BITCOIN — THE SUPPORT LINEBitcoin’s ultimate support for bulls lies between the two black lines shown above.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Ray Dalio’s bubble warning aged fast today Ray Dalio’s warning not to “sell just because there’s a bubble” didn’t land today as a delayed September jobs report showing 119,000 new jobs cut into hopes of a December Fed rate cut.
The S&P 500 swung from a 1.9% gain to a 1.1% loss, and the Nasdaq flipped from up 2.6% to down 1.5%. The S&P 500 chart now shows declining momentum with lower highs forming. That kind of engulfing behaviour can mark exhaustion phases in extended rallies.
Bitcoin also unraveled, dropping nearly 5% and sinking back under 87,000 as liquidations accelerated. The current monthly candle could be confirming a potential shift in trend momentum after a multi-year climb.
Day 74 — Surviving a 242-Point Crash MoveEnded the day +$450.40 trading S&P Futures, but I’m walking away feeling tilted despite the profit. We sniped the 48-minute MOB resistance right out of the gate—just as planned in last night’s video—but I never expected the market to flush 242 points from top to bottom. That is a "market crash" level move. My P/L was a complete rollercoaster, swinging from +$400 to negative and back again. I’m grateful to end green, but after a session this volatile, I’m likely locking my account and taking a mental break tomorrow.
🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow
Above 6725 = Bullish Below 6710 = Bearish
📰 News Highlights
BITCOIN FALLS 3% TO $87,000, LOWEST SINCE APRIL
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, PA Forecast, Setups Fri (Nov 21)Analyzing Today’s Sharp Market Decline
The significant selloff observed today was not an arbitrary event. The day began with a robust rally following another impressive earnings report in the AI-chip sector, which propelled futures sharply upward and triggered a short squeeze in the Nasdaq. However, the release of a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report shifted the market's sentiment. While hiring showed signs of rebounding, the unemployment rate also ticked higher, undermining the prevailing narrative that the Federal Reserve would soon lower interest rates.
This development served as a stark reminder of the ongoing restrictive monetary policy, coupled with slowing economic growth and exorbitant valuations in the tech sector. Major investment funds capitalized on the morning’s strength in AI and large-cap stocks as an opportunity to reduce their risk exposure. Additionally, systematic trend-followers faced compulsion to sell once the S&P 500 fell below critical support levels.
The environment for high-beta assets, including cryptocurrencies, is already in a “reset” phase, which left little incentive for dip-buying at lower price points. As the E-mini S&P 500 futures broke through the previous day’s support levels, the situation escalated into a full liquidation. This perfect storm involved trapped long positions from the morning breakout, stop-loss orders falling into execution beneath yesterday’s lows, and mechanical selling, culminating in the largest intraday reversal since the spring.
Market Outlook
The current market sentiment is skewed bearish as the ES remains entrenched below the critical 6,660 to 6,700 range. The price is hovering near a significant demand zone established around the lows of the previous trading day and today’s New York session. While we can expect some upward bounces, these movements appear to be temporary rallies within an ongoing downtrend, rather than indicators of a potential new upward leg.
Market Analysis: Is This the Beginning of a Downtrend or a Temporary Shakeout?
In the recent developments within the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) on the daily timeframe, we’ve observed the formation of a distinct lower high following the recent all-time peak. This shift has seen prices breach the last identified higher-low area, establishing a new narrative. The sequence has transitioned from a higher high to a lower high, culminating in a movement into prior demand zones marked by increased volume, all while momentum appears to be rolling over.
On the four-hour chart, the prevailing trend reflects a series of lower highs and lower lows. The recent selloff has further entrenched this trajectory into the discount zone, now signaling proximity to the next Fibonacci retracement target below.
While momentum indicators have already dipped from overbought conditions, they have not yet reached deeply oversold thresholds, indicating potential for another leg downward following any short-term corrective bounce.
From a broader perspective, the long-term trend remains positive; however, a short- to medium-term corrective phase appears to be in play. Today’s market dynamics suggest we may be in the midst of this corrective leg rather than witnessing the final downturn.
As prices have recently entered a significant demand zone, a bounce lasting one to three sessions—or a period of sideways consolidation—seems likely before any potential further decline.
