AUDUSD - Inflation in Australia, under control?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bearish channel. In case of an upward correction due to the release of today's economic data, we can see a supply zone and sell within that zone with a suitable risk reward.
Yesterday, China urged the United States to change its stance on Taiwan’s independence, asking it to clearly state “we oppose Taiwan independence” instead of “we do not support Taiwan independence.” The United States, however, refused to make this change and continues to maintain informal relations with Taiwan, providing support and military supplies to the island.
Additionally, reports indicate that China’s top legislative body is reviewing a new financial package valued at over 10 trillion yuan, likely to be announced on November 8. China plans to raise 10 trillion yuan in new debt over the coming years through special treasury and local government bonds. This financial package includes 6 trillion yuan to mitigate local government debt risks and up to 4 trillion yuan for purchasing idle lands and properties.
Should Donald Trump win the U.S. presidential election, China may unveil an even stronger financial package. Moreover, China is planning to issue over $1.4 trillion in additional debt in the coming years.
A poll by Ipsos shows that the popularity gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump among registered voters has narrowed to one percentage point, with Harris at 44% support, just one percent ahead of Trump at 43%.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has predicted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at least once more in 2024. He also remarked that the decline in U.S. interest rates will be less than people expect.
Australia’s inflation data largely met expectations and was insufficient to prompt any change in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate decision. Annual inflation for the third quarter stood at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9%. The monthly rate was 2.1%, with the total inflation at 2.8%.
This annual inflation rate is the lowest since early 2021; however, core inflation remains above the RBA’s 2-3% target. The reduction in annual inflation is mainly due to government subsidies and lower gasoline prices, although service inflation remains high.
The RBA will hold a meeting on November 4-5, and given these figures, no rate cut is expected during this session. The final meeting will be on December 9-10, and no rate cut is anticipated for that session either. February remains the anticipated timeframe for analysts, though if the labor market remains strong and core inflation is high, a rate cut may be delayed until April or May.
Stimulus
USDCNY | Market outlook
The USD/CNY strengthened on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over a weak Chinese economy put pressure on the Yuan.
Recent data from China revealed that manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low in August, while growth in new home prices also slowed during the same period.
Additionally, the property sector has yet to respond positively to Beijing's series of stimulus measures, continuing to drag down the overall economy.
China Property Stimulus to Boost Aus200 IndexThe recent announcement of a stimulus package by the Chinese government to boost the property sector is expected to have a positive impact on the Australian stock market, particularly the Aus200 index. The stimulus package includes measures such as lower down payments for home purchases and tax breaks for developers. These measures are expected to increase demand for property in China, which will in turn benefit Australian companies that export goods and services to the Chinese market.
In addition, the stimulus package is also expected to boost the Chinese economy, which is Australia's largest trading partner. A stronger Chinese economy will mean more demand for Australian goods and services, which will support corporate profits and earnings growth. As a result, the Aus200 index is expected to rise in the coming months.
Of course, there are also some risks associated with the China property stimulus. If the stimulus is too successful, it could lead to an overheating of the Chinese economy and a resurgence of inflation. This would be negative for Australian companies that export to China, as it would make their goods and services less competitive. However, at this stage, it appears that the risks are outweighed by the potential rewards.
Overall, the China property stimulus is a positive development for the Australian stock market. The stimulus is expected to boost demand for Australian goods and services, support corporate profits and earnings growth, and lift the Aus200 index.
Irrational market is about to endXETR:DAX
The macro condition is continuously deteriorating. Record braking inflation across the Euro Area, worsening supply chain issues, declining PMIs and lower consumer confidence. It's a non-stop barrage of negative news. Surprisingly enough, though, the indices have been having a great time.
But the last ray of light is about to be clouded with the ECB meeting looming this week. DAX is about to experience its first significant decline after a couple of weeks of resilient pumping.
As for technical analysis, we can observe a pretty clear double top forming at the ~14600 level, lowering volume and an exhaustion candle today - all pointing towards a reversal. Be wary of another low volume pump tomorrow but overall, expect a red weekly candle.
S&P500 26.5% drop incoming? I am seeing the start of a possible textbook head and shoulders pattern on the futures chart. If we have a blood bath next week it could just be the start of the pain. Especially if we end the quarter badly (March 31st).
There are a lot of fundamental reasons we should be cautious in this market. Europe is seeing war on their doorstep. China is seeing massive instability in their housing market. US bonds (the blood of the financial world) are not catching bids. US banks may soon stop lending based on the yield curve, which will significantly effect the average American housing market.
My long term buying target will be staged at the late 2019 early 2020 high if we break down hard from here. I will begin laddering in when we get within 5% of 2019 high.
The next large drop in the market will see more stimulus. I am expecting 50-100T in stimulus is needed to keep this market even remotely stable in the next drop. This may be the final hurrah of the US stock market before a long bear market. Commodities are all breaking out which shows money is beginning to rotate.
