Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Retracement modeIt has been a while since I pulled up this chart. Missed on the bullish breakouts twice in 2024. Thing is that it is very obvious the technical indicators are stretched and long in the teeth... and a recent spike ended with a consolidation.
Given all these, a break down of the condolidation support would spell a strong retracement.
Coming soon... akan datang.
STI
Is it difficult to make money in STI ?Plotting a line graph over this random 10 years period, we can see that if one invest money into the STI, he made a loss of around 26% (if he sells out but breaks even at best if he holds till now).
Conversely, in the same time frame of 10 years, if he would diversify into US and invest in the SPX index (as often encouraged by legendary investor, Warren Buffett), he would make a good profits of 171% profits or roughly 17% per year.
However, it is not really fair to compare this two index since the composition of companies are very different plus the market cap of each index is also worlds apart. Not forgetting the liquidity component.
As such, the devils is in the details and that is where investors spend time researching individual company and look for hidden gem. Companies such as DBS ,dividends rich companies like REITS such as AIMS ,etc.
Each market is unique on its own and being a local here in SG offers benefits of researching into banks like DBS, OCBC where one can go on site and see and feel for himself. Same things for REITS where one can visits the malls, office buildings , industrial parks, etc to have a feel of the business and footfall.
Investing in US on the other hand is totally different since most research is done online and whatever is published has to be taken on its own merits.
In a world of uncertainty, one cannot put all his eggs into one basket and thus diversification is crucial to one's investment portfolio from geographical regions to sectors to asset classes. Of course, your investment capital plays a huge part since it is futile to spread too thin just for diversification purposes.
That brings the question of having multiple sources of income and adhere to savings components (not lottery or casino wins) to assure recurring income that you can use to reinvest into the market when opportunity avails itself.
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush Part VEWS really going to do it this time it seems... close below the support line.
This is premature on the weekly chart, but heads up, two things to happen...
First, a close below the support means a breakdown underway, especially if it is accompanied with a lower low.
Second, there needs to be a late week rebound strong enough to get it back above support line. Then there is half a chance for a reversal.
MACD appears not as bearish really.
VolDiv is somewhat bullish to be honest.
I'd watch this closely...
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush Part IVAs previously posted, BEAR. The thing is, since the last post, the EWS (and other indices) made a sucker rally that pulled in the bulls. And a few weeks later, they burned.
This time, the burn is shown by a failed breakout that is followed through the other side. Technical indicators are now in full support as cross downs are registered. Critical supports are broken. New downside targets shown.
SIA shows sign of price peakRecent rebound in SIA shows multiple high volume in 5 mins chart yesterday with limited price up.
This indicates the big boys are churning at the high price to creates Fear-Of-Missing-Out to retail investors to place order in.
When there are enough buyers at the lower pricing, the big boys will start selling for profit taking.
SINGAPORE STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush part IIIJust to highlight the Singapore going into technical recession]news first... that a technical recession is in the horizon, closer than we even realize.
Otherwise, the EWS SG Singapore ETF, is technically challenged, with imminent downside.
1. Lower high made, and a possible imminent lower low to come in the next weeks. Breakdown below the red line is a lower low;
2. Downside target 1 hit. One more much further;
3. Last week's candlestick has momentum for more downside;
4. MACD crossed down and below zeroline; and
5. VolDiv continues to deteriorate...
All these points to breaking a lower low, and thereafter more downside to the lower target
SINGAPORE STI ETF (EWS) - Royal Flush part IIAs expected previously, the Singapore STI (EWS) hit the first target range. It appears to have bounced off a bit in the short week (Friday is a Public Holiday, being Vesak Day). However, the technical indicators accentuate that there is more downside to come...
Breaking down below the support to form a lower low is confirmation for the lower target to be the next downside target.
SINGAPORE STI ETF (EWS) - Royal FlushMultiple signals all aligned to much more downside in the Singapore STI...
1. A lower high. Watch for the lower low incoming!
2. Break out and then break back into the consolidation range. This is the second time, and expect an extrusion through the bottom of the range.