In summary, while current conditions favor a move towards lower prices in the days ahead, the market likely anticipates a "lower after a bounce" scenario rather than an immediate and steep decline.
Key resistance zones
Resistance is written as bands, not single ticks.
R1: 6,589–6,600
This band sits around the current Asia-session high and the underside of today’s New York low. It is the first lid above price. If rallies stall here, the tape stays heavy and favors another test of the lows.
R2: 6,634–6,658
This is the main breakdown zone from today, centered around the New York afternoon high and the upper edge of the late-session range. As long as ES trades below this shelf, the short-term downtrend remains intact and every bounce is suspect.
R3: 6,760.5–6,791.25
This band covers the New York morning low-to-high range and the origin of the big sell leg. If price ever retests this area and fails, it is a prime region for larger swing shorts. Only sustained trade and closes above this pocket would suggest the current corrective leg is ending.
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Key support zones
S1: 6,575–6,552
This is the immediate floor combining the Asia-session low, New York afternoon low, and prior-day value low. It is where we are effectively trading now. Expect reactive bounces and stop-runs here, as both sides are active.
S2: 6,525–6,509
This is the next downside magnet if S1 breaks cleanly. It aligns with a fib extension and 4-hour demand. A decisive move into this region would represent the next step down in the correction.
S3: 6,430–6,418
Deeper extension and prior higher-timeframe demand. If the correction matures into a more serious pullback over several sessions, this pocket becomes a reasonable medium-term downside destination.
A++ Setup 1 – Short from R2 supply (continuation short)
Direction: Short
Entry zone: 6,638–6,648
SL (hard stop): 6,678
TP1: 6,588
TP2: 6,552
TP3: 6,515
Invalidation (structure):
If we get a 15m full-body close above 6,675, treat the short idea as invalid and stand aside; market is likely shifting into a squeeze toward 6,700+ instead of extending the down leg.
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A++ Setup 2 – Quick-reclaim long from S1 demand (counter-trend bounce)
Direction: Long
Entry logic: need a flush then reclaim
Entry zone (after reclaim): 6,562–6,568
SL (hard stop): 6,538
TP1: 6,610
TP2: 6,638
TP3: 6,660
Invalidation (structure):
If price breaks below 6,552 and 15m closes stay below 6,545 without a fast reclaim, the bounce idea is invalid; then you wait for the deeper S2 zone instead of forcing longs here.
Good Luck !!!
How to Identify Stocks Uptrends and Downtrends to Gain a TradingHow to Identify Stocks Uptrends and Downtrends to Gain a Trading Edge and understand the psychology behind the patterns
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 21, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Nov 21, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📊 Flash PMIs take center stage: These are the first real-time reads on November growth — high-impact for equities, yields, and recession-tracking.
🧭 Consumer sentiment + inventories wrap the week: UMich final reading offers clues on spending resilience; wholesale inventories remain a shutdown-delayed report.
⚠️ Shutdown backlog: Wholesale inventories (Aug) is still delayed due to the Oct 1–Nov 12 shutdown.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Flash PMIs (Nov)
• Services: 54.5 (vs 54.8 forecast)
• Manufacturing: 52.0 (vs 52.5 forecast)
One of the most important releases of the day — markets move off this.
⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Sentiment (Final, Nov)
Actual: 51.0
Low sentiment continues to weigh on forward demand expectations.
⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Aug, delayed report)
Actual: 0.1 percent
⚠️ Delayed due to the federal shutdown — low relevance, but still part of the data backlog.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #PMI #consumer #markets #stocks #investing
S&P 500 Reversal Roadmap: Second Bottom Forming at PRZ?As I expected in the previous idea , the S&P 500 index has indeed reached its targets after breaking through the Support lines .
Currently, the S&P 500 is approaching the Support zone($6,580_$6,490) , Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) , and the 100_SMA(Daily) .
There’s a possibility of forming a second bottom and a descending channel in the S&P 500, suggesting that the second bottom could form near the PRZ .
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that the S&P 500 is completing the microwave 5 of the microwave C of the main wave Y .
I expect that, after entering the PRZ or approaching the 100_SMA(Daily) , the S&P 500 will resume its upward movement and potentially rise to around $6,664 .
