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Stimulus

Look for mostly sideways to lower moves in $SPX $DOW and $NASDAQIn continuation with the moves lower from yesterday and the past few days, I am looking for continued moves lower. Ultimately, until we get a solidified stimulus package, there is no real reason for the market to be up this high. Given that, most likely we are not going to know what a stimulus package is going to look like until we know what the makeup of Congress and the Presidency looks like, and that won't happen until we get passed the election. That means any stimulus is not going to happen until after January, most likely. That is a bit down the road. Ultimately, I am looking for a test of the 3,400 first, then a push lower to 3,200. SPCFD:SPX
SP:SPXShort
by ByDHTaylor
Somebody tell Jerome Powell that the market is brokenThe US is in a crossroad. The FED has repeatedly insisted that fiscal stimulus is necessary for recovery but politics has taken center-stage. The Fed's balance sheet is now at a record high but investors aren't buying yet. Pelosi and Kudlow are still moving slowly to agreeing on a deal and that is having a negative effect of the equity markets. The US election is also having an impact as no one knows who might win this time round. To make matters worse, we can't trust the polls, courtesy of 2016. In addition to this, the US is in the third wave of covid19 cases. Therefore, from now to next week, I'll be only looking for selling opportunities. The S&P500 is currently holding on the February 2020 pivot High and it is unlikely it's going to bounce back.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
October 25 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,406.75 Excess Low; $3,470 Balance-Area High. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 40% of the rally that began after the September sell-off. During Last Week’s Action: Alongside waning fiscal stimulus hopes, U.S. index products failed to show continued confidence to explore higher. Instead, as the week progressed, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi walked back her deadline for a fiscal stimulus deal. After the initial drop on Monday, equity indices remained range bound until Thursday’s session saw responsive buyers establish an excess low at the conjunction of multiple visual references. The buying continued into Friday’s close, at the high-end of the weekly range. Overall, the market’s failure to range-extend, in either direction, is a sign of minimal conviction. Currently, the market is in the thick of an earnings season, elections are nearing, and stimulus talks are off-and-on. Given that the week ended in balance, a clear change in perception will be followed by successful range extension in either direction. Adding, given Thursday’s responsive buying, there are good odds the market may make another attempt higher, confirmed by range-extension above $3,470 in the S&P 500. If participants were to auction into the $3,406.75 excess low, then the odds of downside follow-through increase substantially. Fundamental: In its global weekly commentary, BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) suggested the most recent resurgence of COVID-19 is not a replay of the spring. bit.ly "We believe daily new infections are likely a fraction of the peaks then, and rising case counts are having a diminishing negative impact on mobility. The economic restart has been quicker than expected, but the part that remains will be hardest. We do not expect a similarly large hit to economic activity as seen in the spring.” Adding, however, the report noted that the economy is facing challenges as the pace of growth begins to slow. Risks to the near-term recovery include fading fiscal stimulus, a prolonged or worsened pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and election complications. Key Events: Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, New Home Sales. Tuesday: Durable Good Orders, House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Goods Trade Balance, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change. Thursday: GDP Growth Rate, Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ, GDP Price Index, Pending Home Sales, PCE Prices QoQ. Friday: Core PCE Price Index YoY, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final. Recent News: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday said the latest plan for aid is under review. reut.rs U.K.’s NHS is preparing to introduce a coronavirus vaccine soon after Christmas. bit.ly Commercial real estate, specifically office and lodging, faces greatest uncertainty. bit.ly Economy recovering slowly through October, but some sectors are still struggling. reut.rs Policy drive toward transformation of health insurance poses risk to profitability. bit.ly General Motors Co (NYSE: GM) investing $2 billion to build EVs in Tennessee. reut.rs Intel Corporation’s (NASDAQ: INTC) sale of memory business a credit positive. bit.ly Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) breakup may be needed to end antitrust violations. reut.rs China’s recovery lifted industrial commodities as its economy improved materially. bit.ly Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) raised its full-year outlook after a third quarter beat. reut.rs American Express Co (NYSE: AXP) issued a dismal outlook on travel, entertainment. reut.rs Unacceptably high unemployment, low rates of resource utilization to rein in yields. bit.ly Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP) reported a bigger-than-expected drop in profit. reut.rs American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL), Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) call for aid. reut.rs Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) released “Full Self Driving” software upgrade to drivers. reut.rs AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) resuming trials. reut.rs How blank-check acquirers could reshape emerging companies’ roles in markets. bit.ly Fintech startups broke apart financial services and now the sector is rebundling. bit.ly Texas Instruments Inc’s (NASDAQ: TXN) revenue outperforms, outlook improves. bit.ly China banking law changes will