I wont be surprised to see 3900 test and then one more up from the bull flag. If 3900 holds we should see 4100+ move on the last leg up. The amount of puts is insane, unless I/we dont know something, its a retail/perma-bears trying to short every top and you know what happens to those puts when P/C ratio is so up. I also start to see some really out of the money...
I have marked resistance to take and support to break. Did a quick long from 3972.5 long and already out at 3983.50. I will jump on a wagon if it break either side, so far no mans land, need to see the real move here. My thinking is that we get a fakeout in am and sell off into 3900. But I will be looking at the resistance test (if it breaks) and will do a long...
Needs to break 3950-52SPX to continue lower. In triangle now, below maj resistance trendline. Looking to buy 3907-13 for a bounce back to 3950-55 level, otherwise holding my swing short Topping is a process...
SPX outside reversal, evening star on the daily The close is below highs from last few days, bearish close. Tomorrow is a panic cycle day on SPX and Dow has one on Thursday. If there is a strong sell tomorrow, it will last at least 2 days and wont be one day event. Remember this if will try to catch the knife, IF we get a good sell tomorrow Im short
The S&P 500 ( US 500 ) has experienced a remarkable 15% rally since its lows on October 13. This was the second bear market rally in 2022, after the US stock market officially entered a bear market in May. If we are currently undergoing a two-month bear market rally similar to the one saw last summer, the S&P 500 index is expected to peak at about 4,050 points on...
My weekend update was banned as noted other place, Im re-posting now: I have cycles top on Tuesday and choppy period into 22nd low The way I see here is that the price is about to finish the wave 2 and 3rd wave will bring the price down into third week of Dec. Dont see and Santa Rally this year, it should be a Santa Crappy. Nov month should be lowest monthly...
Welcome to the BasicTrading channel. My name is Philip and in todays analysis I quickly go over the situation which we currently have on the S&P500. I will analyse the asset both from a weekly and daily timeframe to show you the best possible trading opportunities. If you enjoyed this analysis, let me know in the comment section which asset I should analyse...
Interesting how those Bollinger bands expanded and moved against each other. Last time I saw this, it didnt held up for long. I wont short this till tomorrow, I want VIX close below the lower Bollinger band and SPX above for a sell signal. Its over 3933SPX now, should push to 3959-60SPX and if taken, we will see 4010-20SPX I mentioned last night
Today the CPI numbers got released and turned out good! The DXY and Yields are falling of a cliff and the SPX is making a strong bounce. But is it enough? We need to see the downwards line to be broken and retested. If we break it and are able to stay above it we are really clear to see more upwards momentum. Short and simple but this is the play. Trade safe!
CMP - 3922.23 Blue one marked is Price Action. Black one marked is Price History. . Anyone above can happen - but both concludes at Sideways (3600-4000 range) if the market has bottomed. My opinion says that it has bottomed out near 3563 range. This (sideways) might likely continue till January, 2023 . I would like to go with Price History.
SPX must close above 3907 today to confirm the breakout! Bounced off resistance on this move, super extended and overbought now. Resistance is at 3933SPX, broken trend channel test from the bottom I have trimmed my longs (from yesterday's 3755-60ES entry) before the CPI, oh well, cant win them all. SPX is still in its opening channel Tomorrow is a directional...
Want to make a special disclaimer here: Do not bet your house on this if you're trading futures (ETF option market is closed) as I might be completely wrong! I want to present you a possibility of another mini crash tomorrow (Oct 13th like) maybe even limit down! If CPI comes hot tomorrow am that could produce another huge sell off like we saw on Oct 13th. CPI...
So far so good, want 3686-3700 tested, otherwise there is a lot of support at 3660-66SPX zone
Watching the next resistance to hold 50 or 61.8% retracement
He is a bit cleared out chart for my long term view on the SPX. I think (as was saying all year long), that we will revisit 2020 lows and ideally make a higher low at 2855SPX or if super weak low 2400 (less odds at this point) by Mar/Apr 2023. If there is a H&S playing out and we will know soon enough, then the price should get down to 3k zone My ideal target...
If this H&S plays out/triggers we will see the price in 3k zone For now there is a support box for the move lower. Expect unexpected, as the price was tested so many times on the downside, it can break next time it does test it. Also if this is a start of the wave 3 down, it will be fast and with min retracements, so be careful when trying catching the...
SPX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.41% which declined from 3.56% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 80th percentile, and according to VIX we are on 65th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a volatile market. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we...
Im looking for an ABC move up tomorrow for a new high 3815-35SPX (if we wont take Fri lows) Ideally we bottom in ES deeper then the cash price and cash will get its 50% retracement hit in am tomorrow, then we go up to close the Sunday opening gap Then we should fall hard into 34 handle territory. My timing is a low in Nov for the year and Jan high, then Mar/Apr...