Note: The S&P 500 currently has a significant impact on the markets, especially cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ). Therefore, a potential rise in the S&P 500 could positively influence Bitcoin as well.
First Target: $6,664
Second Target: $6,723
Stop Los(SL): $6,499
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
SPX US🌎The first wave of the current impulse has ended, and we are now in the second.
The second wave's target has been met—the gap has been closed.
A breakout of 6870 will confirm that we are entering the third wave.
This marking fits well with the New Year's rally.
Also, the expectation of a Fed rate cut, as well as the end of the shutdown, will support the bullish momentum.
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Nov 20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Dual labor signals hit premarket: The delayed September employment report and weekly jobless claims land at the same time — a rare setup that can jolt both yields and equities.
🛒 Housing + recession gauges follow shortly after, giving traders a full macro pulse before midday.
⚠️ Reminder: Some October data (leading indicators) may still be affected by shutdown delays.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — U.S. Employment Report (Delayed Sept)
• Payrolls: 50,000
• Unemployment Rate: 4.3%
• Wages: 0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y
Treat this like a fresh NFP — major market mover.
⏰ 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)
Actual: 227,000
Weekly update on cooling/tightening labor conditions.
⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov)
Actual: 1.5 vs –12.8 prior
Important for gauging demand softness vs stabilization.
⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Oct)
Actual: 4.10M vs 4.06M forecast
Clean read on rate-sensitive housing momentum.
⏰ 10:00 AM — Leading Economic Indicators (Oct)
Actual: –0.3%
⚠️ May still be subject to shutdown-related reporting delays.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #jobs #housing #labor #markets #PMI #investing #stocks
Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (21 NOV)Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (21 NOV)
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED is expected not to cut rates in December, and the uncertainty around when rate cuts may resume in 2026 is adding pressure. After yesterday’s intraday crash, overall market anxiety has increased significantly.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price tapped the monthly FVG level around 588.5, which holds significant liquidity. In my view, this zone may set up the foundation for a potential Friday bounce.
📌 Game Plan – Prediction
I expect two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Black Line):
Price may consolidate and range between 597–588, creating choppy intraday price action.
Scenario 2 (Red Line):
Price may retrace toward 578.5, then recover and move back above the 588 level.
💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
US Stock Market Danger SignalThere are more and more bearish signals coming in for Nasdaq and S&P 500. Big names started selling, more reports about possible correction, FED staying instead of cutting, market breadth is worse and close to previous correction and now the price is below the trendline.
I will go short with a close stop, do not want to risk too much.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setups for Thu (Nov 20th)Market Bias Analysis
The current short-term bias is constructively bullish, yet it remains contingent on upcoming events. Recent momentum has been bolstered by Nvidia's exceptional earnings report and a significant intraday reversal in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). As long as the 6,670–6,680 range holds during any pullbacks, the path of least resistance appears to be upward. It is important to note that the broader daily trend is still bullish, unless we see a decisive breach below the key demand zone of 6,520–6,510 in the ES.
Market Overview
In a notable shift following a four-day decline, today's trading session exhibited a renewed bullish sentiment. The E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) printed a robust green daily candle, bouncing off a low of approximately 6,622.00 yesterday to close near 6,740.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart reveals that the recent selloff has established a lower high without breaking the prior significant higher low. The reaction low remains comfortably above the daily 1.272 extension cluster situated around 6,521.25. On the 4-hour chart, the price action has transitioned from a pattern of lower lows to a new higher low, currently pushing into the Price Quotient Median (PQM) and Price Quotient High (PQH) band, just below previous 4-hour supply levels. Observing the 1-hour chart, today's trading reflected a definitive trend day upward, characterized by a consistent series of higher lows and higher highs, culminating the session near the 1-hour 1.272 Fibonacci extension at 6,743.75.
Macroeconomic factors played a crucial role in this market turnaround, particularly after Nvidia reported stunning Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, generating approximately $57 billion in revenue. The company’s strong AI-driven outlook and positive after-hours performance alleviated concerns that the recent downturn in technology stocks signified the onset of a broader unwinding of the AI bubble. This development contributed to a rally in index futures as the session drew to a close.