3. MACD lower high, and crossed down. Bearish oops, look from crossing down into bear territory soon.
4. VolDiv crossed down.
Targets drawn.
On the other hand, the SG10Y bond yield just broke out too. This represents a flight to safety already in the making.
Heads up!!!
Singapore Airlines (SIA : C6L) targets $7.00 and attempts to breLong term DOWNTREND SINCE 010908
Medium term UPTREND since 111021
Short term UPTREND since 311022
Singapore Airlines is 1 of 8 component stocks supporting the rise of the STI at the start of 2023.
The long signal for this recent run started on 311022 at the price of $5.21.
$7.00 is a significant target as it marked the start of last 7 year decline of the stock to a low of $3.20.
PIVOT 5.74
Long positions above $5.74 for $7.00 and $8.65
Short positions below $5.74 for $4.89 and $3.20
DBS rallies ahead of tomorrow's earnings reportThe stock has been performing well ahead of its earnings reports, thanks to the news that DBS will be the bank to utilise MaxxDigital – a digital asset platform that provides risk and FX solutions for institutions. Whilst Singapore’s regulators continue to clamp down on crypto trading for retailers, Singapore wants to become a digital-asset hub within the financial sector – and this could be the first step of many which help them do just that.
DBS rose 3.6% on Friday following the announcement and has extended those gains to around 6% at the time of writing from Friday’s low.
According to Reuters, 13 analysts recommend DBS stock for a ‘buy’ (4 of which are a strong buy) with 4 holds and no sell recommendations. The stock currently trades at 34.58 and has a median price target of 39.11 (+13%).
DBS Daily Chart:
The daily chart shows that DBS performed a strong breakout (with high volume) from its sideways range after prices found support at the 200-day and 50-day EMA’s. And that suggests it could be part of the bullish trend from the July low. However, there are a couple of warning signs that it may need to retrace a little before continuing higher.
A bearish pinbar formed on Monday with low volume, and yesterday’s price action struggling to convincingly push higher. Gap resistance, $35 and the monthly R1 pivot point are nearby and RSI (2) is overbought - which can indicate a near-term turning point. With that said, the RSI(14) is over 50 and trending higher with prices, which is another reason we suspect any move lower is part of a retracement before prices head for the high around 36.30.
Of course, earnings can be full of surprises and we may need to see DBS beat estimates for it to trade directly higher. Otherwise – assuming earnings is not too disappointing – it could help with a desired pullback, where we would seek bullish setups around the monthly pivot / prior breakout range.
Singapore STI ETF (EWS) signals a rough 2022The Singapore bourse STI ETF, EWS, has a very ominous outlook for the next couple of months into the end of 2022.
Hyperinflation could be the current trending killer, but seems like more is likely to add on. Not sure what shoe will drop, but the charts tell it as it is...
April and May ended badly entering into a range that saw May break down of that range briefly. The monthly technicals are showing a lot of underlying weakness, and the first downside target is shown.
The lower range band must hold, and is quite likely to be tested and should hold (at least seen at this point). Otherwise, a low more downside will ensue...
Heads up for the next half of 2022 Singapore!
STI (EWS) in Primary Downtrend (TD Sequential)The Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) is in a primary Downtrend.
This is observed and concluded from the TD Sequential analysis.
Referring to the monthly chart for the STI ETF (EWS)...
The EWS in recent months had broken down hard, and bracked below the TDST support line within the downward TD Sequential. Now, typically, this series is called the Buy Setup, as it "times" the downtrend for a reversal. The reversal came in a short month (9th candle), and the following month (August) closed with a candlestick bearish in close, and also bearish in pattern where there is a long top tail that is at least twice the length of the body.
Monthly technical indicators are bearish too, although not extremely.
The next couple of months should see the EWS, and STI move lower. A very critical support is about 16.5-16.6, where the lows of the GFC and the Pandemic routs align a supporting trendline.
BEARISH Wave!
STI Sneak Peek Noted the current Double Top formation on the STI (Straits Times Index, Singapore)
Oddly, 4 April was the advanced marked date for a top (hence, red time line).