improve bank capital and formalize bank resolution. bit.ly Business activity rose to a 20-month high as pace of new growth and orders eased. reut.rs Courts rule against Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER), Lyft Inc (NASDAQ: LYFT). reut.rs Canada’s annual inflation rate rose in September, as retailer sales growth softened. reut.rs FDA has approved Gilead Sciences Inc (NASDAQ: GILD) antiviral drug remdesivir. cnb.cx Central bank digital currencies would compound current digital disruption for banks. bit.ly The 2020 election could permanently change the way the United States does voting. bit.ly Pandemic, remote work causes migration to small towns near public lands, resorts. bit.ly Almost 60% of mutual fund assets will be ESG by 2025, according to a PwC forecast. bit.ly Google Inc’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) dominance is reflected in search startup funding. bit.ly President Vladimir Putin saw no need for global oil producers to change supply. reut.rs More companies are offering earnings guidance, signaling adaptation to uncertainty. reut.rs The third quarter could be the ‘biggest quarter of growth’ in United States history. bit.ly Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE: VZ) beat estimates for its third-quarter profit. reut.rs Purdue Pharma LP agreed to plead guilty to criminal charges over prescription opioid. reut.rs European Union to cut Canada, Georgia and Tunisia from “white list” travel countries. reut.rs Key Metrics: Sentiment: 35.7% Bullish, 31.2% Neutral, 33.0% Bearish as of 10/21/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,051,710,147 as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 40.9% as of 10/23/2020. bit.ly Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
DXY Forecast (Pivotal info please read I apologize for volume)Here is my fundamental, technical, and news analysis of DXY . There are so many question remarks regarding the future of the US dollar forecasting a holding downtrend. I believe we will see the dollar drop to the September 1st low of 91.750. News Analysis Reports of the likely hood of the stimulus passing before the elections are slim. As a result volatility will increase with low sentiment pertaining to future strength. Reports of the US treasury report release announced further delay of the release. Delays have occurred due to COVID-19 and the elections. This is the likely cover for the under lying issue of the US heavy watch list of suspected countries engaging in currency manipulation. (Un-contracting trading of bilateral goods, unauthorized foreign aid, and unmatched account balance). US treasury report is set to release further information on investigation findings which if negative would effect the economy and sentiment immensely. Among these countries include Switzerland ( put back on the list) so that should be an interesting pair to watch. USD Index reported dropping .22% and expected to maintain that low the upcoming week. Stocks will be avoided adding more volatility to the dollar. Fundamental Reporters state “Banks imply bullish calendar week ahead” to avoid the first double dip recession in 40 years .Experienced traders know banks often play trickery. Banks focus on one thing and one thing only. Make more money. Unfortunately banks need to be funded as the main priority. We all know what happens when banks fall. This “implication” is simply to psychologically reassure traders to keep trading, falling into the fakeouts skewed by the money holders. Of course banks are going to reassure the general population a double dip won’t reoccur. Thus I will disregard this information until I see it play out. The Chinese Yuan has been dominating the Dollar for quite a while. As long as the Yuan heavily ways down on the Dollar, the Dollar will be negatively effected. Given China’s continued economic growth following hits from the pandemic, and the Dollars uncertainty we will continue to see the Yan dominate the Dollar. This in turn yields low sentiment. And of course the hot topic of the upcoming week for the US are the elections. If Biden’s chances grow stronger towards the end of the week we may see some positive growth as the Democrats will essentially demand a stimulus agreement. Who really knows where the US stands financially apart from the front office. One can only make speculations on the opposition. If the week begins and ends with candidate uncertainty we may see added volatility . Technical My 1hr technical chart view indicates the the dollar will drop to 91.750. We are currently seeing a push to form the lower low which will give me added confirmation of a true downtrend. The price must close below the horizontal trend I presented to fit my forecast criteria. I believe the the trend will move in a downward holding (short volatile candles) I hope everyone took the time to read this over! Below are my sources. Sources Reuters Investing.com Daily FX Netdania
TVC:DXY
by TNGTrading2021
4
DXY - Scenario 1 - Further Decline If Stimulus Is AgreedGood morning traders, All eyes are on the US stimulus negotiations taking place as we speak. We all know a stimulus package is on its way, it is just a matter of when and how large. If the Democrats and Republicans reach an agreement prior to the elections the USD is primed to fall lower. This is a big IF. There is a large gap between the two proposals, and agreeing on a package prior to the elections might not be the best move for the Democrats. It would make sense for them to hold off until Joe Biden becomes president, providing him with ammunition to re-inflate the US stock markets. News coming from the US suggests Nanci Pelosi is possibly looking at a rug pull, putting a brake on the negotiations. This is yet to be confirmed. If she does a rug pull the USD will most likely break to the upside of the negative trendline. However, on the chance a deal is reached or if the market anticipates a deal being reached in the near future, this scenario will possibly play out heading into the elections. This possible wave count is yet to complete wave 3 on the larger degree. A break below the 3rd minor wave would provide the green light for a sell opportunity. If you have any thoughts or questions please let us know.