Nonetheless, the overarching theme remains one of valuation pressures and interest rate concerns. Despite breaking a four-session losing streak, market participants are poised for tomorrow’s data, which will be pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory moving forward.
Scheduled Events (Tomorrow – Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025)
Tomorrow’s docket is heavy and directly relevant for ES:
• 8:30 a.m. ET – September Employment Situation (delayed jobs report)
The September nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, postponed by the government shutdown, are finally released. This is the only full jobs report the Fed will have before its December meeting, and markets are treating it as a major verdict on the labour market.
• Other U.S. data (during the morning/early afternoon)
Various calendars flag building permits / housing data, regional manufacturing (e.g., Philadelphia Fed), and existing home sales clustered through the U.S. session – all secondary to the jobs report but able to add fuel if they confirm or contradict the labour story.
• Fed speakers / meetings
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has a scheduled fireside chat around midday (12:40 p.m. ET).
• The Fed also has a closed Board meeting at 1:15 p.m. ET and a two-day Cleveland Fed financial-stability conference that can generate headlines.
Net: the jobs report is the main event; Fed comments will colour the move rather than drive it on their own.
Setups (A++ Concepts)
These are two high-conviction, rule-style ideas you can plug into your own framework. Price levels are exact from your charts.
A++ Setup 1 – Continuation Long from Value Pocket
Entry trigger concept:
Look for a sweep into the chosen band (e.g., wick into 6,690–6,695 or down into 6,663–6,668) followed by a strong 15m/5m bullish close back above 6,700. That shows buyers defending value and rejecting a deeper rotation into S3.
Risk / invalidation:
Structural invalidation if ES closes the hour below 6,652.50 (Y-POC) and cannot reclaim 6,668. In practice, a tight stop can sit just under 6,652.00 if entering from 6,690–6,705, or under 6,645.00 if using the deeper S2 pocket.
Targets:
• TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272)
• TP2: 6,777.00 (1H 1.618)
• TP3: 6,813.50 (1H 2.0)
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A++ Setup 2 – Short Fade from 1H Extension Cluster
Entry zone:
Primary sell pocket: 6,777.00–6,813.50
(1H 1.618 to 2.0 extension cluster.)
Risk / invalidation:
Structural invalidation above 6,825–6,830 (clear 1H/4H acceptance beyond the 2.0 extension).
A practical stop can sit around 6,828.00 if entering inside the band.
Targets:
• TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272 / prior extension)
• TP2: 6,683.50–6,690.00 (NYPM high / S1 top)
• TP3: 6,659.00–6,664.75 (VWAP/value pocket S2)
Narrative:
If Nvidia’s beat triggers a euphoric push straight into the upper fib level but the tape immediately rejects that strength, the market is saying “good news already in the price.” This setup expresses the view that the real gravity is lower, back toward value and potentially into S3 if macro data disappoint.
Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (19 NOV)Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (19 NOV)
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment appears bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED may pause rate cuts in December, which has contributed to recent selling pressure and possible hedging flows. However, with the U.S. government reopening last week, we will begin receiving updated economic data again. If employment data weakens and CPI comes in low or stable, it could trigger renewed bullish momentum.
NVDA earnings will be released today after market close. If NVDA beats expectations, this could trigger an impulsive bullish move for both QQQ and SPY. If earnings miss, that may create strong bearish sentiment across the market.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price tapped the 595.5 level and bounced cleanly from there. A strong bullish candle close has appeared on NQ, indicating solid upward momentum for the day.
📌 Game Plan – Prediction
I am buying calls targeting 613.5 first. I will also keep a runner for a potential move toward 625 in case NVDA reports strong earnings. That could generate significant bullish momentum, potentially pushing price toward new all-time highs. My runner is positioned for that potential after hours continuation.
💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
Similar Pattern for $SPXSimilar pattern for SPX from Aug 2023 - Sep 2024 as Oct 2024 - Nov 2025
Hold from 50¢ to $20 price target
Should reach by end of Dec 2025 / January 2026 according to this pattern
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
📉 Manufacturing + housing cluster hits premarket: Philly Fed, Starts, and Permits all drop at 8:30 — a rare combo that can shift the recession narrative quickly.