We are playing in a high volatility market. Any leverage is a huge risk and should be done with the utmost care.
S&P vs OilToday we have a very simple idea. When to invest in S&P 500 vs Oil.
The white centerline is the center of the logarithmic price distribution.
The red line at the top is +2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of Oil will put the price here.
The green line is the opposite, -2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of the S&P will put the price here.
In general, oil has gotten cheaper over the last 125 years compared to the S&P, hence the overall downtrend.
I've put some historical events in the chart to portray what might have "caused" the shift, however it's important to note that correlation is not causation, and there are MANY other factors at play here in addition to the events I've listed. There are many events that we must assume we don't know about that have took place. We simply want to observe the results. Besides, the chart doesn't have nearly enough room to post about all events which could have been related :p.
Let's look at the percentage increases in the chart that took place when the price breached the green line, in order to set some future expectations:
Oil vs S&P price increase based on HLC3 candles (average of high, low, close):
1917 to 1921: 760%
1929 to 1949: 480%
1969 to 1980: 1380%
1999 to 2008: 1070%
2020 to now : 420%
If you look at these percentages increases, one might conclude that we might be near the top. However, we breached far below the -2 stdev line, and momentum has reversed sharply. Not only that, upward momentum in this area tends to carry us PAST the centerline (white line) historically speaking. So, expecting this to be the top is quite generous, especially if you consider that the price of oil was below 0 for the first time ever in 2020! In my opinion, it's not crazy to think we could go 3-4x from here, to 0.75 or greater, especially if you consider that OPEC has no plans to increase production, which produces some of the cheapest oil on Earth.
This chart only covers events like today, where we are recovering from a -3 stdev event, and does not cover the inverse scenario of where the S&P recovers. I feel like that deserves a whole other chart as I didn't want to make it look too crowded.
Thanks for taking a look and don't forget to hedge your bets!
Bitcoin Death Cross Scenarios$BTC closed Jan 6th Daily with a bearish engulfing candle, providing indication that selling momentum remains strong.
Unable to sustain long-term mid-channel as support, increasing likelihood of 100 EMA falling below the 200 EMA for an impending "death cross" in near future.
Bearish structures continue, double tops, head & shoulders losing neckline support, Lindsay's 3 Peaks & Domed House.
Overall, macroeconomic picture shows markets are overheated with Fed communicating multiple rate hikes are imminent. Market indicators (M2, PPI, CPI, Rev Repo, etc.) clearly reflect bumpy road ahead.
Bitcoin support levels to watch - Going to $38k
Potential to continue downwards for support at:
1. Best Case: $35k
2. Likely Case: $30k
3. Worst Case: $19k
4. Candle wick low for worst case is potential of $12k to $16k
Invalidation scenarios:
1. Unlikely: Continued QE and "stimulus" delaying an overall major market correction
2. Possible: Market sentiment changes and BTC is considered a hedge to protect principal
3. Reversal: Bitcoin Spot ETF or other catalyst causing inflow of new money or broader institutional buy-in.
Stimmy for Jimmy - NyetManchin plays Foosball again.
$2 Trillion in Stimmy is a solid "Sorry, but no."
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin said Sunday he cannot
back his party’s signature $2 trillion social and environment bill, seemingly
dealing a fatal blow to President Joe Biden’s leading domestic initiative heading
into an election year when Democrats’ narrow hold on Congress was already in peril.
Manchin told “Fox News Sunday” that he always has made clear he had reservations
about the bill and that now, after five-and-half months of discussions and negotiations,
“I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation.”
The White House had no immediate comment. Biden was spending the weekend in
Wilmington, Delaware.
The legislation’s apparent collapse is sure to deepen the bitter ideological divisions
within the Democratic Party between progressives and moderates. That would call into
question whether Democrats will be able to join together behind any substantial legislation
before the November congressional elections. And it adds a note of chaos just as Democrats
need to demonstrate accomplishments and show a united front before the fall campaign.
________________________________________________________________
Lumps of Coal - Yellen the Fellon won't be squeaking about Defcits unless
she prefers pitchforks and Biden is now the Zombie President - 110%.
The Raven and his Ilk are, as most are all Central Banks around the Globe
being instructed to withdraw Liquidity at an increasing rate.
__________________________________________________________________
Political unrest, Social unrest - assured by Mid - 2022
Japanese yen higher despite weak CPIThe Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 113.93, down 0.28% on the day.
Japan's CPI edged up by 0.1% y/y in October, identical to the September gain. Higher energy costs were behind the increase, which would have been higher if not for a sharp drop in mobile phone fees. These inflation figures are certainly much more subdued than what we're seeing in the US and the UK, where inflation has become a hot issue and is affecting monetary policy. Still, rising fuel prices is a major concern for consumers and businesses, and the government's new economic package is expected to provide some relief. Many businesses have been hit hard by cost pressures, due to the weak yen, supply chain disruptions and high commodity prices. This hasn't translated into high inflation, as most firms are reluctant to pass on these costs to consumers.