TVC:DXY
by Trading_Tony
S&P Analysis Week of 10/18/2020 - Show Me the StimulusI'm not super excited about this week's setups for several reasons. The main reason, however, is that we are moving sideways and we are in between two major support and resistance levels. Usually, it's my opinion that traders should avoid sideways markets and wait for clarity and a high probability setup. I did try to point out some possible trades, but I think these could turn more into day trades rather than swing trades. There isn't a lot of room to hold onto positions if markets continue the whiplash and sideways movement. Sometimes that happens and a trader has to sit out a week or two until a high probability setup occurs. You don't have to be in a trade everyday. As usual, I keep my charts as simple as possible and focus on support and resistance areas (I ignore all the fancy indicators that can be confusing but also create false signals). This week it was a bit more difficult to make a simple chart because there is so much in play (including a broken major resistance that has not be retested). Also, the market may still want to test 3500 yet again because of the significance and because it was the last major breakdown area. This is the simplest and cleanest chart I could draw out. Prior to this week, I was not putting any sell trades unless they were very extreme because we are technically still in an uptrend. However, I think at the end of last week the market started to show weakness. The market has a ton of over head resistance and coming into a bearish wedge, so I wanted to point out at least a couple sell signals. I split trade setup #2 into 2 plays (A&B). 2A is a bit risky in my opinion because if it provides a signal (breakdown of diagonal support), then price might immediately come into support if the broken resistance is tested and confirms support. I still wanted to list it as a potential trade. The safer trade (2A) is if the broken resistance does not hold as support and we see further price declines. That would be the safer bet but keep in mind that there is strong support just below it. That is why all shorts are risky until we break the major support area. The bullish trade comes if we bounce off the broken resistance or off the major support. I don't see any other long trades unless we break all time highs (which I don't think is likely this week). I'm still 99% sure the broken resistance will be retested (and possibly this week). So you can understand why I don't like this week's setups. I'm not even confident I'll take a trade until we get more clarity and confirmation and or start breaking major resistance/support areas. I've been hearing a consistent theme amongst the trading community that we will not see any big moves prior to the election. Who knows what the market makers are planning. Good luck and be careful. If anyone sees better trade setups, please let me know. Otherwise please keep in mind that I am not 100% confident about this week. I'll post updates if this week starts to show better clarity. Remember when trading: "When it feels really wrong, it's probably right. And when it feels really right, it's probably wrong."
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
6
We Should Hit ATHs Soon. Stimulus?It has been a very long time since Intermediate wave 5 failed to move above the peak of Intermediate wave 3. With it being 2020 and the world on fire, maybe this is the exception. IMHO I doubt it. Wave 3 peaked in early September at 3588.11. I project not only will our current wave 5 surpass that, but my projection has the top around 3639. This is not unrealistic. The crazier part of the forecast is this top occurring before election day, more specifically around October 29. This is not much time considering about 75 hours of trading will occur between my marked end of Minor wave 4 on October 15. Minor wave 3 moved 45 hours. The ratio of Minor wave 3 hours to the projected Minor wave 5 hours is 0.6. This is just slightly below the average and median relationships for these waves which is around 0.73-0.83. This could also mean Minor wave 5 lasts less than 75 hours, give or take a few trading days. The target levels are still in line with those I projected months ago. I do not necessarily see a top above 3664, but we should get above 3610. The highest frequency of data points for a top are around 3639 so this is my official target. A potential contributing factor to such a run over a short amount of time could be actual passage of stimulus by the Congress, or continued hopium that finally fails to deliver by election day. On a side note I have Apple running up and above at least 133, possibly 140. When will both of these runups occur, around October 29. The close of trading on October 29 coincides with Apple's earnings call (my initial take is earnings may be much worse than expected). The drop I have occurring after this date will be massive (about 750 points on the S&P 500 Index). Likely contributors are election "surprise", delayed election results, legal fighting/winner uncertainty, failed stimulus and lame duck politicians, COVID 2.0/flu season, even more rioting, war in the world, or some other black swan. But don't worry, the drop will be temporary. I am forecasting a bottom somewhere in Q1 of 2021 and then ATHs again. I will keep posting updates as more waves are completed (or I think they complete and scrape egg off my face).
