.700 by the end of this year, supported by broad earnings growth, a constructive macro backdrop and continued AI and tech sector leadership. Strategists from Morgan Stanley see the index ending this year around 7.800, reflecting expectations for a continued bull market with supportive policy and strong earnings. Analysts from Goldman Sachs target around 7.600, underpinned by robust earnings growth and ongoing strength in leading sectors like tech.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis Week-ahead from Jan 5 to Jan 9, 2026Multi-Timeframe Market Analysis Weekly Overview: The Big Picture The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) continues to demonstrate an uptrend on a macro scale, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. However, the recent market activity has resembled a gradual grind near the upper boundaries of a multi-month trading range—a behavior often referred to as “premium.” This indicates a slowdown in upward momentum, with pullbacks becoming increasingly pronounced. While the market does not exhibit extreme overbought conditions, the acceleration seen in prior weeks has noticeably diminished. Daily Trend and Range Dynamics On a daily basis, the market is operating within an upward trend that is currently exhibiting range-bound characteristics. We are witnessing repeated attempts to test the upper supply zone around the 6980-7000 level, followed by mean reversion toward the mid-to-lower 6900s. The latest daily swing reflects a pullback from this upper band, positioning prices now towards the center of this range, where liquidity zones take precedence over simply chasing trends. 4-Hour Perspective: Impulse vs. Correction Analyzing the 4-hour chart reveals a distinct corrective move followed by a rebound that has yet to solidify a sequence of higher highs. While the overarching weekly trend remains bullish, the current 4-hour action feels more like a rebound effort, with the market in a phase of "repair" after experiencing a sharp decline. 1-Hour Intraday Context At the intraday level, the latest 1-hour movement reflects a rebound from the lower 6800s towards the resistance zone in the low-to-mid 6900s. This places traders in a critical “decision zone” as we enter Monday's session, where the market faces a pivotal moment: it must either reclaim and sustain levels above these key resistance shelves (indicating bullish continuation) or risk further fading of rallies, which would suggest a return to range-bound or corrective trading. Oscillator and Momentum Indicators (Weekly and Daily) From a momentum perspective, the weekly oscillators point to a constructive yet cooling outlook, lacking signs of a fresh breakout structure. Daily momentum indicators are closer to neutral territory, indicative of a market that appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, poised for a catalyst to determine its next direction. Volatility Metrics Analysis VIX Overview The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed the previous session at 14.51, reflecting a decline throughout the day. VIX Term Structure The VIX term structure remains in contango, with an upward-sloping curve indicating that implied volatility is anticipated to rise over the coming months. Specifically, the implied volatility for January sits at 12.55, February at 15.38, and March at 17.34, with further increases projected for later months. This pattern is typically indicative of stable market conditions, suggesting that volatility is being priced higher down the line compared to the present. Rates Volatility (MOVE) The MOVE Index, which measures volatility in interest rates, is currently at 62.36 as we approach market close, also reflecting a decrease on the day. This level does not indicate significant stress within the market, aligning more with an environment in which investors are not exhibiting panic regarding interest rate fluctuations. Options and Positioning Overview Current Put/Call Ratios (Latest Daily Figures) - Total Put/Call: 0.83 - Index Put/Call: 1.08 - ETP Put/Call: 0.85 - Equity Put/Call: 0.56 Analysis: The equity flow currently exhibits a call-leaning sentiment, as indicated by the lower equity put/call ratio. In contrast, index hedging remains active, with the index put/call ratio above 1. This duality is characteristic of late-cycle market behavior, where investors often purchase upside in individual stocks while simultaneously maintaining protective index hedges. 