The Japanese yen remains under pressure and is on target for the dubious honour of being the worst-performing G-10 currency in 2021. The increased likelihood of higher US rates and the surge in oil prices have contributed to the weak yen, which climbed close to the 115 level this week. The yen is extremely sensitive to the USD/JPY rate differential, and a rise in US rates could push the yen above the 120 level.
With inflation soaring in the US and the UK, the Fed and BoE are under pressure to tighten policy. There are growing calls for the Fed to accelerate its tapering and the BoE may raise rates next month. It's a completely different story in Japan, where inflation remains subdued. On Friday, the government unveiled a USD 490 billion stimulus plan, the largest ever in the country's history. The government is hoping that the plan will kick-start the lethargic Japanese economy.
There is resistance at 115.02 and 116.15
USD/JPY is testing support at 114.58. This is followed by support at 113.01
$CARV: The S in ESG & “Transitory Inflation”Environmental, social and governance (ESG) integration is Blackrock’s practice of incorporating ESG information into decisions to help enhance risk-adjusted returns and I believe this 20 level here represents something significant. Following this ESG thesis one could expect a stock to rank highly in the social category, however, it doesn’t come without some significant risks and those risks may be why we find ourselves underneath this highly liquid area. Those risks come from inflation and crypto. If these macro inflation or crypto trends continue to play out this could mean the Fed has lost control of inflation which then will lead to the $DXY index rejecting 95 in a meaningful way. These forces could be devastating for Carver’s value as their customers lose purchasing power. However, if the Fed moves on with raising rates and the dollar rises back through the aforementioned 95 level, this could lead to tremendous benefits out of Washington in the future. In short, watch the 20 level in CARV and $DXY 95 over the following weeks / months to see which way the market will decide to push this stock
SPY overlay China's 2015 retail boom-bust - In 2015 China had a retail boom-bust 🔥
- It did not take long for retail to find out who
was going to hold that bag 💰
- Covid, tech, and monetary policy in the US have conspired
to create another retail frenzy ⛈
- I attempt to overlay 2015's fundamentals, technicals, and psychology
to the current scenario 🏹
- Just a little observation and thought-experiment 💚
- Have fun out there!
someone is going to find that top 😬
TRQ Small Cap Copper, Copper on the cusp of a New All Time HighThe electrification of America and the world is going to require huge amounts of copper. New all-time highs should be expected.
Copper resources are likely going to become highly valued throughout this decade as more and more copper is needed to overhaul the energy and infrastructure grid.
#Bitcoin: The On-going Cycle of Stimulus & FUDs -18.JUN.2021#Bitcoin: The On-going Cycle of Stimulus & FUDs as on 18.JUN.2021
Jack Dorsey notes lobbying efforts to get Ethiopian gov't to embrace BTC
Jerome Powell "Fed would move forward its timeline and schedule two interest rate hikes in 2023"
Elon Musk Counters Kraken CEO On Bitcoin Being 'Greener' Than Critics Say
#Bitcoin: The On-going Cycle of Stimulus & FUDs-18.JUN.2021#Bitcoin: The On-going Cycle of Stimulus & FUDs as on 18.JUN.2021
Jack Dorsey notes lobbying efforts to get Ethiopian gov't to embrace BTC
Jerome Powell "Fed would move forward its timeline and schedule two interest rate hikes in 2023"
Elon Musk Counters Kraken CEO On Bitcoin Being 'Greener' Than Critics Say
#Bitcoin: The On-going Cycle of Stimulus & FUDs-13.JUN.2021Bitcoin: The On-going Cycle of Stimulus & FUDs as on 13.JUN.2021
China's cryptocurrency-mining crackdown spreads to Yunnan
Bitcoin’s Taproot Upgrade Gets Its 90% Mandate
Bill banning crypto mining for 3 years dies in NY state assembly
Musk Says Tesla to Use Bitcoin Transactions When Mining Cleaner
Stimulus - A ray of hope for tourism industry.MHRIL is a popular hotel company operating in India. The stock reached its all time high in 2017 and is consistently in a downtrend since then. After consolidating below the significant zone the stock witnessed the great covid 19 fall. After the recently announced stimulus package the stock has shown a fresh breakout of significant zone. Buying opportunity is seen if the retest is successful and covid 19 restrictions are further eased.
**DYOR**
CX CEMEX Commodity Infrastructure Stimulus IdeaJust sharing a series of investing ideas that interest me. This is not investment advice or licensed research.
CX has moved quite a bit off of its cycle low but still maintains quite a bit of upside, I think it has multi-bagger potential.
Incoming Infrastructure stimulus will be between $4 and $10 trillion just in 2021 alone.
ORNUSDT PT $15.50This rally should start an uptrend
EMA x SMA, 4H stoch bottom, Eth holding support, Btc consolidation, and SEC Btc ETF push back till summer along with inflation expectations and rate hike talks. Look to see more retail in Altcoins and Institutions horde btc as much as possible.