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
1
With BTC, Keep watching for sideways action until after electionBitcoin - $BTC - the side action may be the norm for the next 2-3 weeks until the election is out of the way. But, the government is set to add in another $1.7T in new money. This will push inflation levels. This is the very reason that Bitcoin - #BTC $BTC - was created. Because of that, I am looking for a long-term push with any new stimulus and investors looking for safer waters for their currency. The currency will continue to move higher relative the the USD simply because there is a finite amount of BTC whereas there is an infinite amount of USD about to be created via money creation and loans. Where will price stability be achieved? Will there ever be a balance? BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ByDHTaylor
1
APPL Due for A Correction Before Earnings?My Fellow Traders, Appreciate you taking the time to view my analysis, in which I hope you may find it beneficial. Please be sure to “LIKE” if you indeed find my analysis useful and/or find my analysis intriguing. Also, I’m new to charting game and the crypto/stock space. So, if you have any constructive criticism or tips, please share. Cheers & Happy Trading! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANALYSIS: APPL seems to be falling back to support around the $117.00 region, which could fail to hold due to the circus act that is going on in Congress regarding stimulus. Therefore, I am predicting APPL to have a slight correction before earnings as it has in the past, and then gear up for a strong move to the upside once the announcement of earnings. *Note: Any stimulus news would be a huge catalyst to the upside. So, keep your ears to the street regarding stimulus news.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by AB_Trading-Intelligence
BTCUSD looks set to follow the equity markets lower?The equity markets are about to get hammered, something I've been writing on. There was a decent surge in price last week in equities. They have faltered at higher levels approaching the all-time highs. BTC looks set to follow suit as it languishes at this higher level. I've used put options to take on the position so I'm good either way - as long as the market moves substantially. But, my preference was for a break above the $12k level. Let's see where today and tomorrow take us, but I'm thinking it will be lower.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ByDHTaylor
S&P Analysis Week of 10/11/2020: Will Market Continue Melt up?Over the last several weeks, my trade setups have been spot on and my returns on the S&P have been outstanding. Check them out in my profile. As usual, I keep my charts super simple because I think markets are complex in and of themselves. Finding a high probability setup without all those noisy indicators (MACD, Volume, Moving Averages, and all the other ones I don't even know about) and complicated theories (like Elliot Wave) is what I do by looking at buying off support during an uptrend and selling off resistance during a downtrend. That's simple and easy to learn and it helps me find good trade setups. This week I'm looking really only for long setups (trade 1 & trade 2). I put a short opportunity only if the strong support at the bottom is retested and fails (I'm not anticipating but I left it there for awareness). We are in a strong uptrend/melt up, so I'm not looking for a sell unless some major support breaks. I also don't try to predicate where the market's will go. I look for trades on both sides and enter trades based on what the market gives me. I have some bias but this helps to keep them in check. This week will probably continue to see the volatility and whiplash we have been seeing. I don't think that will be a surprise. However, here is something I think people forget. When price tries many times to break above a strong resistance, breaks through finally and then takes off without looking back, 9 times out of 10, price comes back to the breakout area for a retest. When does price do it? That's the hardest question to answer because market makers will do it when it's least expected and may wait until price goes so far past the breakout that people forget and think we will not come back. I'm 99% sure the broken strong resistance area will be retested. This is my trade setup #1. If price this week comes back to retest that area and resumes off it, that's a strong buy. Otherwise breaking above all time highs with a retest and resumption is another high probability setup in case you miss trade setup #1 or price keeps going up without looking back. But caution if price doesn't look back, that at some point in the future, price will most likely come back to that breakout area. So always be sure to take profits along the way. Good luck and be careful out there. The market makers are really trying hard to screw both sides lately (even more than usual) Remember when trading: "When it feels really wrong, it's probably right. And when it feels really right, it's probably wrong."
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
8
BTCUSD looks heavy at this top area bringing in a buy-on-dip oppThe BTCUSD crypto looks top-heavy in the latest daily moves. I'm fundamentally long using options as my preferred strategy for entry and exit. But, it looks as if there is a lack of momentum going for the $12k level. Using options as my strategy allows me to continuously profit from micro-moves up and down as the crypto continues to waver. #BTC #BTCUSD #Cryptocurrency With the amount of money created by the Federal Government, however, the fundamentals of Bitcoin will kick in and the currency will ultimately push upwards.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ByDHTaylor
1