10-day Moving Average of Put/Call Ratios Unfortunately, a definitive and authoritative 10-day moving average for the total put/call ratio is not readily available from the sources providing daily data in a machine-readable format. While the daily figures presented are confirmed, the 10-day averages cannot be securely sourced at this time. SKEW - Tail Risk Pricing The SKEW index closed at 141.86, a figure that Cboe describes as reflective of the pricing dynamics surrounding out-of-the-money SPX options, particularly those associated with tail risk. Typically, values for SKEW fluctuate within the 100-150 range. The implication is clear: despite a calm front-end volatility environment (as suggested by VIX levels), tail hedges are attractively priced. Dealer Gamma Insights Considering the current landscape of low spot volatility coupled with contango and a modest equity put/call ratio, market conditions suggest that dip buyers may defend the initial downside levels effectively. However, the elevated SKEW indicates that the demand for downside tail protection is increasing, meaning that if the market breaches key support levels (S4), panic-induced hedging activity could accelerate rapid downward movements. This interpretation is based on the metrics discussed and does not represent direct insights from dealer positioning. Market Breadth and Internals Analysis Advancers vs. Decliners (NYSE) On January 2, 2026, the New York Stock Exchange recorded 1,882 advancing issues compared to 882 declining ones. Breadth Oscillator (McClellan) The NYSE’s McClellan Oscillator is currently at -18.826, a notable improvement from -76.414 previously. This indicates that while breadth remains slightly negative, the recent uptick suggests a reduction in selling pressure. Sector Performance Snapshot Recent market activity has highlighted leadership in the energy sector, along with notable strength in semiconductor stocks, while consumer segments have lagged behind. Should this trend continue, it would support a “grind/range” market environment rather than a drastic “waterfall selloff,” unless unexpected macroeconomic events disrupt the landscape. Market Dynamics: Minor Wobble vs. Distribution Day With breadth showing signs of improvement and credit markets not exhibiting significant stress, the current evidence leans towards a “minor wobble/consolidation” scenario rather than a full-scale distribution. This outlook holds, provided that key support levels remain intact and market internals do not deteriorate concurrently. Credit and Funding Overview High Yield ETFs - HYG: 80.67 - JNK: 97.24 High Yield Spreads (OAS) As of the last available print on December 31, 2025, the ICE BofA US High Yield OAS stands at 2.81%. This level is considered tight and typically signifies “orderly credit” conditions. It is important to monitor these spreads closely; a sharp widening could signal increased risk aversion, which often leads to more significant pullbacks in equity markets. Sentiment and Crowd Positioning AAII Sentiment (Latest) - Bullish: 42.0% - Neutral: 31.0% - Bearish: 27.0% The current sentiment readings indicate a notable tilt toward optimism. While this sentiment alone does not serve as a reliable timing mechanism for market reversals, it effectively diminishes the “wall of worry” that frequently fuels market squeezes. Cross-Asset and Global Risk Tone Crypto (Risk-On Proxy) - BTC: 91,314 - ETH: 3,137.63 The resilience in cryptocurrency prices typically reflects a broader risk-on sentiment, although it should be noted that this is not a definitive indicator for daily movements in equities. ES vs. NQ Relative Strength The Nasdaq (NQ) continues to exhibit higher beta characteristics. If NQ consistently underperforms during market rallies, it may hinder attempts for the S&P 500 (ES) to push through resistance levels at R1 and R2. Scheduled Events(ET): Mon Jan 5 • 10:00 AM - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) Tue Jan 6 • 9:45 AM - S&P Global Final Services PMI (Dec) Wed Jan 7 • 8:15 AM - ADP Employment Change (Dec) • 10:00 AM - ISM Services PMI (Dec) • 10:00 AM - JOLTS Job Openings (Nov) • Late afternoon - Fed speaker risk (watch headlines) Thu Jan 8 • 8:30 AM - Weekly Unemployment Claims • 8:30 AM - Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Q3) Fri Jan 9 (highest impact) • 8:30 AM - Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings • 10:00 AM - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (prelim) Two A++ setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1) A++ Setup 1 - Rejection Fade Short (R1/R2 cap) Entry: 6934.75-6937.50 Hard SL: 6946.25 (above the 15m rejection wick) TP1: 6906.50 (S1) TP2: 6889.50 (S3 top) TP3: 6875.50 (S4 top) Invalidation: 15m acceptance above 6940.75 and holding (no immediate snapback) A++ Setup 2 - Bounce Long (S4 defend) Entry: 6869.00-6876.00 Hard SL: 6859.75 (below the reclaim wick and below 6861.75 fib magnet) TP1: 6902.75 (S1) TP2: 6938.50 (R1) TP3: 6982.50 (R3 first tag) Invalidation: 15m bodies holding below 6866.75 Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Week of Jan 5 to Jan 9, 2026🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Jan 5 to Jan 9, 2026 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • First full week of the year: Positioning resets, fresh macro signals, and liquidity normalization after holidays. • Growth vs labor balance: ISM, services data, and jobs will shape early 2026 rate expectations. • Labor market focus Friday: Payrolls and wages remain the dominant macro driver for rates and equities. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Monday Jan 5 10 00 AM • ISM Manufacturing Index Dec: 48.3 percent • Auto Sales Dec: 15.6 million Tuesday Jan 6 9 45 AM • S and P Final U.S. Services PMI Dec: 52.9 Wednesday Jan 7 8 30 AM • ADP Employment Change Dec: 45,000 10 00 AM • ISM Services Index Dec: 52.1 percent • Job Openings Nov: 7.7 million • Factory Orders Oct: -1.2 percent Thursday Jan 8 8 30 AM • Initial Jobless Claims Jan 3: 199,000 • U.S. Trade Deficit Oct: 58 billion • U.S. Productivity Q3: 4.7 percent 3 00 PM • Consumer Credit Nov: 12.4 billion Friday Jan 9 🚩 Primary Macro Day 8 30 AM • U.S. Employment Report Dec: 54,000 • Unemployment Rate Dec: 4.7 percent • Hourly Wages Dec: 0.3 percent • Hourly Wages Year over Year: 3.5 percent • Housing Starts Oct: 1.33 million 9 45 AM • UMich Consumer Sentiment Jan: 53.5 🧭 Trading Context • Manufacturing still contractionary while services remain expansionary. • Labor data Friday will set the tone for January rate expectations. • Expect higher volatility as liquidity returns and positioning rebuilds. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #markets #macro #jobs #ISM #Fed #trading #stocks
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
SPX/USDT - Reversal Signal After Descending Trendline PressureSPX6900 has been moving in a clear downtrend structure, characterized by consistent Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL). The descending trendline has been acting as strong dynamic resistance since the price peaked around the 1.6 USDT area. Currently, price has reached a major demand zone (support area) around 0.45 – 0.55 USDT, highlighted by the yellow box on the chart. This zone has historically triggered strong buying reactions. Most importantly, recent candles show a bullish reaction and an attempt to break above the descending trendline, signaling potential momentum exhaustion on the bearish side. --- 📐 Pattern Explanation 1. Descending Trendline (Bearish Market Structure) Price has been trading below the descending trendline for an extended period. Every bullish attempt was rejected at the trendline, confirming seller dominance. 2. Strong Demand / Accumulation Zone The 0.45 – 0.55 USDT area acts as a key support level. Multiple rejections from this zone indicate accumulation by buyers. 3. Early Trendline Break Attempt Price is attempting to break the descending trendline. A daily close above the trendline is required for valid confirmation of a trend shift. --- 📈 Bullish Scenario If price: Closes above the descending trendline Holds above the 0.55 – 0.60 USDT support area Then bullish continuation becomes likely, with upside targets: 🎯 Bullish Targets (Resistance Levels): 0.725 USDT 0.925 USDT 1.00 – 1.125 USDT 1.35 USDT 1.50 – 1.60 USDT (major resistance zone) 📌 This scenario will be strengthened by increasing volume and the formation of Higher Lows (HL). --- 📉 Bearish Scenario The bearish scenario remains valid if: Price fails to hold above 0.55 USDT Strong rejection occurs at the descending trendline ⚠️ Downside risks: Retest of the 0.45 USDT support Breakdown below demand may push price toward 0.40 – 0.36 USDT 📌 A clean breakdown below the demand zone would invalidate the reversal scenario and confirm bearish continuation. --- 🧠 Key Takeaway SPX6900 is currently trading at a critical decision zone: Major demand area Descending trendline breakout attempt Price is deciding between: 👉 A bullish reversal and trend change or 👉 Continuation of the broader bearish trend Daily candle confirmation is crucial. --- #SPX6900 #SPX6900USDT #CryptoTechnicalAnalysis #AltcoinAnalysis #DailyChart #TrendlineBreak #DescendingTrend #DemandZone #SupportResistance #BullishScenario #BearishScenario #PriceAction #CryptoTrading
Long
by CryptoNuclear
Wyckoff's Everywhere? Or Hallucinations?Is anyone else seeing Wyckoff distributions all over the place in stocks right now? I feel like I saw one and then started noticing them everywhere on major stocks Bitcoin has one, started back in July and is straight out of a TA textbook. The prior cycles, Crypto peaked 1st being the most sensitive to liquidity changes. Seems Bearish Seems Bearish However, TSM looks bullish! It was forming a similar pattern but appears to be breaking out to the upside. If other stocks can follow this track things could keep going.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MonetaryRebel