⚠️ Shutdown-lag still in play: Housing Starts, Building Permits, and the delayed Trade Balance report may not publish due to the Oct 1–Nov 14 shutdown backlog.
📘 FOMC Minutes in the afternoon: Markets focus on cut-timing language, inflation persistence, and financial-conditions assessment.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing (Nov)
Forecast: 3.0 vs –12.8 prior
One of the top-tier regional recession indicators.
⏰ 8:30 AM — Housing Starts (Oct)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Building Permits (Oct)
⚠️ Both reports may be delayed due to ongoing data backlog from the federal shutdown.
If released, they move rates, homebuilders, and cyclicals.
⏰ 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug, delayed report)
Forecast: –$61.0B vs –$78.3B prior
Lower impact due to being a stale report, but can still nudge GDP tracking.
⏰ 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (Oct Meeting)
The day’s biggest confirmed market catalyst.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #recession #housing #rates #manufacturing #FOMC #markets #investing
BTC SPX Ratio At Its LimitsAs BTC has matured, it has revealed its limits relative to SPX. Any time the price rises above 15, a correction follows.
While it has not yet cracked I find myself violating my own rules again and compelled to share this chart with you BEFORE the crack.
Markets are volatile and I am simply trying to keep people from getting hurt. Do not make the mistake of thinking BTC is a safe asset.
Bulls best to take profits.
Click boost, follow, subscribe, and let me help you navigate these crazy markets.
Sell you stocks! -227.20% the secreat ATH finder
We reached the secret Fibonacci level (-227.20%) on SPX.
Something big is going on.
This level worked perfectly to spot 2021 ATH on the SPX and now seems to be happening again.
I sold the majority of my stocks. What are you doing?
Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (17 NOV)Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (17 NOV)
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment appears bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED may pause rate cuts in December, which has contributed to recent selling pressure and possible hedging flows. However, with the U.S. government reopening last week, we will start receiving updated economic data again. If employment data weakens and CPI comes in low or stable, it could trigger renewed bullish momentum.
NVDA will report earnings this Wednesday after market close. I will be watching closely in my view, if NVDA were to miss expectations, both QQQ and SPY could see a strong retracement. However, I think this is unlikely. I expect solid earnings growth and believe the ongoing AI cycle continues to support upside.
Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump administration aims to finalize its trade agreement with China by Thanksgiving (November 27). This could bring further bullish sentiment into the market.
📈 Technical Analysis
The market showed a strong bounce on Friday after tapping the 599 level. RSI has also reset, meaning price is no longer overbought. We remain inside the weekly range, and price has now touched the 0.75 max discount zone for the second time.
📌 Game Plan – Prediction
A 1H candle close above 613 on QQQ will confirm bullish momentum, setting the next target at 618. If we get a clean 1H close above 613, I will be buying calls. After hitting 618, price may pull back slightly before eventually pushing toward 625 and potentially all-time highs around 637.
💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
S&P500 close to confirming the new Bear Cycle.The S&P500 index (SPX) broke below its 1D MA50 again yesterday (even closed the day below) and is showing clear signs of weakness at least for the short-term.
This can't be ignored as it may be transferred to the long-term time-frames where the market has been forming a Bearish Divergence on its 1W RSI since October 27. RSI Lower Highs against the market's Higher Highs.
This is similar to the November 15 2021 1W RSI Bearish Divergence, which led to one last quick rally and 1.5 month later the Bull Cycle topped and the 2022 inflation crisis Bear Cycle started.
The signal was given by a weekly closing below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), which has been the market's natural Support in the past 5 months and also during every major Bullish Leg of the Bull Cycle.
As a result, if the index closes a 1W candle below its 1D MA100, we will call the start of a new Bear Cycle, potentially aiming for the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed after a -27.62% correction. Our Target Zone for the next long-term buying will be 5300 - 5000, assuming the top is already in. If not, the -27.62% decline will be re-adjusted to the new top.
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PRE-LONDON CONDITIONS — DXY Range-Bound, Yields Slide, ES HeavyU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds a tight 98.99–99.59 range in a third consecutive inside bar.
U.S. 10-year yield drops ~1.01% in Asia.