Previous marked dates (thing lines) and forward marked dates (thick dotted lines) are there. It is intriguing to see the uncanny accuracy over the years.
AIY.SGX_Retracement Trade_LongENTRY: 9.55
SL: 8.91
TP: 10.10
- ADX>20
- RSI>50,RSI<70
- Daily RS +ve
- Daily FFI -ve
- Daily MACD -ve
- Weekly RS +ve
- Weekly FFI -ve
- Weekly MACD -ve
- Retraced to 61.8% fib level, and rebounded on 8 Oct 2021 with volume.
- Looks like volume dry up today after yesterday selling volume, which is a possible bullish sign.
- Earnings on 21 Oct 2021 to watch out for which should be good based on the numerous news they accumulated over the months.
DBS also has downside riskDBS, the biggest component of the STI, appears to have great downside risk.
Breaking below support of 29.60, after a lower high, means a lower low is put in place.
The weekly chart already had a Bearish Engulfing last week, and this week (left with 1.25 days) closing down below 29.60 to end the week would be another toppish candlestick pattern called the Three Outside Down pattern. Bad for tops.
MACDs and RPMs look like shite... heads up.
Oh, btw... may be a couple of weeks for this to pan out IF it really breaks down.
STI MUST HOLD 3083A day long signal at 3186 on 010621 resumes the STI on the short term uptrend for 3406. Support/Stops are now at the supertrend line at 3083.
LONG TERM UPTREND SINCE 010321
MEDIUM TERM UPTREND SINCE 071120
SHORT TERM UPTREND SINCE 010621
PIVOT 3083
Long positions above 3083 targets 3406 and 3664
Short positions below 3083 targets 3024 and 2653
youtube link
SG: STI gonna snook manyBullish case for the STI
1. Technicals are looking bullish
2. Quick recovery after failing the 55EMA
3. Waiting to break out of trend line resistance
Bearish case for the STI
1. IF it breaks down the support of the last low, it is a goner.
and somehow, IF I had to make a call, against obvious odds, I see that in higher and unexpected probability of a down draft.
Let's see by the end of the week... heads up anyways!
STI ENDS MARCH 2021 BULLISHThe STI establishes a new uptrend on ALL TIME FRAMES after it closed at 3181 with a significant break of its long term downtrend on the monthly Supertrend resistance of 3108.
Referring to my STI Matrix table, the stocks that are on multiple time frame UPTRENDS include JMHUSD, UOB, DBS, OCBC, VENTURE, SEMBCORP IND, ST ENG and MAPLETREE COM TR. These are the components providing the tailwind to the STI for the past month. The REITS are building a base led by MAPLETREE COM TR and the banks are very bullish. Property counters like CAPITALAND, CITYDEV and UOL are showing strength.
LONG TERM UPTREND SINCE 010321
MEDIUM UPTREND SINCE 071120
SHORT TERM UPTREND SINCE 250221
PIVOT 3115
Long positions above 3115 for 3411 and 3664
Short positions below 3115 for 3037 and 2974
STI BUILDS ON THE BREAKOUT, 3406 NEXTAll short, medium and Long term trend time frames of the STI are pointing up after the breakout of 3108 on the monthly Supertrend line. The STI is now on wave 3 of the daily buy signal issued on 041120 at 2506. The current upside target will be at 3188 that coincides with the supertrend break on the weekly charts on 150519 and 3406 on 050218 respectively.
PIVOT 3076
Long positions above 3076 target 3188 3406
Short positions below 3076 target 3011 2813
CAPITALAND JOINS LIST OF MEGA UPTREND STOCKSThe break of $3.63 from the long signal at $2.74 on 101120 has materialized with a strong close at $3.85 on 260321. The upside target is now 4.60 that was the level that Capitaland broke down on 010828 from its highs of 7.27 in 020407.
STI PROPERTY OUTLOOK : CAPITALAND & CITY DEVT 301120 (quantstrategic.com.sg)
Short term UPTREND since 101120
Medium UPTREND since 161120
Long term uptrend since 230321
PIVOT 3.45
Long positions above 3.45 for 4.60 and 5.75
Short positions below 3.45 for 3.25 and 2.37