U.S. 2-year yield falls ~1.27%.
S&P 500 futures (ES) extend lower toward the 6.571 fractal.
Gold tests support after filling imbalance.
Volatility remains elevated.
DXY — Dollar Index
Dollar stays inside 98.991–99.591.
Inside-bar stack remains unbroken.
Price sits near the 0.6 premium zone.
Neutral until London breaks the range.
Yields — 10Y & 2Y
10Y yield: -1.01% in Asia → long-end compression.
2Y yield: -1.27% → dovish policy tone.
Curve: both ends lower → risk-off positioning.
ES — S&P 500 Futures
ES moves lower toward 6.571.
Yesterday’s high-volatility expansion continues.
Tone remains defensive.
Gold — Safety Premium
Gold fills imbalance and presses into support.
Break = active safety flows.
Hold = passive bid.
Volatility
VIX closed pre-London.
Futures hold elevated regime.
Conditions favor fast intraday expansions.
Calendar Risk
Medium-tier data ahead.
Yesterday’s partial data production repeats → limited visibility.
Expect flow-driven moves until major prints arrive.
Execution View
DXY bias neutral inside range.
Yields down + ES down = risk-off.
Gold support = key inflection.
London expansion outside 98.99–99.59 sets direction.
Trade second move, not first spike.
Summary:
Dollar trapped. Yields lower. ES heavy. Gold at support.
Fragile pre-London environment; London’s first expansion defines the session.
— CORE5DAN
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025🔮 SPY & SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
⚠️ Shutdown backlog still unresolved: Several October reports scheduled for Tuesday (Import Prices, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization) remain at high risk of delay, which keeps macro visibility muddy and makes equities more sensitive to yields + positioning.
🏠 Housing sentiment check: Homebuilder confidence is one of the few confirmed releases, giving the market a clean read on construction demand and rates pressure.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index (Oct)
⏰ 8:30 AM — Import Price Index ex-Fuel (Oct)
⏰ 9:15 AM — Industrial Production (Oct)
⏰ 9:15 AM — Capacity Utilization (Oct)
⚠️ All four reports remain at risk of non-release due to the Oct 1–Nov 14 shutdown impact.
If they publish, they directly affect inflation expectations and recession probabilities.
⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug, delayed report)
Older data, but could matter slightly since it’s been stuck in the backlog.
⏰ 10:00 AM — Homebuilder Confidence (Nov)
Forecast: 37 (prior 37)
The only fresh and confirmed economic print of the morning.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #SPY #SPX #trading #macro #inflation #housing #manufacturing #markets #rates #investing
Megaphone Broadening Top Likely on SPXOver the last few months, the market has been increasingly difficult to trade as it searches for direction. Stop losses were triggered for longs on Oct 10, and shorts were equally liquidated on the run up beginning Oct 27th. What has formed is a broadening top, confirmed by two points of touch on each side of the pattern.
Broadening patterns can go in both directions, but supporting information suggests this is the end of the bull market:
On the weekly chart, there is a MACD cross.
There is a clearly defined 5 wave structure from the October 2022 bottom. It is a textbook example of Elliot Wave Theory.
Multiple analysts have shown that stock valuations are near historical extremes. It is highly likely that the market is in an AI bubble.
How am I trading this? I have sold all long positions. I am swinging puts that I will close out at the bottom of the megaphone. Once a breakout occurs, a pullback is highly likely to follow, even going so far as to return inside the pattern (60% of the time). If a pullback does occur, I'll load up on long dated puts to profit off a potential bear market.
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Tue (Nov 18th)ES experienced a notable decline, concluding the day with a sharp downturn but managed a late-session rebound off a significant demand zone. At this juncture, it appears to be a robust corrective phase within an overarching uptrend, with a reasonable probability of a bounce or a range-bound trading day ahead, barring any unexpected developments from data releases or commentary from Federal Reserve speakers.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, November 18, 2025, the economic calendar is unusually packed for a Tuesday, as various U.S. data are set to be released following delays caused by a government shutdown. Key indicators to watch that could influence ES during the New York session include the import and export price indexes for October at 8:30 AM ET, industrial production and capacity utilization figures also for October at 9:15 AM ET, and the NAHB housing market index for November at 10:00 AM ET.
Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials, including Barr, Waller, Williams, and Kashkari, are scheduled to speak throughout the day. The market is particularly attuned to their insights regarding the likelihood of another rate cut, especially in light of the recently released October FOMC minutes and this week’s jobs report.
Given the abundance of potential market-moving information, I would consider the period from 9:15 to 10:15 AM ET as a critical window for "headline risk" tomorrow.
The recent market decline can largely be attributed to macroeconomic factors:
The S&P 500 cash index ended the day down approximately 0.9%, with the Dow falling around 1.2% and the Nasdaq declining by about 0.8%. This pullback has moved the indices further away from their all-time highs established last month.
The selling pressure was particularly acute among mega-cap technology stocks and the AI sector. Major players such as Nvidia, Apple, Palantir, and AMD faced heavy trading as investors began to question whether the recent surge in tech stocks, driven by AI enthusiasm, had outpaced underlying fundamentals ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release on Wednesday.
Market sentiment was further dampened by a noteworthy prediction from Stifel's chief strategist, who suggested a potential 5% drop in the S&P 500, targeting a level around 6,350 in the coming months. This outlook was based on concerns regarding high valuations and uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s future policy as delayed economic data begins to materialize.
Interestingly, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped slightly towards ~4.13% , indicating that today’s selloff was more of a de-risking/profit-taking maneuver specific to equities rather than a reflection of widespread risk aversion typically signaled by bond market movements.
From a technical perspective on the ES futures:
Intraday trading patterns reflected a continuation of last week’s trend of lower highs and lower lows. Prices faltered near the 6,800–6,805 mark during the overnight session before entering a clear downtrend through the morning. The volume accelerated during the late-morning selloff, ultimately reaching a low around the 6,658–6,660 band, which coincides with established daily demand zones.
Following this drop, we observed a pronounced shift in behavior: significant buying volume surged at the lows, leading to a rejected price at that demand zone and a controlled short-covering rally back above 6,690, approaching the 6,700–6,705 range as the day closed. The Nasdaq exhibited a similar trajectory, with a heavy selloff subsequently followed by a recovery.
Structurally, today’s activity reflects:
A strong continuation of downside movement, stemming from last week’s lower-high structure and macro-driven de-risking, culminating in a liquidity flush into a previously identified demand pocket followed by short-covering toward the close.
From a broader perspective, is this the beginning of a genuine downtrend?
On the daily chart, ES remains within a larger uptrend originating from the summer lows. A higher peak above 6,900 was established in late October, with the current pullback representing a decline of approximately 3–4% from that peak. Today's trading reached the 6,650–6,670 support region, which previously served as a vital higher low space, before closing back above it. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over but are beginning to flatten, indicating they are not yet deeply oversold.
In contrast, the shorter-term 4-hour and 1-hour views present a more bearish outlook: a sequence of lower highs has formed, and the retest of prior higher low levels appears to be underway. Short-term moving averages have shifted downward, and 4-hour momentum remains negative, albeit with initial signs of a slight positive divergence compared to new price lows.
In summary:
I interpret this phase as a significant corrective downswing within a larger uptrend rather than the onset of a new bear market. The potential for a more substantial correction exists, particularly if Nvidia’s earnings disappoint or if the run of delayed economic data proves weak. However, the day's trading indicates more of a necessary adjustment rather than the onset of a catastrophic decline, aligning with institutional views that this pullback signifies a "healthy reset" following a robust advance, rather than an indication of a market bubble bursting.
Should ES close below the 6,650 mark on a daily basis and subsequently begin to print lower highs under that level, I would increase my assessment of the risk of a transition into a more enduring downtrend, with targets around the 6,350–6,400 range over the coming weeks, echoing Stifel's projections. For the time being, however, buyers continue to defend this crucial daily support zone.
Key zones to monitor for tomorrow, in the futures market:
I identify the following support zones:
6,658–6,650: This region marks today’s New York PM low and aligns with the prior day’s low. It serves as the first critical intraday support level. As long as ES maintains closes above this area on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, I consider the movement to be a corrective phase rather than a broader downtrend.
